Friday, May 17, 2019

The problem with the polls...

So I was interested in the latest round of Fox News polls. Contrary to popular belief, Fox News does not do their own polling. Rather they commissions a pollster to do the actual polling (in this case a polling company called Braun Research). So I am not expecting a conservative "bias" simply because the poll is released by Fox News.

Does Sanders really lead by five points?

Fox polled five Democrats against Trump. Biden and Sanders both hold leads against Trump, while the other three (Warren, Harris, Buttigieg) are all basically tied (plus or minus 2%). For purposes of discussion I am looking specifically at the results between Trump and Sanders, where it shows Sanders with a not insignificant lead of five points.

Now checking through a fairly robust cross tabs, you would see that Trump gets a higher percentage of his Republican base than Sanders gets with Democrats. Bernie holds a slight lead with Independents, but over 40% of Independents are either voting for someone else, not voting, or are still undecided. None of this is very surprising, but it also doesn't fit in with the idea of Bernie Sanders basically running away from Trump

Now the one crosstab that hit home with me (due the binary nature) was in relation to the 2016 voters. Trump is garnering 90% of those who voted for him in 2016, while Sanders is only getting 82% of those who voted for Clinton. Moreover, only 3% of those 2016 Clinton voters are still undecided. The rest have made up their minds to vote for Trump, a third Party candidate, or simply stay home. Each picks up a small amount of the other voters. 6% of 2016 Trump supporters would vote for Sanders, while 5% of 2016 Hillary supporters would vote for Trump.

Now it doesn't take a statistical genius to know that these numbers do not add up to a five point Sanders polling lead. A quick mathematical formula shows that if that held true that returning voters would favor Trump by a margin of approximately 1.6%. Since first time voters generally make up around 10% of a Presidential election (and new voters favored Clinton by just under 20 points in 2016) there is not going to be nearly enough "new" voters to push Sanders to any sort of lead. Realistically those first time voters (at best) push the needle by 1.5-2.5 percent.

In other words, the cross tabs of this poll between Trump and Sanders suggests race very similar to the 2016 race, with Sanders probably squeezing out a very small popular vote margin, but falling well short of the 2.1% popular vote margin that Clinton got in 2016.

This is (and has been for several cycles) the problem with these polls. The underlying cross tabs just don't add up to the top line results. I was able to (in 2016) create a spreadsheet that simply used the crosstabs of about 15 major pollsters, and this spreadsheet allowed me to project the popular vote within 0.2% of the final result. Had I used the same polls and simply averaged their toplines, I would have been off by more than ten time that margin.

Looking through the cross tabs, the Democrats have one Candidate (Joe Biden) who seems capable of doing as well or better than Clinton did in 2016.  That's assuming that the Biden bump doesn't go away, and that he doesn't undercut his own candidacy (as he has done repeatedly in the past). The others (Sanders, Warren, Harris, Buttigieg) would have a lot of work to do and would still have to stand up to being singled out by Trump and the media. Trump has that way of finding a weakness, hammering on that weakness, and beating it to a pulp.

Bottom line: I remain skeptical of the early polling so for for the 2020 election. My skepticism has been justified now for several cycles, and there is no reason at this point to believe I am going to be  wrong this time.

101 comments:

Anonymous said...

The Lost Years get erased.

"Consumer sentiment surged in May to its best level since 2004.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index in May jumped to a reading of 102.4 from April’s 97.2. Economists had expected a more modest pickup to 97.5.

This is the third survey showing economic conditions improving in May, following the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey and the New York Fed’s Empire State survey."



Anonymous said...




Bottom line: I remain skeptical of the early polling so for for the 2020 election. My skepticism has been justified now for several cycles, and there is no reason at this point to believe I am going to be wrong this time.

ha.

your stage 11 trumpism prevents you from admitting to yourself that the the fox poll is accurate, just like you denied trump's guilt for objection of justice.

biden by a LANDSLIDE!!!11!


you're in denial, S. Scott. deep, deep denial. and you suck.

so there.

;-p


.

Commonsense said...

I tend to think polling at this stage is to create a narrative rather than getting an accurate feel for the electorate.

Anonymous said...

Blogger Commonsense said...

I tend to think polling at this stage is to create a narrative rather than getting an accurate feel for the electorate.


as was the polling on the eve of the 2016 election.

my personal fave was the huff po. they had the feckless cunt of the cankles winning 98% to 2%. and they were so proud of their certainty they had it right at the top of their home page for fucking days.

Commonsense said...

However Trump is doing one thing that politically mystifies me.

