Saturday, August 29, 2020

Not sure I entirely agree with this assumption..

Biden’s Voters Appear Far More Likely To Vote By Mail Than Trump’s. That Could Make For A Weird Election Night.
According to a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 30 percent of registered voters said they planned to vote by mail, and 43 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. But among Trump supporters, only 11 percent said they planned to vote by mail, and 66 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. Among Joe Biden backers, 47 percent said they planned to vote by mail, while only 26 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. (The share who said they would vote early in person was consistently 20-21 percent among all three groups: Trump supporters, Biden supporters and voters overall.)
 
If this holds, it would mean votes cast on Election Day would skew heavily toward Trump, and votes cast by mail would skew heavily toward Biden. This has serious implications for … well, democracy. First, Trump could argue the mail ballots (which, remember, could account for most of Biden’s votes) were fraudulent and thus should not be counted. Although it’s unlikely they’d actually be thrown out, this would damage the credibility of the election in the eyes of many Trump supporters. Second, it could mean the first votes counted on election night will be disproportionately good for Trump, who might claim victory based on incomplete returns. It might not be until days later, after a good chunk of the Democratic-leaning mail vote is counted, that Biden pulls ahead.

While admitted something like this happened in California, where late counted ballots provided come from behind victories for several Democrats who had originally thought they had lost. But that was the exception (and not the rule) and that included a bunch of odd things that are only legal in the strange state of California.

In many states, the very first thing that they count are the mail in, early voting, and absentee ballots, since generally a large portion of those are already in hand. Many times the candidate with the most non-in-person votes actually is the one who starts off with a big lead... not the other way around. It's usually not until late in the night when you get a better feel for who is winning. What this pundit (and others) have been suggesting is that we will literally have to wait several days and be counting hundreds of thousand (if not millions) of late arriving ballots.

The reality is that most absentee voters or mail in voters will have likely mailed in their ballots well ahead of time. Some states even require that the absentee ballots be post-marked previous to the actual election to guarantee that those ballots will be counted with the rest. Most all states require absentee ballot applications well before the election date (which might slow down some mail voting as people realize that mail-in voting is generally a two step process).

While most states do allow for ballots to be postmarked up to election day, it would be unwise to assume that this means the majority of mail-in ballots will be coming in after the election and counted in subsequent days. In most elections there literally isn't enough absentee or mail-in votes still in the mail to change the results of the election. There probably isn't going to be that much of a difference to declare 2020 an aberration to that conventional wisdom.
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We have already run across issues with mail in ballots and quite frankly could run across more. Tens of thousands of ballots pre-printed with voter information already on them were just ruled to be invalid by a court in one state. According to most state laws, mail in ballots cannot be pre-printed with voter information because it becomes easy fodder for potential fraud. In this case, only the date of the election was allowed to be pre-printed. The rest (name address, etc) had to be filled out by the voter by hand. But in spite of knowing that it was a violation of the law, the state sent out ballots already filled out with voter information. 

What happens, in this case if those pre-printed ballots start being mailed in? Those voters may or may not even know that they have filled out invalid ballots. The potential for more court cases on this sort of thing is alarmingly high, which (of course) is the biggest concern for something like this. It's one thing when states create laws over time to allow for more (or even all) mail in voting. But when there is not a system in place, trying to create one on the fly is going to cause more trouble than it might be worth. Especially when the politicians in charge are willing to "bend" the law and pass it off as a Covid related exception that should be allowed. 
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One thing I do agree with is the opinion that if Trump is ahead in enough states when we wake up Wednesday morning to win reelection, there will be a problem if Biden comes from behind in a whole bunch of states with late arriving ballots. The longer there are ballots coming in, the more people will be troubled and skeptical. Generally one would expect that even ballots mailed on November 3rd, that we would only be looking at a few days at most. If ballots are still being counted a week out, you will hear much howling (and justifiably so) from people screaming that these are invalid ballots that probably missed the deadline.

Which of course brings us to the other potential issues. What if there are ballots that are postmarked for November 4th and beyond that otherwise might have changed the results? Will anyone be glib enough to demand those votes be counted? What's a day or two in the grand scheme of things? Expect someone to take up that argument and possibly even some California or Hawaiian judge to agree.  


33 comments:

anonymous said...

I sure would like to have this punk alone in a closed room for 5 minutes to see how much of a man he really is.....This little 150 pound mouth needs a lesson in humility!!!!!!!! BWAAAAAAPAAAAAA!!!!!!

Over the past week, the Republican National Convention sought to conjure a “radical left” hellscape.

Speakers conflated anti-racist protesters with deranged criminals out to destroy the country. Donald Trump Jr. called Joe Biden “the Loch Ness monster,” while the conservative activist Charlie Kirk praised Donald Trump as “the bodyguard of Western civilization.” In his speech on Thursday, the president denounced “mob rule.” “Your vote will decide whether we protect law-abiding Americans, or whether we give free rein to violent anarchists and agitators, and criminals who threaten our citizens,” he said.

