Alternate Title: President to trigger the left by not being interested (again) in winning the popular vote
Let's start with the reality that Donald Trump's chances of winning the Electoral College and being reelected to a second term is going to be much, much higher than his chances of winning the popular vote.
Let's also start with the reminder that popular vote accounts for nada. Zilch. Squat.
If you want to pay attention to how the 2020 election might be shaking out, you need to focus on the individual state polling and pretty much ignore the popular vote polling (especially those commissioned by anyone in the MSM).
Over the past few days there has been a ton of 2020 polling coming out. I strongly suspect that we will be overwhelmed with polling from now until next November.
On the national level, I saw an Emerson poll showing the President losing to every listed Democrat (with the exception of Harris) in the popular vote. He was down anywhere from around ten points (to Biden) to two points (Klobuchar, Booker, Sanders). This poll is consistent with most of the national popular vote polls I have seen.
But I also saw state polling in three battleground states (Iowa, Arizona, North Carolina) where the President was leading every candidate fairly comfortably (with the exception of Biden, who seems to poll consistently higher than the others).
Now the President winning Iowa, Arizona, and North Carolina would not guarantee him any victory. But North Carolina and Iowa were states that Barack Obama won at least once, and many Democrats are hoping to pull Arizona into the fold as a future Battleground state. The key states will likely be the same ones they always are, Florida, Colorado, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan.
The bottom line is that the President showed us in 2016 that he has little interest in running a National Campaign that might help him in the popular vote. He was (in 2016) and can be expected to be (in 2020) very focused on the States he feels he needs to win to garner his reelection. That needs to be kept in mind at all times when assessing his 2020 chances.
46 comments:
yeah, but what the fuck do you know???
all the bestest pollsters like 538 nate and huff po had queenie winning the popular vote and she did!!!
so there!!!
you just have stage 11 trumpism and you're in denial, scott.
Trump doing very well with minorities. Mostly because of jobs. But this is why we're now getting so many stories on race. Left trying to turn those voters against trump.
But this is why we're now getting so many stories on race. Left trying to turn those voters against trump.
and what are all those race stories?
LIES.
Don't be fooled by the media polling showing Trump losing to Democratic field...
America was already fooled once by the asshole in chief......a little early for getting brassy Lil Scotty......usually those predictions fall the most....LOLOL sure will be an interesting time when and if the mueller report is actually released.....Me thinks it will be criminal conspiracy......LOLOL!!!!
Of course the whore monger in chief will defend his fellow whore monger rich guy friend who can only get laid by paying for it....So sad....so much money and no where to put his dick other than his hand.....BWAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!
New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft and President Donald Trump have a longstanding friendship.
Kraft attended a campaign donor dinner for Trump right before Trump’s inauguration. The Patriots made Trump a Super Bowl ring for their visit to the White House in 2017. They’ve never shied away from acknowledging their relationship.
That’s why Trump was stunned like everyone else at Kraft’s arrest on Friday as part of a prostitution sting. Kraft was arrested on charges of soliciting prostitution in Florida.
Trump, via Monica Alba of NBC News and Chris Cillizza of CNN, addressed his friend Kraft’s arrest but gave the Patriots owner the benefit of the doubt.
Another oops by your idiot in chief....
Trump border wall: Third of Pentagon money president plans to use for wall is already spent, officals say
The Independent Tom Embury-Dennis,The Independent 8 hours ago
Up to a third of the $6.7bn (£5.2bn) in Pentagon funds Donald Trump has identified to spend on a US-Mexico border wall has already been spent, officials have revealed.
During his emergency powers declaration last month, the US president announced he would divert billions of dollars from other Department of Defense projects towards the wall, in order to circumvent Congress.
It included $3.6bn (£2.8bn) in unspent military construction money, as well as $2.5bn (£1.9bn) in counterdrug funds and $600m (£462m) from an asset forfeiture account – the latter two not dependent on the emergency delaration.
