Yesterday Worldometer reported that there were 1321 US deaths on 4/3/2020, however today the site shows that number as 1045. This is not the first time I have seen marginal changes in the numbers, but this one was significant. The 4/4/2020 number came in at 1331 which now charts out as if we saw a relatively large bump in yesterday's numbers.
Meanwhile the CDC reported a slight decrease in deaths yesterday (1023 from 1150 on Friday). What I have been doing is taking both the CDC numbers (the most conservative estimates) and averaging them out with the Worldometer numbers. That provides a little consistency with the numbers. Only one day did that average number not increase (Thursday 4/2), and that was only 27 casualties lower than 4/1.
We are still very early in the data collection and we are still somewhere between ten and fifteen days away from what modeling experts are considering the peak of the curve (which is still being seen as a variation of the bell curve). So far the actual reported numbers have consistently fallen slightly under what the statistical model I am following (93K deaths) is projecting from day to day. Of course, that doesn't mean necessarily mean that we are going to fall short of that projected number. We really will not know one way or the other until we reach a peak and can show that the numbers are starting to go back down.
I wonder out loud, however, if such a model works in a country as large and separated as the United States. Right now the rise in numbers is being dominated by New York and New Jersey. It's possible that as those areas start to decline that we could be seeing rising numbers in other areas of the country which would keep those numbers more consistent, rather than the normal ascent, peak, and decline. Instead of one peak, we could be looking at many individual peaks across the nation that may go on for weeks rather than days.
However, using that as a basis, it would be look as though the most dense and diverse city in the nation (New York) is the first to be going through this. We do not have any other cities nearly as large, nearly as densely populated, or with anywhere near the international travel. Psychologically, it may have been a good thing to get New York through this early, assuming it can be done with the least amount of fatalities possible. Sometimes knowing the worst case scenario can better prepare us for the rest of the response.
45 comments:
Florida recorded it's first Coronavirus case around the same time New York did and it's curve has been significantly more shallow than New Yorks.
from the New York Times
Official Counts Understate Coronavirus Death Toll
April 5, 2020 at 2:10 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 76 Comments
New York Times:
“Across the United States, even as coronavirus deaths are being recorded in terrifying numbers — many hundreds each day — the true death toll is likely much higher.
“More than 9,100 people with the coronavirus have been reported to have died in this country as of this weekend, but hospital officials, doctors, public health experts and medical examiners say that official counts have failed to capture the true number of Americans dying in this pandemic, as a result of inconsistent protocols, limited resources and a PATCHWORK of decision-making from one state or county to the next.”
but hospital officials, doctors, public health experts and medical examiners say that official counts have failed to capture the true number of Americans dying in this pandemic
an interesting and very common theme of every one of these stories is that none of these folks cited ever have names, faces, and identities.
why, it's almost like someone at the NY Times would take the time to fabricate these stories.
you would think that if this situation is as dire and serious as these "hospital officials, doctors, public health experts and medical examiners" say it is, at least one of them would like to come forward, be identified, and take credit for providing the public with such startling revelations.
It is just a easily true that people who die of other causes could be counted as CORVID-19 victims.
There's no way to tell.
when faced with a myriad of choices to address any given problem, you can always count on a liberal to make the very fucking worst choice humanly possible:
Before Covid-19 struck, San Francisco officials took no meaningful action to address the squalid conditions under which so many homeless people live. They threw money at the problem, but the problem grew. Homeless activists and some city leaders have argued that living on the street is a right, but today it presents a serious public-health dilemma: how will officials get homeless people to comply with social-distancing requirements, and what should they do with those who’ve contracted the virus?
The city is working to set up the Moscone Center as a shelter, a sensible idea. An even better one would be to revive the recently closed California Pacific Medical Center hospital campus and erect MASH-style medical units. These would allow for closely monitored and efficient care. In fact, the city could use this as an opportunity to provide intensive integrated treatment, including substance-abuse services.