The language at the convention comes from the “white genocide” conspiracy theory, which warns, among other things, that brown and Black people will destroy white civilization with the help of their anti-racist allies. It echoed that of the racist-dystopian novel “The Camp of the Saints,” which Stephen Miller, Mr. Trump’s senior policy adviser and speechwriter, promoted in 2015 through the right-wing website Breitbart.

The book, by the French author Jean Raspail, characterizes “anti-racists” as an apocalyptic “mob” of “agitators” and “anarchists,” and depicts the destruction of the white world by brown refugees described as “monsters,” “beasts” and “toiling ants teeming for the white man’s comfort.” He wrote of a world where “anti-racists” are “servants of the beast” tainted by the “milk of human kindness.” Empathy and interracial ally-ship are associated with primitive bodily functions.

Language is a tool for shaping minds, and Mr. Miller knows how to weaponize it. It’s why he draws from books like Mr. Raspail’s to shape rhetoric. It’s why, in 2015, he asked writers at Breitbart to produce an article about the parallels between the book and real life that painted the book as prophetic. It’s also why he inserts vivid, gory descriptions of crimes ostensibly committed by migrants into Mr. Trump’s speeches.


In July, Mr. Miller told Tucker Carlson that the federal crackdown on anti-racist protesters in Portland, Ore., was about “the survival of this country.” In an interview with the radio host Larry O’Connor that month, he said the priority of the administration was protecting America from the dangers of “cancel culture,” which he described as “a very grave threat to American freedom.”

Give the gift they'll open every day.
Subscriptions to The Times. Starting at $25.
Mr. Trump is leaning on Mr. Miller’s dystopian vision to stoke white fear the way Mr. Miller did in 2016, when he helped his boss depict Democrats as elites seeking to “decimate” America through immigration. This time around the targets have expanded beyond Mexicans and Muslims to include Black Lives Matter protesters and their allies. The Trump campaign’s strategy is to cast the president’s opponents as an existential threat to the nation.

cowardly king obama said...


California allows for ballots to arrive 17 days after the election. And ballot harvesting. So many issues it's impossible to actually imagine a fair election in California anymore.

LA County spent a fortune on new touch screen voting machines for their March primary elections which virtually eliminated "mistakes" (hanging chads, overvoting, outside the "bubble" etc which printed out the finished ballot which was fed into a tallying machine. Actually a surprisingly good system. They are being sued (less machines and polling places than old system, slow people held up voting, long lines etc.) You could vote something like 10 days early but apparently few did. Don't know what they are going to do for general but know they are sending out ballots to everyone by mail... Will be one huge clusterfuck, probably lots of duplicate voting, no idea how they will control.

Typical California

But a disease that is spreading.

Results should be faster and more accurate, not slower and questionable. We are turning 3rd world.

cowardly king obama said...


Does VERY lo iq have anything to contribute ???

Give the gift they'll open every day.
Subscriptions to The Times. Starting at $25.


What a fucking idiot.

ROFLMFAO !!!

Caliphate4vr said...

I sure would like to have this punk alone in a closed room for 5 minutes to see how much of a man he really is...

LMAO

Yeah, everyone quivers when a morbidly obese, septuagenarian, diabetic with plastic hips makes empty threats

anonymous said...

BWAAAAAAAAAA!!! You big mouthed loser!!!!! I am sure I would surprise the shit out of you with my ability to defend myself.. All you have is fucking lip and nothing else......Keep deluding yourself as you have 2 mortgages and still have to work while I enjoy my mountain retreat!!!!! LOLOLOLOLOL God you really are funny!!!!!!

Caliphate4vr said...

What are my two mortgages fatty?

You’re a fat simpleton

And yeah, a morbidly obese, septuagenarian, with diabetes and plastic hips would surprise me. You’re like the tin man from the wizard of Oz with lion’s courage, all paper, nothing to back it

anonymous said...

Mouth of the souths Alma Mater......BWAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Df6ergFcq0M


Perfect example of why he is the failure he is!!!!!

anonymous said...

If you don't know......BWAAAAAAAAA!!! You are a dumber fucker than I can imagine!!!!!!!!

anonymous said...

Mouth of the souths major at UGA!!!!! LOLOLOLOLOLL!!!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YofuHJ-01NE


I am sure he was at the heart of these being a GI bill student and more mature than the younger students.....BWAAAAAAAAAA!!!

Caliphate4vr said...

I win again!!!

Got fatty going full gibberish

God you’re easy

anonymous said...

That the best you got UGA boy???????BWAAAAAAAAAA!!!! The only gibberish is your failure of a life and losing ways!!!!! God you are the dumbest fuck next to Kemp!!!!!!!! Gotta suck to be you!!!!!

Caliphate4vr said...

My god your life is pitiful, fatty

Get the last word and then inhale a pie.

cowardly king obama said...

Cernovich
@Cernovich

Trump is talking less about elections being rigged / voter fraud because the polls are flipping.