But a spokesperson for the House appropriations committee told the Congressional Quartely (CQ) magazine that only $85m (£65m) remains in the counterdrug account, wiping out more than $2.4bn Mr Trump intended for the wall.
In order to recoup that money, the Pentagon is planning to redirect money from other programmes in order to bring the counterdrug account back up to $2.5bn, so that Mr Trump can then move it again into border wall funding.
“The Department would need to reprogramme additional funding into the account to reach the up to $2.5 billion that may be required for border security support,” Defense Department spokesman Christopher Sherwood told CQ.
Roger, gets yet another Economic , Geo-political issue(s) wrong.
"Stocks closed higher Friday, with the Dow logging its longest weekly winning streak in over two decades, thanks to optimism over U.S.-China trade talks..."
The wild card in this game is the results of the investigation into the Russian government interference in support of the candidate Trump and his staff.
Kamala Harris has the best chance of delivering the swing state of North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida.
But 19 months out, so many things can change. If she gets the African American voters in the same numbers of Obama even if Georgia it might be very interesting.
But, If the economy continues on the current path, any Democratic candidate will have a very tough time.
But I still know one thing for sure, is this President is a wild card. And there is a very remote remarkable possibility of impeachment.
And Scott is ignoring the fact that the educated women of all races, even in the suburbs may be more motivated to get out and vote Democratic again Trump.
The Patriots may not have a victory party at the White House this year!
The Patriots may not have a victory party at the White House this year!
Maybe they can have a hooker get together at the WH instead.....
Let's also start with the reminder that popular vote accounts for nada. Zilch. Squat.
I have very little hope that this year the Democratic candidate comes out with the overturning the electoral college with a Constitutional amendment to make the Presidential election is determined by the popular vote.
But it won't happen. Unless Trump wins in the electoral college and again loses the popular vote.
Maybe they will have a pussy grabbing party!
Is on her back Harris still going to win the Socialist Party Nomination.
Wait, what?
Roger , flip flop.
"But, If the economy continues on the current path, any Democratic candidate will have a very tough time."
Omg, is it change the script day?
"Russian government interference ".
What happen to Trump is directly colluding with Putin?
Ok, damn, too much fun.
Verbatim
"even in the suburbs may be more motivated to get out and vote Democratic again Trump."
Drunk .CA With a bleeding Mangina.
Kamala Harris has the best chance of delivering the swing state of North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida.
What is that chance, like 1%?
No way heels up Harris wins Florida and she's sure as hell not going to win Georgia.
She is going to sleep her way thru Florida.
Roger is giving us more wishful thinking. The country isn't interested in having an ultra liberal California bigot as president. And all those trump democrats still like him because they're working and getting raises as well. Its all about the jobs.
Rog...
You get mad when Trump follows the law, but you are thinking some Presidential candidate can campaign on overturning the Electoral College?
Poor old Rog will be really demoralized when Trump wins the electoral and popular vote.
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February 22, 2019 | by Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski
If the 2020 election were today, Trump would lose
The 2020 election is 620 days away. Which, according to new state-by-state polling data from Gallup, is a very good thing for President Donald Trump.
The data paints a simple but ominous picture for Trump: If the presidential election were held today, he would almost certainly lose. Here's the key insight from the Gallup data:
"Although much can change between now and Election Day 2020, a job approval rating of 50% or higher would presumably put Trump in good position to win a state in the presidential election. The 17 states with 50%+ approval ratings account for a combined total of 102 electoral votes. In contrast, the states in which Trump has an approval rating below 40% account for 201 electoral votes.
"In order to get to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency, Trump would have to win all but one or two of the states in which his 2018 approval rating was between 41% and 49%."
