Thursday, November 15, 2018

Update: Hand recount to begin tomorrow in Florida

As expected, Florida election officials were given official notice of the antiquated hand recount of the same ballots already counted now twice by machine tallies. Florida law is unusual and stupid. There is really no reason to do a machine recount, when you already know it will be followed by a manual "hand" recount.

In this case (where the lead was under 0.25%), they should have immediately ordered the hand recount, which likely would have been completed by now.  If I didn't know any better, I would swear that the State of Florida simply enjoys a good recounting, after another recounting.

Is this Joe from impractical jokers? 

Either way, given the machine votes didn't help Nelson, the hand recounts are not going to help him dig out of a 12,600 vote lead. They needed to find uncounted ballots or have had some election night foul up involving thousands of votes. Signature mismatches, provisional ballots, and under/over votes are not going to cut it.

The truth is that even if everyone who had a mismatched signature came in and corrected by Saturday, it wouldn't help, because the Judges ruling was inclusive to a select number of these ballots. Even with that, the chances are that only a small percentage of these votes will be corrected and counted.

Same holds true for those undervotes and overvotes. The reality is that the lion's share of the undervotes and overvotes are actually undervotes and overvotes. They will be missing a vote for that race or they will have filled in two choices. There are no hanging chads, or other questionable ballots to rule on. You would be lucky if you could garner voter intent for 10% of these votes.

By the same token, most valid provisional ballots would have been counted already. If they were not counted in the initial vote tallies, they certainly they would have been included in the machine recounts. There is literally no reason to still be "wondering" about a provisional ballot eight days after an election.

Lastly, there is no reason to believe that any new votes that come from mismatched signatures, under/over votes, or provisional ballots will fall heavily to one candidate or the other. The largest statewide recount to ever be overturned was here in Minnesota, where Al Franken came back from a 500 vote deficit and won by about 100 votes. But that included several issues with extra ballots, missing ballots, and a slew of other unusual events and legal rulings that allowed that margin to move 600 votes in one direction. It certainly wasn't just from recounting the ballots.

Nelson overcoming a 12,600 vote deficit?  The Oakland Raiders have a better chance of winning the Super Bowl.

43 comments:

Myballs said...

And hand recounts scream human error...or worse.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Hanging flags gave us George Bush

C.H. Truth said...

Roger - the fact that more people in Florida cast legal votes for Bush than did for Gore gave us President Bush.

James said...

Democrats Set to Complete Sweep of Orange County Seats

The latest vote tabulations show that Gil Cisneros (D) leapfrogged Young Kim (R) to take a 941-vote lead in the battle for California’s 39th district, erasing a 3,900-vote advantage that Kim held election night, the Orange County Register reports.

“Democrats now lead in every Orange County congressional race and stand positioned to sweep Republicans from power in all four Orange County GOP-held seats the party targeted this election… The historic shift has shocked the county’s Republican leadership, which as recently as 2017 insisted none of the area’s GOP House seats were in danger of flipping.”

James said...

Democrats Pick Off Another GOP Seat In California

“Katie Porter (D) captured a Republican-held U.S. House seat in the heart of what once was Southern California’s Reagan country, extending a rout of the state’s GOP House delegation that might not be over,” the AP reports.

“Porter’s upset in Orange County is a sign of changing times in a region once known nationally as a GOP fortress.

“Porter, a law professor and protege of Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), defeated Rep. Mimi Walters (R-CA), who was re-elected in a walkover just two years ago in the 45th District.”

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

I moved to Orange County in 87. It was as conservative as any where.

When I put up signs supporting a Democratic candidate I had people who drove by flipped me off.

Orange County gave Reagan the electoral college victory in California.

anonymous said...

the fact that more people in Florida cast legal votes for Bush than did for Gore gave us President Bush.

That fact has never been proven little Scotty.....Suggest your source of bullshit be deleted.....

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

GOP Judge Said There's NO VOTER FRAUD AND KICKED RICK SCOTT CASE OUT OF COURT!💙😂😂💙

Anonymous said...

Anyone seen Roger, since he announced he was again leaving this blog?

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Orange County has become 100percent Democrat in the house of Representatives.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

I never said that. I said that I wasn't going to waste my time on a specific topic.

anonymous said...

Orange County has become 100percent Democrat in the house of Representatives.

New England 22 of 22 seats blue

11 out of 12 senators blue....

Our esteemed host called Collins seat safe......yeah sure, Lil Scotty.....safe for what?????? Lose???

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

I had a lot going on. I didn't want to se the Republican Trumpets for Trump because he is fucking losing it.

People are changing clothes and voting again and again and again. He actually said that.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Unless the Democrats fuck it up, we will see a complete reversal in the senate, house and White House in 2020.

Commonsense said...

That fact has never been proven little Scotty..

You mean except for the fact that they actually counted the votes. Over and over again.

Anonymous said...

Blogger Roger Amick said...

Unless the Democrats fuck it up, we will see a complete reversal in the senate, house and White House in 2020.



by a kerry-esque landslide and everything.

anonymous said...

r the fact that they actually counted the votes. Over and over again.

The Scotus stopped the count asshole....Amazing how shitty your memory is...

https://www.nytimes.com/2000/12/10/politics/supreme-court-split-54-halts-florida-count-in-blow-to-gore.html

You really are the dumbest fuck posting here....

Commonsense said...

Actually hand recount is a misnomer. They are only going to count any ballot that the machine couldn't count and add it to the machine totals. (that's why they order a machine recount even though everybody knew the senate race was going to a hand recount)

At that point all had ballots are inspected to "devine voter intent".

anonymous said...