He dumping illegal aliens into Florida which is a must win state for him as oppose to dumping them in California and New York where he has no chance of winning.

This will not bode well for his re-election chances.

C.H. Truth said...

Rat...

Don't you mean objection to justice?

Anonymous said...

Lol

Anonymous said...

Comey Repeatedly Lied the President Trump.

The Three Socialist Stooges supports Comey, Clapper and Brennan
.

Anonymous said...

Blogger C.H. Truth said...

Rat...

Don't you mean objection to justice?


yeah, something like that. you're awful picky for a guy with stage 39 trumpism, aren't you S. Scott???

oh, and you suck.

a lot.

;-p

now then, i have copy/paste's to harvest.



DOH!

trump just tweeted again!

TRIGGERED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!




Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

You can never be proven wrong.

I knew that after I posted the Fox News pol, showing Biden leading by a (suspicious) majority.

The same (suspicious) poll shows Biden leads in Pennsylvania and Michigan and Wisconsin. In the districts that Trump won, Obama won in both (suspicious) elections.

The Trump base is solid enough to convince you that you are not going to be wrong.

We will see.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Flynn told Mueller that people tied to Trump and Congress tried to obstruct probe!

The communications could have affected the ex-national security adviser's "willingness to cooperate," Robert Mueller wrote in court filings.
SHARE THIS —
May 16, 2019, 6:20 PM ET

Former national security adviser Michael Flynn told investigators that people linked to the Trump administration and Congress reached out to him in an effort to interfere in the Russia probe, according to newly unredacted court papers filed Thursday.

The court filing from special counsel Robert Mueller is believed to mark the first public acknowledgement that a person connected to Capitol Hill was suspected of engaging in an attempt to impede the investigation into Russian election interference.

Anonymous said...




The Trump base is solid enough to convince you that you are not going to be wrong.


did you even read his fucking post?

it's an well thought out objective analysis of the methodology, not the necessarily the result, you dumb fuck.


Anonymous said...




you forgot ralph strap-on's link alky:


http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/congressional-connection-adds-striking-new-twist-flynn-scandal

Anonymous said...




The court materials are frustratingly silent on the “connected to … Congress” angle, but the prospect of someone associated with Capitol Hill interfering with a federal investigation raises some tantalizing possibilities.


To be sure, “connected to” is a phrase with more than one meaning. It could be a reference to elected lawmakers – a striking possibility – or it could involve someone further down the legislative hierarchy: staffers, consultants, campaign aides, etc.

Without more information, we’re left to wonder. But as Rachel told Lawrence O’Donnell last night, why would someone “connected to” Congress contact Michael Flynn about his cooperation with federal law enforcement? Did those contacts constitute an obstructive effort?

There are a dozen pending criminal cases that sprang from the Mueller investigation, and at least for now, we don’t know what any of them are. Is it possible one of them relates to someone “connected to” Congress?

There are some intriguing possibilities.



ralphie the liar strap on and her tin foil hat never fails to impress the weakest intellects among us.

anonymous said...

"Consumer sentiment surged in May to its best level since 2004.

Must be the reason for the great market today, doncha think goat fucking asshole?????

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cB_kPeDO89M

Live cam of the beach we visited this morning.....LOLOLOLOLOLOO

Anonymous said...

"did you even read his fucking post?

it's an well thought out objective analysis of the methodology, not the necessarily the result, you dumb fuck."

You no he didn't , he is as emotional as a teen girl.

anonymous said...

as was the polling on the eve of the 2016 election.


LOL again at you rat hole....the polling for the national popular vote was dead fucking nuts,,,,,,the electoral college was never part of any polls that were issued......sorry asshole.....

caliphate4vr said...

Did you get harpooned, fatty?

Anonymous said...

I am happy that Biden is Beating everyone in his Party . The Socialist Democrats rejected the girls including Peter Buttplug .

Anonymous said...

Look Beached Whale Denney.
I could explain how this is a big Win.
""Consumer sentiment surged in May to its best level since 2004."
Over the Lost Years and failed policies.

Anonymous said...

Spectacularly Wrong.
"the electoral college was never part of any polls that were issued"

Just plain troll stupid.

anonymous said...

The goat fucking loser once again can't find his own ass in the dark...


Post me a poll that specially tracked the EC

ASSHOLE....I won't hold my breath !!!!!

anonymous said...

""Consumer sentiment surged in May to its best level since 2004."

Listen you goat fucking idiot....I asked whether that was the reason for today's spectacular down market!!!!! Try again you dumb fuck....

Maybe I'll wave at the camera next time there and you can judge for yourself!!!! BWAAAAAAAAAA!!!!

anonymous said...