Which puts a pretty fine point on the challenge facing Trump and his 2020 campaign team between now and November 3. But to put an even FINER point on it -- here are just a sampling of the states where Trump's approval rating is currently below 49%: Texas (41%), Pennsylvania (42%), Michigan (42%) and Florida (43%). Those four states have 103 electoral votes between them. And Trump won ALL of them in 2016.
The fundamental problem that the Gallup data points to is that Trump's approval rating is strongest in small-population states. Of the 10 states where Gallup found Trump's approval was the highest in 2018, the one with the most electoral votes is Tennessee, with 11. Those 10 states have a combined 57 electoral votes. (The 10 states where Trump is the least popular in the Gallup numbers have a total of 173 electoral votes.)
Now. Approval rating is obviously not purely predictive of vote. After all, Trump won the 2016 election even though only 38% of voters viewed him favorably, according to exit polling. But if you are Trump, these numbers have to worry you. It suggests he has LOTS of work to do in the next 620 days.
The Point: Predicting whether Donald Trump can win is a dicey proposition, as he proved in 2016. But these poll numbers paint a relatively grim outlook for the incumbent to win a second term.
Yeah the enemy of the people treasonous free press
Pennsylvania (42%), Michigan (42%) and Florida (43%).
Any Democratic candidate will most likely carry these states Trump won in 2016. Wisconsin are even less likely to vote for Trump.
Fascinating
Jamie Seidelnews.com.au
The scenario is scarily believable: It’s November 2020. President Trump has just lost the election. He blames voter fraud. He blames ‘deep state’ interference. He blames illegal immigrants. He refuses to step down. Riots and demonstrations erupt across the divided United States …
FAR fetched?
The sabre-rattling is getting louder. Governors. Judges. Preachers. Politicians. All are ramping-up the rhetoric, pushing the deep political divide within the United States towards a second Civil War.
Social scientists put aged, white male evangelical populations in one corner. The other holds young, highly educated women of colour. In between are countless pockets of outraged interest groups, all fixated on their own fears.
“Almost every cultural and social institution — universities, the public schools, the NFL, the Oscars, the Tonys, the Grammys, late-night television, public restaurants, coffee shops, movies, TV, stand-up comedy — has been not just politicised but also weaponised,” warns Hoover Institution historian Dr Victor Hanson.
“(The US stands) at the brink of a veritable civil war”.
Design: Steve Grice
Design: Steve Grice
THE FOREVER WAR
The first US Civil War began in April 1861.
The cultural divide behind this clash never went away.
It was a fight over slavery. But it was also a fight over religious and political divides.
It’s a fight still being fought out in social media, in rallies and in political conventions.
Here’s one example, from many.
Former US marine and now talk-show host Jesse Kelley has stated: “It’s time for the United States to divorce before things get dangerous”.
“There is simply no common ground with the Left anymore,” he writes. “We are now the couple screaming at each other all night, every night as the kids hide in their room …
“It does not have to be this way. There is a difficult, but ultimately peaceful path that ends with everyone getting most of what they want. We divide the nation in two.”
It’s a view getting some serious attention: Governors, Senators, Representatives, Preachers ... all are making similar calls. South Carolina members of parliament have proposed a bill giving that state the power to secede.
But isn’t it all just a storm in a teacup?
Political wannabes playing to their individual ‘teams’?
Vocal minorities drowning out the silent masses?
Donald Trump threatened with impeachment and jail time
SEVEN MOUNTAINS: The religious zealots wanting to control the US
Dr Hanson again has his fears: “zealous and sometimes warring tiny minorities can escalate tensions, nullify opposition, and bully the silenced majority to sanction — or at least not object to — violence.”
But Dr Hanson’s Hoover Institution colleague, political scientist Professor Morris Fiorina, is not so worried.
“I am happy to report that the available data provide grounds for feeling much more sanguine about the state of our country,” Professor Fiorina writes.
