Thursday, April 9, 2020

Does Trump's reelection changes hinge on the Covid-19 death toll?

So this all is pretty obvious to anyone watching closely. There was a ground swell of fear related to the first concept that the Covid-19 virus could infect tens if not hundreds of millions of Americans and possibly kill millions.


This is where the President, the task force featuring Dr Fauci and Dr Birx came into play. People felt reassured, the country was closing up. There was some glimmer of hope that the pandemic would not be so deadly.

The President's approvals started going up, not only in regards to his handling of the situation (which included putting together one of histories greatest response teams), but also in regards to his overall approval. Since his approval has consistently remained in the nineties with Republicans and extremely high with the conservative leaning independents, that rise in approvals came almost exclusively from Democrats and left leaning independents. I saw one poll where Trump had risen to over 30% approval with Democrats. Unheard of.

Then three things happened that started to peel away that new support.

  • The first was a realization from the Trump hating media that the task force and briefings were helping the President. This pushed off a series of fake news stories in the left leaning media that started with an alleged tension between Trump and Dr Fauci (who he picked to lead the medical side of things), which has been downplayed and denied by everyone involved. We also had national news telecasts provide fake footage of people dying in an Italian hospital and then dishonestly portraying that it was happening in New York. Most recently ABC news has promoted a debunked story about how the US Government knew about the coronavirus months ago, and that the President ignored all warnings. And these are just a fraction of the fake news stories that have been pretty much made up as we go along. 
  • The second was the barrage of complaints from blue state Governors that the President and the Federal Government was not doing enough. This charge was led by the ever-complaining Andrew Cuomo who demanded that he needed 30,000 ventilators yesterday or thousands would die. Turns out he needed 5000 (not 30,000) and to date not a single person has apparently died from lack of equipment. Either way, every Sunday morning talk show, and every CNN and MSNBC broadcast was plum full of Democratic Governors demanding that Trump was personally killing people with his lack of response.
  • Lastly, was the chilling news that Dr Fauci believed that as many as 200,000 Americans would die. While that is not the sort of number (millions) that floated around at the beginning of all of this, it was still a sobering number coming from someone who most people respected and believed. This was taken by many liberal news outlets as proof positive that Trump had been "downplaying" the threat. 

So where do things stand today? The fact is that most of the Trump bump is gone, and it's almost entirely due to Democrats deciding once again he is the bad orange man. This is not a hard thing to figure out considering most Democrats are pulled around by their noses by the left leaning media and are very likely to be manipulated by blue state Governors telling them that the President is killing people.

But at the end of the day, there are still enough reasonable people who will look back and actually sort out right from wrong, truth from fake news, and ultimately judge our response on the actual tangible numbers, with the most important of course being the death toll. The further we get out from being in the middle of this, the easier it will be to determine who actually was right, wrong, responsible or irresponsible.

Let's be clear. If we end up with 60,000 people dying from this virus (about an average seasonal flu number) and there are no actual tangible proven examples of people dying due to lack of equipment or lack of response, then I suspect that the President will come out of this looking better than many of the naysayers and complainers who demanded that much worse was going to happen (because of Trump). In other words, the downside of effectively doing everything you can to wipe out a Trump bump only sticks if your claims turn out to be true.

Three or four months from now when our economy is wrecked and we possibly don't see any significant difference between the states that shut down (New York, Michigan, Washington) and those that didn't (Florida, Arkansas, Wyoming, the Dakotas) then where do we stand? What if it turns out that the red states that didn't shut down actually turn out to have done better than those blue states that did shut down? Will there be repercussions for those people who may have been overzealous in their responses?

On the flip side, if this thing keeps going, and we have things still spreading well into the summer then we have a different issue. If the virus remains active in the hot spots, starts to spread into areas that didn't shut down becoming a very real 50 state problem, then we may actually start to run out of equipment and it could be blamed on a poor federal response.  If ultimately the death toll hits that 200,000 mark, then there may be very little hope that the President will be reelected. At that point all of the finger pointers will demand that they were right and who will care about the economy?

Time will tell. But I think there is a real strong possibility that this Covid-19 crisis will ultimately decide the Presidential election. At the end of the day the numbers will be the numbers and no amount of spinning (from either side) will change it. But people will try. I guarantee you that.

45 comments:

anonymous said...

He will be judged on his competence.....Right now that trend line is decreasing as his poll bump is gone and if he pushes opening up too early and a second wave hits.........you know the answer.....BWAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!

anonymous said...

BTW. goat fucker.. McConnell blocked the Small business bill.....not nancy.....again R's playing games with peoples lives for fun....whatta fucking idiot!!!

Myballs said...

You forgot the phoney report that Trump fired the entire pandemic respibae team in 2018. My liberal relatives keep reposting it on Facebook. But it never happened. The Rear Admiral in charge left so the rest were reassigned...by Jon Bolton actually.

