When I was in school, we were taught that scientific theories or laws started out as hypothesis, until such a time when the ebb and flow of trial and error molded that hypothesis into a proven theory or scientific law. This testing was tangible and the data empirical. More over, all other competing hypothesis would have to have been disproven, before we would accept one hypothesis as fact.
By the time a hypothesis became a theory or law there was generally only a fraction of the original hypothesis left. Even the best of scientists are not capable of guessing everything correct the first time around. How many different experiments did Dr Frankenstein perform before he brought his monster to life?
When people suggest that a cure or a vaccine for Covid-19 is still months away, it's because the people developing these things are actual scientists performing scientific work. What they are working on today probably holds only a general similarity to what they started with. Trial and error, careful testing, and verifiable results are exactly what science is and why the process cannot just be obtained overnight. Only when they can verify that they have a vaccine that works, will their work be complete.
Now imagine, will you, if these doctors and scientists worked the way most of our politically charged science and scientists work. One scientist would have presented a hypothesis for a vaccine. Others would have looked at it (peer review) and if a majority of them agreed with the hypothesis, well then we would have what is now being called a scientific consensus. If enough of them agree, then there may even be a demand to call it "settled science" (which generally means literally the opposite).
Nobody would have any real idea if the vaccine would work because nobody actually "tested it" in any tangible sense because that would take too long. But they did run some computer simulations and can be certain enough from that that the hypothesis is correct. More importantly, the hypothesis is deemed to be politically acceptable to those they wish to please politically. Lastly, they would shame and cast out anyone who disagreed with them or suggested that we need to wait for actual testing before we can deem it fact.
How do you supposed that would work out?
The reality is that there is real science going on when we actually require real science. But following science today seems to mean accepting opinions of people with degrees, or allowing computer simulations to replace tangible testing and real empirical data. If we truly wanted to follow science, it would require patience and it would almost never be able to drive the day to day political issues that we deal with (science takes too long and is not mobile enough for that). The idea that we now like to intermingle our politics with talk of science is exactly why some people would like to redefine the meaning of science.
Perhaps resisting such redefinition of science is generational or old fashioned or both. But being generational or old fashioned doesn't make it wrong.
56 comments:
Aaron Ginn
@aginnt
Public health and infectious disease experts now want police powers -
"Don't disband protestors... Don't arrest... Don't jail..."
This is not science. There is something seriously wrong with this profession.
https://twitter.com/aginnt/status/1268987637701861377
politics over science
basically same thing as politics over religion
saying all must take a knee to our political masters.
The true religion and god of the left.
"Science" today, or more exactly, the last 3 months has "evolved" and "migrated" and been "altered" .
To me that is guesswork and not at all science more in line with faith or a belief in something unproven.
You probably believe in the flat earth theories.
Florida Sets New Single-Day Record for Coronavirus Cases Since Reopening Economy, Over 4,000 in Three Days.
Newsweek
Blue state blues
Where is the worst happening in...
Riots
Violence
Arson
Looting
Covid cases
Covid deaths
Unemployment
Lock downs
Homelessness
But the answer is Joe biden?? I think not.
More testing leads to more cases identified. Imagine that.
There he is 100 % stupid.
Wonder how many more R's feel like this guy as her abandons trumps bullshit and will go against the will of the fake KING!!!!!!
Benjamin Lund is seen Friday June 5, 2020, in Milwaukee. Lund is a longtime Republican who was raised in a conservative family in the political battleground of Wisconsin, now plans to vote a straight Democratic ticket and rejects any effort by Trump to put a "silver lining" on the nation's pain. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)
MADISON, Wis. (AP) — At the end of one of his most turbulent weeks in office, President Donald Trump was eager on Friday to boast of a better than expected jobs report to argue the country is poised for a booming recovery. Benjamin Lund was not moved.
The 45-year-old Milwaukee man is a longtime Republican who was raised in a conservative family in the political battleground of Wisconsin. At the onset of 2020, he had little doubt that he would support Trump's reelection.