States completely written off, like Minnesota, are trending Trump.

Hence the change in messaging.

You don't hear Trump campaign saying as much about voter fraud.

Don't need to.


and if you win by a landslide you can fixing voting problems over the next 4 years

Donald Trump said...

Thanks for helping me sew doubt on the election, so I can be President For Life

#MAGA

Donald J. Trump said...

The Fake News is the enemy of the country!

I can't wait to indict Barack Obama for Obamagate.


https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10157777432802807&id=6363207806

Caliphate4vr said...

Anonymous Donald J. Trump said...
The Fake News is the enemy of the country!


And roger is a pussy

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Trump is now trying to hide information about foreign governments interfering in the presidential election from Congress. Trump is illegally shutting down the election security briefings to the Gang of 8 because he doesn’t want the American people to find out about Russia’s efforts to help him win in 2020.

Not one Republican will disagree with the President. They don't have any testicles. Trump has castrated the Republican party.

https://www.politicususa.com/2020/08/29/trump-cancels-election-security-briefings.html

Donald J. Trump said...

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
The Fake News Media has NEVER been more Dishonest or Corrupt than it is right now. There has never been a time like this in American History. Very exciting but also, very sad! Fake News is the absolute Enemy of the People and our Country itself!
5:24 AM · Mar 19, 2019

Commonsense said...

Na, just tired of Schiff leaking to the press. The DNI will give written responces to Congress while releasing an unclassified version to the public.

That way Schiff can't distort the information he leaks.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

If Schiff leaks anything he would be arrested

Commonsense said...

With all their BS about the post office they are scaring themselves to vote in person.

Commonsense said...

President Trump is presidential in Louisiana and Texas while Biden is still hiding in the basement.

What gift Biden gave Trump by not coming out. A ten day head start after a convention that gave him a significant bounce.

BTW after Chris Wallaces crack about how flat Trump's acceptance speech was he has remain as silent as a tomb. Apparently he misread public sentiment about the speech.

Exhibit A on how out of touch journalist are. Even those in the normally friendly Fox News.

Commonsense said...

If Schiff leaks anything he would be arrested

He hasn't been arrested yet.

Myballs said...

Biden actually has an ad out blaming Trump for no big 10 football. Rven though gov witmer is the lone obstacle stopping it. Amazing.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

Biden to Resume In-Person Campaigning
August 29, 2020 at 5:30 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard

“Joe Biden will resume in-person campaigning across the country in coming days amid the still-raging coronavirus pandemic, an answer to allies imploring him to meet voters where they are and a sign that his race with President Trump is tightening as the general election begins in earnest,” the Washington Post reports.
_____________


Polls Show Presidential Race Tightening
August 29, 2020 at 2:49 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard

A new Yahoo New-YouGov poll with Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump shrinking to 6 points, 47% to 41%, his smallest margin in nearly two months.

A new Morning Consult poll also shows Biden with a 6 point lead, 50% to 44%.

Samuel Small said...

I was a cop for 33 years. Why didn’t Kenosha police question an armed vigilante in a riot-torn city?

Samuel Small said...

https://chicago.suntimes.com/2020/8/28/21405539/kenosha-murders-kyle-rittenhouse-vigilantes-law-enforcement-letters

Samuel Small said...

It’s almost as though the teenager arrested in the killings, Kyle Rittenhouse, was emboldened by the lack of law enforcement to even question his motives. Any person walking about with a loaded AR-15 NEEDS to be stopped and detained. Somewhere in that chain of command, there was a failure.

Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...

I don't know who Samuel Small is, or if that is a real person, but if we have a new voice here like Samuel's, it would be a most welcome voice of sanity.

The Voice Of Reason said...

How Democracies Die,


During the Cold War, coups d’état accounted for nearly three out of every four democratic breakdowns. Democracies in Argentina, Brazil, the Dominican Republic, Ghana, Greece, Guatemala, Nigeria, Pakistan, Peru, Thailand, Turkey, and Uruguay all died this way. More recently, military coups toppled Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi in 2013 and Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra in 2014. In all these cases, democracy dissolved in spectacular fashion, through military power and coercion. But there is another way to break a democracy. It is less dramatic but equally destructive.

Democracies may die at the hands not of generals but of elected leaders—presidents or prime ministers who subvert the very process that brought them to power. Some of these leaders dismantle democracy quickly, as Hitler did in the wake of the 1933 Reichstag fire in Germany. More often, though, democracies erode slowly, in barely visible steps.

Anonymous said...

Claim
"The URL antifa.com automatically redirects to the official campaign website of U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden.

Rating

Mostly True

Snopes"

Anonymous said...

The 17 year old , pulled a real feat.
He shot three Felons .
Know known as a "Kenosha Hat Trick".

Pedophilia Kansas Style said...

TOP DEFINITION
Kenosha Hat Trick
Bagging a wife beater, a burglar & a pedo all in one evening.