Friday, April 24, 2020

Some words of wisdom?

We Won't Do This for 12 to 18 Months 
By Sean Trende - RCP StaffApril 23, 2020
Economist Herb Stein was famous for a great many things, but most prominent among them was “Stein’s Law.” It is elegant in its simplicity: “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”
 
Stein’s Law is particularly appropriate these days as we discuss plans for reopening the economy. There is a small but growing portion of mostly Republican governors who seem intent on opening up sooner rather than later. There’s also a group that insists on opening up slowly, with Ezekiel Emanuel suggesting “conferences, concerts, sporting events, religious services, dinner in a restaurant, none of that will resume until we find a vaccine, a treatment, or a cure” while concluding that “[w]e need to prepare ourselves for this to last 18 months or so and for the toll that it will take.”
These are interesting debates, but they don’t frame the question properly. The question isn’t what timeline we should allow for things to start to reopen. That assumes a degree of control over events that we probably lack. Instead, the timeline will probably be dictated for us, which demands a slightly different policy discussion. There are a couple of reasons for this:
First is public opinion. Support for stay-at-home orders remains robust nationally in polling, but there is at least anecdotal evidence that patience with such orders is starting to wane. I’ve noticed an increase in traffic when I go to the bank, and longer lines when I get takeout. We’ve seen protests, although they are sporadic at best. And, again anecdotally, people’s nerves seem to be fraying.
How long the public will support these measures is anyone’s guess, but I doubt the public’s patience is infinite.

I think the one undeniable fact is this. The public's willingness to stay at home (and the polling that supports this) will continue to fade over time. More people today than yesterday are coming to the conclusion that they want to get back to some form of normalcy. More people tomorrow than today will come to that same conclusion.

This is a one way issue, and short of some major unforeseen chain of events tied to an increase in the Covid-19 outbreak, more and more and more people will begin to become impatient with the idea of staying home. Right now it may only be affecting people whose livelihoods are at stake, but eventually it starts to affect everyone.

As Trende also points out, there is no guarantee that we will EVER see a vaccine for Covid-19. As the old saying goes, there is no cure for the common cold and no medical expert anywhere has ever come up with a vaccine to stop the spread of a basic coronavirus. Is it possible that we could do something unique with this strain? Sure. But we shouldn't count on it.

So those holding out for a cure or vaccine may have to either change their thinking or hold out forever!

The idea originally was to "flatten the curve" as to not overwhelm our hospital systems. But here in Minnesota (like most of America) our hospitals system is at about 35% capacity and they are cutting hours and even furloughing medical workers.

If not now, then when?

38 comments:

Anonymous said...

The news if reduction of food being created is staggering.
"A wave of shutdowns at some of North America’s largest meat plants is starting to force hog producers to dispose of their animals in the latest cruel blow to food supplies.

Shuttered or reduced processing capacity has prompted some farmers in eastern Canada to euthanize hogs that were ready for slaughter, said Rick Bergmann, chair of the Canadian Pork Council. In Minnesota, farmers may have to cull 200,000 pigs in the next few weeks, according to an industry association. Carcasses are typically buried or rendered."

anonymous said...

How much longer are you going to keep your sham support of trump going Lil Schitty????/ Are you going to inject lysol if you get sick? Will you be hitting the tanning bed to get light into your body???/ Wonder why P+G had to publish warnings to the public not to ingest lysol?????? Yep....only 50 k and counting is a win in your book since the mortality is a lot less than something.....BWAQAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!! Maybe rat can explain to you that killing 50 k americans is better than losing money in the economy. that will recover in time.....assholes!!!!

anonymous said...


The news if reduction of food being created is staggering.

Especially for those standing in food lines that run out of food.....BTW 86% favor the current policy of shut down....

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

CH SAYS:
So those holding out for a cure or vaccine may have to either change their thinking or hold out forever!

JAMES SAYS:
Vaccine or cure? A false dichotomy.

I am among those who are only holding out for a flattening of the curve, an indication that we can keep the spread of the virus under a significant degree of control, before we start relaxing too many restrictions.