Indy voters see the fake news just like they always have.

Anonymous said...

"CBS 

Senate Democrats block $250 billion expansion of small business loan program"

Commonsense said...

Fox News Poll: Trump job approval hits new high as voters rally during crisis

Approval of President Trump’s job performance inches up to a record high in the latest Fox News Poll, as voters rally to both the White House and Congress in the fight against coronavirus.

Amid widespread concerns about the virus’s spread and personally getting infected, 49 percent approve of the job Trump is doing as president. That’s up from 48 percent two weeks ago and 47 percent in late February.

Forty-nine percent of voters disapprove, marking only the third time in Fox News polling that fewer than half rate him negatively.


Normally, it's not that big a deal but the Fox News poll has been historically unfavorable to Trump. So it's somewhat significant .

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Interesting,
but on the RealClearPolitics aggregate
he still went from
-5.1 DISAPPROVAL yesterday
to
-5.2 DISAPPROVAL today.

And scroll down and look at the graph.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

I guess the -6 on the Rasmussen
(so often emphasized by Ch and others here)
must have hurt him.

Anonymous said...

NO To Voting By Mail.

35 States Have Voter ID Laws.

Anonymous said...

James, do you blame China for the Pandemic?

Anonymous said...

Michigan Attorney General.

"
See new Tweets

Tweet

Dana Nessel

@dananessel

·

Apr 7

I just can’t hear about one more black health care worker, police officer or bus driver die while getting a barrage of complaints from white folks outraged because they can’t go golfing.

Quote Tweet

Dana Nessel

@dananessel

· Apr 7

The high rates of infection and death within our African-American population from #COVIDー19 is staggering and horrific. It further establishes how AA’s are treated like garbage when it comes to equal opportunity and access to health care, housing, education and employment"

One question , what are AA's?

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Whenever a President takes aggressive action against a perceived foe, the nation usually rallies significantly around that President.

We saw that with H. W. Bush in the first Iraq war (up to around 82% approval)
and even with Geo. W. Bush's invasion of Iraq
around 76% approval.

Nothing similar happened with Trump's aggressive action against the coronavirus. His bump in the polls was comparatively mild, lifting him to levels only slightly better than he had long been.

And that bump is now gone.

To blame that entirely on media coverage is not convincing, for it largely reflects an unpopularity for which no one but the President himself is responsible, and which he aggravated by making numerous wildly inaccurate and misleading statements by which he intended to self promote and aggrandize his actions.

That has significantly backfired, and is continuing to backfire now.

Commonsense said...

Man Brutal Ad

Anonymous said...

Nice cold start to another wonderful day in Fly Over Country.

Hope your is full of friends and travel.

Myballs said...

Trump will never get to 70% because democrats, the party of hatred, would rather see the nation crumble than see Trump do well.

Myballs said...

Barr and Durham are close to indictments. Comey, Brennan, Powers in particular should be worried.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Balls calls the Democrats "the party of hatred."

Trump called their concern over the seriousness of the coronavirus threat "the Democrats' new hoax."

Myballs said...

Actually he called their rhetoric the new hoax.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Typical Balls bullshit.

Tell us, Balls, precisely what that 'rhetoric' was.
What were the exact words, the exact statements,
that Trump was referring to?

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

While we wait for Balls to answer. And wait. And wait.

Views on Trump’s Handling of Crisis Slip Again
April 10, 2020 at 7:55 am EDT By Taegan Goddard

A new CBS News poll finds views on President Trump’s handling of the outbreak response have ticked down for the second consecutive week. The president is seen doing a good job by 47%,
down four points from 51% last week
and 53% the prior week.

Now is the first time more say he’s doing a bad job than a good one.
___________

New York Times:
“Polls suggest that faith in the president to handle the outbreak has slipped among some crucial voting blocs in the general election.”

__________

Probably including among the voting bloc of blacks who are dying at an inordinate rate from the Democrat's 'rhetoric.'

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

100,000 Deaths
April 10, 2020 at 7:28 am EDT By Taegan Goddard

Reuters:
“In all likelihood the COVID-19 illness associated with the new coronavirus will claim its 100,000th death during the next 24 hours. From the report of the first fatality in early January, it took a month to record 1,000 deaths and a further month to hit 10,000. That was just three weeks ago.

“The death toll now compares with that of London’s Great Plague in the mid-1660s, which killed an estimated 100,000 people, about a third of the city’s population at the time.”
_______
A rhetorical hoax!

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

(Actually, I hope/wish it were.)

C.H. Truth said...

It was only a matter of time before liberals started quoting the world-wide death toll in order to make is sound more dire...

Anonymous said...

Democrats are always attacking the US Constitution. Religious Freedoms.

