- Let's assume that people who test for Covid do not do so for at least a few days after garnering symptoms. I doubt many people get a cough or some congestion immediately go in for testing. However, they say by day seven that breathing is quite labored and by then one would think that most have either been tested or are going in for testing.
- For sake of argument, let's say the average person would test for Covid-19 somewhere between five to seven days into it. But, of course, nearly all of your testing sites have to send out your swab to a lab before you actually get results. Most places will tell you to expect three to five days. From personal experience (my son was tested) and from anecdotal stories, the average right now is closer to two to three days.
- So by the time a positive Covid-19 test has been confirmed and reported, the person in question is likely somewhere between a week to two weeks into the virus. The median time for someone to become hospitalized in an ICU unit is approximately twelve days. This suggests that there would be only a few days lag between a positive test and a new hospitalization. In some cases the hospitalization might actually precede the positive test result.
- Once hospitalized, the average time to death is approximately a week. The average time for someone to be released after beating Covid is approximately ten days.
- What this tells us is that the time it should take for a reported new cases to turn into a new death (all things considered) would be somewhere between a week to ten days.
We have now had approximately three weeks where the number of positive tests nationally (day to day) have been more than they were the week before (with only a couple of exceptions). But on the flip side we have seen a decrease in the number of deaths going back to the beginning of this month in all but two days.
So while people keep "expecting" all of the new positive test results to start turning into a steep increase in deaths, the reality is that we should have already been seeing a fairly strong uptick in deaths. I am not saying that we will not see an uptick in deaths over the next couple of weeks, but I also wouldn't bet my mortgage that we will see anything dramatic (like we are seeing with new cases).
Rather, what I might expect is that we may see a leveling off of deaths from a week to week standpoint. Last weekend we saw the first day under 300 deaths since March. That's a pretty low bar to pass under again. I would like to see it happen, but I wouldn't bet my mortgage on that either.
Ultimately if we compare the number of deaths we are seeing today compared to the number of deaths we were seeing in April and May (when we were seeing the same amount of new cases) the differences are staggering. That cannot be accounted for by any sort of lag time or anything short of completely different circumstances. What exactly is different today vs what we were seeing in April and May is not entirely known. Lot's of hypotheses for why this is, but nothing that can explain it completely.
Rather, what I might expect is that we may see a leveling off of deaths from a week to week standpoint. Last weekend we saw the first day under 300 deaths since March. That's a pretty low bar to pass under again. I would like to see it happen, but I wouldn't bet my mortgage on that either.
Ultimately if we compare the number of deaths we are seeing today compared to the number of deaths we were seeing in April and May (when we were seeing the same amount of new cases) the differences are staggering. That cannot be accounted for by any sort of lag time or anything short of completely different circumstances. What exactly is different today vs what we were seeing in April and May is not entirely known. Lot's of hypotheses for why this is, but nothing that can explain it completely.
55 comments:
You know, you would seem a lot more credible if you just admitted that Fauci and Birx were correct to warn strongly against opening up America too soon, and you and Trump were WRONG not to listen to them.
Those two have been firm in their advice.
They have been on both sides consistently.
James
You know, you would seem a lot more credible if you just admitted that Fauci and Birx were correct to warn strongly against opening up America too soon, and you and Trump were WRONG not to listen to them
says the lying piece of shit "pastor" who spends all day spamming threads with uncredited Goddard spam.
GO FUCK YOURSELF PEDERAST as others often say to you. Then go directly to HELL
Such a super stupid statement from this foul mouth who can't figure out that Goddard almost never comments himself, but gives clearly accredited commentary of others.
Nov. 4th, 2020
BLM and Antifa are put back in a box by the Socialist Party , IF Biden wins.
Oh and the Rioting.
Breakfast staples of Americans for years will be leaving.
Firing two Black Men, Two black women and and Indian .
Democrat party be proud .
Journalist at Trump Rally Tests Positive
A journalist who attended President Donald Trump’s rally in Tulsa last week said Friday he has tested positive for the coronavirus, the AP reports.
Most Americans Will Be Banned from Travel to Europe
“The European Union will bar most travelers from the United States, Russia, and dozens of other countries considered too risky because they have not controlled the coronavirus outbreak,” the New York Times reports.
“The exclusion of the United States, an important source of tourism to the European Union, represented a stinging rebuke to the Trump administration’s management of the coronavirus scourge.”
_________
MISmanagement.