Of course a vaccine would be the best solution, for it would in effect be, or approach being, a cure.

But restrictions should begin to be relaxed only as it becomes clear that we have better control over the spread of the virus than we at present have.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Most Republicans Still Support Social Distancing
April 24, 2020 at 6:30 am EDT By Taegan Goddard

Perry Bacon:
“Polls over the past month found that Republicans were less supportive of such measures than Democrats, but they were still in favor overall. For most of that period, though, there wasn’t really a vocal movement arguing against social distancing. That changed toward the end of last week, particularly with the protests, which were fairly small but got a lot of media coverage. In the wake of the protests and Trump’s support of them, I had expected conservative and Republican voters to become more opposed to social distancing since voters often take cues from party leaders and elites.

“But they haven’t so far.”

Anonymous said...

BTW 86% favor the current policy of shut down...." Great News.


Keep it all shut the fuck. down.

But, be ready for what more that causes in hardship.

JAMES'S FUCKING DADDY said...

thebradfordfile™
@thebradfordfile


How could any government official be so dumb they would purposely send coronavirus patients to freaking nursing homes?

Ask Governor Cuomo.

The death toll is staggering.


New York’s health commissioner on Monday defended a directive that requires nursing homes to readmit residents who’ve tested positive for the coronavirus — as Gov. Andrew Cuomo revealed he didn’t know the policy was in place.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/20/cuomo-didnt-know-coronavirus-patients-are-being-sent-back-to-nursing-homes/

Talk about actually being responsible for killing people - not from political_lire. Imagine if NY had closed mass transit and not done this how much lower their deaths would have been.

C.H. Truth said...

I am among those who are only holding out for a flattening of the curve, an indication that we can keep the spread of the virus under a significant degree of control, before we start relaxing too many restrictions.

Well Reverend...

When the majority of hospitals in the country are running far below capacity and they are cutting hours or furloughing employees as they are here in Minnesota (Mayo Clinic system is running at about 35% of normal capacity).

How long do you need to "flatten the curve" for?


If the argument is that it will come back no matter "when" we come back out of this (as the flatten the curve crowd argues) - then shouldn't we be judging that on how our hospital system is actually affected?


It's one thing to argue that we need to continue to have everything in lock down because of Hospitals... if Hospitals were actually under strain.

But in 90% of the country, Hospitals are not under strain.

So what exactly "is" the argument then?

Because it cannot possibly be to protect the hospitals from being overwhelmed anymore. In fact, if your concern was the hospital system then now is probably as good as a time as any.

C.H. Truth said...

Bottom line:

We have to stop pretending that what is happening in New York City is actually what is happening in America in general.

It's not.

New York has it's own set of circumstances and the rest of the country cannot gauge their reaction on what is happening there, or wait for things to settle down in their hospitals.


New York may have to act way way differently than Wyoming or North Dakota.

I think it's silly that people cannot process the difference between these areas and/or these situations (or differentiate anything about this at all).

anonymous said...

Calling Dr Cramps.......Trumps drug cocktail seems, shockingly, ineffective in NY Trials.......I guess Dr Fauci again was correct and trump was a giant asshole and wrong....just like cramps crusade on trumps behalf!!!!

An anti-malaria drug has been ineffective on virus patients in New York.

An experimental protocol using the anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine on New Yorkers seriously ill with the coronavirus showed no effect on recovery rates, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said on Thursday evening.
After a French doctor reported promising results using the drug on a small group of patients, President Trump has promoted hydroxychloroquine, despite the lack of widespread or scientifically verified data that it works.
The United States has seen a run on the drug, which has potentially imperiled sufferers of autoimmune diseases like lupus, whom it is also used to treat.
The New York trial, which tested hundreds of seriously ill patients, began in early April and used the anti-malarial in conjunction with the antibiotic Zithromax.

Anonymous said...



trende is right concerning a vaccine. hell, on any given year the efficacy of the standard influenza vaccine is at best 50%. in 2020 it was less than that at around 45%.

it's time to put an end to this charade. those at risk can remain under a self-imposed house arrest.

the rest of us need to re-open the economy before no one has anything to go back to.

assholes like cuomo need to focus on the massive backlog of unemployment checks. and killing nursing home residents. he seems to excel at at hat.



anonymous said...