Trump surrenders on the canadian metal tariffs.....seems he even realizes how stupid they were!!!!!!! But the goat fucking idiot will still say they are good....BWAAAAAAA!!!!

Anonymous said...

"canadian metal tariffs"

I have no opinion, I don't know enough about them.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Even an idiot can get something right!

The U.S. will lift steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada and Mexico within the next 48 hours, reports Politico. News that a deal was approaching on Friday was first reported by Bloomberg.

Why it matters: The move will make it easier for USMCA, NAFTA's replacement trade deal, to be approved by the three nations. The tariffs would be replaced by stronger enforcement measures, according to Bloomberg, and there will not be any quotas or limits imposed on imports of the metals.

Anonymous said...

It would be helpful if Speaker in Name Only Polosi would put up the USMCA Trade Agreement up for a vote.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

The U.S. will lift steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada and Mexico within the next 48 hours"

Ok, and in kind Canada drops their Tarrifs on US Goods.

anonymous said...

Ok, and in kind Canada drops their Tarrifs on US Goods.


Wow,,,,what a massive waste of time.....like I said....the goat fucking idiot would think it's great policy,,,,,,if brains were tnt....you couldn't blow your nose!!!! BWAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!

Anonymous said...



Blogger Roger Amick said...

Even an idiot can get something right!



we'll let you know when you get something right around here alky.

anonymous said...

I have no opinion,


YOU HAVE NO BRAINS EITHER goat fucking loser.......BWAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!

Still looking for that link for the EC poll you said existed......LOLOLOL

anonymous said...

Tiger in deep jail.....may not make the cut!!!!!! +5 and looking for another !!!!! BWAAAAAAPAAAAAA!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

Blogger KD said...

What Obama/Biden Trade deals where rattified during the Lost Years?

I don't remember one.



0linsky traded several plane loads of cash for, well, nothing.




Anonymous said...



btw, trump may flip the ninth circus from D to R by 2020.

it's called WINNING.

anonymous said...

flip the ninth circus from D to R by 2020.


BWAAAAAAPAAAAAA!!!!!!!! That is a rather large pipe dream even for a dumb fuck like you!!!!!!!!!



I don't remember one.

You can't find your own ass in the dark.....Idiot Try the google machine.....there are many for you to find.....LOLOLOLOL

Anonymous said...

"Google Machine"

What losing looks like.

Too easy.

anonymous said...

What losing looks like.


You looking in a mirror.....BWAAAAAA!!!! Even easier goat fucker....

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Objection of justice allegations against the Congress! And people within the administration are not going away.

Despite what the President and his pathological supporters say, it's not over.


Former national security adviser Michael Flynn told investigators that people linked to the Trump administration and Congress reached out to him in an effort to interfere in the Russia probe, according to newly unredacted court papers filed Thursday.

Flynn may have recordings of conversations with the Trump administration and persons in the Congress.

Myballs said...

Hey stupid, there's a new investigation in town. The one Mueller completely ignored.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice-department/flynn-told-mueller-people-tied-trump-congress-tried-obstruct-probe-n1006666

Anonymous said...

You had your turn Roger, you failed to get Trump.

Epic fail.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

The one Mueller completely ignored stupid?

The court filing from special counsel Robert Mueller is believed to mark the first public acknowledgement that a person connected to Capitol Hill was suspected of engaging in an attempt to impede the investigation into Russian election interference.


“The defendant informed the government of multiple instances, both before and after his guilty plea, where either he or his attorneys received communications from persons connected to the Administration or Congress that could’ve affected both his willingness to cooperate and the completeness of that cooperation," says the newly revealed section of a sentencing memo originally filed in December.


This was information that Barr had not released.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

The objection of justice allegations the first public acknowledgement that a person connected to Capitol Hill was suspected of engaging in an attempt to impede the investigation into Russian election interference.

A staff member of a Republican congressman or the congressman?

Anonymous said...

Go Roger Go, spam us up.

Myballs said...

Diversion.

Comet, clapper and Brennan are going to jail. That investigation Mueller ignored.

Ned Ryun said...

@nedryun

Retweet if you agree: For the sake of truly preventing any foreign election meddling in the future I am proposing paper ballots, voter ID and in person voting on Election Day. #maga #tcot

Michael Tracey said...

@mtracey

Journalists are so upset about the new investigative scrutiny on Brennan, Clapper, Comey, McCabe, Baker, Strzok, Page, Ohr, etc. because they know that if they're conclusively outed as having peddled a fraud, the journalists themselves are also deeply implicated in that fraud

Julie Kelly said...