Then the pandemic hit and Lund lost his restaurant job. A processing backlog meant he went two months without unemployment benefits. He later watched with dismay Trump's hard-line response to the police killing of George Floyd and the civil unrest that followed.
Lund, who is white, now plans to vote a straight Democratic ticket and rejects any effort by Trump to put a “silver lining” on the nation's pain.
“The people living the economic reality of what’s soon to be a recession, it’s a very different set of numbers,” Lund said. “It’s almost, in a sense, disrespectful to try and put a positive spin on where we are as a nation right now.”
That's a stinging warning sign for Trump in a state that's crucial to his bid to keep the White House. Though the president would rather voters focus on an unemployment situation that's less catastrophic than some economists predicted, Trump's whipsaw ways are colliding with a pandemic and civil unrest of a scale the country has not seen since the 1960s.
With five months until the election, Trump has time to solidify his standing. But some Republicans fear voters are simply worn out by Trump.
How many people fled New York for Florida ?
I bet a whole lot more than left Florida for New York.
And winter is over.
Record for Coronavirus Cases Since Reopening Economy, Over 4,000 in Three Days.
Mainly in the south like Dade and Palm beach counties where you saw all those pictures of partying on the beach on Memorial Day!!!!!! Yep....we raised a generation of dumb white assholes who think they are impervious!!!!!!!! Very sad!!!
Florida Sets New Single-Day Record for Coronavirus Cases Since Reopening Economy, Over 4,000 in Three Days.
Yawn, hospitalizations have not risen and neither has deaths.
The "cases" can be attributed to the anti-body test that only test you had the virus not if you are currently infected.
In other words it's catching up with people who were infected, were probably asymptomatic, and are now recovered.
Anonymous cowardly king obama said...
How many people fled New York for Florida ?
I guess that proves something for an idiot like you!!!!! bWAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!! I am sure the increases in Ms are related to NY also!!!!!!!!
This is the shortest recession in history.
We are already growing back !!!
The Dow when President Trump was elected - 18,000 and lefties were preaching doom and gloom. Stock futures tanked.
The Dow yesterday - over 27,000 !!!
Yawn, hospitalizations have not risen and neither has deaths.
Well lo iq may be officially brain dead if he gets tested.
ROFLMFAO !!!
For the wantonly stupid coward and his NY theory......
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/amid-reopenings-and-street-protests-coronavirus-transmission-remains-high-in-much-of-the-us/2020/06/05/40c12efe-a670-11ea-bb20-ebf0921f3bbd_story.html
Anonymous cowardly king obama said...
This is the shortest recession in history.
BWAAAAAAAAA!!!!!! That really is funny you dumb fuck.....Get back to me with a link that shows it is over or shut the fuck up!!!!!
If WaPo says it, it must be true.
On this day, Joe Biden mourns the feathers of Americans At Pearl Harbor.
Blames George Floyd for his failure to release his new green deal economic plan.
"I look forward to introducing…I would have already done it had not, had, had, uh, we not had the death…George had not been held up against that curb. I had planned to introduce it earlier, but I’ll be introducing it very quickly,” he said." Biden said
How many people fled New York for Florida ?
Quite a few. Between the enforced lock down and now riots and disorder, the big apple may never recover.
People have discovered that they don't need to go to the office to work and nobody wants to live in a city where they are unsafe.
Add to that the sky high taxes, well, adios a Neuva York!!!
Oh look, Denny is spreading pandemic porn.
lo qi said:
BWAAAAAAAAA!!!!!! That really is funny you dumb fuck.....Get back to me with a link that shows it is over or shut the fuck up!!!!!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/lo_iq_officiallybraindead_story.html
Must be true, it's over for lo iq.
ROFLMFAO !!!
Blogger Commonsense said...
Oh look, Denny is spreading pandemic porn.
While Scott McPhee just spreads his cultist stupidity!!!!! Especially your idiotic opinion of quite a few!!!!!! BWAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!! Which has nothing to do with the current spike!!!!!!!!! BWAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!
