Polls: Trump now up in Florida and Ohio in RCP and last two polls in Pennsylvania shows Trump up two and a tie...
(currently there are four states where one candidate leads by less than one percent)
For sake of argument, let's say Trump wins those three states. He is polling ahead in Florida and Ohio and as soon as the older double digit CNN and eight point Quinnipiac polls drop from the average, Trump will be about 2% down in Pennsylvania.
All it would take is Trump winning those three states, beating small polling deficits in Iowa (0.8%), Arizona (1.5%), and North Carolina (0.7%) (all states he won comfortably in 2016) and hanging on in states he previously won and is currently leading the polling...
and lo and behold Trump has 280 Electoral College Votes.
In other words, if polling is overstating Biden support in the battleground states by as little as 2% - then Trump would win reelection, in a manner eerily familiar to all. Two percent! A lot can happen in a week that could flip 2%, huh?
79 comments:
New poll from NH, 60% Trump supporters do net tell anyone that they are. The major polls have been bogus all along. We said for months that they would all close dramatically so they could say they were accurate on election day.
Obama stumping for Biden, talking about friggin Cuba of all things. Lol. Thanks a little barack.
Hope springs eternal...
Before anyone gets TOO excited by some slight movement in the polling,
I suggest you go to RealClearPolitics.com
and click on their
"Latest Polls" top banner.
Then scroll down looking at the results of the last few days.
Notice how SELDOM Trump's name in RED shows up.
And when it does occasionally appear, it is almost always in states everyone already expects him to win.
Then, after that and during the next few days, keep performing this little exercise.
It may keep you from being too disappointed further down the line when it becomes ever clearer that Trump is too far gone for a comeback.
I forgot to add
You're welcome :-)
RCP Average10/16 - 10/2650.743.3 Biden +7.4
With the exception of Rasmussen, the average is just over 8%.
RCP shows that Biden has a substantial advantage in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan
I think that you are distorting the polls to show what you think is going on.
Obama is much more respected than Trump.
His speech was he decided to go all in
Donald Trump Jr.
@DonaldJTrumpJr
WATCH: As Biden struggles to answer a question, his campaign staff orders reporters away
You think this guy is going to stand up to the radicle left, China, or anyone else? Just stop.
VIDEO (actually yesterday)
https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1321209313239715840
Also look at the "social distancing" despite the few people
The long rambling non-answer.
The lack of "for sure" knowledge of what was happening on the Barrett confirmation vote, and his indecisiveness.
Biden out in the open is a constant ad for the Trump campaign. Maybe Trump should declare it as such in his contributions.
"Slight"
Biden up 14 points 2 weeks ago
Biden up 4 points today.
Fun stuff.
"Slight"
Biden up 14 points 2 weeks ago
Biden up 4 points today.
Fun stuff.
Obama is much more respected than Trump.
Obama never got anybody elected except Obama. The man has no coattails.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/when-elections-are-transformative-11603465071
Joe Biden is the Abraham Lincoln of this era.
Read this article.
He doesn't declare his favorite candidate.
Yes he does. just because you don't like him but millions do.
Commonsense said...
Obama never got anybody elected except Obama. The man has no coattails.
Well he does have a bunch of mansions including a $11 (or was it 13?) MILLION DOLLAR oceanfront estate.
But he does appear to be a bit worried that Trump wins a second term and replaces Wray.
Might actually face some tough questions and have some much delayed documents/texts released from some of his "right people"...
* 13 MILLION dollar VACATION oceanfront estate.
btw imagine how much jet gas he burns in his ordinary life just visiting his homes
Instant videos
Everything Biden talks about in his few disappearances, Trump uses within hours in his Rallies
Why own "ocean front " homes, IF, you believe in Gorebal Warming.
I really, really want to see a landslide election. I want Republicans to lose the presidency, lose the Senate, lose the House, and lose a bunch of state legislatures. I want them to be crushed for the sin of supporting Donald Trump for the past four years. I am so looking forward to this.