@julie_kelly2

Ed Henry actually made a great point that the intel chiefs didn’t tell Trump about Page but did brief on the dossier “pee tape.”

justice will be knocking

Rosie memos said...

@almostjingo

Just so we’re clear the @FBI was investigating Gen Flynn for “ties to Russia” (that he cleared with @ODNIgov) whilst also paying him as a consultant?

but seriously if @BarackObama and @SallyQYates thought @POTUS shouldn’t hire @GenFlynn why was @Comey’s @FBI paying Flynn as a consultant?


https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/326866-flynn-files-new-financial-paperwork-disclosing-payments-from-russian …

C3 said...

@C_3C_3

We werent supposed to know about FISAs
We werent supposed to know Strzok/Page texts
We werent supposed to know about Halper/Mifsud etc
We werent supposed to know Hillary paid for the Dossier

We werent supposed to know "The White House is running this."

But we do & now they pay.

Sara A. Carter said...

@SaraCarterDC

@JudicialWatch #BREAKING files motion on behalf of Retired FBI Supervisory Special Agent Jeffery Danik. He’s fighting DOJ’s refusal to turn over McCabe's official work Texts and Emails under FOIA - Sara A. Carter

Should be a ton on info, maybe Barr can just get DOJ to comply.

James O'Keefe said...

@JamesOKeefeIII

LEAKED Facebook docs showed plans to trigger "special features... leading up to important elections." They admit they already "demote bad content." What is bad content? They cite Lauren Chen conservative commentary as an example. Work at FB? Reach out: http://www.projectveritas.com/brave

Steph said...

@steph93065

Replying to @RepAdamSchiff
The FBI knew the dossier came from Russian intelligence and they knew it in July of 2016.

The two men below were the sources as Steele told the State Department and the State Department told the @FBI and Wray recently tried to make it classified for 40 years. #Treason

https://twitter.com/steph93065/status/1129463290101260288

C.H. Truth said...

Roger - it's not that Barr didn't "release it" - it was not in the Mueller report.

Anonymous said...

CNN Roger.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

It was a court filing from special counsel Robert Mueller. FISA.

I don't think that you understand the ramifications that can arise in the future. If any President, who is under investigation, decides to use the Justice department, to investigate the investigators and charges them with treason, he becomes a dictator. He would fire the director of the investigation.


No one can investigate any wrongdoing without being accused of treason for a coup if the President decides to do so.



C.H. Truth said...

Sorry Roger

You need to get this through your head.

THERE WAS NO REASON TO INVESTIGATE THE PRESIDENT

That isn't even a matter of opinion. It's a matter of fact.

What you are advocating here is that the President/Party/Presidential Nominee is allowed to hire a foreign agent to dig up dirt on the opposition candidate... Now knowing full well that the dirt is bogus, you believe it is okay to turn it over to the FBI as actual evidence, in order to start an investigation into the opposition Party Presidential Candidate.

Because that is what you are looking at here.

The REAL unethical investigation was the whole Russian collusion delusion. It never existed. There is no evidence. Never was any evidence. Never will be any evidence. There was never any legitimate reason to investigate either Trump or his campaign.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

George Washington's farewell address.

All obstructions to the execution of the laws, all combinations and associations, under whatever plausible character, with the real design to direct, control, counteract, or awe the regular deliberation and action of the constituted authorities, are destructive of this fundamental principle, and of fatal tendency. They serve to organize faction, to give it an artificial and extraordinary force; to put, in the place of the delegated will of the nation the will of a party, often a small but artful and enterprising minority of the community; and, according to the alternate triumphs of different parties, to make the public administration the mirror of the ill-concerted and incongruous projects of faction, rather than the organ of consistent and wholesome plans digested by common counsels and modified by mutual interests.

However combinations or associations of the above description may now and then answer popular ends, they are likely, in the course of time and things, to become potent engines, by which cunning, ambitious, and unprincipled men will be enabled to subvert the power of the people and to usurp for themselves the reins of government, destroying afterwards the very engines which have lifted them to unjust dominion.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Bullshit again. They were warned by the Obama administration to be aware of the Russians intervention into the election. He denies that the Russians did attack our country by calling into doubt the foundation of our government, to choose to run the government. He claimed that Putin said that they had not intervened into the election.

There was credible evidence that the Russians might have been in contact with members of the campaign! Not the fucking dossier.

Get your head out of your ass.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

If any President, who is under investigation, decides to use the Justice department, to investigate the investigators and charges them with treason, he becomes a dictator. He would fire the director of the investigation.


No one can investigate any wrongdoing without being accused of treason for a coup if the President decides to do so.