Instead, Mayor London Breed and the Human Services Agency came up with the plan to route over 3,000 people currently living in shelters and navigation centers into hotels. The city is planning to put thousands of physically and psychologically sick people into private hotel rooms, in some of the most luxurious hotels in San Francisco—the InterContinental, Mark Hopkins, and The Palace. Occupants would receive three meals per day, hygiene products, and access to nurses.
https://www.city-journal.org/san-francisco-plan-to-shelter-homeless-in-luxury-hotels
spectacular.
i will be interested to see who gets to pick up the tab for gutting these once-fine hotels down to the fucking studs after this grand experiment epically fails.
CBS News: Fauci on Face the Nation says deaths will keep rising even as new cases stabilize.
______________
If Fauci does not list the actual names of hundreds of doctors, nurses, and hospital and medical experts, Rat will not believe him.
Yeah, that's expected because death is a lagging indicator.
There's no doctors, nurses, or ana other medical experts. It's statistical modeling.
It is just a easily true that people who die of other causes could be counted as CORVID-19 victims.
There's no way to tell.
this is the part that has troubled me from the start. no effort is being made to discern those who die FROM the virus to those who die WITH the virus.
there was one death reported in my home county which is so rural everyone knows everyone, therefore we did find out that the person had heart disease, emphysema, diabetes, HBP and was at least 100 pounds overweight.
a strong fart in a confined space like a crowded elevator kills a person like that. but covid is being credited with the death.
at least seperate for age for chrissakes.
If Fauci does not list the actual names of hundreds of doctors, nurses, and hospital and medical experts, Rat will not believe him.
imbecile -
as cs stated, fauci is not relying on first-hand testimony. he's relying on statistical modeling.
you think fauci has time to interview thousands of HC professionals across the country?
you know pederast, many people are hacks, others are intellectually dishonest, and others are just plain old fucing stupid...
...but you're the total package.
LOL I suppose news media have to list all those names just because you think they are lying if they don't.
But covid is not infecting or killing all those people.
Rat says so.
Isn't that wonderful?
I mean, his judgment is totally objective, isn't it?
Transcript of Dr. Fauci on FACE THE NATION
(He does not list names.)
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-dr-anthony-fauci-discusses-coronavirus-on-face-the-nation-april-5-2020/
RRB you must have really stepped on James and kick a deep mud hole in him to trigger him, again.
LOL No, I just love upsetting Rat.
as cs stated, fauci is not relying on first-hand testimony. he's relying on statistical modeling.
you think fauci has time to interview thousands of HC professionals across the country?
you know pederast, many people are hacks, others are intellectually dishonest, and others are just plain old fucing stupid...
...but you're the total package.
In the words of Forest Gump, “He’s not a bright man.”
FROM THE END OF THE SUNDAY FUNNIES thread.
BEARS REPEATING HERE
Commonsense QUOTES
“By that time, hospitals in several states were treating thousands of infected patients without adequate equipment and were pleading for shipments from the Strategic National Stockpile.”
AND THEN COMMONSENSE SAYS
New York got everything they asked for, so did California, Washington, Florida, New Jersy, etc. erc.
Bet they didn't say which states didn't have adequate equipment?
April 5, 2020 at 9:28 AM
________________
anonymous said...
"New York got everything they asked for, so did California"
Really?.....like masks, gowns and test kits that are millions short??????
April 5, 2020 at 11:29 AM
____________
Commonsense said...
Really? link?
You know a real fact base report and not an opinion or some anecdotal nonsense.
April 5, 2020 at 3:03 PM
Blogger James said...
Here you go, Commensa. This is fact based. No "anecdotal nonsense" here.
_____________
Trump administration tells states to step up as governors plead for aid
The surgeon general says states need to be “Rosie The Riveter” as the country prepares for a crisis resembling World War II.
04/05/2020 02:48 PM EDT
The federal government’s top public health spokesman invoked World War II as the U.S. heads into a new, deadlier phase of the coronavirus pandemic, warning in interviews Sunday that this is a “Pearl Harbor moment.”