Seems to me that the opinions of polls that think opening the country too fast is just an aberration and that these voters are trying to kill the economy to get back at trump!!!!!! Yep.....the current spike is a hoax and all those getting sick are faking it!!!!! Not a problem according to cramps and the goat fucker.....the economy is more important to them than lives!!!!! Pence said we had flattened the curve.....BWAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!! Another lie from trumps minion!!!
The country is burning down and trump is worried about stupid fucking confederate monuments and taking the healthcare life line from the people most affect by the virus.....I am sure this will help bring people into the trump fold and support him in 2020!!!! Anyone know what he plans on doing in his next term other than fucking things up more??????
Trump administration’s move to end Obamacare amid pandemic reignites political fight
The move undercuts the president's pledges to ensure coverage for those with preexisting conditions as his administration and the broader Republican Party seek to erase that protection.
Journalist at Trump Rally Tests Positive
June 26, 2020 at 10:42 pm EDT
A journalist who attended President Donald Trump’s rally in Tulsa last week said Friday he has tested positive for the coronavirus, the AP reports.
The Measures to Protect Trump from Coronavirus
CNN:
“As he seeks to insert rival Joe Biden’s health into the presidential campaign, Trump has voiced escalating concern about how it would appear if he contracted coronavirus and has insisted on steps to protect himself, even as he refuses to wear a mask in public and agitates for large campaign rallies where the virus could spread.
“When he travels to locations where the virus is surging, every venue the President enters is inspected for potential areas of contagion by advance security and medical teams, according to people familiar with the arrangements. Bathrooms designated for the President’s use are scrubbed and sanitized before he arrives. Staff maintain a close accounting of who will come into contact with the President to ensure they receive tests.”
Journalist at Trump Rally Tests Positive
June 26, 2020 at 10:42 pm EDT
A journalist who attended President Donald Trump’s rally in Tulsa last week said Friday he has tested positive for the coronavirus, the AP reports.
Reading between the lines, he or she was probably infected before he or she attended the rally and spread it to her colleagues.
This is implication without actual attribution.
So like the activist media and the stooge James who parrots them.
Denny a self-proclaimed Troll.
So, you trolled a fake sickness in Goodland to attempt to gain personal information about me.
Creepy behavior old man.
The Three Socialist Stooges of the Revolution are in support of CAIR-Antifa-black lives matter destroying .
James said...
Such a super stupid statement from this foul mouth who can't figure out that Goddard almost never comments himself, but gives clearly accredited commentary of others.
Yes Goddard does properly credit others in HIS articles. You actually take another step and REMOVE his tagline (by Taegan Goddard) which is between his self-made "headline" and his self-summarized article and any commentary when you repost them here.
Extra work to hide your source.
And then you plop it in any thread, often many multiple articles on many different topics unrelated to any single topic. An avalanche of SPAM. And often duplicated in multiple treads or repeated in the same thread.
That is also PLAGIARISM. And I don't believe you are that stupid to not recognize that. But I guess you may be even more stupid than I realize.
What a FUCKING IDIOT and DISHONEST LIAR.
And EVERYONE here realizes that, that is your "legacy" and what should be on your tombstone. You OWN it
White Privilege Jane and Denise both own two homes.
They are unwoke white Trash.
Plagiarism is when you quote something and put your own name on it as if you yourself wrote it.
Crediting NYT, WaPo, Politico, Chicago Tribune, individual commentators, individual politicians, etc., etc., etc., which is what Goddard does and what I do is not plagiarism.
Blogger KansasDemocrat said...
White Privilege Jane and Denise both own two homes.
Wow....the goat fucker is showing envy of others doing well,,,,,,,,BWWWWWWWWW!!! I guess living in mommy's basement because it was free is your burden to bear and for me to laugh my ass off at you!!!!!!
what you do is plagiarism, pederast.
now fuck off.
these twatwaffles voted to disband the police -
MINNEAPOLIS (FOX 9) - The City of Minneapolis is spending $4,500 a day for private security for three council members who have received threats following the police killing of George Floyd, FOX 9 has learned.
A city spokesperson said the private security details have cost the city $63,000 over the past three weeks.
The three council members who have the security detail – Andrea Jenkins (Ward 8), and Phillipe Cunningham (Ward 4), and Alondra Cano (Ward 9)– have been outspoken proponents of defunding the Minneapolis Police Department.
https://www.fox9.com/news/minneapolis-council-members-get-private-security-after-threats
rrb said...
what you do is plagiarism, pederast.
now fuck off.
plagiarism from a pathological liar.
Who just can't admit it, that's all he has.
His life is a lie.