You don't care!

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

You are a brick wall

C.H. Truth said...

Roger

Nobody is denying that the Russians probably hacked the DNC and Hillary campaigns or ran the trolling farms.

That is not what this argument is about.

So don't be dishonest and try to change the subject.


The ONLY thing that matters is whether or not any Americans "colluded, conspired, or coordinated" with the Russians. No Americans did, Roger. There has never been, nor will there ever be any evidence of such cooperation.


That, Roger... is the ONLY THING that matters.

That was why Mueller was hired. To harass the President and his campaign over allegations that never had even the slightest bit of evidence to consider probable cause.

How many people knew that there was never any evidence?

Every one who did, but insisted on using the full forces of the DOJ, FBI, and even hire a Special Counsel to go after what everyone knew to be false?

Why would they do that Roger?

Give us a "good" reason for that?

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

More fake news from Fox News per CHT polls show more Americans care about the country than Trump.

Fox News poll: On the Russia investigation, who do you trust more?

Mueller 40%
Barr 22%

Mueller 45%
Trump 27%

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Mueller was hired.

(To harass the President and his campaign over allegations that never had even the slightest bit of evidence to consider probable cause.)

You actually believe that the FBI/DOJ were motivated by partisan politics and according to the President, to in effect, punish the President for defeating Hillary Clinton.

They didn't want to find out if they had cooperated with the Russians? Which of course is an act of treason? Of course not!


To conduct the investigations required FISA warrants. By your train of thought is that the judges wanted to get Trump. No evidence neccessary to get the warrants!!!!!

We knew that the Russians did attack the election system by trolling farms, and the use of the social media organizations.

I believe that they were honest and and non partisan investigators. Were there is couple people who were offended by the President. But they did not initiate the investigation!

Muller is a Republican and former director of the FBI. You actually believe that he was out of get the President, by any means.

The DID attack the DNC and Hillary campaigns or ran the trolling farms.

They hacked into the DNC servers the very day after Trump asked the Russians to release the 30,000 emails. You don't find that suspicious?

I don't know the exact number of people in the campaign, had contact with Russians during the campaign. You don't think that the Mueller team should have asked questions? No, because they were out of get the President.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

You're so much into conspiracy theories you probably believe like Trump, that Obama was born in Kenya!

Or maybe that Ted Cruz's father was involved in the Kennedy assassination!

anonymous said...


The ONLY thing that matters is whether or not any Americans "colluded, conspired, or coordinated"

You miss the point that trump and his minions were talking to the russians trying to get dirt and never reported the contacts with a foreign power trying to peddle dirt on hillary....as an american citizen....you should be enraged that such behavior existed by the POTUS and company and thought that is is not a problem...IT IS A PROBLEM.....PUTIN IS NO FRIEND OF THE US!!!! Trump was trying to get a hotel in Moscow to enrich himself and not the country!!! Running the WH like a criminal enterprise is what he does best......it will take time, but paybacks will be a bitch!!!!

anonymous said...

Aw too bad....Tiger after being fellated by trump with a great medal signifying what a great human being he is.....DID NOT MAKE THE CUT AT THE PGA!!! I feel soooooooo bad for the 3 time loser getting awarded by another 3 time loser.....but you will applaud....BWAAAA!!!!!!

anonymous said...


A GOP Missouri lawmaker used the phrase ‘consensual rape’ in abortion debate. He says he misspoke.


He misspoke my ass!!!! Another stupid old white man said exactly what he wanted....He is a retired cop and made a 5 minute tirade about his experience as a cop and how 90% of rapes were consensual....The goat fucker will wipe his chin and say amen!!!!! Of course women deserve no rights or say what goes on with their bodies...it is the old white man way....keep the little women walking 5 steps behind and under your thumb......right lilt Scotty....the main proponent of taking away liberties of women....!!!!

Commonsense said...

You miss the point that trump and his minions were talking to the russians trying to get dirt and never reported the contacts with a foreign power trying to peddle dirt on hillary....as an american citizen..

And this was different from Hillary paying for the Steel dossier how?

Commonsense said...

DID NOT MAKE THE CUT AT THE PGA!!!

So did a lot of other good golfers. That's why they call it a "Major".

It says more about you character that you despise people for being honored with the medal of freedom simply because you hate the current president of the United States.

Commonsense said...

You're so much into conspiracy theories you probably believe like Trump, that Obama was born in Kenya!

The funny thing about the whole birther nonsense is that as far as being constitutionally qualified to be president where Obama was born did not matter one bit.

But it sure pissed off Obama and his supporters to no end.

anonymous said...