Link to me destroying lo iq:
https://twitter.com/fred035schultz/status/1268869392080809990
Coward again shows why he is a trump cock sucker......BWAAAAAAAAA!!!!!
Twitter!!!!!! BWAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!! Proves you are nothing but a flaming gay trump asshole!!!!!!
Anonymous Myballs said...
If WaPo says it, it must be true.
If twitter says so....only idiots like coward and ball less think it is a source!!!!!!! BWAAAAAAAAA!!!
Yawn, hospitalizations have not risen and neither has deaths.
The "cases" can be attributed to the anti-body test that only test you had the virus not if you are currently infected.
In other words it's catching up with people who were infected, were probably asymptomatic, and are now recovered.
poor alky.
he always has to have the most basic shit explained to him.
poor alky.
he always has to have the most basic shit explained to him.
While the ag school drop out has yet to figure out trump and his minions are a toxic stew ruining the country!!!!!!! bWAAAAAAAA
heh. upstate is telling little mussolini to get fucked. again:
ALBANY — Numerous county officials across upstate New York said a new contact-tracing program used by the state to pinpoint incidences of COVID-19 has glitches, and many municipalities are opting to break away from the state's plan and instead use their own systems.
The widening mutiny grew animated Thursday evening during a statewide conference call involving county health leaders, including many who have raised questions about the reliability of the software program developed by CommCare, a company retained by the state, and the counties' ability to maintain control of their own tracing efforts.
https://www.timesunion.com/news/article/Counties-citing-problems-abandon-New-York-s-15320446.php
fredo's brother seems to have the same shit-fingered midas touch as 0linsky.
His public decline is Biden like.
"poor alky.
he always has to have the most basic shit explained to him." RRB
Florida went from testing about 100,000 a week to testing nearly 250,000. Their positive test rate has dropped from over 6% to under 4%.
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429
They currently are ranked 37th out of 50 states in cases per capita. As in 36 other states have more cases per capita.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
The Three Socialist Democrats have joined the "The Alliance Modeling Cult".
You probably believe in the flat earth theories.
There are no flat earth "theories". In science you have to be able to prove your hypothesis and prove other hypothesis incorrect before your hypothesis can even become a theory.
Are you suggesting that there is proof of a flat earth or what?
I suspect you either didn't read the post or it was over your head.
There are no flat earth "theories".
There certainly were in the middle ages...the place trump wants to be to rule like a fat fucking king!! Sad that went over your itty bitty head Lil Schitty!!!! bWAAAAAAAA
As in 36 other states have more cases per capita.
AS in your brain is leaking from the hole in it Lil Schitty!!!
BTW Lil Schitty.....Floriduh had its largest single day increase this past week.....wonder if that is the result of all the Memorial Day party's in Dsde county blossoming????? Not a good thing if it persists for a couple of days....Doncha think Dr Schiltty?????
https://www.washingtonpost.com/lo_iq_officiallybraindead_story.html
Isn't this the state LilSchitty was opining about that they had no problems with hospital ICU beds??????/Gee, doncha hate when he blows it out his ass like that ????? Sad....he constantly twists in the wind!!!!
Confirmed COVID-19 cases have surged in Alabama, reaching an all-time high this week, nearly two weeks after the state reopened. The numbers are startling: The state has had 400 new cases five times in the past seven days. “We’ve had this week a couple of the highest days we’ve seen in number of cases, and that’s certainly concerning to us,” State health officer Dr. Scott Harris said, according to AL.com. As of Friday afternoon, Alabama had 16,588 confirmed cases of COVID-19.
Confirmed COVID-19 cases have surged in Alabama,
actually no... testing has been increased!!
so much so, that they had to put a notice on their website.
what hasn't increased is any hospitalizations or deaths.
