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You probably have to click on this to more accurately see the chart, but it shows the amount of deaths per day going up dramatically over the next few days and peaking around Easter. Keeping in mind that if this chart remains accurate, the amount of deaths is calculated around 80,000 (but could obviously go much higher).
Is 80,000 a good or bad number? That depends. I am sure some people would be happy with it (and argue that it's not that far out of line with a bad cold and flu season*) while others will argue that it's the second coming of the plague. That being said, it is nowhere near the doom day scenarios that many people suggested.
Is it realistic? It appears to be.
It's actually pretty close to what Neil Ferguson from the Imperial College suggested when he dropped their 500,000 projection down to 20,000 in the U.K. (which turns out to be approximately one death per 3000). That exact figure turns out to be 109,000 if you take the US population as the 327 million suggested and divide by 3000.
Moreover, the old 500,000 number in the UK would also project statistically to approximately 2.7 million deaths here in the United States, which was in line with other suggestions for the US and just a little more than the worst case scenarios suggested today (had we done nothing).
Dr Brix was asked a while ago about about the 2 million plus number and made a similar statement to the extent that 2 million plus deaths was a realistic case if we made no real efforts to stop the spread. Sounds like this isn't much different than Dr Fauci and Dr Brix have been assuming all along. I think they probably used these projection models with some real time numbers in order to convince the President that keeping things in place could save lives to the tune of tens, if not hundreds of thousands.
Using the exit poll strategy, we can now start to run the day to day data with what these charts are expecting us to see. If we suddenly start seeing 3-5K deaths a day, then we are probably looking at a much higher number. If things are still in the hundreds into the later parts of next week, then perhaps we can keep it under even the 80K number that is being suggested by this particular chart.
* CDC projected 80,000 deaths from the 2017-2018 flu season
51 comments:
Trump Concedes 100K Could Die
March 29, 2020 at 8:44 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 201 Comments
President Trump acknowledged Sunday for the first time that deaths in the United States from coronavirus could reach 100,000 or more, adding that if the death toll stays at or below 100,000, “we all together have done a very good job,” CNN reports.
Earlier today, Dr. Anthony Fauci predicted between 100,000 and 200,000 would likely die.
WAIT A MINUTE!
EARLIER TODAY, COMMONSENSE STRONGLY ARGUED THAT FAUCI DIDN'T SAY THAT!!!!!
Earlier today, Dr. Anthony Fauci predicted between 100,000 and 200,000 would likely die.
no he didn't, and he explicitly asked not to be held to that number.
yet you continue to peddle the lie.
please, tell me again about the virtues of drafting cuomo to be the democrat nominee. i mean, he certainly possesses the bona fides -
GREECE, N.Y. (WROC) – Eight registered sex offenders have been released from the Monroe County Jail as part of a statewide order coming from The Department of Corrections and Community Services– or DOCCS.
The Monroe County Sheriffs’ Office said that more than 50 prisoners have been released from the Monroe County Jail on Saturday. Nine of those inmates are now staying at the Holiday Inn Express in Greece.
Among the inmates known to be staying at the Holiday Inn Express are four registered sex offenders. Three of whom are registered as level 3 sex offenders and are deemed by New York courts as most likely to re-offend. All three of the level 3 sex offenders staying at the Holiday Inn Express have been convicted for the rape of minors.
https://www.wivb.com/news/level-3-sex-offenders-among-inmates-released-from-monroe-county-jail/
Fauci didn't say anything different than he did on CNN.
He emphasized that it is a "possibility" and they are running several worst case scenarios.
He also emphasized that the social distancing guidance is working.
As for you taking joy in the possibility of hundreds of thousands of deaths just so you can be "right" James?
Well that's just plain evil.
rrb, it's okay now for you to admit that Fauci DID offer his opinion that the number of Covid-19 deaths might be as high as 100,000 or even 200,000.
It's okay for you to admit that, because even your Messiah Trump is now admitting this could indeed be the case.
No, I'm just interested in showing what liars you and rrb are. Anything to defend your Stable Genius Messiah.
Good morning, Trump sycophants!
It's really interesting what a turn around we have had here on this board. All of a sudden you who were saying that Fauci didn't actually predict there could be 100,000 or even 200,000 deaths-------have now changed your tune and are admitting that even Trump is saying that, so it must be true.
