Silver seems upset by the timing and results of certain polling
This is taken from one of my twitter feed "lists" that I created for old bloggers such as Silver, Markos (Daily Kos), Scott Adams, Josh Marshal (TPM), Sean Trende, Gerry Daly, etc... I counted 16 tweets just in the past hour from Nate Silver. There has been some polling over the past couple of days that apparently is not as good for Biden as Nate Silver thinks it should be considering Biden should be seeing a post convention bounce.
It reminds me of one of those basketball games where one team leads by 20 points, then the other teams starts a comeback and there is this psychological line drawn where things change with the lead evaporates down under 10 (single digits). It's like the game goes from one that is out of hand, to one that is competitive. The emotional swing can be tolling.
It's almost as if Silver is attempting to convince himself that the 2020 election is still a blowout and Biden is too far ahead to lose, but is worried as if that big lead just dropped in the dangerous psychological area of a single digit lead.
Perhaps the worse thing that could happen to Joe Biden would be polling closing to the point where he actually has to get out and do something other than sit in his basement and send out videos. Momentum is a dangerous thing, and at some point you have to take the initiative to go back on offense and score some points to change mighty mo and stave off a comeback.
Which team holds the lead by the largest margins or for the most amount of time is irrelevant to the final score. If holding big leads for most of a campaign actually mattered, then Hillary Clinton would be President (not Donald Trump).
50 comments:
Portland Mayor Pleads With Vandals: Don’t You See That You’ve Become A Prop For Trump’s Campaign?
https://www.mediaite.com/news/portlands-democratic-mayor-begs-rioters-to-stay-home-youve-become-a-prop-for-the-reelection-campaign-of-donald-trump/
"
i think it's hilarious to see that Trump completely OWNS the pederast and the alky."
He can buy them for a $1.25 total.
i'm just surprised that someone as supposedly intelligent as silver is purported to be, remains so susceptible to being blinded by ideology over hard data.
Rioters tried to burn Seattle police alive, sealed door during fire at East Precinct
It was a mostly peaceful event
Biden and His Hoe
"Fry em like Bacon"
LOL. the dumb fucks on the left have yet to realize that every minute of riot footage is footage for a Trump re-election ad.
Dylan Brogan
@telldylan
Windows of businesses and residential buildings being smashed on University Avenue — which were not preemptively boarded up. This Papa John’s employee asks protesters, “Do you want Trump to be elected?”
https://twitter.com/telldylan/status/1298504147013185537
TRUMP SAVES AMERICA FROM RACE WAR.
Thinking about last night’s Republican Convention today at the gym, I realized that Trump isn’t just running for re-election: The story he’s telling at the RNC is also about saving America from the race war that the left is trying to foment.
The left wants it to be black vs. white, immigrant vs. native, etc. Trump’s making clear that it’s about people who are constructive, productive, and generally happy, vs. people who are destructive, parasitic, and generally miserable, and that that difference transcends things like race.
This is a huge, underappreciated — and very traditionally American — message. By promoting it at this crucial time, Trump may very well be saving America.
https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/396509/
How many times has either a First Lady or a female running for Vice President been called a whore, and how many times has that woman been black?
Oh, I suppose that exhibits MY racial bias.
It's too close to call. The American voters have to get out in record numbers to defeat Trump.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/513734-poll-biden-leads-trump-by-3-points-in-six-battleground-states
I share Silver's concern, but will continue to look at RealClearPolitics aggregate polling, including this:
//www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is leading President Trump across six key battleground states with less than three months to go before Election Day, according to a new CNBC-Change Research poll released Wednesday.
Biden holds a 3 point lead overall in the critical states of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Biden holds a lead in all six states, but it is just 1 point in North Carolina, 2 points in Arizona and 3 points in Florida and Pennsylvania.
The former vice president has a 5 point lead in Wisconsin, and a 6 point lead in Michigan.
Biden trailed Trump by a single point in North Carolina in the CNBC-Change Research poll released earlier this month, but now leads 48 percent to 47 percent.
Former President Obama is the only Democrat to win his presidential race in North Carolina in recent years, doing so in 2008 before losing in 2012.
In Florida, a state Trump cannot afford to lose, the president has narrowed the gap with Biden in the poll.
Biden led by 6 points earlier this month, but now has just a 3 point edge.
In Arizona, a state no Democrat has won in the presidential race since 1996, Biden leads Trump 49 percent to 47 percent.
Trump won the presidency in 2016 by shocking Democrats with wins in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. He was the first Republican to win the first two states since 1988, and the first to win Wisconsin since 1984.