“Although they are noisy and harmful to our politics, the kinds of people Hanson criticises are many fewer in number than generally believed. They are what political scientists call the political class, a small minority of self-appointed activists, demonstrators, donors, partisan media commentators and office-seekers. Given that such people are the public face of politics, many Americans understandably take them as representative, but they are statistically abnormal — what we call “outliers.”
If you really believe that then go the Vegas and bet your double-wide on Harris or Sanders. At 10 to 1 odds you should clean up. (Trump is at 3 to 2 and is the favorite)
ANGRY PEOPLE
The social cauldron is continuously being stirred. Facts are manipulated. Those holding differences of opinion are labelled ‘mortal enemies’. "The economy of the country " "the failing New York Times"
It’s an environment inflaming threats and fear.
Politicians seeking to grab attention through quick one-liners are no help.
Having fun in your paranoid fantasy Roger?
There's a red under Roger's bed
and there's a little yellow man in his head
There's a true, blue, inside of Rog
that keeps stoppin him, touchin him, watching him, lovin him...
Paranoia the destroyer!
btw... maybe you can get him impeach for what you think he might do!!
Jamie Seidelnews.com.au
Seriously this guy is not in a mental institution? I think he was waltzing through the outback for far too long.
Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski
So Rog...
A CNN political stooge is using polling to show that Trump cannot win?
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/05/04/rel6b.-.2016.general.pdf
(top line Clinton 54 - Trump 41)
(top line Sanders 56 - Trump 40)
Oh and a year before that
June 26-28, 2015 - Clinton 59% Trump 35%
Yeah... no way he can win.
As I started up the stair
I saw a man who wasn't there
He wasn't there again today
I wish I wish he'd stay away
Roger Amick
Inspired by reports of a ghost of a man roaming the stairs of a haunted house, in Antigonish, Nova Scotia, Canada,[1] the poem was originally part of a play called The Psyco-ed, which Mearns had written for an English class at Harvard University, circa 1899.[2] In 1910, Mearns staged the play with the Plays and Players,
When I came home last night at three,
The man was waiting there for me
But when I looked around the hall,
I couldn't see him there at all!
Go away, go away, don't you come back any more!
Go away, go away, and please don't slam the door...
Last night I saw upon the stair,
A little man who wasn't there,
He wasn't there again today
Oh, how I wish he'd go away...
Stolen by pathological supporter of the minority popular elected President's, drinker of his bathwater.
You strongly support that the President should be reelected by a minority popular vote margin, who again who lied in response to a question about the reelection in North Carolina.
“I condemn any voter fraud of any kind, whether it’s Democrat or Republican,” “But when you look at some of the things that happened in California in particular, when you look at what has happened in Texas with all of those votes that they recently found that were not exactly properly done. I condemn all of it.”
The stories about alleged voting fraud in California and Texas have been debunked. Especially in the alleged voter fraud in Orange county California was completely debunked.
"I'm very happy the my President"
Who again lied twice in two sentences.
But "I'm very happy the my President"
Trumpism stage four brain cancer is incurable.
Get help.
Orange man bad. Orange man bad. Electoral college elected bad Orange man. Electoral college bad. Orange man bad. Orange man bad. Electoral college elected bad Orange man. Electoral college bad. Orange man bad. Orange man bad. Electoral college elected bad Orange man. Electoral college bad. Orange man bad...
minority popular elected President's"
Lol@Roger
Fits Bill Clinton perfectly.
"You strongly support that the President should be reelected by a minority popular vote margin, who again who lied in response to a question..."
Roger.
Say your team puts 9 runners on base , but none cross the plate.
And my team hits only a single home run.
Which team wins the game?
The stories about alleged voting fraud in California and Texas have been debunked. Especially in the alleged voter fraud in Orange county California was completely debunked.
he's calling them as he sees them, as is his right to do. texas is questionable and just because the 'austin soy boy statesman' says there's nothing to see here means little.
and orange county? as stolen as an election can be stolen. you guys were just clever enough to legalize the theft. ballot "harvesting." geezus. imagine that fraud going nationwide.