Interesting, how quickly you fall in line with your Messiah.
A month ago Trump was saying the number of cases would soon be down to zero. Now he's saying that "only" 100,000 deaths would be a tremendous victory!
More recently he was saying the nation would likely be open for business by Easter and churches would be packed. Now he's saying THAT prediction was only "aspirational" --- and now he's saying the epidemic will probably peak around Easter, and the nation sould be on on the way to recovery by June 1.
Mr. President, is that prediction based on any firm evidence that you have, or is it also only "aspirational" -- something you have again pulled out of your gut feelings and political preferences?
_________
Ch, your Stable Genius Messiah is now giving you permission to admit that the situation is indeed VERY serious, AND that skeptical critics of him on the left have had good reasons to question his rosy "aspirational" claims.
.
I ORIGINALLY INTENDED THIS POST TO GO ON THIS THREAD
no he didn't, and he explicitly asked not to be held to that number.
He talked about it and qualified his position you dumb fuck.....Seems that trump talked about it and declared if only 100K died....that would be a win!!!!! A win for what .....and the fucking dumb ass rat will applaud what a great job he did!!!!!
The Maddening Stage of Waiting
March 30, 2020 at 7:42 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 5 Comments
Axios:
“We wait and watch Wuhan and China to see if life really does return to normal once the virus is contained. The global economy hinges on this light at the end of the tunnel.
“We wait and watch Italy to see when its daily death rate peaks, plateaus and then plunges. This will give us a sense of how long highly concentrated outbreaks elsewhere might last.
“We wait to see when New York hits its apex (two to three weeks, experts say) and watch how bad it gets. We also watch New Orleans and Detroit to see if New York is an early indicator or an anomaly.”
He never said Easter was a prediction. He used the word hopeful. That's why he got I to the argument with Peter Alexander. Stop inventing things he did not say.
In order to get to 100,000 deaths in the US, the average daily number of deaths would have to be 3,248 people.
In New York's worst day it never came close to that. In the entire US it never came close to that. So 100,000 deaths is highly unlikely and that's what Dr. Fauci was saying.
He never said Easter was a prediction. He used the word hopeful. That's why he got I to the argument with Peter Alexander. Stop inventing things he did not say.
liberals prefer a president who is more of a prophet of doom.
they loved jimmy carter and his malaise speech, and they adored 0linsky when he told them a dogshit economy was our new normal.
liberals are by nature angry, sad and pathetic. they're fucking miserable and cannot stand anyone who does not go through life as miserable as they are.
God forbid in a time of crisis this president seeks to inspire a little confidence and tamp down fears that could lead to panic.
FDA approves us of the drug Pres. Trump.has been speaking off for weeks.
The Dr's and scientist at the FDA finally get on board in this war.
The POS James said...
it's okay now for you to admit that Fauci DID offer his opinion that the number of Covid-19 deaths might be as high as 100,000 or even 200,000. the POS
Actually he said based on modeling the number could be from 80,000 to 2.2 million.
And he has said modeling is an imperfect science and he would not feel comfortable giving a number.
I think what Trump is doing is brilliant. People will keep to "social distancing" and the other "steps" more than ever. This can only help. He put out a high bar that everyone is determined to be way under.
He has a full pipeline of possible "game changers" and has given them more time.
And is it just me or did anyone notice besides not doubling over the last 2 days (which was false anyway) the rate of deaths increasing actually decreased yesterday from my numbers at least (I've been jotting some down each morning when I get up along with some financial indicators I keep track of). Haven't seen numbers for NY hospital admissions.
WE WILL WIN.
Actually the FDA approval was historically fast. It usually takes forever.
And he has said modeling is an imperfect science and he would not feel comfortable giving a number.
actually firm number
Well Reverend...
Since 80,000 people died of the flu two years ago, even if this coronavirus hits 100,000 it's not the doomsday scenario that most on the left have been predicting.
My Governor was still maintaining that between 25K and 50K would die in Minnesota (and that it's just a matter of when they die). That projects out to the between 1.5 and 3 million deaths nationally.
But now that we have a model that we can look at, we can start to compare the raw numbers to the model and see it is all on the same page.
Also the number of recoveries (4,865) is finally starting to gain some momentum. It was zero into last week.