IMPORTANT NOTICE
Due to the large increase in volume of COVID-19 laboratory results being processed by laboratories (state public health labs, commercial labs, hospital labs, etc.) and sent to state health departments, the national surveillance pipeline is becoming overwhelmed and is causing delays. This has impacted the data that is displayed on this dashboard. We are now updating our dashboard once a day at 10 a.m. We hope to update it at 10 a.m. and 4 p.m. once this is resolved. Please be patient as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Alabama Department of Public Health (ADPH), and its vendor work to address these growing pains. Thank you!
https://alpublichealth.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/6d2771faa9da4a2786a509d82c8cf0f7
Alabama still only has 689 deaths...
that was an average day for New York at one time!
FRI, JUN 5 2020
New York City reports first day with no confirmed coronavirus deaths since March 11.
Does that indicate lockdowns can be effective?
Blogger C.H. Truth said...
Alabama still only has 689 deaths...
ONLY YOU RACIST ASSHOLE??????
And then compare it to NY is indeed rather telling how fucked up you are about eating trumps ass!!!
Again Lil Schitty shows the world he does not give a flying fuck about others lives or suffering....No wonder why he sucks trumps fat ass with gusto!!!
ally no... testing has been increased!!
Which proves that testing is effective and will prevent further cases you dumb fuck!!!!!! Still the most cases no matter what fox news spins it !!!!! BWAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!
Bloomberg:
Trump’s Re-Election Hopes Look Shaky
“A shifting battlefield map is imperiling Donald Trump’s re-election, putting the president on the defensive in states his team didn’t expect to be competitive in November.
“Recent surveys show Democrat Joe Biden has pulled further ahead in the industrial Midwestern states that Trump won in 2016, as the president’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic and the resulting job losses prompted a precipitous slide in his support.
“As things stand now, Biden could not only regain Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, he could take several states once steadfastly Republican: Arizona, Ohio, North Carolina and Texas.”
TEXAS!
Use the interactive electoral map at 270towin to test various scenarios.
___________
POLITICO
Bernie Sanders Becomes a Team Player
“Many Democratic leaders were irate in 2016 over what they saw as Bernie Sanders’ failure to fully get behind Hillary Clinton and work hard to get her elected.
“Four years later, they’re heaping praise on the Vermont senator and his top brass for their efforts to put Joe Biden in the White House.”
___________
The New York Times
How Trump’s Demands Derailed His Convention
“The buyer’s remorse about choosing Charlotte, N.C., to host President Trump’s nominating convention had already set in last January, months before the coronavirus would force both parties to rethink how to hold large-scale political events.
“Sitting in the lobby of the Trump Hotel in Washington, D.C., that month, a group of Republican fund-raisers expressed concern that what could have been a high-octane celebration of Mr. Trump’s complete takeover of the Republican Party was going to fall short of expectations.
“Convention cities are chosen well in advance of the event. But at that point, North Carolina was looking like less of a problem electorally for Mr. Trump than Florida, the president’s new home state, and one that he is uniquely focused on winning. And the North Carolina governor, Roy Cooper, a Democrat, was viewed warily by party officials as a hardball political player they couldn’t trust.”
_______
Now even Florida and Texas have become problematic for the Trump campaign.
If either goes for Biden, Trump is sunk, sunk, sunk.
There certainly were in the middle ages..
So scientists in the middle ages were able to prove that the earth was flat?
I doubt it....
New York City reports first day with no confirmed coronavirus deaths since March 11.
Not sure how this works... The state reported 91 deaths:
broken down by county
Queens County 17
Kings County 17
Bronx County 10
Manhattan County 8
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/
CH SAID AND JAMES COMMENTS IN BOLD
Now imagine, will you, if these doctors and scientists worked the way most of our politically charged science and scientists work. One scientist would have presented a hypothesis for a vaccine. CORRECT.
Others would have looked at it (peer review) and if a majority of them agreed with the hypothesis, well then we would have what is now being called a scientific consensus. CORRECT
If enough of them agree, then there may even be a demand to call it "settled science" (which generally means literally the opposite).
WRONG. SETTLED SCIENCE IS DECLARED ONLY AFTER TESTING HAS TAKEN PLACE. YOU MUST BE AWARE OF HOW DECEPTIVE WHAT YOU JUST SAID IS.