POSTSCRIPT: Are you still paranoid because of 2016? I don’t blame you. So am I. But 2016 was a massive outlier. And keep in mind that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the 2016 polls weren’t actually very far off. There’s no reason to think this year’s polls will be either.
https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president?gclsrc=aw.ds&gclid=Cj0KCQjwit_8BRCoARIsAIx3Rj5d2LxOSD6SiOXvJyA0vOn2jFLZ0IoD_7Ju8VDH47HS_RW-rovNnAIaAl7jEALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds
Good Alky keep touting those Chinese backers
Economist’ Failed to Disclose Lucrative Beijing Ties
LMAO
Roger is Like Biden, dazed and confused.
Massive Rally for Biden in this “Battleground“ State. Maybe 18-20?
LMAO
This is 1996 repeated.
"Among likely voters, 58% said Democrats should not look to increase the size of the Supreme Court, according to the results of a poll conducted from Oct.15-18 by the New York Times and Siena College. "
Please Joe keep talking about what Trump forced you to discuss.
Joe Scarborough
@JoeNBC
Anyone Democrat feeling really confident right now should look at Florida’s early voting numbers. Republicans are having another huge day across the state.
Florida is solid Red
Does Obama bin Biden really think they can win against Trump ?
And the TDS dems all voted early...
That's fake news robotics
I’m in an extremely blue part of GA, voting yesterday no line.
None!
50 booths...
my wife, i and maybe 2 others
Trump isn't Bill Clinton.
He had a strong economy.
Well it's your FAKE NEWS guy
Joe Scarborough
Buck Sexton
@BuckSexton
Lt. Bobulinski comes across as absolutely credible in this Tucker interview. His allegations are all substantive and detailed.
The Bidens are corrupt as hell, folks. But the mainstream media will do anything to protect Joe’s reputation for just one more week.
I've got it recording
Jordan Schachtel
@JordanSchachtel
This Tucker segment with Bobulinski is unreal. He's providing first hand testimony that the entire Biden family, including Joe Biden himself, is compromised by the Chinese government.
I have a feeling I know how this movie is going to end on Nov 3rd
Meanwhile back on the farm...
Chuck Ross
@ChuckRossDC
BREAKING: Feds obtained FISA warrant on PATRICK HO, a Chinese business associate of Hunter Biden's who Biden also represented as a lawyer, court records show.
https://twitter.com/ChuckRossDC/status/1321245725909520384
If "the big guy" is still up he's not having a good night.
And it's not because he had too many "nothing burgers" with his vanilla ice cream.
Tim Young
@TimRunsHisMouth
Tony Bobulinski and Tucker Carlson aren't trending because Twitter is actively interfering in the 2020 election.
Yep, it's on EVERY tqitter stream I'm currently looking at.
Unreal.
* Twitter
Michael Duncan
@MichaelDuncan
For three years we saw thinly-sourced Russiagate hysteria packaged up as breaking news.
So yeah, i feel pretty comfortable shaming journalist for not covering something that far exceeds their own apparently thresholds of newsworthiness.
regular nothing burger "bombshells" here. The walls are closing in etc.
This is what a real bombshell looks like.
Donald Trump Jr.
@DonaldJTrumpJr
The evidence of corruption against Joe Biden is 100,000 times stronger than anything they fabricated on me and my family and we went through three years of lies and hell because of it.
It’s time to show there’s equal justice under the law and investigate.
Joe should step aside.
He should never have been the candidate.
And America is now seeing that.
Poll: Biden now leads Trump by 6 points in Nevada, a state the president was hoping to flip this election cycle. The survey is the second this month from the New York Times and Siena College to show Biden leading with 6 points in the Silver State.
Matt Wolking
@MattWolking
This interview on Tucker Carlson's show happening right now is riveting
The mountains of evidence are just stunning.
Taped conversation.
Texts.
Emails.
Business records.
Firsthand witness.
Where's Hunter ???
