Election Updates - Still counting on Friday?

Update on the Ralph Nader excuse: The Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgenson was the only candidate to  appear on most every ballot in every state. No Green Party Jill Stein type candidate to offset the Libertarian in most states.

His vote total exceeded the margin between Biden and Trump in Georgia (where Trump would be ahead by about 60,000 votes if you added Jorgenson to his totals), Wisconsin (where Trump would be ahead by around 18,000 votes), Arizona (where Trump would be ahead by about 5,000 votes with more coming in), adding those states to his count (along with North Carolina) would have put him at 269 electoral college votes. 

He would also be ahead in Pennsylvania right now by about 60,000 with 5% left to count. 

Update on Projections: Nate Silver appears to be "lashing out" against critics who claimed he overstated the Joe Biden polling as well as pointing out that he got several Presidential and Senate states wrong (and again they all were wrong in the same direction they are always wrong for him). 

His argument appears to be that he provides "percentages" which means he is not wrong. So apparently unless he projects someone with a 100% chance of winning (who goes on to lose) - he isn't wrong? What the hell is your function as a projectionist if we cannot count on your percentages to be occasionally accurate and not always leaning in the same direction. 

Update on Polling: The main pollster for Quinnipiac is being called on by many to resign, but so far there is push back. Other than the obvious 11 point National lead they gave Biden, Quinnipiac had Biden up 5 in Florida (where he lost by 3) - they had Biden up by 4 in Ohio (where he lost by 8) - they had Susan Collins down by 12 points (she won by 9) - they had Lindsey Graham tied (he won by 11 points). This was an embarrassment for the once well respected pollster. But apparently misery loves company as Quinnipiac is pointing out how others were similarly wrong (just not by as much). 

Update in general: Why is it that certain states are able to count their results in one night, while other states with the same population and general make up are still counting three days later? Is it general incompetence, laziness, or something else?

Update Georgia: They are headed to a recount as announced by the Secretary of State. They have a few outstanding ballots before their final count, but ultimately they are expecting to be done by "the end of November". 

I would expect challenges to ballots, possibly en-masse challenges to a variety of types of ballots, etc... As it stands, it may not matter how Georgia ultimately turns out, but it would be very interesting to watch the various court challenges and such that might actually enter into place in other states (if successful). 

Very important to note II: Why is holding State assemblies important? Because 2020 is a redistricting year, and it's the state legislation that has the most pull in this situation. While the courts have had something to say in recent years, those court challenge on redistricting might have different outcomes given the new alignment of the USSC. Look for more judges to stand aside and more who do step in to be overruled. 

Very important to note: Republicans held on to every State assembly that they had coming into this election, and actually picked up a couple. It's only three days after the election and some have already forgotten that this was supposed to be blue wave election that changed everything in favor of the Democrats.  A week ago, they were looking at a double digit Biden win, with coattails that retook the Senate, added to their majority in the House, won back State assemblies, and ultimately would be provided with a mandate to change the basic structure of the Country. 

Now it looks like Democrats are excited because they might win one thing (the Presidency) but only after several days of bitter counting and a much closer than expected result. Who knows, ultimately what lawsuits and recounts might bring? Perhaps (if nothing else) an end to the way we handle (or mishandle) our entire election counting. (More on this later).

House Humiliation for Pelosi and Fox News: Early in the night, the vaunted Fox News decision desk declared that Democrats would not only hold the House, but add to their gains. As it turns out, the Democrats only actual pickups so far are in North Carolina (which are purely a matter of redistricting). Meanwhile the Republicans have picked up eight races so far and are leading in a few others. It's highly unlikely, but mathematically possible Republican could actually take the House. They have won or lead in 215 races and 218 would give them control. 

If the Republicans end up with 215 or more seats, Pelosi will have a rough time getting things done and may not even remain as Speaker. Given the "usual" first term midterm disaster that most Presidents suffer, a Republican House might be the most likely outcome after 2022. 

Pennsylvania update II: That didn't take long, as Biden is now ahead of Trump in Pennsylvania. I will be curious when this is said and done to look for the same pattern there that we are seeing in state after state. Which is that Trump outperforms in most every county over 2016, but takes a crazy shellacking in one or two large counties. 

You know like going from winning a county by 45,000 votes in one election to losing it by 65,000 votes in the next election, or single counties showing a 50,000 and 75,000 increases for the Democrat over 2016 in a state where Democrats lost registered voters.

Another tidbit - Looks like Trump will win more than 25 percent of the minority vote. That is the most of any Republican candidate since the 1960 election (when many Democrats were still considered sort of racist). To put this in perspective, Romney won 11% and McCain won 10%...albeit against a Black candidate. But W only averaged 13% over his two elections, Bob Dole received 12%, and Bush Sr got 11%. Reagan struggled as much as the rest. 

There will be much more on what this means (and why we saw a surge of Republican wins in the House) for the future of the two Parties, but for now...let's just say that win or lose, Trump offered something that minorities feel good about (likely success rather than welfare). 

Conversation with Democrat friend of mine: Even he sees no legitimate reason for poll workers in these larger Democratic counties to continue to block the legal GOP poll watchers from observing the count. He also argues that the optics are horrible and makes it "look" like they have something to hide.  He also stated that for the first time, he actually wonders if there isn't some shit going down in these counties. He admitted that if any of this was happening in heavy Trump counties that he would be the first to be making the same accusations.

Trump gains nearly seven million votes over 2016: Trump currently has approximately 69,632,000 votes so far, after garnering just under 63 million in 2016. I doubt many people would have believed that Trump could add seven million more votes (increase of about 11%) and still be looking at a loss. 

Georgia Update: Georgia should now be done counting. Not because there is any actual data evidence that ballots exist or don't exist... but because now Joe Biden leads by 900 votes. Apparently people in Georgia have been counting and tabulating overnight.

Either way, this one was likely going to a recount, so who knows when this will be called. It might be interesting to watch a recount, with all of the ballot challenges and such. Might tell us if there are other legitimate challenges to make in other states.

Pennsylvania Update: Still no end in sight as the President still leads by about 20,000 votes. I figure once Biden is ahead there, we will know when they are done too. I am not certain which is harder to follow. Counting the votes or counting the lawsuits.