Misleading headline?

Well not really... but is the story misleading? 

 74% of economists in survey see US recession by end of 2021

A strong majority, 74%, of U.S. business economists appear sufficiently concerned about the risks of some of President Donald Trump's economic policies that they expect a recession in the U.S. by the end of 2021.

The economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics, in a report released Monday, mostly didn't share Trump's optimistic outlook for the economy, though they generally saw recession coming later than they did in a survey taken in February. Thirty-four percent of the economists surveyed said they believe a slowing economy will tip into recession in 2021. That's up from 25% in the February survey.

Well first of all, the questions asked of the NABE had nothing to do with whether or not they are concerned with Trump's policies. Everyone understands that recessions will happen in some form of a cycle, and that economic policies simply may not prevent them from eventually happening. The only real reference to his policies was a question regarding a possible trade deal with China, which economists were not confident of. Of course, that really isn't an economic question as much as it is a political and negotiation question.

The article implies that economist believe that tariffs and higher deficits are a concern (which seems odd since we have been dealing with tariffs since Trump has been President, and our deficits are running at a lower percent of GDP than they had just a few years ago). But those subjects were not actually addressed in this particular poll. The authors of the article just sort of tossed it in their for effect.

The breakdown:

• Approximately forty percent see a recession prior to the 2020 election.
• Approximately a third do not see a recession happening until 2021.
• Approximately a quarter do not see a recession at all in our immediate future. 

What this represents is actually a slightly less amount of them believing it will happen prior to the election than did six months ago. In February the number was closer to forty five percent believing we would see a recession before the election. So quite obviously the strength of the economy "right now" convinced a few of these economists to push back their predictions.

This is obviously "at odds" with the media's increased attention to the possibility of the recession, since the media seems to act as if the chances have gone up dramatically. The reality is that the economists polled here see the economy as stronger than they did six months ago, and predictions of any recession have been pushed out further into the future.

As a whole, the business economists' recent responses have represented a rebuke of the Trump administration's overall approach to the economy.

Still, for now, most economic signs appear solid. Employers are adding jobs at a steady pace, the unemployment rate remains near a 50-year low and consumers are optimistic. U.S. retail sales figures out last Thursday showed that they jumped in July by the most in four months. 

Again, the idea that this survey is a "rebuke" of Trump's overall approach to the economy is not exactly as self evident as the article would like it to be. The economy at this point is still going plenty strong, and the "blue chip consensus" regarding the third quarter GDP is actually rising as the quarter goes on. These predictions are moving from under the two percent threshold to coming at least a couple tenths above that number. A recession (keep in mind) is defined as two consecutive quarters with negative GDP growth. There is a big difference between two percent and a negative GDP growth.

Things would have to change in a hurry.