State of the Race approximately 30 days out

Debate one is in the books with a mixed result that conventional wisdom states didn't push the needle much (if any) one way or the other. I am willing to defer to conventional wisdom on the unconventional debate, since I don't really believe anyone knows for sure what to make of that shit show.

After adding in some additional factors into my spreadsheet (accounting for undecideds and projecting some sort of break to them) the numbers are still showing Joe Biden with a lead about about 4.6 percent. This has been rather consistent even as the polling has moved up and down, which is how this went during 2016 as well.

In 2016, Clinton maintained a lead on my spreadsheet between 2-3 points throughout the last several weeks of the election, even as that election polling swung back and forth like a pendulum that went out of control.

The major difference (as mentioned before) is with Independents. In 2016, Trump won independents by about 4 percent and the average polling did reflect a Trump lead in that demographic. In 2020, Biden is maintaining about a 4-6 point lead with Independent, which is being driven largely by a group of pollsters showing him with a massive leads that are approaching 20 points. As of right now, there are only two pollsters (from the 14 pollsters in my average) that show Trump leading with Independents. In 2016, pollsters were more split on who was winning Independents, with Trump having an advantage. 

From every objective standpoint, there is little reason to question a tangible and significant Biden polling lead in general, even if there might be ever reason to question the size of some of those leads. There is no question that he is up (at least) in the 4-5 point range right now, and given the consistency of my spreadsheet in 2016, there is little reason to believe that this will move all that much. I don't really believe that millions of people shift their vote every other week (as polling often suggests). I believe much of that is statistical noise that reflects things other than people actually changing their mind about who they will vote for. 

While I appreciate that the national polling got closer towards the end of 2016 race, and large Hillary leads appeared to just vanish into thin air, none of that really affected my polling spreadsheet. While the top lines were changing dramatically, the general underlying demographic breakdowns only moved marginally down the stretch. This caused my spreadsheet to sort of "settle in" at the lower end of the range at right around 2.2 percent (Hillary won by 2.1).  

What does this mean? 

Well it means that the most likely scenario in my mind is that Biden will win the popular vote by somewhere between four and five points, which almost certainly pushes him over the top in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, that Trump won (unexpectedly) in 2016. This would turn Florida and Ohio into toss up status, and likely put some other states Trump won in 2016 into play. Trump would be drawing to the proverbial inside straight as it were, and the card he needs might have been been already mucked. 

So there is no doubt that Trump is (by all accounts) the underdog at this point and probably needs something to happen within the next thirty days to change this. While most of you will not completely understand the hows and whys of what I am doing, what I can tell you is that even if there is a significant shift in top line polling towards Trump down the stretch, it may not really shift the race that much based on my spreadsheet.

If you put a gun to my head, I would say that polling will "settle" in at the end (as it always does) and you will see more consistency along the lines of a 4-6 point Biden lead in your RCP and other Polling averages. My spreadsheet might settle down in the lower edge of the range as it did in 2016. But that will still mean that Biden will beat Hillary's popular vote percentage win by approximately double and put him on track to win the Electoral College vote. 

Is there any hope for Trump?

The only thing that makes me doubt that Biden is actually rolling along towards a comfortable victory (other than my personal disbelief that people would vote for him) is that some of the most accurate state pollsters from 2016 have remained consistent outliers so far in 2020. 

In other words, the same pollsters that picked up on the closeness of the 2016 race in states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and others (when everyone else had giant Clinton leads) are also showing better results for Trump in these same battleground states in 2020. That doesn't necessarily change the idea that Biden is polling better than Clinton on a national front nor does it change the overall dynamics that much. But it does provide for the very distinct possibility that all of these state polls showing Trump well behind are just as inaccurate as they were in 2016. 

I've long maintained that it's possible that Biden could win the popular vote my a larger margin than Clinton did in 2016, and still lose the electoral college vote. So perhaps a three point Biden popular vote win in 2020 garners him the same electoral college results as the two point Clinton popular vote did in 2020. So we shouldn't discount the changing of certain demographics still being in play and I would offer that Biden supporters should not feel too comfortable with any national popular vote polling lead that drops below five points.