Bottom line Lil Schitty......you are just soooooo full of shit it is coming out your pores.....Your opinion again I am sure will be taken up by trump as a signal things are going well....Maybe you can explain why SD has the largest hot zone in the country, with the local sheriff worried resources are running low.....yeah I guess that is a lot different than NY.....BWAAAAAAAA!!!!! Idiot

Anonymous said...


New York may have to act way way differently than Wyoming or North Dakota.


shit, NYC needs to act way way differently than Upstate NY. we have no significant threat up here, and the farther away you get from the upstate population centers like Albany, Syracuse, Rochester, and Buffalo, the threat drops to zero.

cuomo is such a fucking asshole he had NYS DEC close the public boat launches in the adirondacks.

fucking brilliant.

Anonymous said...



Maybe you can explain why SD has the largest hot zone in the country

maybe YOU can dumb fuck, because it's not true.

geezus. a lie makes it halfway around the world before the truth even gets its pants on.

anonymous said...


trende is right concerning a vaccine. hell, on any given year the efficacy of the standard influenza vaccine is at best 50%

Which proves what asshole.....they are a waste to get???? BWAAAAAAA!!!!! Even though they may not work completely....those who do get the flu after the vaccine have a much less severe illness which can prevent many hospital visits and mortality.....God you are the dumbest fuck here......!!!!!

Caliphate4vr said...

Colleges with the most first-round picks

LSU — 5 (Burrow, K'Lavon Chiasson, Justin Jefferson, Patrick Queen and Clyde Edwards-Helaire)
Alabama — 4 (Tua Tagovailoa, Jedrick Wills Jr., Henry Ruggs III and Jerry Jeudy)
Ohio State — 3 (Chase Young, Jeff Okudah and Damon Arnette)
TCU/Georgia/Auburn/Oklahoma — 2
First-round picks by conference

SEC — 15
Big Ten — 5
Big 12 — 5
Pac-12 — 3
ACC — 3
Mountain West — 1

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Well, Ch, even Trump has backtracked and (after praising the governor of Georgia, said that he went too far in relaxing restrictions, so I guess we should all pay attention to the majority of Americans, even Republicans, who are not in favor of relaxing restrictions ANYwhere if doing that cannot be supported by medical-scientific evidence that it will not increase infections.

Meanwhile -- see the next thread down -- we have a madman in the White House who is suggesting (to the great discomfort of Dr. Birx and others) that we might just try ingesting disinfectant or bombarding our innards with light to get a miracle cure, and also that sunlight itself will maybe just make it all go away like magic this summer.

anonymous said...

Proving again the rat dumb fuck can't find his own ass in the dark.... Not true,.,,,,,,BWAAAAAAAAAA!!!!! Thanx for playing again, asshole


That all appeared to be in jeopardy this week, when the Smithfield plant became the nation’s largest single-source coronavirus hot spot. Its employees now make up about 44 percent of the diagnoses in South Dakota, and a team of researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has traveled there to assess how the outbreak spiraled out of control. Smithfield is the latest meat processing facility to close in the face of the coronavirus.
The startling toll on the workers has drawn criticism from union leaders who say the facility’s owners waited too long to introduce safety measures, and instead encouraged employees to meet the demand for their products that has surged amid the pandemic.

https://www.boston.com/news/national-news-2/2020/04/14/south-dakota-coronavirus

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

The number of novel coronavirus-related deaths in the United States has surpassed 50,000, according to the latest numbers from Johns Hopkins University.

C.H. Truth said...

.Maybe you can explain why SD has the largest hot zone in the country, with the local sheriff worried resources are running low.

Since that so called MAJOR breakout from the Sioux Falls plant...a grand whopping total of two people have died in South Dakota, still none under the age of 50, and as far as is being reported nobody associated from the plant outbreak has passed.