Surgeon General Jerome Adams also told states that are still pleading for medical equipment and aid that they have to “be Rosie The Riveter” — a cultural icon whose "We Can Do It!" slogan became a symbol of the American war effort — and “do your part.”
“The next week is going to be our Pearl Harbor moment. It’s going to be our 9/11 moment,” Adams told NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “It’s going to be the hardest moment for many Americans in their entire lives, and we really need to understand that if we want to flatten that curve and get through to the other side, everyone needs to do their part.” He made strikingly similar remarks on “Fox News Sunday.”
Republican and Democratic governors alike pushed back, saying the Trump administration has failed to mount the kind of national coordinated response needed to address the crisis and that shortages of tests, ventilators and protective equipment for physicians persist.
PERSIST? BUT COMMENSA SAYS THEY GOT ALL THEY ASKED FOR.
“This is ludicrous,” said Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, a Democrat. “The surgeon general referred to Pearl Harbor. Can you imagine if Franklin Delano Roosevelt said, ‘We’ll be right behind you, Connecticut. Good luck building those battleships?’”
Gov. John Bel Edwards of Louisiana, one of the areas of the South hit hardest by the virus, said the state’s medical resources will be overwhelmed in less than a week without an influx of federal aid.
“We now think it’s probably around the 9th of April before we exceed our ventilator capacity, based on the current number on hand, and that we’re a couple of days behind that on ICU bed capacity being exceeded,” he said on CNN’s “State of the Union.”
Governors’ long-simmering frustration has erupted in recent days as the death toll from the virus has increased and the Trump administration has moved to imply that it’s not the federal government’s responsibility to ensure states have the resources they need and they are instead a “backstop” to states leaders’ own efforts.
Earlier this week, President Donald Trump again declined to implement a national stay-at-home order, and scolded governors for their appeals for help, part of a bigger push to shift responsibility away from the federal government. Jared Kushner and other White House officials also said states should not depend on the medicines and medical equipment in the Strategic National Stockpile.
“It’s supposed to be our stockpile. It’s not supposed to be states’ stockpiles that they then use,” he said.
The government’s website for the stockpile, which previously said it was “for use in a public health emergency severe enough to cause local supplies to run out,” WAS ALTERED TO ALIGN WITH KUSHNER'S REMARKS. It now says the stockpile’s role “is to supplement state and local supplies during public health emergencies. Many states have products stockpiled, as well.”
KUSHNER AND THOSE WHO LIE LIKE THAT SHOULD BE SHOT.
Leaving states on their own, however, has had serious consequences. Many governors say they’ve been forced to bid against one another, the federal government and other countries for supplies on the open market and pay exorbitant rates for basic protective gear.
“It literally is a global jungle that we’re competing in now,” Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, a Republican, said on “Meet the Press.” “I’d like to see a better way, but that’s the reality in which we are.”
Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker blasted Trump in an interview on CNN’s “State of the Union,” telling host Jake Tapper that Trump “does not understand the word ‘federal.’”
“If he were right, why would we ever need a Federal Emergency Management Agency? It’s because individual states can’t possibly do what the federal government can do,” the Democratic governor said. “We don’t have a Defense Production Act. There’s no way that we could stockpile in anticipation of a pandemic that no one anticipated. And yet the federal government is responsible for doing precisely that.”
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer similarly expressed frustration that the U.S. has no national strategy. The current “patchwork based on whomever the governor is,” Whitmer said, is “creating a more porous situation where Covid-19 will go longer and more people will get sick and sadly more lives may get lost.
“That’s precisely why think we all have to do our jobs. We are not one another’s enemies,” Whitmer, a Democrat, told host Chris Wallace on “Fox News Sunday.” “The enemy is Covid-19, and it has to be all hands on deck from the federal level to the state level to the local level. And that's precisely what we’re trying to do because Covid-19, as I said, doesn’t discriminate on party line or state line, and that’s why we have to have a national strategy, and we all have to be working on the same team.”
