JUST IN: @ABC looked at 21 states that eased restrictions May 4 or earlier & found no major increase in hospitalizations, deaths or % of people testing positive in any of them. [SC, MT, GA, MS, SD, AR, CO, ID, IA, ND, OK, TN, TX, UT, WY, KS, FL, IN, MO, NE, OH] via @AMitrops
The key statistic here is "% of people testing positive". What many people are doing is looking at the states who are doing more testing (which results in more cases) and demanding that there is something happening there (that likely isn't). Every time one of these early opening states has a single day where reported cases increase, you hear the same suspects demanding the beginning of the end. It makes you wonder how many times they can go around in this circle before everyone (even the gullible) no longer listen.
This is why it is more accurate to look at hospitalizations and deaths, even you have to wait a couple weeks for these statistics to catch up. As counterintuitive as is might seem, there is no reason to believe that an increase in cases will necessarily result in more hospitalizations or deaths. It entirely depends on who is being tested and what their relative health and age is. In fact, it could be argued that in every case where someone has demanded that one of these states have become a "hot bed" there has been no lagging hospitalizations or deaths to correspond to those "outbreaks".
So far the only places "really" experiencing huge outbreaks of hospitalizations and deaths are the upper east coast and a couple of the great lake states. In pretty much every case, those states are locked down tighter than a drum, and you cannot blame a lack of response on those results. If anything, you could blame the response that they did provide for their results. Well, at least we would if we could be honest about this thing.
Everyone seems to be focusing on something other than the statistics and empirical data here. There comes a time in every situation where you have to start to rely on what you know, rather than what you think you know. That time has likely come and gone here with this crisis. There is more than enough information to make solid conclusions that no longer should be relying on guessing, subjective modeling, or arbitrary concepts.
When someone like Dr Fauci suggests that we not get too "cavalier" with the data, I might suggest that we not get too "cavalier" with our assumptions. When data and assumptions no longer match up, it rarely turns out that the data is the one flawed. Data cannot really be either wrong or right. It just is.
A hypothesis never becomes a proven theory or a scientific law unless the data backs it up. Doesn't matter how many degrees the owner of the hypothesis has, how many times this person has been right in the past, or how sound the hypothesis may seem. It still needs proof.
5 comments:
meanwhile in the peoples republic of NY -
As upstate businesses began opening anyway, Cuomo OK's phase two
ALBANY - Whether in defiance or confusion, some upstate business owners ignored a directive from Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo and began to open in regions that had been expecting to move into the second phase of reopening on Friday.
State officials late Thursday told leaders appointed to the “control rooms” for the five regions poised to allow hair salons, retail stores, real estate businesses and other services to reopen that the regions’ metrics must first be reviewed by international experts before moving forward.
But Friday morning in Elmira — a city in Chemung County of the Southern Tier region — a barbershop had a line out the door with nearly 20 people waiting for a haircut.
Elmira Mayor Daniel J. Mandell confirmed at least one barbershop in the city had opened, and said Chemung County overall has moved the second phase. County Executive Christopher Moss had said Thursday their community would move forward, Mandell said, and other communities in the Southern Tier also planned to follow suit.
"We only have two active cases in Chemung County. We've met all the metrics," he said. "There is no reason why we should not be in phase two. None whatsoever."
The Southern Tier, Mohawk Valley, North Country, Finger Lakes and central New York all expected to move to phase two of the state’s gradual reopening of local economies Friday, as it marked the two-week waiting period Cuomo had said would be necessary to assess whether the reopening prompted spikes in coronavirus cases and hospitalizations.
During Cuomo's daily coronavirus briefing on Friday afternoon, the governor announced those five regions could move to phase two.
https://www.timesunion.com/news/article/Upstate-businesses-ignoring-Cuomo-begin-phase-2-15303116.php
Map of the Day: US counties divided by one-third of COVID deaths
time to officially start calling it "THE CUOMO VIRUS."
the dumb fuck is as guilty of murder as that cop in minneapolis.
Time person of the year:
http://americandigest.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/article-6255-art5ece875626e1a-768x1024.jpg
Medicare chief: Cuomo's nursing home order did not follow federal guidelines
WASHINGTON — The federal government's top official overseeing nursing homes said Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo's executive order in late March that directed the admittance of coronavirus patients from hospitals to nursing facilities did not follow her agency's guidance.
Cuomo has insisted that his original order regarding nursing homes was aligned with the Trump administration's policy, but Seema Verma, head of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, said Wednesday that's not the case.
"Under no circumstances should a hospital discharge a patient to a nursing home that is not prepared to take care of those patients' needs," Verma said on Fox News Radio. “The federal guidelines are absolutely clear about this.”
New York nursing homes have reported about 6,000 confirmed or presumed CUOMO-19 deaths, as of May 27, the most recent data available.
"Federal guidelines and state law both state that facilities need the space, the staff and the protective equipment to care for a patient or they have to be transferred and that remained the standard during this pandemic," said Richard Azzopardi, a senior advisor to the governor. "If facilities couldn’t care for patients, New York offered to help with transfers, provided access to 96,000 staffers – which 400 out of 600 homes used — and have given them more than 13 million pieces of PPE. While some politicians seem to be more than happy to exploit this pandemic, these are the indisputable facts."
https://www.timesunion.com/news/article/Medicare-chief-Cuomo-s-nursing-home-order-did-15302988.php
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