Benny
@bennyjohnson
Two whistleblowers:
- One is a vicious partisan actor who had no proof of any crime but leaked on a President he never met and is now trying to cash in
- The other is a direct business partner with mountains of incriminating evidence on Biden
Guess who our media ignores & why
https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1321252550990041088
Jack Posobiec
@JackPosobiec
I’m told Mitch McConnell called the President immediately after the Bobulinski interview ended
time for me to go listen
Troll
The Polling Is Coming
10:10 pm
Nate Cohn:
“This was a pretty weird day of polling. We’re just a week from the election, and there were only two live-interview telephone surveys. And this eerie quiet has been going on for a couple of days now.
“There’s a good explanation, though: the short period between the final debate and Election Day. That created a squeeze for pollsters because it wouldn’t necessarily leave enough time to do a poll both immediately after the debate and immediately before the election. Not surprisingly, most pollsters are choosing closer to the election.
“That’s a trade I’m willing to make. If there had been a big news story or if something wild had happened at the debate, we might all be dying right now to find out what happened and we’d wish there were more polling this moment. As it is, I’m content to be patient and get a really clear look as close to Election Day as possible.”
______
So we should be getting a clearer look in the next few days.
WAIT A MINUTE! THIS JUST IN!
TRUMP HAS ENDED THE PANDEMIC!
White House Says Trump Ended the Pandemic!!!!!
10:20 pm
The Hill:
“The White House science office listed ‘ending the COVID-19 pandemic’
as the TOP ACCOMPLISHMENT of President Trump’s first term,
even as the U.S. has set records for new daily infections and numerous hospitals across the country are stretched to their breaking points.”
Brother!
Cognitive disconnect (stupidity)
The Hill.
The White House science office listed "ending the COVID-19 pandemic" as the top accomplishment of President Trump's first term, even as the U.S. has set records for new daily infections and numerous hospitals across the country are stretched to their breaking points.
According to a press release intending to highlight the administration's science accomplishments, the Trump administration said it "has taken decisive actions to engage scientists and health professionals in academia, industry, and government to understand, treat, and defeat the disease."
The rosy outlook flies in the face of reality, and underscores the efforts of Trump to continuously try to downplay the severity of the pandemic that continues to rage nearly uncontrolled across the country.
As of Tuesday, more than 226,000 people in the U.S. have died from COVID-19. The seven-day average of new cases is nearly 70,000, a record number that is only expected to get worse. Hospitalizations and deaths are also climbing steadily upward. According to the COVID Tracking Project, there are more than 42,000 people hospitalized with COVID-19, up from about 30,000 just a month ago.
Meanwhile, Trump has been holding rallies with thousands of people and minimal physical distancing or mask-wearing. He says the country is "rounding the turn," has attacked the media for focusing too much on COVID-19 and claimed the rise in cases is merely because the U.S. is testing more people.
Cognitive dissonance!
Maybe we should call it what it really is: Out and out lying.
Only the Trump slurpers can still slurp it up.
HA!
The Lincoln Project, an anti-Trump Republican political action committee, shared content on Twitter about the president's supporters that U.S. intelligence officials later labeled as Iranian disinformation.
The posts, which cited emails threatening Democratic voters that purportedly came from the right-wing group Proud Boys, were actually part of an influence operation generated by the Islamic Republic, according to Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe and FBI Director Christopher Wray.
The two discussed efforts earlier this week by Iran and Russia to sway voters in the presidential election.
"The Proud Boys are attempting to scare voters away from the polls," The Lincoln Project tweeted on Wednesday, linking to a Florida news outlet that first reported on the "threatening emails" sent to voters before the FBI announced its findings.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/lincoln-project-iranian-misinformation-trump
the alky and his PLAGIARISM...
Blogger Roger Amick said...
I really, really want to see a landslide election. I want Republicans to lose the presidency, lose the Senate, lose the House, and lose a bunch of state legislatures. I want them to be crushed for the sin of supporting Donald Trump for the past four years. I am so looking forward to this.
I really, really want to see a landslide election. I want Republicans to lose the presidency, lose the Senate, lose the House, and lose a bunch of state legislatures. I want them to be crushed for the sin of supporting Donald Trump for the past four years. I am so looking forward to this.