Myballs said...

Their rhetoric - opposing whatever Trump says and does. Like calling him a racist and xenophobe for stopping all flights from China only 10 days after the first recorded case in the U.S., only to later bash Trump by saying he did it too slow.

It's like whatever amount he proposes in a budget to fight this, dems answer will be to say it doesn't go far enough and ask for more.

Anonymous said...

Of course they have to CHT.

Anonymous said...

weak James always wrong.

"Trump called their concern over the seriousness of the coronavirus threat "the Democrats' new hoax."

Myballs corrected you James.

Anonymous said...

The Broken Model China Virus.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Myballs was struck speechless.
We're still waiting for his answer.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

American Democracy May Be Dying
April 10, 2020 at 8:52 am EDT By Taegan Goddard

Paul Krugman:
“Yet the scariest news of the past week didn’t involve either epidemiology or economics; it was the travesty of an election in Wisconsin, where the Supreme Court required that in-person voting proceed despite the health risks and the fact that many who requested absentee ballots never got them.

“Why was this so scary? Because it shows that America as we know it may not survive much longer. The pandemic will eventually end; the economy will eventually recover. But democracy, once lost, may never come back. And we’re much closer to losing our democracy than many people realize.”
_____________

No! Enough of us realize it to defeat Trump in the next election.

Anonymous said...

🤣😅😄😄😃😃😄😅🤣😅😄😄😃
Krugman
😄😅🤣😉😃😂😃😄😅🤣😉😁😂😃😁😁

Myballs said...

Waiting?? I answered.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Not really.

Myballs said...

Sure I did. The rhetoric from the dems is tbe new hoax. I can't help it if you don't understand.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

FROM YESTERDAY
Trump Allies Think Daily Briefings Are Hurting Him
April 9, 2020 at 8:42 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard

New York Times:
“As unemployment soars and the death toll skyrockets, and new polls show support for the president’s handling of the crisis sagging, White House allies and Republican lawmakers increasingly believe the briefings are hurting the president more than helping him. Many view the sessions as a kind of original sin from which all of his missteps flow, once he gets through his prepared script and turns to his preferred style of extemporaneous bluster and invective.

“With only intermittent attempts to adapt to a moment of crisis, Mr. Trump is effectively wagering that he can win re-election in the midst of a national emergency on a platform of polarization.

“In interviews, Republican lawmakers, administration officials and members of his re-election campaign said they wanted Mr. Trump to limit his error-filled appearances at the West Wing briefings and move more aggressively to prepare for the looming recession. Some even suggested he summon a broader range of the country’s leaders, including former Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, in an all-hands-on-deck moment to respond to the national emergency.”

_________
Right. Maybe George W. and Barack COULD rescue Trump from himself. (Not gonna happen. Trump is incapable of that kind of decency.)

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

FROM TODAY
GOP Worries Trump Is Tanking His Re-Election
April 10, 2020 at 9:30 am EDT By Taegan Goddard

“Republicans are increasingly concerned not only about President Trump’s daily briefings but also his broader plan to ease the nation out of the virus crisis and back to work. This concern is acute — and spreading,” Axios reports.

“Trump can easily address the briefing worries by doing fewer, but the lackluster bounce-back planning is what worries Republicans most.

“Some think he has only weeks to figure it out. The consequences of failure would be a November defeat, some warn.”
_______________
Good! Obsessive Orange man bad. November defeat good.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

But if you Repugnics REALLY want something to worry about, HERE IT IS!!!

BARACK IS COMING!!!

Barack Obama Won the Democratic Primary

April 10, 2020 at 6:35 am EDT By Taegan Goddard

Ryan Lizza:
“In the end, the most influential politician of 2020 may be the one who has been the most silent.

"With Bernie Sanders exiting the race and Joe Biden taking on the mantle of presumptive nominee, the man who hovered quietly over the race for more than a year, Barack Obama, will soon return to the political fray.

“Obama wanted Sanders to have the day to himself and so he refrained from speaking (or tweeting) publicly on Wednesday. But Obama had always said his role in the primaries would be to unite the party when it’s over, and he’s been in close contact with both campaigns as the pandemic both froze the race without a clear victor and also made it more obvious that Biden would eventually prevail."

IN OTHER WORDS, LOOK OUT GOP! OBAMA WILL BE ON YOUR CASE
-- AND SOON!

C.H. Truth said...

“Yet the scariest news of the past week didn’t involve either epidemiology or economics; it was the travesty of an election in Wisconsin, where the Supreme Court required that in-person voting proceed despite the health risks and the fact that many who requested absentee ballots never got them.

Nonsense...

The USSC did absolutely no such thing.

They decided ONE ISSUE and one issue only. That was whether or not ballots would be accepted if they were post marked past election day.