South Dakota (according to their official Covid-19 website) currently has a grand whopping total of 58 people hospitalized

vs 15,000 in New York.



This is important. Because South Dakota actually does not have a major problem, the state was able to test pretty much everyone at the plant and then test everyone associated with those who tested positive.

They then were able to isolate those people.

It's exactly the sort of testing that and isolation that people demand is needed before we reopen?

So if they have this ability today... then why is anyone upset that they are not locked down?

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

The number of novel coronavirus-related deaths in the United States has surpassed 50,000, according to the latest numbers from Johns Hopkins University.

Anonymous said...



thanks for the old news alky.

when you get a minute can we get yesterday's weather forecast and winning lottery numbers?

thanks in advance, alky.

now have the nurse put you back to bed.

Anonymous said...

Which proves what asshole.....they are a waste to get???? BWAAAAAAA!!!!! Even though they may not work completely....those who do get the flu after the vaccine have a much less severe illness which can prevent many hospital visits and mortality.

you fucking stooge.

what it proves is that we should not keep the economy shut down while waiting for a vaccine that might not even be that effective.

damn, fat boy.

you're so fucking stupid that if breathing required thought you'd be dead.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Ch, why don't you defend your president's genius in suggesting people might very well get cured of Covid-19 by ingesting disinfectant or getting inwardly zapped with light?

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

You could do that on the next thread down.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

The governor of SD is opening up businesses with an executive order that requires businesses not to have more than ten people in a building or locality at a time and requires people to maintain a distance of six feet or mroe from one another and practice hygiene.

Sounds like a pretty modified semi-lockdown to me.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/watch-live-south-dakota-governor-gives-coronavirus-update-2

C.H. Truth said...

Ch, why don't you defend your president's genius in suggesting people might very well get cured of Covid-19 by ingesting disinfectant or getting inwardly zapped with light?


Well Reverend...

Thank you for conceding that you have no answers to what we are actually discussing on this thread!

Not that you ever do... you just change the subject every time you lose an argument. Which is multiple times on every thread.



Q: How do we know the Reverend lost an argument?
A: He changed the subject, usually with a cut&paste.

Anonymous said...



"He who joyfully marches to music in rank and file has already earned my contempt. He has been given a large brain by mistake, since for him the spinal cord would fully suffice."

—Albert Einstein (1879-1955)

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

HTRUTH: Thank you for conceding that you have no answers to what we are actually discussing on this thread!

JAMES: I gave you an answer on this thread's subject in post 11:17AM.

But I can well understand your reluctance to appear in the next thread down. If I were you, I'd be embarrassed too!

And by the way, your "Trump Quote" thread is LAME, LAME, LAME.

Thank you for conceding that there are no good arguments in defense of what Trump said.

If there were, his embarrassed medical experts would be offering them.
You can be sure he's unsuccedssfully pressuring them to do that!

Anonymous said...

The coming World Wide Famine.

Hope you all are/get ready.

You shut down meat production and grain production in the USA.

It will cause starvation.

Take your victory lapse now.

JAMES'S FUCKING DADDY said...

C.H. Truth said...
Ch, why don't you defend your president's genius in suggesting people might very well get cured of Covid-19 by ingesting disinfectant or getting inwardly zapped with light?


Well Reverend...

Thank you for conceding that you have no answers to what we are actually discussing on this thread!

Not that you ever do... you just change the subject every time you lose an argument. Which is multiple times on every thread.



Q: How do we know the Reverend lost an argument?
A: He changed the subject, usually with a cut&paste.

Actually he has never won an argument unless you take his "claimed" wins.

but boy does spamming make him feel smart.

ROFLMFAO !!!

C.H. Truth said...

If there were, his embarrassed medical experts would be offering them.


really?

is that how it works now?


It doesn't actually matter what Trump actually said..

All that matters is what people "say" he said?


Because that seems to be your argument, Reverend.


I seem to recall quite a few similar times when you argued that statements on FB about being a child molester coupled with calling teenage girls "hot" was taken "out of context" by others, when they suggested you are a sex predator and garnered you the nickname pederast.

and they were just literally repeating what you wrote and you stated it was out of context.