POSTSCRIPT: Are you still paranoid because of 2016? I don’t blame you. So am I. But 2016 was a massive outlier. And keep in mind that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the 2016 polls weren’t actually very far off. There’s no reason to think this year’s polls will be either.
https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/10/with-a-week-to-go-its-looking-like-a-landslide/
Tucker Carlson is crushing all competition.
Simple formula - report the news, do real interviews and be honest.
I hear ol' skeets 0linsky drew about 70 sycophants to his "vote for Slow Joe an da Ho" speech.
nice job.
At 32 degrees in Omaha, Trump had people bused into his covid spreader. Afterwards, he departed to the luxury of Air Force One, while no bus was in sight to take those people back to their vehicles. They were still stranded in the cold up to three hours later. Seven people had to go to the hospital. He doesn’t care about you!!!!
Day 2 of the Philadelphia spontaneous african american street festival spurned some early Kwanzaa holiday shopping at Target and Rite-Aid.
and once again, the most popular item on this years african american shopping list was the flat screen TV.
those folks sure do love a bargain. and once again the work boots were unable to gain in popularity. marketing has their work cut out for them in this category.
so shop early, bruthah's and sistah's. avoid the crowds and the lines.
hey alky,
these are the same people who would crawl over broken glass to vote for Trump. they're there of their own volition.
meanwhile, i have a pile of dogshit in my backyard that draws more flies than Joe Lid or 0linsky draws supporters.
Bobulinski's name recently became public knowledge when James Gilliar, another businessman working on SinoHawk, sent an email to Tony Bobulinski, setting out the terms Gilliar had been negotiating with CEFC. What caught everyone's interest was the statement that Hunter would hold "10[%] for the Big Guy." Bobulinski confirmed that Joe Biden was the "Big Guy."
At this point, Schiff, the media, and Joe Biden, none of whom ever denied the legitimacy of the email, claimed that the whole thing was a Russian smear. This unfounded accusation got Bobulinski's dander up. As a naval officer from a military family and a true patriot, being smeared as a Russian agent was beyond the pale.
Bobulinski demanded that Schiff retract the insult and, when Schiff failed to do so, he went public and did a full document dump. Bobulinski had saved everything -- every document, every email, and every text.
That's the quick background to the interview with Carlson, during which Bobulinski said that:
- Hunter and James Biden brought nothing to the deal other than the Biden family name,
- What China wanted was the Biden family name,
- Joe Biden was involved in the business deal, so much so that he had veto power over negotiations,
- In 2017, Bobulinski met Joe Biden twice when the Biden side of SinoHawk was courting him to step in and act as CEO,
- Bobulinski also spoke at length with James Biden, Joe's brother,
- When Bobulinski asked James how they could get away with this kind of deal, which seemed to be falling into dangerous territory given that Joe could run again for president, James announced, "plausible deniability," and
- The Biden group stiffed Bobulinski, leaving him out of pocket for all his expenses while channeling CEFC's money into another entity that did not involve Bobulinski.
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/10/tucker_carlsons_interview_with_tony_bobulinski_is_mustsee_tv.html
Giuliani Gets Few Takers for His Hunter Biden Story
7:51 am
Politico: “The Wall Street Journal and Fox News have both reported finding no evidence that Joe Biden benefited from the Hunter Biden business dealings that have drawn scrutiny. More explicitly pro-Trump media outlets — OAN, Breitbart, Newsmax — have mostly shied away from publishing fresher, more salacious allegations. And conservative talking heads — pundits, politicians and loud MAGA Twitter personalities alike — have been more focused on the meta narrative around the laptop, arguing that mainstream media, social media companies and the deep state are conspiring to prevent President Trump’s reelection by suppressing the story.”
Joe is going to simply demote the Sitting US Supreme Court Justices to Lower Federal Courts.
He then will by Executive order move Radical Leftist Federal Judges to the USSC.
No Late Shift Toward Trump So Far
8:36 am
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News study has found no evidence, so far, of the kind of late surge toward President Trump among undecided voters that helped produce his unexpected wins in 2016.
