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This appears to be counterintuitive to the numbers reported for yesterday by Worldometer which showed a significant jump and the highest number to date (the numbers from the CDC will not be out for a few hours).
However, one of the things I found odd was that they shut off the Monday numbers at around 5:00 CST and suddenly they were counting new numbers as part of Tuesday. On the flip side when I checked last night at 10:00 CST they were still collecting Tuesday numbers. It seems like they may had shortened Monday and added some of Monday night's reported deaths into Tuesdays numbers.
The CDC also played a little catch up yesterday by adding in some additional reported numbers that were not specifically from yesterday, making their reported numbers from yesterday basically irrelevant to the day to day reporting (they do not drill much into anything other than the amount of deaths to date). For now, the major reporting services are all within a couple hundred of each other and those differences appear to be mostly based on the timing of reports.
Either way, if you average it all out, we are still coming in consistently lower than the original chart that I am still tracking (that had the numbers at around 95,000). Not sure if we are under enough to justify the original number dropping from 95,000 to 60,000 but then again, it's not my model.
57 comments:
Bernie Sanders drops out.
Suspends his campaign.
The latest #OrangeManBad shrieking from the Democrat Party/mainstream media complex is that everybody knew that the coronavirus was a serious problem in January and the Mango Mussolini didn't take it seriously enough. Which is kind of funny on its face, as they've had their hair on fire for 3 years about Trump being an eeeevil fascist dictator who intends to take over the government and rule by decree, only now they're whining that Trump didn't use dictatorial powers to stop the spread of the virus.
So now it's "Trump didn't do enough."
In order to establish this narrative, they want you to pay no attention to the fact that back in 2018, President Trump established a National Biodefense Strategy specifically to improve the speed of action for any biological risk to U.S. Citizens. Both manufactured and naturally occuring threats were included.
They also want you to forget that, following the initial reports from China, President Trump set up a unified task force to coordinate all response efforts across the totality of government.
That was on January 30th.
And they don't want you to remember Trump temporarily suspended foreign nationals considered high risk from CV from entering the country, also on January 30th.
Also on that day, HHS Secretary Alex Azar declared a nationwide public health emergency.
The following restrictions were put into effect:
--Any U.S. citizen returning to the United States who was in Hubei Province in the previous 14 days was/is subject to up to 14 days of mandatory quarantine.
--Any U.S. citizen returning to the United States who was in the rest of Mainland China within the previous 14 days was put through proactive entry health screening at a select number of ports of entry, and up to 14 days of monitored self-quarantine.
--All foreign nationals, other than U.S. citizens and permanent residents, who traveled in China within the prior 14 days were denied entry into the United States.
These restrictions went into effect on Feb. 2nd, and they're still in effect today.
The response from the Democrat Party/mainstream media complex was to call the President a racist and a xenophobe who was "overreacting" to the CV threat. See the headline anthology below and watch this clip to hear what the Democrats were saying at the time, and compare that with what they're saying now.
The Democrats' attempts to completely rewrite history on the fly is unbelievable. The ink is scarcely dry on the paper and they're already claiming it said something else. They don't seem to realize that the internet is forever.
http://ace.mu.nu/archives/386712.php
Govenor Cuomo begging for Millions of Trumps suggested chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine.
Bernie Sanders drops out.
Suspends his campaign.
Good! Democrats unite! You have nothing to lose but Trump's attempted dictatorship!
Very important post by RRB.
CHTRUTH: According to the new chart, the reported deaths could be down to zero by mid June.
JAMES: Careful, Ch. The last time Trump made a zero prediction, he looked like a fool.
_________
CHTRUTH: ...but it is not my model.
JAMES: No, but it IS your desire to contradict the advice of trained epidemic experts in favor of opening up the economy to the big business interests that you Republicans must seek to please, even if that means polluting our planet and even killing American citizens.
You're pretty transparent on that.
James , post garbage and very unimportant dribble of a stupid old man.
"means polluting our planet "Stupid d man..
James, do you own a home and all the modern appliances?
KansasDemocrat, did you ever actually call Obama "a black monkey in the White House" and his wife "a cheap Chicago whore," as James has sometimes said?
as my governor meanders from tantrum/photo-op to tantrum/photo-op, he manages that schedule with w $15,500.00 wristwatch.
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/york-governor-andrew-cuomo-spotted-150050815.html
China Virus, hitting blacks and Hispanics the hardest.
Jealous, Rat?
You never answered us on the "The Future of Elections" thread.
Blacks and hispanics, unite! Overthrow Trump who told you you had nothing to fear!