Trump Is Out of Touch with Voters on Race
A new New York Times/Siena poll
finds 59% of voters,
including 52% of white voters, believe the death of George Floyd at the hands of the police in Minneapolis was “part of a broader pattern of excessive police violence toward African Americans.”
The Black Lives Matter movement and the police had similar favorability ratings, with
44% of voters viewing the movement as “very favorable,” almost identical to the
43% rating for the police.
“The numbers add to the mounting evidence that recent protests have significantly shifted public opinion on race, creating potential political allies for a movement that was, within the past decade, dismissed as fringe and divisive. It also highlights how President Trump is increasingly out of touch with a country he is seeking to lead for a second term: While he has shown little sympathy for the protesters and their fight for racial justice, and has continued to use racist language that many have denounced, voters feel favorably toward the protests and their cause.”
_________
All quotes are from the poll.
Plagiarism? LOL
rrb said...
these twatwaffles voted to disband the police
they need to personally reimburse the city
A new New York Times/Siena poll
finds 59% of voters,
including 52% of white voters, believe the death of George Floyd at the hands of the police in Minneapolis was “part of a broader pattern of excessive police violence toward African Americans.”
sometimes i wonder just exactly how many Americans are fucking imbeciles.
then the NY Times and Siena college answer the question for me.
roughly half.
His life is a lie.
he was never a pastor of any legitimate church, that's for sure.
james asked, plagiarism?
Trump Is Out of Touch with Voters on Race
June 27, 2020 at 7:44 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 73 Comments
A new New York Times/Siena poll finds.............
YEP, plagiarism. Note the headline is directly Goddard's. The summary is directly Goddard's. Everything that is not in quotes is directly Goddard. You copied it over and cut out his direct attribution.
Very definition of PLAGIARISM, not crediting someone else's work
CDC maps show Florida's deepening coronavirus crisis
By Christopher Wilson, Yahoo News
Florida announced nearly 9,000 new daily coronavirus cases on Friday, breaking its previous record and sparking new concerns about a surge across the South.
The dramatic growth of cases over the past month in Florida, and other states including Arizona and Texas, can be seen in internal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention maps obtained by Yahoo News. Those maps, part of the agency’s daily updates marked for internal use only, show that about one month ago many counties in Florida were depicted in blue, yellow and orange colors, indicating that they were in a downward trajectory for coronavirus cases.
Now almost all of Florida is blanketed in red, indicating that those parts of the state are seeing no downward trend. The maps also show significantly fewer counties across the United States trending down now than there were a month ago.
Florida’s Department of Health on Friday morning confirmed 8,942 new cases, nearly double the previous daily record, set on Wednesday. The case total in the state now stands at 122,960, with more than 3,400 deaths. About 81 percent of adult intensive care unit beds were full as of Wednesday.
Rebekah Jones, the former supervisor for the state’s coronavirus data dashboard, was fired in May after claiming that her supervisors were attempting to make her manipulate data for political reasons. She claimed this week that Florida officials were continuing to twist data to make their response look better.
When the Miami Herald asked Gov. Ron DeSantis about Jones’s claims this week, he said the newspaper was “chasing the conspiracy bandwagon.”
On Friday morning, Halsey Beshears, secretary of the Florida Department of Business and Professional Regulation, announced that the state was prohibiting the drinking of alcohol at bars in an attempt to stop crowds from gathering. Portending this week’s news, a viral story earlier this month told of a Jacksonville woman and 15 of her friends who contracted the disease after gathering at a bar on June 6.
“I think we were careless and we went out into a public place when we should not have. And we were not wearing masks. I think we had a whole ‘Out of sight, out of mind’ mentality. The state opens back up and said everybody was fine, so we took advantage of that,” said Erika Crisp, who works in health care.
While the Palm Beach County commissioners voted to make mask wearing mandatory, a clip from their meeting went viral Wednesday showing citizens opposing masks by promoting wild conspiracy theories.
In May, Yahoo News reported on an internal Department of Homeland Security briefing that cited Palm Beach County as a potential emerging hot spot. Since that time, the virus has surged across the state.
As the United States sees record highs for daily cases, there is positive news in that the death rate is declining, possibly reflecting the fact that many of the new patients are younger. But deaths lag new cases by several weeks to months, and there is a worrisome sign in the rise in cases requiring hospitalization.
According to tracking numbers from Johns Hopkins University, the U.S. has had more than 124,000 deaths and 2.4 million positive cases, far more than any other nation.
Jana Winter contributed reporting to this story.
(She and Christopher did not plagiarize, heh heh heh.)
Nearly all the studies find between 10 and 100 times the number of total infections as reported infections, with the average somewhere around 20 to 25 times.