That's why they call it a "Major".

Defending tiger like the good little minion you are....he's nothing more than a spoiled trump slurper who stopped drinking and you should be proud of that????? They call it a major because of history....nothing else.....My character is fine, you are the one who accepts a whore monger as president and a women abusing drunkard as a golfer.....not me!!!! BWAAAAAAAAA!!!!! The medal he was awarded was because he is a golfing friend to trump....FOT.....nothing more......asshole

Commonsense said...

Defending tiger like the good little minion you are...

I personally liked Tiger Woods even before Trump decided to become president, Was disappointed at his personal failing. Cheered at his physical and personal rehabilitation of his life to win another Major (The Masters).

You're just pissed because not all Black people think the way you think they should. What a good little overseer you are.

anonymous said...


I personally liked Tiger Woods even before

SO FUCKING WHAT!!!! I never liked his shtity attitude and fist pumping antics when he made a shot or his temper when ne did not....Why would I care what black people think????? Or for that matter, you worship to of the largest assholes this country has to offer??? Not my problem, it is your opinion and I can't even attempt to fix that nor will I with shitty rationale like you accept....Oh well can;t fix stupid...!!!!

anonymous said...

The funny thing about the whole birther nonsense is that as far as being constitutionally

And your hero trump was the main pusher of the BS.....like tiger....you never blinked on your support....Sure was an eye opener of what trump was.....a frigging show man blurting out trash to promote himself....just like the moscow deal!!!!

anonymous said...

A very interesting read about our liar in chief.....so sad his antics on the golf course are similar to the way he runs the country....can't count and moves the goal posts.... a complete cheat....but who am I to judge?????? LOLOLOLOL

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/does-donald-trump-cheat-at-golf-a-washington-post-investigation/2015/09/02/f8a940b2-50c4-11e5-9812-92d5948a40f8_story.html?utm_term=.6198139b00bd

Reilly told The Washington Post about an afternoon when Trump wrote down scores he didn’t actually achieve on his scorecard, conceded putts to himself by raking the ball into the hole with his putter rather than striking it properly (“He rakes like my gardener!”), and even called a gimme — something a player might claim for a two-foot putt — on what should have been a chip shot.


“He took the world’s first gimme chip-in,” Reilly said. At one point, Trump, after taking a number of second shots, told Reilly to “make sure you write that I play my first ball. You don’t get a second ball in life.” In life, it may or may not be true that a person gets a second chance; and yet, as Reilly wrote, on holes 1, 13 and 17, Trump did indeed get a second ball.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

If he had been born in Kenya, you don't understand the constitutional requirements. He would not have been able be the President. Native born. McCain was born in the Panamanian canal zone, American soil.

Commonsense said...

I understand a lot more about constitutional requirements than you do as well a English common law.

A native-born American citizen is someone who is born on America soil (and subject to jurisdiction thereof) or is Born to American citizens overseas.

That's how John McCain ran. The Canal Zone was not American soil as Jimmy Carter so dramatically proved when he gave control of the zone back to Panama.

cowardly king obama said...


What a beautiful morning

lo iq "unknown" is posting 2015 articles about Trump cheating at golf.

TDS roger doesn't have a clue that Comey even admits unlawfully leaking to start-up his close friend Mueller as special prosecutor. Who along with his top prosecutor Weissmann have made malicious prosecutions their calling card. And with a compliant press have yet failed in their quest to take down Trump.

The time has come for some accountability for the actions of the prior administration.

If they have done nothing wrong they have nothing to worry about.

But their minions sure appear worried.

ROFLMFAO !!!

anonymous said...

" is posting 2015 articles about Trump cheating at golf.

You think he has changed?????? BWAAAAAAAAA!!!!! Use the google machine with trump cheats at golf...there are hundreds of entries.....Cheating at golf is a mirror into the man's soul.......and it is a picture only asshole cowards and slurpers can accept.....What a great day a trump slurper slurps and swallows.....BWAAAAAAAAAA!!!!! fucking dumb ass idiot.....

anonymous said...

You cheat in golf.....you cheat in your whole life,.,,,,,

https://www.golf.com/news/features/2019/04/02/how-why-president-trump-cheats-golf-playing-tiger-woods/



I used to have this coach who told us, “How you do one thing is how you do everything. You loaf in practice, you’re gonna loaf in the game. You cheat on your tests, you’re gonna cheat on your wife.”

I’ve found that to be true with golf. The guy who plays slowly on the course is going to be molasses in meetings. The guy who’s generous with compliments on the course is going to do the same at dinner. And the guy who cheats on the course is going to cheat in business, or on his taxes or, say, in politics.

