So here’s a question we can ask with our nifty scenario generator. Is Pennsylvania a must-win for Biden?
No, not quite. It is close to being a must-win for Trump, who has only a 2 percent chance of winning the Electoral College if he loses Pennsylvania. Biden, however, has a bit more margin for error. He’d have a 30 percent chance if he lost Pennsylvania, which isn’t great but is also higher than, say, Trump’s overall chances on Election Day 2016.
So does it really turn on Pennsylvania? Why the focus on Pennsylvania? Well other than Biden suddenly having to defend positions on fracking and fossil fuels in general, there was a police shooting and... well... riots. More rioting in a critical battleground state, with less than a week to go before the election, was the last thing that Joe Biden needed.
I don't believe it's a coincidence that the response to this riot has been much more robust than most cities and states. These Democrats understand how critical it is for them to get this under control and prove that Democrats can so more than just appease and let cities burn. The longer these riots go on, the more it will remind people of these institutional failures to keep people safe. Institutional failures that have been effectively 100% on the heads of Democratic leadership where-ever they have broken out.
But isn't it interesting that suddenly Nate Silver is suggesting that Pennsylvania (where the polling has moved substantially towards the President) would be the key to Biden going from massive favorite, to more than a 2-1 underdog. Seems like an awful fragile "landslide" in the making, huh?
56 comments:
The coronavirus is spreading faster than ever in the U.S., with the highest one-week average of new cases since the pandemic began. Thirty-eight states are reporting increases in the number of hospitalized patients compared to two weeks ago.
The situation is especially dire in seven states — Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas.
Because the covid covid covid covid President is being blamed for the crisis, he will lose all of them in six days.
Biden leads by 5.2%, outside the margin of error. Unless the President wins Pennsylvania he should start packing up.
Law and order rhetoric is not working for the President.
Poor Ch is trying so hard.
We'll just keep going to RealClearPolitics.com,
clicking on "polls"
and then on "latest polls"
and see how things keep shaping up.
And how about the Dodgers!
Scott Morefield
@SKMorefield
France's mask-mandate insanity:
7/20 - all public indoor spaces, enforced w/fines
8/9 - outdoors / cities
8/18 - all workplaces
8/27 - pedestrians & cyclists / cities
And yet, over 45,000 cases yesterday alone. This is the equivalent of 225,000 in the U.S.
Because masks work!
COMPELLING GRAPH:
https://twitter.com/SKMorefield/status/1320529847786098689
NOT A SINGLE DEMOCRAT GOVERNOR has enacted a mask mandate in their state since Biden called for a national mandate.
Guess they already are not following Biden.
And I saw a maskless COVID positive Turner celebrating with Dodger teammates yesterday. Without even social distancing. Guess the Dodgers are SUPER SUPER spreaders now.
But somehow they will be treated like peaceful rioters...
But COVID fear is all the desperate dems have left. And it is failing,
Putin has decreed mask wearing for all of Russia.
You see, when you open a country up too soon, even stronger corrective measures have to be taken.
Fauci warned us it would happen.
If the President had requested that all the governors to require masking and social distancing in February, when he knew how dangerous the covid-19 was, a couple hundred thousands would be alive today.
His unwillingness to keep the country safe is the worst act by any President will go down in history as the biggest failure in the history of the United States of America.
The JFD is the worst troll ever allowed here.
It depends upon how you define a landslide.
Even if the popular vote margin is fairly narrow, but if the Democrats win the White House Senate and a majority of states, it will be an epic victory for the country.
Roger Amick said...
If the President had requested that all the governors to require masking and social distancing in February, when he knew how dangerous the covid-19 was, a couple hundred thousands would be alive today
He was listening to Fauci.
And actually only 6% of "covid" deaths are actually BY covid rather than WITH covid.
And actually closing down Chinese travel saved many.
Why isn't Biden attacking China for intentionally exporting the virus when they were the first country with it and knew it's danger ??
Do the Chinese really own Biden?
I think roger amick is the worst troll allowed here.
ROFLMFAO !!!
JFD is not only a troll, but a boring one.
First Read:
Biden Is Vastly Outspending Trump
19:00 am
“Trump’s campaign has $10.1 million booked on television and radio ads between Wednesday and Election Day, compared to Biden’s $50 million.
“The president can still count on a big assist from the RNC, which is spending another $12.6 million in key swing states like Florida, as well as from outside groups set to spend tens of millions more.
“But when all aligned outside groups are combined with the campaign’s future spending, Democrats are set to outspend Republicans $109.8 million to $40.7 million on the presidential ad airwaves in the closing days. That’s nearly a 3-to-1 advantage, and it tells you everything you need to know how the political winds are blowing in these final days.”