In other words, while the CDC reports 2.34 million Americans have been infected with the coronavirus, the actual number of infected and recovered people may be closer to 50 million. (CDC Director Robert Redfield told journalists Thursday that the number of cases may be 10 times higher than the earlier 2.34 million.)
Thus, the death rate, which would be 5.2 percent based on that 2.34 million figure, is actually more like one-20th as high — or 0.26 percent.
https://nypost.com/2020/06/25/getting-realistic-about-the-coronavirus-death-rate/
1. to steal and pass off (the ideas or words of another) as one's own 2. to use (another's production) without crediting the source 3. to commit literary theft 4. to present as new and original an idea or product derived from an existing sourceIn other words, plagiarism is an act of fraud. It involves both stealing someone else's work and lying about it afterward.
https://www.plagiarism.org/article/what-is-plagiarism
At the beginning of this thread, I said:
You know, Ch, you would seem a lot more credible if you just admitted that Fauci and Birx were correct to warn strongly against opening up America too soon, and you and Trump were WRONG not to listen to them.
Truer words were never spoken.
Definition of PLAGIARISM linked above for the LYING. PALGIARIZING piece of shit "pastor"
Just bothers me that someone would pass themselves off as a holy man while doing the devils work.
With a smirk.
Normally just browse over his torrent of spam but wanted to make sure everyone here recognizes his constant shit for what it is.
Thanks
* PLAGIARIZING
ROFLMFAO !!!
A new New York Times/Siena poll
finds 59% of voters,
including 52% of white voters, believe the death of George Floyd at the hands of the police in Minneapolis was “part of a broader pattern of excessive police violence toward African Americans.”
Which in contrary to the actual statistical evidence. But don't let the facts get in the way of a divisive narrative.
James you stole, passed off and misrepresentated the true source of your crap.
That's plagersim.
tern of excessive police violence toward African Americans.”
Which in contrary to the actual statistical evidence. But don't let the facts get in the way of a divisive narrative
Funny that statistical evidence here you believe....while statistical .evidence of GW is fucking hoax!!!!!! BWAAAAAAA!!!
Alex Berenson
@AlexBerenson
From a reader in north Florida:
https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1276868769005162498
interesting anectodical input on what another factor in what is occurring with the numbers on Covid. There does appear to be a divergence in different statistics and hopefully deaths will not show an uptick and this may be part of the reason why.
GW is not statical evidence, it is a model of dubious value.
On other words, if the "scientist" wants the model to show global warming then the model will show global warming.
Just like the COVID-19 models show an apocalyptical pandemic when it didn't really come to pass.
"what you do is plagiarism, pederast."
James Biden.
aka
BettleJuice Biden
Just like the COVID-19 models show an apocalyptical pandemic when it didn't really come to pass."
Except in BettleJuice Biden's Flatlining brain.
"125,000,000 Americans " Joe knows statistics
Yep.....the current spike is a hoax and all those getting sick are faking it!!!
Too bad they can't fake dying, huh?
Then they could really be convincing people!
A journalist who attended President Donald Trump’s rally in Tulsa last week said Friday he has tested positive for the coronavirus, the AP reports.
The event was Sunday. In order to get test results back by Friday, this person would have had to have taken the test no later than Wednesday, which would have put his virus at less than 72 hours if it actually came "from" the event.
The chances that this person caught the virus "from" attending the event is slim to none. Likely already had it.
Rep. Dan Crenshaw
@RepDanCrenshaw
A lot of politicians are using new COVID-19 cases in Texas to scare people.
So we need to get some facts straight and provide some context.
Watch: 1/2 VIDEO: https://twitter.com/RepDanCrenshaw/status/1276636236803866626
2/2 VIDEO:
https://twitter.com/RepDanCrenshaw/status/1276636325882494978
Some calm and reason in a storm of media hysteria.
Commonsense said...
GW is not statical evidence, it is a model of dubious value.
BWAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!! Really cramps......you really are the dumbest fuck here next to the goat fucker...... Plenty of real stats in the following, but knowing you to be a closed minded lazy fuck....will not bother!!!!!
https://www.statista.com/topics/1148/global-climate-change/
Some calm and reason in a storm of media hysteria
Tell that to the 126k families who have lost loved ones you disingenuous piece of fucking shit!!!!!! I bet you think trump also had a great week of news too......BWAAAAAAAAAAA!@!!!!!!
Arizona COVID-19 hospitalizations plunge by 14%; ventilator usage drops by 25%
...The number of ventilators being used by "positive or suspected COVID-19 patients" dropped even more steeply, falling 25% from 415 patients to 312, Arizona numbers show.