(and to be clear, I do not call you pederast or necessarily believe you are a child molester - but it is certainly something that could be gleamed from your own statements).


In this case, Trump didn't actually tell anyone to drink Lysol and went so far as to clarify that there wouldn't be any literal injection or ingestion of any cleaners...


But yet... you seem to believe that he actually "said" doesn't matter, because liberals are demanding he meant something else?


Maybe you should remember how being called a child molester made you feel before you start twisting words, ignoring context, as well as most importantly ignoring clarifying statements about a murky original statement.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Well, Ch, you can leave off with your typically tortured, winding, nonsensical arguments, because Trump has now made it clear that he was only being "sarcastic" when he said what he said.

So he didn't really mean what he said. He was only being sarcastic.

But maybe you would like to argue with him that he was NOT being sarcastic?

Actually, of course, he was really being stupid,
and now that THAT has become clear to any reasonable person,
he tries to deflect criticism by claiming he didn't really mean what he said. He was only being sarcastic.

VERY presidential.
(Knee slapping funny, actually.)

anonymous said...


It doesn't actually matter what Trump actually said..


God you are a stupid fuck. Lil Schitty......only moronic idiots would say that.....you qualify!!!!!! BWAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!

anonymous said...

Hey Lil Schitty.....sarcastic.....BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!! His preposterous claims and the lack of a reporters question are clearly evident on the video of the event....the tape also shows the good doctor's body language as the stream of bullshit flowed out of his mouth.....Me thinks this event will be well covered in campaign ads and you will suck his dick no matter what!!!! I hate to tell you, you lost this round and the week so far.....86% approval of the current shut downs and policy is evidence your side is losing....Please note that the trump base of older voters is leaving.....dooming you and the GOP like I have been saying for a long time!!!!!

anonymous said...

Of course the WH now blames the media for trumps stupidity......surprised Lil Schitty didn't try the same BS but blamed it on James not interpreting trumps comments correctly.....BWAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!! Once again, it is never trumps fault for being a dumb fuck....it is the people who report his exact words are the problem!!!!!!

White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany blamed the media Friday for the negative attention President Trump’s comments about injecting disinfectant has received.

“President Trump has repeatedly said that Americans should consult with medical doctors regarding coronavirus treatment, a point that he emphasized again during yesterday’s briefing,” McEnany said in a statement. “Leave it to the media to irresponsibly take President Trump out of context and run with negative headlines.”

The media wasn’t the only industry to respond to Trump’s unsafe suggestion. Lysol — the manufacturer of cleaning products — put out a statement early Friday morning stating that “under no circumstance should our disinfectant products be administered into the human body (through injection, ingestion or any other route).”

White House Press Secretary Blames Media for ‘Negative Headlines’ About Trump Suggesting Disinfectant Injections
White House Press Secretary Blames Media for ‘Negative Headlines’ About Trump Suggesting Disinfectant Injections
Also Read: Trump Wonders If Injecting Disinfectant - or Light - Into Human Bodies Could Kill Coronavirus (Video)

During his coronavirus press briefing Thursday, Trump said, “Supposing we hit the body with a tremendous — whether it’s ultraviolet or just very powerful — light, and I think you said that hasn’t been checked but you’re going to test it. And then I said, ‘Supposing you brought the light inside the body,’ which you can do either through the skin or in some other way, and I think you said you’re going to test that, too. Sounds interesting. And then I see the disinfectant where it knocks it out in a minute, one minute, and is there a way we can do something like that? Like injection inside or almost a cleaning because, you see, it gets in the lungs and it does a tremendous number in the lungs, so it’d be interesting to check that.”

His injection comments not only became fodder for Friday’s morning shows, but also Twitter, where numerous trending topics involving “Clorox,” “Lysol” and “bleach” trended overnight Thursday into Friday morning.

The matter was all but settled in realtime Thursday, though. At the briefing, Trump turned to Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus task force coordinator, and asked that she speak to doctors to “see if there’s any way that you can apply light and heat to cure” the virus.