Arkansas Mayors Denied Lockdown Power
April 8, 2020 at 11:19 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 44 Comments
Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R) said that “the state will help cities enforce restrictions on social interaction designed to slow the spread of the coronavirus, but he won’t allow them to impose stay-at-home orders,” the Arkansas Democrat Gazette reports.
______________
So do Republican governors have dictatorial powers over local mayors who want to protect their citizens the best way possible?
Hey stupid it wasn’t rat’s post you fucking pederast
James has Bidenitis
More good news
New Data Shows U.S. Companies Are Definitely Leaving China
Actually Reverend...
This is the same model that your hero over at political.wire referred to this morning that you were spamming about. It's also one of the same models used by the task force that has been guiding them.
Question for you, Reverend.
How did you get this model to being a prediction made by Trump?
Are you just that stupid or does the bad orange man turn your brain to mush?
"Jealous, Rat?" was directed at 11:08AM,
so it WAS rat's post.
And neither he nor you had answered on that thread.
But now you, Caliphrate have at last answered on that thread, and I have pinned your ears back there.
And, because I am not weak and immature like you, I do it without having to call you names.
:-)
I didn't say the model made Trump's prediction, Ch.
Trump himself made it, as everyone is well aware whose brain is not composed of "wish he hadn't said it" Republican mush.
🇱🇷Approval of President Trump’s handling of the economy rose to 52 percent, the highest level of his presidency, CNBC’s “All America” survey showed Wednesday. That is up from 49 percent in December.🇱🇷
Trump himself made it, as everyone is well aware whose brain is not composed of "wish he hadn't said it"
Trump was citing the ACTUAL MODEL numbnuts...
The ACTUAL MODEL showed that deaths would be near zero as early as June 1st... The same model suggests that deaths could be under ten a day by mid-May and we could now be death free by late-May.
Here I thought you wanted the President listening to the experts and citing the science? Or is that the "wrong science" to be promoting?
jealous about a $15K watch?
nope.
curious as to how a supposed public servant affords a $15K watch on a $225K salary?
quite.
you're not half as clever as you think you are, pederast.
and you remain cordially invited to go fuck yourself.
Count it, "if they die with Covus-19".
That is pure non -sense.
Trump was citing the ACTUAL MODEL numbnuts...
heh.
the best part of this little debate is that trump's original goal of having the curve flattened by Easter has a very good chance of being accurate.
Count it, "if they die with Covus-19".
That is pure non -sense.
it sure seems that way. i would have thought that the docs and scientists involved in this situation were interested in accurate data.
at this rate, someone who dies in a car crash whose corpse tests positive for covid in the morgue will be counted among the covid death data.
Ch, come on now. We are not fools, you and I. Neither of us are "numbnuts."
Don't distort the way Rat and Cali did about Captain Crozier on the Future of Elections thread.
You know very well that Trump says things that have NO basis in scientific fact. He constantly had Fauci and Birx pulling out their hair. AND CONTRARY to what you just said, HE DID NOT say we'd be down to "near zero" by June 1. On FEB. 26 he said it would be "in a few days."
Get real. These are serious matters.
_________
Jan. 22: “ We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. We have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.” — Trump in a CNBC interview.
Jan. 30: “We think we have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at this moment — five — and those people are all recuperating successfully. But we’re working very closely with China and other countries, and we think it’s going to have a very good ending for us … that I can assure you.” — Trump in a speech in Michigan.
Feb. 10: “Now, the virus that we’re talking about having to do — you know, a lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat — as the heat comes in. Typically, that will go away in April. We’re in great shape though. We have 12 cases — 11 cases, and many of them are in good shape now.” — Trump at the White House.
Feb. 14: “There’s a theory that, in April, when it gets warm — historically, that has been able to kill the virus. So we don’t know yet; we’re not sure yet. But that’s around the corner.” — Trump in speaking to National Border Patrol Council members.
Feb. 23: “We have it very much under control in this country.” — Trump in speaking to reporters.
Feb. 24: “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. We are in contact with everyone and all relevant countries. CDC & World Health have been working hard and very smart. Stock Market starting to look very good to me!” — Trump in a tweet.
Feb. 26: “So we’re at the low level. As they get better, we take them off the list, so that we’re going to be pretty soon at only five people. And we could be at just one or two people over the next short period of time. So we’ve had very good luck.” — Trump at a White House briefing.
Feb. 26: “And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS IS GOING TO BE DOWN TO CLOSE TO ZERO, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done.” — Trump at a press conference.