While I understand the attempts to salvage some sense of reasonableness to the unreasonable concept that Wisconsin refused (until the day before) to post pone their election...

This was all pretty simple. Courts do not get to "change" election laws on the eve of elections. April 7th was election day. You needed to get your ballots post marked by April 7th if you wanted to vote absentee. That was the law, that is the law, that remains the law, and laws cannot just be changed willy nilly because a judge says so.


So if Krugman has an issue with people being forced to go out and vote during a medical lock down then he should be honest and reasonable and blame the Governor for resisting calls to postpone it (until it was too late).

Anonymous said...

I shall hold James to his stated standard.
She any of US ask him a question he must answer.
Or 
we hold him to his standard.
"struck speechless"

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Ruth Bader Ginsburg slams SCOTUS decision on Wisconsin absentee voting

Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg decried a decision made by the Supreme Court’s majority blocking an extension to the absentee ballot deadline in Wisconsin, where the governor unsuccessfully tried to postpone in-person voting due to the coronavirus pandemic.

The high court on Monday blocked a lower court’s extension of the ballot deadline in a 5-4 decision, just hours after the Wisconsin Supreme Court shut down Gov. Tony Evers’ last-minute executive order postponing voting in Tuesday’s contests.

In her dissent, Ginsburg, who was joined by Justices Stephen Breyer, Elena Kagan and Sonia Sotomayor, wrote that the ruling “will result in massive disenfranchisement.”

“The question here is whether tens of thousands of Wisconsin citizens can vote safely in the midst of a pandemic. Under the District Court’s order, they would be able to do so. Even if they receive their absentee ballot in the days immediately following election day, they could return it,” RBG wrote.

“With the majority’s stay in place, that will not be possible. Either they will have to brave the polls, endangering their own and others’ safety. Or they will lose their right to vote, through no fault of their own. That is a matter of utmost importance — to the constitutional rights of Wisconsin’s citizens, the integrity of the State’s election process, and in this most extraordinary time, the health of the Nation.”

Ginsburg went on to say she wasn’t doubting “the good faith” of her colleagues on the bench, but that the majority was not grasping just how significantly the pandemic had altered everyday life nationwide.

“The Court’s suggestion that the current situation is not ‘substantially different’ from ‘an ordinary election’ boggles the mind,” the feminist icon wrote.

INDEED IT DOES. WOMEN TAKE NOTE. TAKE NOTE TOO THAT THREE OF THE DISSENTERS ARE WOMEN.

“Now, under this Court’s order, tens of thousands of absentee voters, unlikely to receive their ballots in time to cast them, will be left quite literally without a vote.”

In an unusual move, the Supreme Court’s majority opinion WAS NOT LISTEDWITH ANY JUSTICE AS THE AUTHOR and included a DISCLAIMER early in the text that the court was only upholding the longstanding opposition to last-minute orders by federal judges that threw election processes into chaos.

It added that the court was not making an endorsement of any specific electoral practices to adopt in the wake of the coronavirus, nor was it ruling out potential changes being made to those practices in the future.

“The Court’s decision on the narrow question before the Court should not be viewed as expressing an opinion on the broader question of whether to hold the election, or whether other reforms or modifications in election procedures in light of COVID–19 are appropriate. That point cannot be stressed enough,” the majority opinion read.

IN OTHER WORDS, NO JUSTICE WOULD PUT HIS NAME ON THE DECISION AND THEY ALL ADMITTED IT WAS DECIDED ON A DANGEROUS TECHNICALITY.

Commonsense said...

So now upholding the law is an " DANGEROUS TECHNICALITY".

There is literally nothing the Democrats won't subvert to get power.

anonymous said...

Okay cramps.....upholding the Wi BS was not about law....it was to suppress the vote as trump keeps saying more voting is bad for old white men like him!!!!!

Commonsense said...

No, the law is quite clear. Absentee ballots must be postmarked by midnight the day of the election.

To allow voting to continue after the election would allow those people to vote with hindsight. In other words they are voting with foreknowledge of the results of the election.

This creates major 14th amendment considerations as you are treating a class of voters differently than those who voted on time.

It's not "JUST A TECHNICALITY".

anonymous said...

And the gov....within his authority.....wanted to extend that date....IOW's the R's in the Wi house did not want people to vote....Typical of loser White men who are afraid of becoming irrelevant!!!!! Your support of voter suppression is typical of your genre of R's and their hate of the constitution.....Sad, but I expect no less from dumb fucking idiots like you!!!!!

Commonsense said...

Actually the governor didn't have the authority as the Wisconsin Supreme Court ruled.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Actually the VSP (Voter Suppression Party)
just does not want qualified voters to vote.

Commonsense said...

Qualified voters only include citizens and they have no problem voting if they wanted to.