Jack O’Donnell worked with Donald Trump for four years as vice president of Trump Plaza Casino in Atlantic City. O’Donnell’s dad was one of the founders of Sawgrass, the iconic Pete Dye golf course near Jacksonville, Fla. “My dad always told us to respect the game,” O’Donnell says. “That’s the one part of the game that tells me what kind of person you are. You play the ball where it lies.” So when O’Donnell’s office colleague, the late Mark Eddis, came back after his first round with Trump, O’Donnell couldn’t resist asking.

“So, does he improve his lie?”

Eddis looked at him and threw his head back in laughter. “Every shot but the tee shot.”


Commander in Cheat will be available on April 2.

Trump doesn’t just cheat at golf. He cheats like a three-card Monte dealer. He throws it, boots it, and moves it. He lies about his lies. He fudges and foozles and fluffs. At Winged Foot, where Trump is a member, the caddies got so used to seeing him kick his ball back onto the fairway they came up with a nickname for him: “Pele.”

C.H. Truth said...

You actually believe that the FBI/DOJ were motivated by partisan politics and according to the President, to in effect, punish the President for defeating Hillary Clinton.

You actually believe that the President of the United States conspired with a hostile foreign power to steal a Presidential election? The pure idiocy of the claim is proof positive that ANYONE who believed it, did so with impure intentions.

It fails to get through your thick skull that the allegations of conspiracy were ridiculous and completely without merit. The latter point not in dispute anymore. Four investigations. Zero proof of conspiracy.

You also seem way too willing to brush off all of the anti-Trump sentiments at every level of the FBI investigation. Perhaps had Comey kept his mouth shut "since" he was fired, we wouldn't know what an actual Trump-hater he is. McCabe declared the President a potential "foreign agent" after he fired Comey. They set up the investigation as an "insurance policy" by their own words. These people used a fake dossier (that they knew was fake) paid for by Trump's political opponents to justify their probe into the President and his campaign.


Here is the reality, Roger.

I am not gullible enough to believe that there was a legitimate cause to start these investigations. You may be, but your gullibility will never convince me that these members of the FBI acted in good faith and that their politics had nothing to do with it.

I find it amazing that these people "admitted" in text messages and emails that their investigations were a "insurance policy" against Trump being elected or becoming President.... and later when they claim that that really didn't mean anything, and it didn't affect their professional judgement, that "good old Roger" just plays along and say...

"doh! Okay. I believe you!"


Explain to us Roger... why was McCabe fired? Why was Strzok fired? Why were several other people demoted?

Anonymous said...




Blogger Roger Amick said...

If he had been born in Kenya, you don't understand the constitutional requirements. He would not have been able be the President. Native born. McCain was born in the Panamanian canal zone, American soil.



the descent into madness continues.


cray-cray, coo-koo, it's straightjacket time for cirrhosis boy...




anonymous said...

ou actually believe that the President of the United States conspired with a hostile foreign power to steal a Presidential election?

Trump doesn’t just cheat at golf. He cheats like a three-card Monte dealer. He throws it, boots it, and moves it. He lies about his lies. He fudges and foozles and fluffs

Nah lil scotty.....he's a liar and chief and you worship him......sorry......you proved nothing about his campaigns accepting the wikileaks and tower meeting.....whatever......LOLOLOLOLOL

Anonymous said...



They hacked into the DNC servers the very day after Trump asked the Russians to release the 30,000 emails. You don't find that suspicious?


alky, no one HACKED the DNC servers. podesta got phished. and the DNC was SO concerned, they refused to let the FBI investigate and examine the servers and chose to go with crowdstrike instead. the reasons for this have never been adequately explained.


this whole thing was complete bullshit from day fucking one.

a complete fable, fabricated by the team of 'queen cankles of the feckless cunt' to explain away the most epic defeat in the history of american politics. mook, palmieri, et. al. were tasked with coming up with an excuse the day after the election, and the russia bullshit was their best effort. a fucking joke from its inception.

the whole "trump colluded with putin" thing doesn't even pass the giggle test. if i'm putin i want cankles in the white house for fucking EVER. she was bought and paid for, in his fucking pocket, and a known quantity. vs. trump, who's as crazy as a march hare.

look, you hate trump. we get it. but to latch on with a death grip to a tale that is so completely ridiculous on its face, and to dig your heels in on it as you have done, tells me that you really are in the grip of a severe mental illness. call it TDS, call it whatever, you are fucking nuts.

mail order bailed for a reason, alky.







anonymous said...

And you slurpers accept his lies....just like his 3 handicap .....BWAAAAAAA!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AH8CFPXCz90

Anonymous said...