Feb. 26: “I think every aspect of our society should be prepared. I don’t think it’s going to come to that, especially with the fact that we’re going down, not up. We’re going very substantially down, not up.” — Trump at a press conference, when asked if “U.S. schools should be preparing for a coronavirus spreading.”
Feb. 27: “It’s going to disappear. One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear.” — Trump at a White House meeting with African American leaders.
Feb. 29: “And I’ve gotten to know these professionals. They’re incredible. And everything is under control. I mean, they’re very, very cool. They’ve done it, and they’ve done it well. Everything is really under control.” — Trump in a speech at the CPAC conference outside Washington, D.C.
March 4: “[W]e have a very small number of people in this country [infected]. We have a big country. The biggest impact we had was when we took the 40-plus people [from a cruise ship]. … We brought them back. We immediately quarantined them. But you add that to the numbers. But if you don’t add that to the numbers, we’re talking about very small numbers in the United States.” — Trump at a White House meeting with airline CEOs.
March 4: “Well, I think the 3.4% is really a false number.” — Trump in an interview on Fox News, referring to the percentage of diagnosed COVID-19 patients worldwide who had died, as reported by the World Health Organization.
IS THAT WHY HE'S DEFUNDED THEM.
March 7: “No, I’m not concerned at all. No, we’ve done a great job with it.” — Trump, when asked by reporters if he was concerned about the arrival of the coronavirus in the Washington, D.C., area.
March 9: “So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!” — Trump in a tweet.
March 10: “And we’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.” — Trump after meeting with Republican senators.
A day later, on March 11, the WHO declared the global outbreak a pandemic.
IS THAT ANOTHER REASON HE'S DEFUNDED THEM?
And then later he tried to claim he'd known it was a pandemic all along.
Get real!
" i would have thought that the docs and scientists involved in this situation were interested in accurate data. " RRB
Me too.This is GIGO science.
Pelosi Tearing up Trumps Notification to the USA of the coming virus is a classic error.
A clarification: Exact wording:
Trump didn't say it would be "down to zero in a few days."
He said that the 15 people "within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero."
If you want "accurate data," do not look among Trump's statements at 2:00PM and 2:02PM above.
You know very well that Trump says things that have NO basis in scientific fact.
Well Reverend...
You just suggested that Trump pulled the June 1st date out of his ass and every wished he hadn't said it... when it was actually based on the actual model.
Let's be clear NUMBNUTS - those in glass houses should not throw stones. We both know very well that there are just as many quotes and actions taken by Democrats discounting this virus as there are Republicans.
The states suffering (New York, New Jersey, Louisiana, Michigan, California) are all run by Democrats and in each case there were prominent Democrats downplaying the virus...
Think Bill de Blasio and Nancy Pelosi publicly demanding that people ignore it and go about their business. Publicly downplaying that being out in public put anyone at risk.
So as long as you want to PRETEND that Trump is alone in the early downplay of the virus...
You remain and will remain a NUMBNUTS!!
Well, Ch, if he was not pulling something out of his a**, how could he say "in a couple of days" when the scientific data you cited said by June 1.
I guess you and Trump ARE a numbnuts.
Please cite for us the scientific study that indicated the number would be "down close to zero within a couple of days" after Feb. 26.
We will patiently wait for you to prove you are not a numbnuts.
You said that Trump's claim was "based on the actual model."
Please supply us with that "actual model."
The many faces of James.
"numbnuts"
Or this face.
"because I am not weak and immature like you, I do it without having to call you names. "
James proves he is "weak" and "immature".
Blogger James said...
If you want "accurate data," do not look among Trump's statements at 2:00PM and 2:02PM above.
well pederast, or is it numbnuts today?
trump's statements, what i would call his rhetorical flourishes, do not count as "data" to any sane rational and thoughtful individual.
and every single asshat here and in the media who seeks to portray his comments as "data" is a fucking moron.
and the most hilarious part of your entire argument is that the actual IHME "data" has turned out to be less accurate than trump's statements.
so please, shut the fuck up and stop demanding that we respond to your asshattery.
RAT SAYS: every single asshat here and in the media who seeks to portray his comments as "data" is a fucking moron.
JAMES SAYS: DON't call Ch a fning moron, Rat. He just tried to do exactly that.
RAT SAYS: trump's statements, what i would call his rhetorical flourishes, do not count as "data" to any sane rational and thoughtful individual.
JAMES SAYS: And do not accuse Ch of not being a rational and thoughtful individual.
But actually, Rat, I agree with that statement, for I do not call them "data" either.
Unlike Ch, I and most rational, thinking people call them
exactly what they are: LIES.