When pollsters asked themselves how so many missed signs that Trump would win the 2016 election, one factor they identified was a late swing toward him in the last days of the campaign.
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News study has found no evidence, so far, of the kind of late surge toward President Trump among undecided voters that helped produce his unexpected wins in 2016.
behold the brilliance of this "analysis."
LOL.
if you're an undecided voter at this point, please strongly consider sitting this one out. you're obviously too ignorant for any responsible and informed civic participation this election cycle.
It was the swing of undecideds that caused Trump to win against Hillary. Not gonna happen this time.
FANTASTIC MORNING !!!
Sean Davis
@seanmdav
BREAKING: On his show tonight, Tucker Carlson will follow up on last night’s bombshell interview with even more audio recordings of calls between Tony Bobulinski and Biden family insiders.
When you are as old and demented as Biden do his advisors even let him know this is going on ?
When you ran a criminal enterprise and your son is a druggie you probably have no idea what still is out there.
Especially since you probably "accidently" wiped your phones, used burner phones and deleted emails...
New Senate Polls
8:48 am
From ABC News/Washington Post:
MICHIGAN:
Peters (D) 52%, James (R) 46%
From Colby College:
MAINE:
Gideon (D) 47%, Collins (R) 43%
From Data for Progress:
SOUTH CAROLINA:
Harrison (D) 48%, Graham (R) 48%
From Public Policy Polling:
NORTH CAROLINA:
Cunningham (D) 47%, Tillis (R) 44%
From Ipsos:
NORTH CAROLINA:
Cunningham (D) 48%, Tillis (R) 47%
From Glengariff Group:
MICHIGAN:
Peters (D) 48%, James (R) 39%
From Public Policy Polling:
MONTANA:
Bullock (D) 48%, Daines (R) 47%
From OH Predictive Insights:
ARIZONA:
Kelly (D) 50%, McSally (R) 45%
A lot of independent voters who voted for the President, are sick and tired of of his chaotic and divisive views, are going to vote for Biden, because he is calm and uniting views .
THE WASHINGTON POST:
White House Failed to Trace Its Virus Outbreak
9:06 am
“In the aftermath of the White House outbreak that put the president in the hospital, his administration could have aggressively used contact tracing and genetic analysis to identify how the virus got into the White House and how far it had spread.
“Instead, one month later, the Trump administration consistently failed to effectively deploy either technique in response to the superspreader event, leaving not just the president and his staff at risk, but the hundreds of people who were potentially exposed.
“Officials say the White House called off early efforts to get to the bottom of the outbreak, including sequencing the genomes of virus samples from infected individuals. This genetic analysis could have revealed shared mutations that linked cases in Washington and other affected communities.”
________
Guess they were afraid people might panic...
Trump’s Chances Are Slim
9:10 am
Jonathan Bernstein:
“With under a week to go, he’s still down about 9 percentage points nationally, and there’s little sign of any real movement in either direction. Early last week, I speculated that there was still enough time for significant changes to the race. That’s much less true now. With the debates over, it’s hard to imagine anything that would spark a shift of more than a percentage point or two. And not only is Trump is being badly outspent in the final days by former Vice President Joe Biden, the current spike in the coronavirus, an issue that plays very badly for the incumbent, is unlikely to help him as the few remaining undecided voters make up their minds.”
Nate Silver:
“We’re sort of getting to the point where the only way Trump can win is with a major polling error, bigger than in 2016 (or if the election is stolen somehow).”
https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/09/i-didnt-vote-for-trump-in-2016-but-id-crawl-over-broken-glass-to-vote-for-him-now/
Hans Mahncke
@HansMahncke
Ciaramella: worked for Biden, remained anonymous, story didn’t match transcript, no firsthand knowledge, no documentary evidence
wall to wall coverage
Bobulinski: worked for Biden, went on the record, firsthand knowledge, story backed up by tons of evidence
media blackout
The explosion of outrage across all social media and the obvious attempted censorship is no longer in doubt by anyone except very partisan democrats.
like the few here.
ROFLMFAO !!!
Bobulinski
Who dat.