The real reality Reverend...
Is that doctors are being urged to make their "best judgement" on whether or not someone died with covid-19 when someone has not been tested. That means that there are deaths being "confirmed" to be associated with the virus that were not verified through testing.
Certainly that standard will differ from state to state, county to county, hospital to hospital, or even doctor to doctor. The New York Times is making a play that this is somehow undermining the amount of deaths rather than asking the real question: Why we are reporting confirmed Covid-19 deaths that were not confirmed by testing?
Considering over 80% of those who have symptoms test negatively, it's just as likely (if not more likely) that we could be overstating deaths (not understating them). Moreover, as has been pointed out by other health professionals, many of these people are any infection (covid-19, flu, or even a bad cold) away from dying. How much does it matter which category we put these people in? What purpose does it serve to test someone who was likely to die the first time they caught anything?
You got in too late, Ch. We were talking about whether "the governors were getting everyhthing they asked for," LOL.
re 3:20 (mine)
Not a lot of mere "anecdotal evidence" there.
And a lot of actual NAMES got mentioned too!
YOU'RE ALL WELCOME!
Well Reverend...
This is a Republic, not a single Federal Government. At the end of the day the Constitution suggests that the Governors are ultimately responsible for getting what they want.
But even if state medical issues were suddenly "Federalized" then it wouldn't be up to the Governors to determine what they need and simply go asking for it willy-nilly. If this was completely Federalized then the Federal Government would determine who needs what and distribute accordingly and the Governors would have no control.
These idiot Governors want the best of both worlds. They want to kick and scream about what they don't have and then demand that it's some how the President's fault that they don't have it.
Why do they do this? Because people are stupid and basically sheep. They know the truly misinformed will fall for it.
But let's cut to the chase, here... shall we?
The reality is that 20-20 hindsight we should have a Federal medical reserve of tens of thousands of ventilators, masks, supplies, etc... then that would have up to CONGRESS to haven write a bill that determines those need and to have granted money to pay for it.
The President has no actual ability (therefor no responsibility) to have had some great reserve in place because everyone saw this coming.
I can assure that there will be a time to discuss revamping our Federal reserve for these sorts of situations. I also guarantee you that the President will not be paying for it out of pocket or making the decisions himself. It will have to be debated and passed through Congress (with the help of Federal agencies and experts in charge of this).
If you want to lay blame for a lack of Federal medical reserves, then place that blame on the body of our Government responsible for writing bills and paying for such a thing.
The Trump administration failed again and again to take RECOMMENDED steps and even actually cancelled programs which were already in place and which would have enabled us to deal with this epidemic far, far better as a UNITED nation of states.
Individual states did not fight WWII. Individual states do not fight wars. We do that on the federal level.
We are now in a war that called for a united response for which we were and still are woefully ill prepared.
“The president said, when he announced that those ships would be put into action against the COVID-19 epidemic, he said one of those ships would be operational in New York harbor by next week. That’s nonsense, it will not be there next week,” Maddow said.
What a skank, like "Mike" Obama and her wife Effeminate "boi berry".
"woefully ill prepared." Jane
Lordie, you really don't mind being completely wrong.
At the end of the day the Constitution suggests that the Governors are ultimately responsible for getting what they want.
And I suggest that you will say anything to buoy trumps dismal failures!!!!! Maybe just eliminate the WH and we would all be better off????? Sad how the omnipotent trump does nothing to help but will be the first to criticize like masks being stolen by hospital workers.....and still not getting the millions of promised tests to the field......
James you just listed three governors who are covering their incompetence by blaming Trump.
Pritzker, Edwards, and Whitman never prepared for the coming outbreak nor did they ask for assistence until the Outbreak was well under way. In fact Whitman may have killed people by banning life saving drug therapies.
Pritzker in particular never ordered supplies or asked for assistence until it's to late. Then he expected Trump to wave a magic wand and poof supplies are there. He doesn't understand the word "federal". In a federal system it is the state government's primary function to protect the health and safety of it's citizens with the federal government backing them up, not the federal government being uncle sugar for the states.