COVID-19 patients in the state's ICU wards also fell, though by a more modest 4.9%, from 611 to 581. Overall, discharges of coronavirus patients jumped by 23% compared to Wednesday.
In addition, deaths in Arizona have been plunging since June 15,
according to the dashboard, though the system notes that "recent deaths may not be reported yet," suggesting those numbers could increase as more data becomes available.
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/arizona-covid-19-hospitalizations-plunge-12-ventilator-usage-drops-25
cue more screaming from the left
and as to polls mentioned earlier...
M.Joseph Sheppard
@SHEPMJS
LOL; "Biden's lead drops 10 points to only 4 in new HarrisX/The Hill poll (D+5) while Sienna has him up by 14
Party loyalty seems to be intensifying for the President with a 4 percentage point increase of support among Republican voters."
https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/504724-poll-bidens-2020-lead-narrows
Damn that evaporated quick. More volatile than the stock market.
Catturd ™
@catturd2
Remember ...
This is ... "WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE!" weekend.
But don't worry, though ... next weekend it'll probably be back to ... "ALL WHITE PEOPLE ARE RACISTS" weekend.
every week as far as we can see
Creepy Dennis attempting to gain personal data of others here.
Creepy Dennis attempting to gain personal data of others here.
And the bottom basement dweller complains about something he does all the time......BWAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!
That's not a denial. Denny enjoys doxxing other people.
For the assholes here who are close to 60......you may be older than you thought......BWAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!
By Katherine Ellison
June 27, 2020 at 9:00 a.m. EDT
Add to list
More than 20 million Americans ages 60 to 65 got a rude surprise this year.
Many of us, BC — before the novel coronavirus — had counted on a little more time before we had to see ourselves as “old.” Yet in recent weeks, we’ve been shoved toward senescence as supermarkets have scheduled “senior hours” for those 60 and older, and major media have reported experts’ warnings that the elderly, starting at age 60, are extra vulnerable.
Suddenly 60 is the new 65. At 62, I believe I speak for many other late-stage boomers when I say: Wait, what?
“I turn 60 later this year so I noticed that acutely,” said Chip Conley, founder of the Modern Elder Academy, which he calls the world’s first midlife wisdom school. “It was all of a sudden: I’m in a high-risk group? I’m perceived as elderly?”
Pence says it is ‘encouraging news’ that many new coronavirus cases are young Americans
I don’t mean to reject any help that might keep me and my graying cohort alive. Bring on those peaceful senior shopping hours. Nor would I ever argue that policing these linguistic limits should be a top priority when thousands of Americans have died, tens of millions are out of work and our democracy is floundering.
All the same, this sudden downward pressure on the boundary of old age strikes me as un-American. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Census for years have used 65 to define older Americans. (It was only last Thursday that the CDC tried to calm the confusion with a news release stating: “It’s not just those over the age of 65 who are at increased risk for severe illness.”) You still can’t get Medicare until 65 or full Social Security benefits until age 66. So maybe this is something else we can blame on China and the World Health Organization, given that both use “over 60” to define old age, and both have been the source of a lot of coronavirus news.
More important, for those of us in the early-60s gray zone, the slipping standard harms more than our vanity, stealing our last shred of deniability even as the shutdown deprives us of tools we’ve relied on to pass ourselves off as younger, such as Botox, hair salons and gyms.
No wonder even many in the over-65 set don’t feel ready for the new considerations and limitations based on being officially over the hill.
“I feel gr his cohort of “fit, never-been-busier, un-retirees” as “the twelderly,” inspired by the word “tween,” for a pre-adolescent.
That's not a denial. Denny enjoys doxxing other people.
BWAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!! No one did that better than the injun cunt from kansas who posted my daughters name, my wife's name and had her husband leave a business card at my georgia cabin....what is most amusing.....the goat fucker once posted his GPS coords on the soars board....the general vicinity was I 70 near woodland kansas......but I am sure with his diminished mental capacity will deny he did that!!!!!!!
Another racist flag bites the dust as....now if we could get rid of religious bigots like cramps, ralph reed and falwell....the world will be a better place!!!!
Miss. governor says he would sign a bill to change state flag
Until today, Gov. Tate Reeves (R) had said voters should decide whether to remove the Confederate emblem from the flag, which was adopted more than 30 years after the end of the Civil War.
Wonder why the liberal proponent of democracy was afraid of a democratic referendum?
Nevermind, I know the answer. 🖕
Post a Comment