Well, Ch, if he was not pulling something out of his a**, how could he say "in a couple of days" when the scientific data you cited said by June 1.
I have no fucking clue anymore what you are talking about?
Something that was said several weeks ago that is completely irrelevant today?
Or the statements Trump made over the past week or so that says we could be down to close to or zero deaths by June 1st?
because Reverend Numbnuts... I couldn't give a bigger rip what Trump, Pelosi, de Blasio, Edwards, Cuomo or anyone else said weeks ago.
IT DOESN'T MATTER!!!
except maybe to people who are numbnuts.
LOL
So now Ch has gone from defending Trump's statements as based on firm data to admitting they are not, in any way.
Well, THAT's progress!
But Ch really should not descend into such a form of name calling.
It does indeed show weakness.
Rat, Cali, and Ch call on me to prove what I say, and when I do, they get mad.
I call on Rat, Cali, and Ch to prove what they say, and when they can't, they get mad.
"Rich,"
to quote good ole Loretta.
Yeah and you still didn't disprove the Navy says a CO has total responsibility for his boat.
It’s not anger, you’re just too stupid to carry on a thought
It’s more pity
Rat, Cali, and Ch call on me to prove what I say, and when I do, they get mad.
pederast, since i discount what you post by 100% because of the asshat source, i most certainly won't waste my time asking you to "prove" what is pure bullshit to begin with.
THE BROOKINGS PRESS
ORDER FROM CHAOS
Why Crozier was correct
Michael E. O’Hanlon
Tuesday, April 7, 2020
Who said that internal Navy politics couldn’t make for good melodrama?
Michael E. O’Hanlon
Senior Fellow - Foreign Policy Director of Research -
Last week, Acting Secretary of the Navy Thomas Modly took it upon himself to fire Captain Brett Crozier as the skipper of the aircraft carrier the U.S.S. Teddy Roosevelt. Crozier had circulated a letter asking that the ship, with many dozens of its 5,000 sailors already testing positive for coronavirus after a port visit in Vietnam, not continue on its scheduled deployment. The Navy apparently agreed with Crozier that the risks of turning the Roosevelt into a petri dish, in cruise-ship fashion, were not worth the benefits, and sent the ship to Guam instead, where most sailors were to disembark and self-quarantine for two weeks.
Still, Secretary Modly was not happy. He apparently viewed the alarmist nature of Crozier’s remarks, and the relatively wide circulation of his letter, as out of line — so much so that he traveled all the way to Guam to berate Crozier again, in front of his former crew. But many Navy officers, like former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael Mullen, have defended Crozier’s concern for his crew’s well-being. The crew itself gave Crozier a rousing round of applause as he disembarked the ship for the last time.
Modly may be right that Crozier’s words could have been better chosen, and more discreet. While Crozier was right to say that the United States is not at war (at least not in East Asia), we are constantly pushing back against Chinese assertiveness and deterring North Korea there. These missions remain essential, COVID-19 or not, and if more U.S. Navy ship crews are afflicted by the virus, the United States will need to take care in how it publicly explains any future changes to its overseas presence.
Yet there is little doubt that Captain Crozier was more right than wrong. Taking care of the crew mattered more than hewing slavishly to a preset ship deployment schedule. Lest any American adversaries get the wrong idea today, it is important to explain why.
Modly’s tirade at Guam ironically risks creating the impression that in fact this temporary port call for the Roosevelt damages U.S. deterrent capabilities more than it really does. As such, despite my personal appreciation for much of what Modly has done during his tenure with the Navy (and as he outlined in a public event we held together at Brookings this past winter), I think there was no choice for the Trump administration but to accept his resignation.
But back to the broader strategic questions at hand:
The United States already had three other aircraft carriers in forward waters, in addition to the Roosevelt — two near the Persian Gulf and one in Japan. This is above average. Although today’s U.S. Navy has 10 deployable large-deck aircraft carriers (each carrying about 75 aircraft, and escorted by several other ships in any carrier battle group), only two or three are typically on station. Much of an aircraft carrier’s life cycle is spent forming up crews, conducting training, working up to sea trials, transiting oceans, and then after a deployment carrying out recovery and maintenance tasks. Indeed, according to the U.S. Naval Institute, the average carrier group has been deployed less than 25% of the time since 2013 or so. Standing the Roosevelt down — while it is, in fact, still in Guam, not far away from any western Pacific emergency that might develop — thus detracts little from our broader global posture.