Edwards got caught with his pants down and now he's playing catchup. He's just now asking got help.
Inslee is actually sending ventilators to other states because he doesn't.
No James you just show the whining of incompetent Democrat politicians.
Try harder.
Individual states did not fight WWII. Individual states do not fight wars.
Yes, but they are primarily responsible for the health, safety, and welfare of it's citizens.
Oh, and during WWII, it was the state's primary responsibility to administer home front programs such as rationing, blackouts, the home guard, etc.
So yeah, in a federalist system the states did fight WWII.
So much for trumps poll bump as people are realizing what a steaming pile of horseshit trump is...!!!!!
perception of Trump’s performance has changed dramatically. “Trump’s approval for his management of the coronavirus is now under-water, 47-52%. Approval is down from 55% in the poll released on March 20, and closer to where it was in the March 13 poll, when it was 43%.”
Trump’s approval may well decline even further as he weirdly seeks to avoid taking decisive action.
How quickly they fell.....!!!!
Which poll Denny, or did you just make it up?
home front programs such as rationing,
You dumb fucking idiot....who do you think printed the ration books??????? Who also took care of the countries needs???? The states had their roll, but Uncle Sam was doing the lifting......BTW....never heard of The Home Guard being an important effort in WW 2....juat another of your BS lines!!!!
Which poll Denny, or did you just make it up?
Fatty and the pederast, “hear” a lot of shit in the radio...
The home guard among other things enforced the blackout rules and manned observation post to lookout or submarines and other enemy navel vessels.
They also conducted air raid drills.
The states where responsible for distributing ration books and enforcing anti-blackmarket rules.
So Denny read a little WWII history and see that it's not BS.
The Worst President Ever
April 5, 2020 at 5:24 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 115 Comments
Max Boot:
“Until now, I have generally been reluctant to label Donald Trump the worst president in U.S. history. As a historian, I know how important it is to allow the passage of time to gain a sense of perspective. Some presidents who seemed awful to contemporaries (Harry S. Truman) or simply lackluster (Dwight D. Eisenhower, George H.W. Bush) look much better in retrospect. Others, such as Thomas Jefferson and Woodrow Wilson, don’t look as good as they once did.
“So I have written, as I did on March 12, that Trump is the worst president in modern times — not of all time. That left open the possibility that James Buchanan, Andrew Johnson, Franklin Pierce, Warren Harding or some other nonentity would be judged more harshly.
But in the past month, we have seen enough to take away the qualifier ‘in modern times.’ With his catastrophic mishandling of the coronavirus, Trump has established himself as the worst president in U.S. history.”
________________
It will be interesting to see whether future historians will agree. More and more and more it seems they will.
JAMES SAID:
Individual states did not fight WWII. Individual states do not fight wars.
COMMENSA SAYS:
Yes, but they are primarily responsible for the health, safety, and welfare of it's citizens.
______________
JAMES SAYS:
Not when confronted with major national health, safety, and welfare problems like wars or other wide ranging economic or natural disasters.
This virus is a wide ranging national health, safety, and welfare problem for our entire nation.
Hey Cramps......who built the towers???? Who made defined the ration rules.....?????? Your whole list is a fabrication in your mind to prove you know what you posted ....Unless you produce a link that proves.....I call you are full of shit!!!!!! BTW.....if you want to define the home front as all US citizens working to defeat the enemy......you would be more correct than the bullshit you just made up!!!!!
Cramps you really should learn to look shit up before looking like an asshole!!!! No mention of your ersatz home guard.....but lots of volunteers administrating a federal program.....BWAAAAAAAA!!!!
Ration books, stamps, and tokens[edit]
A cartoon of two women with the above panel having a woman hoarding and the below panel having the two share resources via rationing
An anti-hoarding, pro-rationing poster from the United States in World War II.
