Thursday, April 16, 2020

So now we are talking apples to oranges...

We are now officially including "suspected" deaths due to Corona virus!
(has this been done previously with other outbreaks?)



Well so much for models and empirical data at this point. As you can see by this graph, on April 14th apparently 6100 people died. Well, not exactly. These were retroactive deaths being reported by states who are now being tasked with including "suspected" deaths in their counts. Some states had already been doing this, which is likely why the CDC decided to push this on everyone else. 

From my numbers, approximately 3800 cases were reported retroactively on the 14th and several hundred were added retroactively yesterday. Moving forward all 50 states will be reporting their suspected and confirmed totals together as one number, meaning we may very well see these numbers up into the 2000-2500 range (rather than where they were) at least for the next few days.

Based on those retroactive numbers, at a minimum this will raise the daily death toll somewhere between 15-20 percent on a day to day basis, and it could raise it even more depending on how inclusive people are in their "suspicions". Approximately 80% of those with symptoms come back with negative testing results. But my personal speculation is that we will see many more than 20% of those with symptoms being suspected of having Covid-19.

As I stated previously... this would make a lot more sense if we separated confirmed from suspected as to not mess with the manner in which reporting is being done. That being said, it does explain the uptick in reported deaths over the past two days (when it has earlier appeared that we were on the down slope). 


7 comments:

Anonymous said...

MIT connects dots.
Cities with Mass Transit spreads the virus more effectively.

Anonymous said...


As I stated previously... this would make a lot more sense if we separated confirmed from suspected as to not mess with the manner in which reporting is being done.

shit, they're not even separating died 'from' / died 'with.'

how in the hell they can expect to have any data that's is the least bit accurate emerge from this is beyond me.

anonymous said...

Lil Schitty again showing that no matter what the issue....he will back trump instead of reality.. I guess he is a bigger genius than even the stable genius in the WH!!!!!..


So now we are talking apples to oranges...
We are now officially including "suspected" deaths due to Corona virus!
(has this been done previously with other outer


Sad that trump keeps missing the opportunity to appoint Lil Schitty to his cabinet!!!!!!! The only thing suspect is CH's inability to pull his head out of his own ass!!!! bWAAAAAAAAAAA!!!

anonymous said...

the least bit accurate emerge from this is beyond me.



EVERYTHING IS BEYOND YOU!!! YOU DUMB FUCKING LOSER!!!!!!!

Caliphate4vr said...

Fatty,

Just say. Please pay attention to me, I’m afeered for mah life. I’m old and have underlying medical conditions and in the sweet spot for the Covid.

Because everything you post is sad and pathetic

anonymous said...

Hey dumb fuck UGA loser....listen to me closely.....you are about as funny as a hanging hemorrhoid !!!!!!! Sad and pathetic that you have 2 mortgages, no income and no hope!!!!!!! BWAAAAAAAA!! Great to be retired with income greater than you can only dream of!!!!!!!!

Caliphate4vr said...

Oh I have plenty of income, fatman, but thanks for your concern.

Spent the afternoon loading up my kids and myself with provisions at Costco, BTW, my son will graduate this summer with no debt and has been invited to participate in the MLR’s first ever draft.

https://www.majorleague.rugby/news/major-league-rugby-to-hold-first-ever-collegiate-draft/

My daughter is scheduled to graduate some time in 2021, not bad for someone with no income.

I’m not old and afraid.

You fat tub of gooh