And I loved the attitude of the NYC nurse last night on 60 minutes. She said the staff usually couldn't wait to leave and go about their business but now when she's home she just wants to get back. Sounds like a band of "brothers" during an actual war.
Very inspiring.
You guys better start trying to convince Trump that there is no reason for him to start bragging about and taking credit for how tremendously good it will be if the number of deaths is "only" 100,000.
Cuomo has done a great job of expressing appreciation for the courageous work of all the responders.
Florida Is Only State to Receive Everything It Asked For
March 30, 2020 at 8:54 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment
Many states have requested ventilators, face masks and other essential equipment from the federal emergency stockpile as their hospitals ramp up for the coronavirus pandemic, but only Florida has gotten 100 percent of what it asked for, the Washington Post reports.
____________
OF COURSE, THAT has NOTHING to do with the fact that without Florida's electoral votes, Trump's chances of reelection are almost zero.
Fox News Fears Coverage Opened Network Up to Lawsuits
March 30, 2020 at 8:48 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 20 Comments
Gabriel Sherman: “When I’ve been talking to Fox insiders over the last few days, there’s a real concern inside the network that their early downplaying of the coronavirus actually exposes Fox News to potential legal action by viewers who maybe were misled and actually have died from this. I’ve heard Trish Regan’s being taken off the air is, you know, reflective of this concern that Fox News is in big trouble by downplaying this virus.”
“I think this is a case where Fox’s coverage, if it actually winds up being proved that people died because of it, this is a new terrain in terms of Fox being possibly held liable for their actions.”
So according to James, we should convince Trump to not do something he is not doing. Alrighty then.
Cuomo has done a great job of expressing appreciation for the courageous work of all the responders.
nothing smacks of appreciation quite like releasing a pack of child rapists from prison.
i'm sure you can relate, pederast.
Goodness. Viewers of Fox News whose loved ones died because of Fox's misleading coverage the virus danger might actually be able to sue.
Could Ch be sued?
...even if this coronavirus hits 100,000 it's not the doomsday scenario that most on the left have been predicting.
but it needs to be because orange man bad, and we must remove orange man.
the more death, the better.
Goddard, political_lire and the POS james who posts every times they fart (even late "news in their usual biased format) is getting beyond ridiculous.
Every morning he gets up and blindly posts whatever the blog has.
All day.
I think he actually enjoys being called a FUCKING ASSHOLE.
and he is
1. Florida has the most at risk people per capita than any other state in the nation. and
2. There request were for more realistic. They didn't ask for more than they really needed.
Things that were omitted from the story.
Cuomo’s Favorability Soars
March 30, 2020 at 6:46 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 81 Comments
A new Siena College poll in New York finds Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s favorability rating has soared to 71%, up 27 points in just a month to its highest level since early 2013.
That’s driven entirely by his response to COVID-19, where a stunning 87% of the public approves of his handling of the situation. His support is so broad that even 70% of Republicans approve of his work on the virus.
If FOX can get sued, Goddard, CNN, the Washington Post, New York Times etc will be sued out of business. And they currently are being sued. Any mention of that?
Bring it on.
And btw ask CNN how they did with their Covington kids story.
U.S. Allows Emergency Use of Drug Trump Backed
March 30, 2020 at 8:25 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 17 Comments
“A drug President Trump backed as a possible ‘game changer’ in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic received an emergency-use designation from U.S. regulators, even as signs of risk continued to mount,” Bloomberg reports.
____________
Despite the risk, I would welcome any use of a drug that actually proves effective.
In my opinion the problem with Cuomo, who is a much better candidate than Biden, is Cuomo knows he cannot actually win against Trump. And so he won't be the sacrificial lamb and run.
He'll leave that to Biden.
Why don't you try to keep somewhat on topic asshole ?
Thought I'd make you feel good pederast.
*spit*
ROFLMFAO !!!
changing history the POS james said:
Despite the risk, I would welcome any use of a drug that actually proves effective.
You were posting how this was killing people and Trump had no business being hopeful about this just a few days ago.
What an asshole.
There request were for more realistic. They didn't ask for more than they really needed.
so desantis didn't demand that trump produce 30,000 ventilators out of thin air?
no kidding.
sanity vs. childish panic for dramatic effect.
refreshing.