The work of issuing ration books and exchanging used stamps for certificates was handled by some 5,500 local ration boards of mostly volunteer workers selected by local officials. Many levels of rationing went into effect. Some items, such as sugar, were distributed evenly based on the number of people in a household. Other items, like gasoline or fuel oil, were rationed only to those who could justify a need. Restaurant owners and other merchants were accorded more availability, but had to collect ration stamps to restock their supplies. In exchange for used ration stamps, ration boards delivered certificates to restaurants and merchants to authorize procurement of more products.
Each ration stamp had a generic drawing of an airplane, gun, tank, aircraft carrier, ear of wheat, fruit, etc. and a serial number. Some stamps also had alphabetic lettering. The kind and amount of rationed commodities were not specified on most of the stamps and were not defined until later when local newspapers published, for example, that beginning on a specified date, one airplane stamp was required (in addition to cash) to buy one pair of shoes and one stamp number 30 from ration book four was required to buy 5 pounds (2.3 kg) of sugar. The commodity amounts changed from time to time depending on availability. Red stamps were used to ration meat and butter, and blue stamps were used to ration processed foods.
To enable making change for ration stamps, the government issued "red point" tokens to be given in change for red stamps, and "blue point" tokens in change for blue stamps. The red and blue tokens were about the size of dimes (16 millimetres (0.63 in)) and were made of thin compressed wood fiber material, because metals were in short supply.[4]
There was a black market in stamps. To prevent this, the OPA ordered vendors not to accept stamps that they themselves did not tear out of books. Buyers, however, circumvented this by saying (sometimes accurately, as the books were not well-made) that the stamps had "fallen out." In actuality, they may have acquired stamps from other family members or friends, or the black market.[5]
Most rationing restrictions ended in August of 1945 except for sugar rationing, which lasted until 1947 in some parts of the country
Flashback Quote of the Year
April 5, 2020 at 3:49 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 146 Comments
“We will not see diseases like the coronavirus come here… and isn’t it refreshing when contrasting it with the awful presidency of President Obama.”
— Trump campaign press secretary Kayleigh McEnamy, on Fox News on February 25, 2020.
Well, that's what TRUMP was saying.
____________
The Obama presidency is looking better and better and better and better and... etc., etc., etc.,......
Let's see, which state built an aircraft carrier? Which state organized and implemented the invasion at Normandy? Which state designed and dropped the atomic bomb? Which state built our first jet fighters?
Was it Texas that Japan surrendered to?
Individual states did not fight WWII. Individual states do not fight wars.
Because the Constitution declares that the Federal Government will have an Army specifically for such purposes.
There is no such declaration that they will house medical supplies...
and even if we did, it would be UP TO CONGRESS to fund that medical supply reserve... just as it is today to fund the medical supply reserve we have.
Reverend...
are you so daft as to not understand that no President (be it Trump, Obama, or the future President Trump Jr) has the ability to go out and purchase anything (much less medical supplies).
Trump tried to simply move funds under an executive order and was met with dozens of lawsuits saying such a move was unconstitutional without Congressional approval.
Which is it Reverend?
If you want to suddenly provide the President with the authority to spend money that Congress didn't allocate... then I guess you advocate that he can finish his wall?
Or would you agree with the underlying constitutional principle that the President has no such authority to buy things, stock things, and spend money that is not allocated by Congress?
An anti-hoarding, pro-rationing poster from the United States in World War II.
The work of issuing ration books and exchanging used stamps for certificates was handled by some 5,500 local ration boards of mostly volunteer workers selected by local officials
Thank you for proving my point Denny.
Jane ✔ another box, complete lack of Understanding of the US Constitution.
How will the WHO and UN punish China for thier reckless behavior that caused the spread of this China Virus and deaths?
Thank you for proving my point Denny.
BWAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!! You dumb fuck!!!!!! You need to look up the term you fucking asshole!!!!!!
The home guard is a state militia that replaces the National Guard when off to war. During WW2, it protected armories, water reservoirs, and other areas deemed sensitive to possible sabatoge.
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