Nobody would have any real idea if the vaccine would work because nobody actually "tested it" in any tangible sense
WRONG. THAT IS THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF HOW SCIENTISTS REALLY WORK
Nobody would have any real idea if the vaccine would work because nobody actually "tested it" in any tangible sense because that would take too long.
WRONG. NO MATTER HOW LONG IT WOULD OR WOULD NOT TAKE, REAL SCIENTISTS WOULD INSIST ON TESTING.
But they did run some computer simulations and can be certain enough from that that the hypothesis is correct. WRONG. More importantly, the hypothesis is deemed to be politically acceptable to those they wish to please politically.
WRONG. REAL SCIENTISTS DO NOT DO THE WORK OF POLITICIANS.
YOU MUST BE THINKING OF THE FAKE SCIENTISTS EMPLOYED BY THE OIL INDUSTRY, ETC., SORT OF LIKE THE LYING NON SCIENTISTS ONCE EMPLOYED BY THE TOBACCO INDUSTRY.
Lastly, they would shame and cast out anyone who disagreed with them or suggested that we need to wait for actual testing before we can deem it fact.
TOTALLY WRONG, AND YOU MUST KNOW THAT.
YOU ARE ONLY BLOWING SMOKE.
There certainly were in the middle ages..
So scientists in the middle ages were able to prove that the earth was flat?
Yeah you dumb fuck!!!!! Columbus sailed off the edge and wound up in the New World!!!! BWAAAAAAAA!!!!
Not sure how this works..
YOU DON'T KNOW HOW ANYTHING WORKS LIL SCHITTY!!!!!
WRONG. SETTLED SCIENCE IS DECLARED ONLY AFTER TESTING HAS TAKEN PLACE. YOU MUST BE AWARE OF HOW DECEPTIVE WHAT YOU JUST SAID IS.
WRONG. NO MATTER HOW LONG IT WOULD OR WOULD NOT TAKE, REAL SCIENTISTS WOULD INSIST ON TESTING.
Really... then why do politicians demand that we were "listening to science" regarding Covid-19 when it was literally impossible for us to have tested anything (since we were encountering it for the first time).
Or how is it that we can considered computer modeling of future climate to be "settled science" when the empirical data REQUIRED TO PROVE IT has yet to actually happen.
You seem to understand how science is supposed to work. But you seem confused as to whether or not you can "test" a future prediction regarding climate or "test" a new hypothesis about how to best mitigate a virus we know nothing about.
When it come to these things, our politics demands that we replace "real science" with accepting the opinions of certain scientists as the "science" when in fact, they are simply guessing... as we are with future climate projections or as we did with Covid-19.
Our experts have predicted and projected incorrectly since the beginning of this outbreak. I have no doubt that these were educated guesses based on the best information available, but it doesn't make it tested science and listening to the guidelines of the task force isn't "science". We are only listening to the "opinions" of certain scientists (who in this case have unfortunately been wrong as much as they have been right).
So hopefully you understand a little more about what I am talking about...
and are able to grasp how if or when a vaccine is created that it will truly be a scientific reality, whereas trying to guess how to best mitigate a virus is still just a guess of an educated scientist (but not science in and of itself).
The experts were warning that, based on the experiences we have had with earlier virus outbreaks and pandemics, that this one could be severe, resulting perhaps in 400,000 deaths in our country if mitigating steps were not taken.
We have now passed 100,000 deaths even with such steps.
Why do you constantly want to say that their scientific warnings were so wildly wrong?
If Trump had listened better earlier, he might not have ridiculously predicted close to zero cases and deaths within a few days and that it would go away like magic. And we might have avoided some 30,000 of the deaths we did experience.
You want to soften his error by pointing out that no one knew the exact parameters of what we were facing.
Those nations that took seriously
containment,
and lockdown mitigation,
and tracing to isolate
did better than those that did not.
The Arizona Republic:
Arizona Health System Hits Capacity
“Hospitalizations in Arizona of patients with suspected and confirmed COVID-19 have hit a new record and the state’s largest health system has reached capacity for patients needing external lung machines."