U.S. Allows Emergency Use of Drug Trump Backed
That has always been the case james and fucking daddy.....There is a hardship exemption that allowed quite a few people to be treated already with it......!!!!! As for daddy, your moronic posts prove why you support trump blindly!!!!!
so desantis didn't demand that trump produce 30,000
Which proves what you dumb fuck????? No one knows how many will be needed......do they......trump especially since he relies on his gut for direction....and with the amount of CH4 in his gut.....that is a lot of gas!!!!!!
lo iq said:
There is a hardship exemption that allowed quite a few people to be treated already with it.
Wrong again lo iq
It was being used off-label since it was already an approved drug. Hardship had nothing to do with it.
You may be "thinking" about the compassionate use order Trump signed with experimental drugs.
You really need to stay out of any intelligent discussions and stick to your BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ROFLMFAO !!!
100K to 200K Deaths Is ‘Best Case Scenario’
March 30, 2020 at 9:41 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment
Dr. Deborah Birx told NBC News there would likely be at least 100,000 to 200,000 deaths linked to the coronavirus in the United States.
She noted that’s the best case scenario:
“If we do things together well, almost perfectly, we could get in the range of 100,000 to 200,000 fatalities…. The best case scenario would be 100% of Americans doing precisely what is required, but we’re not sure… that all of America is responding in a uniform way to protect one another.”
_______________
I guess she didn't really say that either.
so according to asshat gabe sherman, fox is liable and could be sued.
hmmm...
ok, then let's add the rest of the media to the lawsuit...
The Media's Top Lies and Spins About COVID-19
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/03/29/the_medias_top_lies_and_spins_about_covid-19.html
Taegan Goddard farted
7 minutes later it appears here by the waterboy.
Obviously the task force is putting out a number that will keep people vigilant and I expect one they figure to greatly keep under.
And keep people united in the fight.
Brilliant.
fox is liable and could be sued.
You mean like trump and his campaign do all the time?????? Asshat loser!!!!
The Media's Top Lies and Spins About COVID-19
That's quite a lengthy list and the article also describes the POS "pastor's" GODdard
The media distorts and misleads, takes statements out of context, treats assumptions as facts, and in general, seems to want to sow as much rancor and fear as possible. This is irresponsible journalism in a time when the nation needs just the opposite.
Hey "pastor" you missed one:
Clyburn Doesn’t See Biden Picking Stacey Abrams
March 30, 2020 at 9:30 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 47 Comments
Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC) was asked by the Financial Times whether he thought Joe Biden would pick Stacey Abrams as his running mate.
Said Clyburn: “I doubt it. There’s something to be said for somebody who has been out there.”
Clyburn does, however, want to see a black woman on the ticket and has his eyes on another Georgia politician. “There is a young lady right there in Georgia who I think would make a tremendous VP candidate, and that’s the mayor of Atlanta, Keisha Lance Bottoms.”
"Biden/Bottoms" Will that be a bumper sticker or the Election day Headlines ?
ROFLMFAO !!!
Taegan Goddard farted
with the pederast's nose lodged deep in goddard's fart box.
Taegan Goddard farted
And you give a shit why????/ No different than the tripe you constantly post except Goddard is factual, you just post assahollic opinions because you can't think on your own!!!!!!!
The Media's Top Lies and Spins About COVID-19
YOU MEAN LIKE TRUMP CLAIMING HE HAD CONTROL???? THAT 15 WOULD SOON BE ZERO???? THAT SUMMER IT WILL DISAPPEAR???? Rat the dumb fuck loser tossing BS at the BSer in chief!!~!!!!!!! bwaaaaaapaaaaaa!!!!!
YOU MEAN LIKE TRUMP CLAIMING HE HAD CONTROL
No like Democrats and the media demanding that the travel ban (that our task force doctors said likely saved thousands of lives) - was unnecessary and racist.
Those sorts of things are dangerous!
No like Democrats and the media demanding that the travel ban
Ah Lil Schitty uses the indian cunts logic.........lies through his teeth Dayum....all you do is make shit up loser!!!!!
BTW,,,,,asshole.....Trump is in charge, no one else.....blame all you want....the fish stinks from the head down!!!!!!!
Well Denny...
So far the death toll from Trump being optimistic is exactly "zero".
The amount of deaths he saved by going against Democrats on the China and Europe travel bans is in the thousands!
So looks like he is quite a bit ahead the game, huh?
Yep.
Biden openly mocked Trump for the China Ban.
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