Australia's conservative coalition scores stunning political victory in general election, defies polls forecasting loss

Commonsense said...

Another blow to global warming alarmist.

anonymous said...


Another blow to global warming alarmist.

More proof that your head is firmly planted up your ass....


New polling from a respected foreign policy thinktank underscores the point that 2019 is the climate change election, with a majority of Australians saying global warming is a critical threat.

The poll undertaken for Lowy says 64% of adults rank climate change number one on a list of 12 threats to Australia’s national interests, up six points from last year’s survey and a jump of 18 points since 2014.

The 2019 result is the first time climate has topped the list of threats since Lowy began the research in 2006. After climate change, cyberattacks ranks second, terrorism third and North Korea’s nuclear program fourth.


Climate change takes centre stage in Australia's election
Read more
The Lowy result is consistent with private research undertaken by environmental groups and by the major political parties, which suggest climate change is surfacing as a concern in parts of the country normally sanguine about the issue.

The new poll comes as a shocking new report from the United Nations this week finds biodiversity is declining at an unprecedented rate, with one million species at risk of extinction, and human populations in jeopardy if the trajectory is not reversed.

cowardly king obama said...


Saturday Schadenfreude: Al Gore inserts himself into Australia's election — and Aussie voters run the other way

You'd think Al Gore, the big clown dumkopf who went off the rails after he lost the 2000 election to George W. Bush, would have learned a thing or two about what works in Western politics. One of those things is that foreign interference in another country's election is the most reliable way to get the opposite of the desired result.

Well meaning Brits who wrote letters to Ohio voters, after all, urging them to vote for John Kerry in 2004, were pretty much the example of how well that idea works out.

Well, either Gore is a slow learner or else he never got the memo. Instead of recognizing how futile this idea is, he went to Australia just ahead of its election — one that Al Jazeera said was all about global warming indeed — and repeated the same stupidities he always does about global warming, telling Australians how to vote to make him happy. When happened then is what always happens: Gore gave Australians one more reason to vote the other way. The latest election returns signal that that's exactly what the Aussies did.
Here are some CNN live-blog headlines:

Stunned Labor refuses to concede (Note: That's the global warmers in the same left-wing tree as Gore)

Morrison is magnificent, says former PM John Howard

Labor may have lost "unlosable" election

First results hint at Labor shock

You get the picture. Gore must be freaking out.
Sounds as if Gore did his part to ensure a conservative victory in Australia, which is great news for Aussies — and America, too.
What a clown.
By all means, Gore, keep speaking out. Conservatives can use your talents.

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/05/saturday_schadenfreude_al_gore_inserts_himself_into_australias_election__and_aussie_voters_run_the_other_way.html#ixzz5oINbt4ug

cowardly king obama said...

I see lo iq "unknown" had posted this:

"Climate change takes centre stage in Australia's election" along with the Lowy poll which had showed the left winning

They lost

Great poll

ROFLMFAO !!!

anonymous said...

They lost

And you continue through life lost like a dumb ass drunk....to cut and paste excerpts to make your point is about as stupid as the goat fucker fellating trump.....sad you are as stupid as he is......BWAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!

LMFAO at you again, you flaming asshole...!!!!

C.H. Truth said...

Well...

It's 2019. Liberals trust polls more than votes.

anonymous said...

. Liberals trust polls more than votes.

While you keep posting them to support your view....thanx for your hypocrisy....LOLOLOLOLOL!

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

I will never convince you that these members of the FBI acted in good faith and that their politics had nothing to do with it.

You actually believe what the President told you to think. It was a great conspiracy by dedicated professional law enforcement officials, mostly Republicans.

You have lost your mind Scott.

Commonsense said...

I will never convince you that these members of the FBI acted in good faith and that their politics had nothing to do with it.

Not when you have text messages between them that conclusively prove that this was not so.

Anonymous said...




Blogger Roger Amick said...

I will never convince you that these members of the FBI acted in good faith and that their politics had nothing to do with it.



the fact that you truly believe this, in the face of a mountain of evidence that dwarfs mount everest, is exactly why i am 100% convinced that you are coo coo for cocoa puffs, cray cray batshit, mentally fucking ill.

mail order bailed for a reason, alky.

anonymous said...

have text messages between them that conclusively prove that this was not so.


You mean those two who had water cooler conversations and got caught fucking???? Trump got caught and you never said a word.....Dayum funny!!

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Two people who were fired because they were having sex, and texting each other, were the only reason to initiate the investigation into the Russian intervention into the election.

That's the real Sunday Funny.