The Navy probably already spends too much of its time, effort, and resources maintaining a fixed deployment schedule. After all, if we ever needed to use force in a given crisis, we would likely want to create a small armada of two or more carriers in any case. Arguably, surge potential matters more than continuous presence. For example, during the North Korea crisis of 2017, the Trump administration directed three carrier battle groups to head towards Northeast Asia at once — and made sure the word got out that we were doing so. Concentrating firepower sent a more powerful message than keeping up a predictable, smaller presence.
When he was Secretary of Defense, Jim Mattis made this same point in broader terms. The 2018 National Defense Strategy asserted that the United States should be “strategically predictable but operationally unpredictable.” Mattis accordingly redirected a carrier battle group headed for the Persian Gulf to the Baltic Sea instead — giving Vladimir Putin and his top officials something to ponder. Meanwhile, land-based American airpower in the broader Gulf region was counted on to sustain deterrence in that region.
The Navy is only one instrument of American military power — and, like cruise ships, its assets and people are more vulnerable to COVID-19 outbreaks than other services, given the close quarters prevalent on warships. Soldiers and airmen/airwomen in places like Korea, Japan, Qatar, and Kuwait can fight tonight as well, even if they scale back some types of training in coming months in light of the coronavirus. Even at its very worst, COVID-19 is unlikely to afflict more than 5-10% of the main combat power of the United States at a time. The American armed forces are built to operate with that level of attrition if need be.
Secretary Modly badly overreacted, and unfortunately needed to resign. It is now time to calm this whole thing down — and to look for another important job in the Navy for Captain Crozier, who on balance did his job well. But we also need to clearly articulate, to friend and foe alike, that the American armed forces remain ready, and active globally, even in these difficult times.
Brookings Institute
Snicker
Idiot
It’s not anger, you’re just too stupid to carry on a thought
Funny coming from the UGA graduate who thinks babylon bee is a news source!!!!! BWAAAAAAPAAAAAA!!!!!!!
BROOKINGS INSTITUTE
A very reputable think tank!!!!!! Something you should try once in a while fucking dumb asshole
http://ace.mu.nu/archives/386712.php
BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!1 You really are an insufferable fucking idiot, rat
There is no doubt that the Commanding Officer of a battleship has tremendous responsibilities. One of those is caring for his crew and keeping them safe, when possible.
From the article:
...Crozier had circulated a letter asking that the ship, with many dozens of its 5,000 sailors already testing positive for coronavirus after a port visit in Vietnam, not continue on its scheduled deployment. The Navy apparently agreed with Crozier that the risks of turning the Roosevelt into a petri dish, in cruise-ship fashion, were not worth the benefits, and sent the ship to Guam instead, where most sailors were to disembark and self-quarantine for two weeks.
...there is little doubt that Captain Crozier was more right than wrong. Taking care of the crew mattered more than hewing slavishly to a preset ship deployment schedule.
__________________
Snicker at that, Caliphrate.
Meanwhile, I laugh at your discomfort.
So now Ch has gone from defending Trump's statements as based on firm data to admitting they are not, in any way.
Actually Reverend...
I have seldom given a shit what anyone "says" about Covid-19...
If I have made one thing "clear" it's that I have been judging these people on their actions, not early words.
Because pretty much EVERYONE was wrong. Almost everyone understated it and ignored it at the beginning, and then many many (of your ilk) were promoting the millions dead scenario championed by your heroes and quoted non-stop by you... as you cheerleaded for dead Americans.
So I would offer that up until probably the past two to three weeks that nobody had much of any clue what was going on, and the task force was the only true voice of reason.
All that being said...
People like Pelosi, Cuomo, di Blasio, Biden, and others... were able to navigate the herculean task of both being wrong by underestimating and by overestimating.
The same people who were out promoting that people should go about their business (because the virus was overstated) are the ones who then decided that the sky had fallen, millions would die and oh my oh my, New York needed 30,000 ventilators last week!
Oh my... why hasn't the bad orange man pulled 30,000 ventilators out of his ass and given it to New York.
Ironically we now have several state giving back the ventilators they were provided by our Federal Government because they never actually needed them, and we probably are on the hook for tens of thousands of new ones that will certainly not be needed.
If I have made one thing "clear"
The only thing you have made clear Lil Schitty is your ability to defend trump no matter how little he leads and how much he lies.....That is the sad fact, sport....!!!!! That fuck is not worth the gas he emits from his pompous obese old white ass....but you do!!!!
IT IS 'CLEAR' THAT
THOSE WHO HAVE erred MORE on the side of irrationally and impractically and even dangerously assuring people that everything was soon going to be alright are the GOPers connected to Trump.
TRUMP HAS BEEN AND IS YOUR WORST CHEERLEADER.
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