Actually hand recount is a misnomer

Funny cramps, every time your ass gets kicked , you change the subject to save face....as predictable as trump lying....LOLOLOLO

Anonymous said...

2020.
Presidential race.
Republicans Trump
Democrats 34 maybe more that will cat fight each other.

anonymous said...

maybe more that will cat fight each other.

As they get donnie's tax returns and make his spastic son very uncomfortable.....

Commonsense said...

The Scotus stopped the count asshole...

Because it was 56 days from the election, the vote was already recounted 6 times and the electoral college was about to meet.

It was a mess largely of the courts own creation. Starting with the fact that they allowed Gore to cherrypick counties to recount and not do a statewide recount. This led to 14th amendment issues.

And which counties did Gore cherrypicked? You got it. Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties.

Sooner or later you have to stop counting and accept the results of an election or the election never ends.

Anonymous said...

Hillary?
Avvinaghty?
Biden?
Or this pos
"Ocasio-Cortez claims she can't afford DC apartment, but records show she has at least $15,000 in savings."

Anonymous said...

"Sooner or later you have to stop counting and accept the results.."

The left is still believe "W" stole the election.

He'll, al gore still believes it.

anonymous said...

Hope trump starts talking how great the tax cuts were....all they have done was create massive new debt and complete disappointment

Last week’s blue wave means that Donald Trump will go into the 2020 election with only one major legislative achievement: a big tax cut for corporations and the wealthy. Still, that tax cut was supposed to accomplish big things. Republicans thought it would give them a big electoral boost, and they predicted dramatic economic gains. What they got instead, however, was a big fizzle.

The political payoff, of course, never arrived. And the economic results have been disappointing. True, we’ve had two quarters of fairly fast economic growth, but such growth spurts are fairly common — there was a substantially bigger spurt in 2014, and hardly anyone noticed. And this growth was driven largely by consumer spending and, surprise, government spending, which wasn’t what the tax cutters promised.

Meanwhile, there’s no sign of the vast investment boom the law’s backers promised. Corporations have used the tax cut’s proceeds largely to buy back their own stock rather than to add jobs and expand capacity.

But why have the tax cut’s impacts been so minimal? Leave aside the glitch-filled changes in individual taxes, which will keep accountants busy for years; the core of the bill was a huge cut in corporate taxes. Why hasn’t this done more to increase investment?


The answer, I’d argue, is that business decisions are a lot less sensitive to financial incentives — including tax rates — than conservatives claim. And appreciating that reality doesn’t just undermine the case for the Trump tax cut. It undermines Republican economic doctrine as a whole.

About business decisions: It’s a dirty little secret of monetary analysis that changes in interest rates affect the economy mainly through their effect on the housing market and the international value of the dollar (which in turn affects the competitiveness of U.S. goods on world markets). Any direct effect on business investment is so small that it’s hard even to see it in the data. What drives such investment is, instead, perceptions about market demand.

Anonymous said...

Presidents Tax Returns.

That is an issue how?.


anonymous said...

The left is still believe "W" stole the election.

Nothing to believe.....facts...why don't you go fuck your stinking goat, asshole

anonymous said...

she can't afford DC apartment, but records show she has at least $15,000 in savings."

You can't even afford to heat your home without free fire wood....asshole

Anonymous said...

Tax cut huge portion begins Jan 1, 2019. When 4.5 million additional job holders join the breast of US income producers in New higher deductions.

Anonymous said...

Mr. Dennis, I enjoy your posts for the lack of reality.

anonymous said...

When 4.5 million additional job holders join the breast of US income producers in New higher deductions.

BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!! More trump failure, asshole...Did you see the latest projections for GDP.....very disappointing considering how much debt is being created for everyone!!!

Anonymous said...

See CS. Mr Rogers and Mr. Dennis confirm they are never ever going to be over the "W" win .

Hillary was cheated too. The Russians -Trump thief.

anonymous said...

You want reality......trump is a complete loser, just like you....Find work yet so you can heat your home??????

anonymous said...

never ever going to be over the "W" win .

Got over that years ago goat fucker....just one problem,,,, like trump, he really lost the vote count.....but scotus interfered and legislated from the bench..

Anonymous said...

Mr. Dennis, please keep going. It only exposes how little you know about economics/finance.

anonymous said...

Hillary was cheated too.

How do you figure that goat fucker....Just because she had 3 million more votes didn't matter, just like gore and his popular vote victory....

Anonymous said...

So to be clear Mr Dennis, this was not your post.

"The left is still believe "W" stole the election.

Nothing to believe.....facts.."

Good to know because that was stupid.

anonymous said...

you know about economics/finance.


Seems rather funny you are the one who can't heat his own hovel claims another victory...>TOOOOO FUCKING FUNNT!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Oh wait, it was you.

To explain the rules of a presidential election is unwarranted because you are simply unable to learn.

Note, the same rules apply again in 2020.

Anonymous said...

I heat my home with wood with a propane central heater.
We have for over 30 years. We have been over this, Mr Dennis unable to retain facts , again.so sad.

Anonymous said...

The left is still believe "W" stole the election.

Your post asshole 6:25....your short term memory is that shitty???? No wonder why you are broke....LOLOLOL

anonymous said...

We have for over 30 year

IOW's I've been broke for 30 years....maybe I'll set up a go fund be page for a lonely goat fucker...

Anonymous said...

Democratic Party’s socialist wunderkind Cortez was bitch slapped by Speaker Nancy Polosi.