The race is close in all three states, though the new polls showing a tighter contest in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
in Michigan, Biden leads 50 percent to 44 percent; in Pennsylvania he’s up 49 percent to 46 percent; and in Wisconsin, Biden leads 49 percent to 44 percent, up 2 points from earlier this month.
The poll was fielded in the days immediately following the Democratic National Convention last week and provides one of the first snapshots of Biden’s post-convention support. Nationally, he received a slight bump, widening his lead over Trump to 8 points from 6 points earlier this month.
Biden’s speech on the final night of the convention received generally positive reviews, according to the poll, with 71 percent of likely battleground state voters and 70 percent of likely national voters who watched it reporting a positive reaction.
The poll shows some positive battleground state trends for Trump, however.
In the six battlegrounds, the number of voters who expressed serious concern about the ongoing coronavirus pandemic ticked downward by 4 points, while approval of Trump’s handling of the outbreak rose by 3 points.
It's too close to call, right now.
It's 61 days until the election.
The biggest problem, for both sides is the coronavirus pandemic.
If the Post office system is essentially disabled by the Postmaster General, the President's older non college educated voters, are unable to go to the polling stations it will hurt his chances.
If the Democrats can motivate them to turn out in record numbers, they will win.
But I'm not going to declare the winner.
Nate Silver said that the President has a good chance, unlike what you said Scott.
https://youtu.be/HeCuI7DF6wI
That's right wing propaganda
WHITE PRIVILEGE!
Meanwhile cops shoot a black man 7 times in the back holding zero weapons!!!
These motherfuckas want a race war!
Trump has emboldened these
Alt-right motherfucka’s!!
#TrumpsAmerica
#TrumpChaos
#TrumpKills
#Trump
#BlackLivesMatter
#KidVicious😡
https://twitter.com/kirkacevedo/status/1298622828804096000?s=19
The Home Depot
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After they tased and wrestled with him
You fucking idiot
Reagan Battalion
@ReaganBattalion
President Reagan’s message to a media who protected and defended rioters in 1969.
His message is more pertinent today than ever, as the state of our national media has only grown more rotten, biased, and disconnected over the years.
The kicker comes at the end.
VIDEO:
https://twitter.com/ReaganBattalion/status/1298649381344862208
That's how you win
James , The Hoe, is not a Hoe because she's black.
She is a Hoe because of her action and lack of content of her charter.
She is easily tricked.
I haven't verified this.
The 17 year old kid killed 2 people yesterday in Wisconsin has been captured. But he is a white supremacist idiot who is motivated by the President.
Kyle Rittenhouse, age 17, killed 2 people & wounded another last night at a BLM protest in Kenosha, Wisconsin. He belonged to an armed right-wing militia, & video showed police thank him & give him water prior to the killings. As he and other right-wingers fired into the crowd of peaceful protesters, again police did nothing according to several eye witnesses. Look at this boy's age. Look at his eyes. If you think America's white supremacy and terror is going away if Trump loses in November, this is the sad reality.
Nate Silver said that the President has a good chance, unlike what you said Scott.
Sure Rog...
But he sure doesn't seem happy to suggest as much and does not appear to be happy with that CNBC battleground state polling... considering that it was post DNC convention AND commissioned by the Democratic Party.
I wouldn't be comfortable with a 3 point lead in those states from that particular pollster given the timing. I think Silver believes that Biden would have gotten a bump from the last poll they did (Aug 7-9) and in many states he lost ground (Florida for instance went from +6 to +3).
KENOSHA, Wis. (AP) — Illinois police arrested a juvenile Wednesday after two people were shot to death in a possible vigilante attack during a protest in Kenosha over the police shooting of a Black man, Jacob Barnes.
Commander Norman Johnson of the Antioch Police Department said the suspect — a young man whose name was not released because he is under 18 — was arrested on suspicion of first-degree intentional homicide. Police did not immediately release any other details.
Antioch is about 15 miles from Kenosha, which has seen three straight nights of unrest since Blake was wounded by police over the weekend.
Two people were killed Tuesday night in an attack carried out by a young white man who was caught on cellphone video opening fire in the middle of the street with a semi-automatic rifle.
“I just killed somebody,” he could be heard saying at one point during the shooting rampage that erupted just before midnight.
In the wake of the killings, Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers authorized 500 members of the National Guard to support local law enforcement around Kenosha, doubling the number of troops sent in. The governor's office said he working other states to bring in additional National Guard troops and law officers.
One victim was shot in the head and the other in the chest, Sheriff David Beth told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. A third person suffered gunshot wounds not believed to be life-threatening.