I think roger amick is the worst troll allowed here.
ROFLMFAO !!!
And the plagiarizing lying POS "pastor" james is the worst waterboy.
I wonder who publishes "first read" and selectively posts sections of others articles ???
Could it be the "pastor's" GODdard ?
Look at all the water he is carrying from a sinking ship
ROFLMFAO !!!
Irresponsible President.
Thousands of President Donald Trump supporters were left in the freezing cold for hours after a rally at an airfield in Omaha, Nebraska, on Tuesday night, with some walking around three miles to waiting buses and others being taken away in ambulances.
Many of those at the rally at the Eppley Airfield faced hours in long lines to get in and clogged parking lots and busy crowds to get out, hours after his Air Force One departed around 9 p.m. Crowds cleared about 12:30 a.m.
According to dispatches from Omaha Police department, recorded by radio communications platform, Broadcastify, at least 30 people including the elderly, an electric wheelchair user and a family with small children were among those requiring medical attention after hours of waiting in the cold at the rally at the Eppley Airfield.
Brendan Carr
@BrendanCarrFCC
“We must ensure that all voices can be heard,” @Jack will testify in the Senate this morning, as we are on day 14 since @Twitter has silenced @nypost.
So much good tv today. Unless big tech and the billionaire owned media silences that today too...
Wonder what Tucker's ratings will be today. Fantastic we still had one media outlet not completely taken over by the "silencers"
Reality check for Ch:
Biden could lose not only PA,
but IA, OH, NC, GA, FL, and ME3
and still have 270 electoral votes.
Trump desperately needs both FL and PA.
James said...
Putin has decreed mask wearing for all of Russia.
You see, when you open a country up too soon, even stronger corrective measures have to be taken.
Fauci warned us it would happen.
so pederast...
after repeatedly claiming a disdain for Putin, you now wish Trump would be exactly like him - a totalitarian dictator himself imposing a national mask mandate.
very hypocritical and highly UNCONSTITUTIONAL.
rrb, did I say I want Trump to be exactly like Putin? Of course not, you liar. I only point out that even Putin now realizes how mistaken he was to play down the virus the way Trump did.
You are such a throwback to what this nation needs to get away from.
correction:
Trump desperately needs both FL and PA
and much more.
Action News Investigation: Who was Walter Wallace Jr., the man shot by Philadelphia police?
Court records show Wallace was currently awaiting trial for allegedly threatening to shoot a woman and her house up.
In 2017, he pled guilty to robbery, assault, and possessing an instrument of crime after kicking down the door of another woman and putting a gun to her head.
He was sentenced to 11-23 months behind bars.
And in 2013, he pled guilty to assault and resisting arrest after punching a police officer in the face.
Pillar of the community..turning his life around...
He had serious mental problems. His family called for an ambulance, not for the police.
Quote of the Day
10:30 am
“You know, there aren’t a lot of pundits who would have guessed four years ago that a Democratic candidate for president in 2020 would be campaigning in Georgia on the final week of the election or that we’d have such competitive Senate races in Georgia. But we do because something’s happening here in Georgia and across America. We win Georgia, we win everything.”
— Joe Biden, quoted by NBC News.
Biden’s Path to 270 Widens
10:20 am
The Cook Political Report has moved Texas from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up” in its Electoral College forecast.
WOW.
Their updated forecast now matches the consensus forecast map.
Trump Makes a Final Push Against Climate Science
10:16 am
“The Trump administration has recently removed the chief scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the nation’s premier scientific agency, installed new political staff who have questioned accepted facts about climate change and imposed stricter controls on communications at the agency,” the New York Times reports.
“The moves threaten to stifle a major source of objective United States government information about climate change that underpins federal rules on greenhouse gas emissions and offer an indication of the direction the agency will take if President Trump wins re-election.”
_________
Trump despises what OBJECTIVE scientific information says when it goes against the big oil boys he adores.
Don’t Get Tricked
The young voters are turning out in record numbers. NBC news
Younger Americans are voting early in droves this cycle, far outpacing their pre-Election Day turnout in several key swing states at this time in 2016.
So far, voters ages 18 to 29 have cast more than 6 million early votes, according to data from NBC News Decision Desk/Target Smart, a Democratic political data firm. Four years ago at the same time, the number was about 2 million.
The increase is visible in states such as Ohio, Texas, Georgia, Florida and North Carolina — swing states that saw substantial early voting last time around.
In each state, more than twice the number of young Americans have already voted in the election when compared with 2016.
'I'm committed': Early voters motivated as they wait in line in Philadelphia
In Florida, for example, about 230,000 younger voters had cast their ballots at least one week ahead of the 2016 election. This time around, more than 514,000 have.