Trumpism stage four brain cancer is incurable.
Get help.
probably your most concise display of psychological projection in quite some time, rog.
Yeah... no way he can win.
now you would think that after 2016 there's simply no fucking way the imbeciles in the media would make the exact same polling projection mistakes.
no fucking way.
2020 election media: hold my beer.
Stupid is as stupid does.
kim strassel is a damn fine writer -
The collusionists need a "new phase" as signs grow that the special counsel won’t help realize their reveries of a Donald Trump takedown. They had said Mr. Mueller would provide all the answers. Now that it seems they won't like his answers, Democrats and media insist that any report will likely prove "anticlimactic" and "inconclusive." "This is merely the end of Chapter 1," said Renatto Mariotti, a CNN legal "analyst."
Mr. Schiff turned this week to a dependable scribe--the Washington Post's David Ignatius--to lay out the next chapter of the penny dreadful. Mr. Ignatius was the original conduit for the leak about former national security adviser Mike Flynn’s conversations with a Russian ambassador, and the far-fetched claims that Mr. Flynn had violated the Logan Act of 1799. Mr. Schiff has now dictated to Mr. Ignatius a whole new collusion theory. Forget Carter Page, Paul Manafort, George Papadopoulos--whoever. The real Trump-Russia canoodling rests in "Trump's finances." The future president was "doing business with Russia" and "seeking Kremlin help."
So, no apologies. No acknowledgment that Mr. Schiff & Co. for years have pushed fake stories that accused innocent men and women of being Russian agents. No relieved hope that the country might finally put this behind us. Just a smooth transition--using Russia as a hook--into Mr. Trump’s finances. Mueller who?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/schiffting-to-phase-2-of-collusion-11550794762
assholes like schitt guarantee that this thing drags on to 2020, and if trump wins reelection i think it's certain that it drags on through trump's entire second term.
the long term repercussions of the precedents that are being set along the way should prove interesting. i fully expect that another democrat will be elected president in my lifetime, and should a set of republicans choose to start relentlessly fucking with that president on inauguration day, complete with a special counsel and a legion of political hacks charged with destroying that president, i don't want to hear a fucking word from the democrats. not one fucking word.
kim strassel is a damn fine writer -
Opinions are like assholea idiot....She's a fine writer because she has views that meld with yours.......However, even though she's got a screw loose....she is eminently fuckable......LOLOL
Myballs said...
As I started up the stair
I saw a man who wasn't there
He wasn't there again today
I wish I wish he'd stay away
Roger Amick
Brilliant.
Schiff needs to be investigated to the same standards he uses on others.
South Dakota governor says Trump trade wars have 'devastated' the state
By CAITLIN OPRYSKO 02/22/2019 12:04 PM EST
South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem said Friday that President Donald Trump’s trade wars have “devastated” her state, and though she agreed that countries like China were not following fair trade practices, she urged the Trump administration to quickly wrap up its trade talks there.
“South Dakota has been devastated by the trade wars that are going on,” Noem said at POLITICO’s State Solutions Conference, noting that agriculture is “by far” the largest industry in the state. The Republican governor warned that the trade woes of farmers can trickle down to the rest of the state, impacting “every main street business, everybody that has another entity out there that relies on a successful ag industry.”
Some of my family have been devastated by the tarrifs imposed by the President themselves helped to elect.
President Donald Trump has engaged in a tit-for-tat war with U.S. trade partners like China and the European Union, which have levied retaliatory tariffs on major U.S. commodities like soybeans and wheat. The White House has been in talks with China for months over the issue, and faces a self-imposed deadline of next Friday to reach an agreement before tariff rates increase drastically.
Noem allowed that countries like China had engaged in unfair trade practices and said she realized the Trump administration “is trying to rectify that,” but said the clash had gone on too long.
South Dakota farm exports actually increased last year.
Their governor is a drama queen.
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