“We were all chanting ‘Black lives matter’ at the gas station and then we heard, boom, boom, and I told my friend, `‘That’s not fireworks,’” 19-year-old protester Devin Scott told the Chicago Tribune. “And then this guy with this huge gun runs by us in the middle of the street and people are yelling, ‘He shot someone! He shot someone!’ And everyone is trying to fight the guy, chasing him and then he started shooting again.”
Listen to what he says, instead of reading right wing tweets
Kyle Rittenhouse, age 17, killed 2 people & wounded another last night at a BLM protest in Kenosha, Wisconsin. He belonged to an armed right-wing militia, & video showed police thank him & give him water prior to the killings.
He shot people who were chasing him down. Why a crowd of rioters would chase someone with a rifle and not expect to be shot is beyond me.
But once again, these rioters believe that they can act with impunity and seem shocked whenever someone fights back or if they get arrested.
Listen to what he says, instead of reading right wing tweets
They are Silver's own tweets?
Why would you consider tweets from Nate Silver to be "right wing"?
Of course... why am I even responding to you. You lost your mind quite a while ago.
Did Melania wear that *Gestapo* outfit to send a message to their base? Wow!
The protesters were unarmed. The first person gives them the right to protest grievance against the government.
You keep saying that they were not practicing their rights
Silver did an interview, not a tweet
That's why I posted the YouTube video session
https://youtu.be/HeCuI7DF6wI
I tweeted that to you too
You have lost your mind Scott, I never thought or said this.
Why would you consider tweets from Nate Silver to be "right wing"?
C.H.TRUTH
https://www.facebook.com/1212354292245215/posts/1870951786385459/
The man with the rifle then can be hard saying “I just killed somebody” as he runs away from the scene, while others in the video tend to a person on the ground who appears to have been shot in the head.
Another widely shared video on social media appears to show the same man running through a crowd on the street as someone asks “what he do?” Another person says “he just shot someone” just before the man with the rifle falls to the ground and someone shouts “get his a**.”
https://chicago.cbslocal.com/2020/08/26/kenosha-shooting-kyle-rittenhouse-arrested-antioch-fugitive/
Scott, you quit responding to me, because I have devastated your incredible alliance with the President who is not a conservative person.
He's a pathological liar and narcissistic person.
Despite all the evidence, you continue to support him.
We agreed to disagree with political beliefs but you quit doing that, when Trump was elected President.
He shot people who were chasing him down. Why a crowd of rioters would chase someone with a rifle and not expect to be shot is beyond me.
Listening screaming for help from the police was quite amusing
Stop arming America's incels.
Stop allowing posts from America’s imbeciles
He's a pathological liar and narcissistic person.
Biden is a pathological liar and dementia patient
Tim Young
@TimRunsHisMouth
Kamala Harris is delivering a counter to Trump's convention speech... probably because Joe Biden is too weak physically and mentally to do so.
Maybe Joe has already dropped out.
Let me guess how the press will say she does...
probably already writing their reviews, looking at you CNN.
THIS guy is a white supremacist.
you have absolutely NO verification of this alky, but you're so fucking desperate for it to be true...
you're pathetic.
for alky the asshole -
The Anti-Defamation League, which tracks extremist activity, told CBS News there were militia members at the Kenosha protest but found no indication from Rittenhouse's social media footprint that he is connected to any extremist movements. His posts indicate he is extremely pro-police and appears to have been a former police explorer, a career-oriented program for youth considering a career in law enforcement. Many of his social media posts use the phrase, "Blue Lives Matter," according to the ADL.
Arrest documents indicate Rittenhouse is employed by the YMCA as a lifeguard.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-kenosha-shooting-suspect-arrested-illinois/
While Obama and the press loved cumala she wasn't even the longest lasting democrat presidential candidate from California, though she did last longer than Eric Swalwell.
There was a reason she never got any traction despite a well written planned attack on Biden initially and a large kickoff rally.
People don't like her when they get to know her.
She is off-putting.
Roger called the St. Louis Couple defending their home "Nazi's".
Listening screaming for help from the police was quite amusing
Amazing that a 17 year old white punk shoots and kills 2 people and the assholes like Lil Schitty, rat the UGA loser all defend the murderer!!!!!!! That is pathetic and sad commentary of the old man GOP party that is headed to the dumpster!!!!!!
Roger called the St. Louis Couple defending their home "Nazi's".
I prefer the term fucking idiot white republicans.....just like you goat fucker!!!! BWAAAAAA!!!
Just think fatty with your obesity, diabetes and advanced age you will die with 3 if not 4 Trump appointed SCOTUS judges
Now that’s a fucking BWWWWAAAAAAAA
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