____________
Wonder if Arizonians are beginning to wish they and their leaders had listened less to Trump.
I know most of you just skip "james" spam but thought I'd point out:
Goddard Headline
Arizona Health System Hits Capacity
June 6, 2020 at 2:50 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 30 Comments
actual headline
Arizona's largest health system reaches capacity on ECMO lung machines as COVID-19 cases in the state continue to climb
<no wonder the POS "pastor" almost never credits his Goddard political_lire spam.
Has a very political and misleading bias.
You could say dishonest, like his plagiarism of the headline which exists nowhere but political_lire.
And he does this so many times it is not worth the effort. I'll repost my boilerplate which is much easier to provide, like his uncredited spam
And no I'm not going to address his actual spam (would take way to much time and research), I'll let CHT if he wants to or else it will go ignored as most are.
ROFLMFAO !!!
Why do you constantly want to say that their scientific warnings were so wildly wrong?
Actually Reverend... they originally predicted 2.2 million. Then they changed it to upwards of 250K. Then it dropped to 60K. Now they show it at around 130K. So I supposed if you make enough "guesses" then something will end up correct.
They also got it wrong with children, younger patients, and a slew of other things.
Those nations that took seriously
containment,
and lockdown mitigation,
and tracing to isolate
did better than those that did not.
The states that shut down completely have run consistently higher number of deaths than states that used a more targeted approach here in the United States. Also true in many European countries, such as Italy, France, etc... which completely shut everything down and still lead the world in deaths per capita.
You cannot take one or two examples (South Korea and Germany) as everyone always likes to do, and ignore those countries that did just as much (if not more) and had horrible results. Those two countries seem to be exceptions, not the rule.
Wonder if Arizonians are beginning to wish they and their leaders had listened less to Trump.
I doubt it...
The truth is that Arizona is also reporting about twice as many test results than they were projected to be (and what they have been doing). They are also reporting anti-body tests in their current figures (which are going to show asymptomatic and even people who are no longer sick).
Oh.. and btw... their actual hospital use (as reported on their website) is down from where it had been peaking out in mid-May. So they are no closer to peak than they have been...
and the fact that "cases" are climbing isn't really the same thing as saying that "hospitalizations" are climbing?
Did you notice that semantic slight of hand? It's a suggestion of something that actually tangibly doesn't exist right now. They are making an assumption (once again) that an increase in testing, including new anti-body testing that results in a higher number of confirmed cases is actually going to result in more hospitalizations and deaths.
Perhaps it will... but in pretty much all of these examples (from South Dakota to Florida to Texas to Georgia, etc..) reports of new cases did not result in increased hospitalizations or deaths.
Don't you find it the least bit curious that every time someone brings up a state that is showing more "cases" that it always involves more tests... and seems to never involve more deaths?
How many times are you going to fall for this, Reverend?
Actually Reverend... they originally predicted 2.2 million
Actually you dumb fucking loser....as a statistics expert like yourself....your naiveté is astounding!!!!!! That number you quoted was the worst case scenario which as a modeler you know is part of the process....The rest of you screed is just more BULLSHIT as you try to rationalize that old people dying is no big deal!!!!!!!! BTW.....they really got it correct and as more data is discovered on the virus, the childrens malady has turned to be a lot more serious than originally thought, though numbers thank the lord are low, but kids are dying!!!!!! AS for younger patients....that is turning out to be more than you are admitting to as more and more younger patients are being uncovered.....You really should post facts instead of your stupid opinion because trumps dick is stuck in your ass!!!!
Thanx for playing Lil Schitty.....now why don't you admit your fucking wrong for a change????
How One Model Simulated 2.2 Million U.S. Deaths from COVID-19 ...
www.cato.org/blog/how-one-model-simulated-22...
Apr 21, 2020 · This worst‐ case simulation came up with 2.2 million deaths by simply assuming that 81% of the population gets infected –268 million people– and that 0.9% of them die.
And the expert in everything didn't know this......BWAAAAAAAAAA!!
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