"Now Corruption Story Is About Joe, Not HunterHow long can the media blackout continue?" Wall Street Journal
Frank J. Fleming
@IMAO_
So Twitter is basically everything they claim Russia is: They’re manipulating what information people see to try to influence the election.
Andy McCarthy
@AndrewCMcCarthy
What a time to be in journalism: Between Bobulinski and the Biden corruption scandal, rioting in our cities, a new Supreme Court justice’s first full day, and peace breaking out in the Middle East, has there ever been so much to *not* cover!?!
Only people who rely on legacy media are unaware of what is going on.
Mostly TDS dems living in a bubble.
And bewildered.
Kind of like Biden.
Joe will Eliminate 11 % of US Fracking , giving away the US Energy Stratigic Advantage.
David Burge
@iowahawkblog
·
May 9, 2013
Journalism is about covering important stories. With a pillow, until they stop moving.
Matt Wolking
@MattWolking
CNN once reported a fake collusion bombshell that was based solely on two anonymous sources' [false] description of one email. CNN did not see the email before reporting on it.
Biden family whistleblower Tony Bobulinski is on the record and sharing emails and texts publicly.
Democrat state media
https://twitter.com/MattWolking/status/1321298401309433858
As you can see to this point CNN has not run a single story on him, not even denouncing him. They are probably not alone.
The non-story has become a story...
And millions are talking loudly about it.
I don't hear them.
Exchange of the Day
Taegan Goddard
Trump campaign press secretary Hogan Gidley was interviewed on CNN by Alisyn Camerota:
CAMEROTA: Hospitals in Wisconsin are near capacity. Does that give you any pause about going there and holding a big rally?
GIDLEY: No, it doesn’t… the vice president has the best doctors in the world around him.
___________
Er... Did it ever occur to you to think about the safety of the crowd?
Joe is back in the basement in one of Mansions. No Public Appearances.
James, stay in your bubble.
The rest of are living full and active lives enjoying the bounty of our wealth and health.
20 Republican Former U.S. Attorneys Condemn Donald Trump, Back Joe Biden
HuffPost US
8:10AM
Twenty former U.S. attorneys ― all appointed by GOP presidents ― gave 2020 Democratic nominee Joe Biden their “strongest endorsement” in an open letter slamming President Donald Trump’s politicization of the Justice Department.
Trump “has clearly conveyed that he expects his Justice Department appointees and prosecutors to serve his personal and political interests in the handling of certain cases – such as the investigations into foreign election interference and the prosecution of his political associates – and has taken action against those who have stood up for the interests of justice,” says the letter signed by ex-prosecutors who served in Republican administrations from Dwight Eisenhower to George W. Bush.
They also warned Trump’s leadership is “a threat to the rule of law in our country.”
Biden, the attorneys wrote, has “devoted his career to supporting law enforcement, protecting the independence of the Justice Department, and working to ensure that the federal government exercises its law enforcement powers fairly and impartially and in the interests of all Americans.”
The former attorneys general who signed an open letter condemning President Donald Trump served in Republican administrations from Dwight Eisenhower to George W. Bush, pictured.
They also hailed Biden for appearing to understand “that unity — and not division — is the key to meeting the challenges that our country is facing.”
Biden would “make every effort to unite law enforcement and the nation in the pursuit of justice – to defend the rule of law, to serve and protect all Americans, and to build a criminal justice system that provides equal justice under the law,” they added.
The letter adds to Biden’s backing from figures or groups that would traditionally be expected to endorse the GOP candidate.
In August, former CIA Director Michael Hayden and former Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel were among 74 Republican former national security officials to sign a letter explaining why they couldn’t vote for Trump.
More than 300 military families, nearly 500 retired military officials and 500 faith leaders have also signaled their support of Biden in recent weeks.
https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/10/28/20-republican-former-us-attorneys-condemn-donald-trump-back-joe-biden/24666299/
Watch the damning video.
Ok, James is in full spam mode, again.
Dow Drops 700+ Points as Virus Concerns Mount
That just can't be! Trump assures us we have turned the corner on this!
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