College Football Playoff Scenario

It's early, but already there appears to be some chances for some big controversy getting this down to four teams. Lets look at the contenders:

The SEC has two major contenders for the playoffs. LSU and Alabama. Both are rated as top three teams right now. They both have a remaining game with Auburn (who could be a top 10 team later today) and they also play each other. If either of those two teams is undefeated, then they are pretty much in without question. If they both beat Auburn, then whoever loses may also have a shot as one loss team. If the winner of the LSU vs Alabama game has a loss to Auburn, then that team might also have a shot as a one loss team.

Clemson and Oklahoma have the opposite problem. Clemson has no ranked teams left on their schedule and there is no power house team in the other division for them to play in a conference championship. Oklahoma does have undefeated Baylor left on their schedule, but even undefeated Baylor is not a top ten team. In fact, there is a pretty good chance that Baylor would be the Sooner's opponent in a big twelve championship game as well. All that being said, it would be hard to see either team left out in favor of a one loss team. But playing the weaker schedule does make this a possibility.

The Big Ten has two major contenders as well at this point. Ohio State and Penn State. Both are undefeated and both are top six teams (assuming Penn State moves up after the Wisconsin loss). They play each other in the second to last scheduled game of the year. Ohio State also has Wisconsin and their traditional season ending game with Michigan (in Michigan). Penn State has undefeated Minnesota. If either team comes out of big ten play undefeated then they would be in (just as with the SEC teams). The loser has a chance as a one loss team, only if the chips fall just right.

Other possible playoff teams?

The Pac Ten is going to push hard for Oregon if they manage to win out.  Auburn would have to beat both LSU and Alabama and then likely Georgia or Florida in the conference championship, but if they did I think they are a shoo in. The winner of the upcoming Georgia vs Florida game could stake a claim by winning out, conceivably having to beat the winner of Alabama and LSU in the championship game. Wisconsin's big loss to Illinois makes things difficult. But if they were to defeat Ohio State next week, beat Minnesota in final regular season game, and then go on to win the Conference championship game, there could be a strong case made.  Notre Dame is once again hindered by having no conference, much less a conference championship game. They play nobody the rest of the way and would need a ton of teams ahead of them to lose to have a shot as a one loss team.

Boise State and SMU are both undefeated and there is a pretty good chance that they win out. But neither has beaten anyone and neither have anyone left. I see several one loss power conference teams that pass them over. As undefeated Power five teams, Baylor and Minnesota would conceivably garner spots by going undefeated and winning their Conference championship game, although those are unlikely scenarios. Baylor would have to beat Oklahoma twice, While Minnesota plays Penn State, Wisconsin and then would likely need to beat Ohio State in the Conference Championship.

There are ton of crazy scenarios that could mess up all of this, or some teams could make it very easy. Best case scenario is that you have four undefeated teams from four different conferences. I find it much harder for one loss teams from a represented conference to say they deserve a place over undefeated teams from other power five conferences. But that's just me. SEC fans always disagree. If it was up to them, they would get two, three, or all four of the spots.