The numbers are even more dramatic in Texas. Four years ago, roughly 288,000 Texans between 18 and 29 voted by this point. One week ahead of Election Day this cycle, more than 800,000 have.
____
On top of that, approximately 50% of the people who voted in 2016, have already voted today.
The President is depending upon the older people who vote on voting day. But his approval rating among 65+ voters, is lower than in 2016.
Re: 9:24, 9:31, and directly above:
"Their updated forecast now matches the consensus forecast map."
_____
With Texas now in the toss ups,
the consensus forecast map has
Trump at 125 solid votes
Biden at 291 solid votes
(he already wins!)
and toss ups at 122 votes.
Trump could win ALL 122 toss ups and still lose.
Poor Ch is trying so hard.
This is Nate Silver's analysis... not mine, Reverend.
Nate Silver (not me) says Trump would be 70-30 to win the election if he won Pennsylvania.
Are you now saying you think Nate Silver is in the bag for Trump, another horrible conservative "wishful thinker" who is "trying so hard" to make this seem like something it's not?
Imagine... The three stooges of the CHT arguing that Nate Silver is a polling hack and that they know better!!!
Or did you (once again)
Not bother to actually read or comprehend the post you are commenting on?
LOL I read it, and the slant you gave it.
It's only the slant you gave it that I'm commenting on. :-)
But I would be more interested in hearing you try to contradict what I say above.
If the next election day and none of the states change, except for Wisconsin and Michigan and the President wins Pennsylvania he will get reelected.
But Silver nor you noted that if Biden picks up North Carolina and Arizona and Nevada, he will win. Plus the fact that both Florida and Texas are tossups.
Plus Ohio is a possible for Biden
I read it, and other sources.
Scott, the President is in serious trouble.
James, Scott has become an advocate for the President, instead of being Thecoldheartedtruth
You are such a throwback to what this nation needs to get away from.
yeah, that's it pederast. we need to get away from the "throwback" concepts of Freedom and Liberty and the Constitution...
...and get in line with a socialist/marxist revolution led by a dementia patient, a two-bit whore, a buck-toothed bartender, and a couple of radical islam sympathizers.
No, we need to get back to a time when our leaders speak truth and have respect for one another and do not use the kind of language and thinking you use.
The President and his son, and rrb is upset with the former Vice President Biden and his wife have made a lot of money since he left office.
But the President has been getting the tax payers making him richer.
President Trump welcomed the Japanese prime minister at Mar-a-Lago, in front of a towering arrangement of roses. The two could have met in Washington, but Trump said his private club was a more comfortable alternative.
“It is, indeed, the Southern White House,” Trump said, greeting Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in front of the press in April 2018.
For Trump, there was another, hidden benefit. Money.
At Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s company would get paid to host his summit.
In the next two days, as Trump and Abe talked about trade and North Korea, Trump’s Palm Beach, Fla., club billed the U.S. government $13,700 for guest rooms, $16,500 for food and wine and $6,000 for the roses and other floral arrangements.
Trump’s club even charged for the smallest of services. When Trump and Abe met alone, with no food served, the government still got a bill for what they drank.
“Bilateral meeting,” the bill said. “Water.” $3 each. per glass of water.
Trump’s Attacks Often Followed by Safety Threats
11:00 am
Washington Post:
“Over the past year, public servants across the country have faced similar ordeals. The targets encompass nearly every category of government service: mayors, governors and members of Congress, as well as officials Trump has turned against within his own administration.
“The dynamic appears to be without precedent: government agencies taking extraordinary measures to protect their people from strains of seething hostility stoked by a sitting president.”
That's rat's kind of President, and it's the kind of President we need to get away from.
________
Another example:
Didn't Trump promise us that his administration would consist of
‘Only the Best People’?
10:47 am
The Daily Beast counts at least 18 people connected to President Trump who “have been locked up, indicted, or arrested since the real-estate mogul announced his candidacy in 2015.”
The swamp flooded the White House.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ballrooms-candles-and-luxury-cottages-during-trumps-term-millions-of-government-and-gop-dollars-have-flowed-to-his-propertiesmar-a-lago-charged-the-government-3-apiece-for-glasses-of-water-for-trump-and-the-japanese-leader/2020/10/27/186f20a2-1469-11eb-bc10-40b25382f1be_story.html
C'mon Reverend...
Even "you" can do better than this? Slant?
Is it a "slant" that Insider Advantage when from a three point Biden lead to a two point Trump lead, or that Trafalgar Group went from a Biden lead to tied or that the latest CNBC/Change (Democrat commissioned poll) sees it as Biden up only 2 points.
Is it a "slant" to suggest that fracking and fossil fuel issues are dominating the discussions at these great lake states or that those are the ads being run non-stop right now?
Is it a "slant" that there are riots that have injured dozens of cops and destroyed dozens of businesses is probably hurting Biden in Pennsylvania?
Where, exactly, is the "slant"?
Other than I don't do the same thing EVERY SINGLE DAY - which is check the RCP polling averages and ignore everything else.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ballrooms-candles-and-luxury-cottages-during-trumps-term-millions-of-government-and-gop-dollars-have-flowed-to-his-propertiesmar-a-lago-charged-the-government-3-apiece-for-glasses-of-water-for-trump-and-the-japanese-leader/2020/10/27/186f20a2-1469-11eb-bc10-40b25382f1be_story.html
LOL:
‘The 45th President’: One in a series looking back at the Trump presidency
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ballrooms-candles-and-luxury-cottages-during-trumps-term-millions-of-government-and-gop-dollars-have-flowed-to-his-propertiesmar-a-lago-charged-the-government-3-apiece-for-glasses-of-water-for-trump-and-the-japanese-leader/2020/10/27/186f20a2-1469-11eb-bc10-40b25382f1be_story.html
they already have written off a second term. my, how disappointed they will be if he wins re-election.
and the alky gripes about a $3 glass of fucking water.
LOL.
Where, exactly, is the "slant"?
_________
Anyone can see your slant in your final paragraph.
But again, I would be more interested in your response to 9:58am.
Joe announces he will be The Hoes VP.
nice job joe.
CH The violence in response to the death of a young African American, is wrong. But it's not going to change the minds of people outside his base. You slant it by ignoring the reality.
The CNBC poll is the only one with the results.
The RCP average is about 8%
Your choice of the one outstanding poll is slanting.
Is it a "slant" to suggest that fracking and fossil fuel issues are dominating the discussions at these great lake states or that those are the ads being run non-stop right now?
the value of fracking and the potential loss of it cannot be overstated in PA. and it impacts not just PA but the southern tier of NY as well. we share a long border with PA and the number of NYers who travel across the border to work in fracking is significant. mom and pop business along the border here in NY have flourished while they stagnate in the rest of upstate.
our asshole Gov has banned fracking in NY and the economic impact of that idiotic decision has been crushing.
"C.H. TruthOctober 28, 2020 at 10:24 AM
C'mon Reverend...
Even "you" can do better than this? Slant?"
Actually, he can't.
I stand corrected
Pennsylvania
Average10/15 - 10/2649.645.8Biden +3.8
If Biden picks up two of these North Carolina, or Arizona or Nevada, he won't need Pennsylvania.
Florida may be the one that matters, like it did in 2000.
And Texas is trending Blue.
The huge number of first time voters, and the preelection numbers are huge.
It's hard to predict yet,but there are signs of an epic change.
The MSNBC poll nerd Steve Kornacki showed that if nothing changes except for Pennsylvania to the President but if Biden wins Nevada the electoral college votes would be a tie at 269 each.
The Nebraska state splits the electoral college votes, and the one vote in Omaha might get one of them a victory. Trump was there yesterday!
It could be a strange year!
And Texas is trending Blue.
LOL.
i love the way you cling to your "dewey defeats truman" impersonation.
Dow Drops 700+ Points as Virus Concerns Mount
That just can't be! Trump assures us we have turned the corner on this!
�� NOC Stock $298.33 USD −3.77 (1.25%)⬇️��
Only a dopie held this turd from $386.64 around this first of the year till now.
The Difference between the two sides of the blog is clear.
IF, Trump Wins, how will The Three Stooges of CHT cope?
Curled up in a fetal position
Just like they are today
Exactly Cali.
1,500 Biden Supporters Rioted last night in many States.
Two Birds With One Stone: Man Protests Racial Injustice, Completes Christmas Shopping In One Trip
PHILADELPHIA, PA—Protests over racial injustice erupted in Philly, and not a moment too soon: local man Michael Parsons was getting behind on his Christmas shopping.
Well, this is convenient," he said as he saw people were protesting the shooting of a man who was just one knife away from being unarmed. He grabbed his balaclava, a sign reading "INJUSTICE ANYWHERE IS A THREAT TO JUSTICE EVERYWHERE," and a shopping cart, and headed out the door.
"Justice for whoever it was!" he cried as he made a stop at Best Buy and picked up an iPad for his mom and all six Star Wars movies on Blu-Ray for his brother. "And you know what? I'm gonna treat myself," he added as he threw a few Xbox games into his cart for himself.
"Uh, police are bad or whatever!" he quickly added as he made his way to Target for some stocking stuffers.
According to sources, Parsons is hoping there's another police shooting sometime before Christmas, as he forgot to pick up an HDMI cable.
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