So which states should Biden win based on a change of polling? Well that really depends on how you look at it. If you simply consider whether or not the final Trump win is outside of the difference between 2016 and 2020 polling, then the answer is Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona would flip under this scenario. More than enough to garner a Biden win.
On the flip side, according to that same logic, it's possible that Minnesota could flip (which would all but offset Arizona). To be fair, Minnesota is still polling Biden ahead by over four points and almost no polling is showing Trump winning here. As much as I would love to see Minnesota turn red this year, it seems unlikely.
But by the same token, Biden shouldn't feel all that comfortable in Arizona with a one point polling lead in a state that seems to be trending back to Trump in the final days. I would also caution that in many of these states, there isn't a consistent set of polling. In Pennsylvania and Michigan there are still polls showing Trump ahead and others showing the race very close.
Either way, I still feel as though there is a possibility that Trump holds those six states I have referred to previously (Ohio, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, Iowa, and Florida) and puts himself in a position to win by taking any of the other three great lakes states (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, or Michigan). Of course there is also an equal possibility that Biden wins Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan and then possibly picks up a few of the others. Trump's margin of error is much smaller and his path to victory is narrower than Joe Biden's.
58 comments:
On the eve of what threatens to be the most contentious and potentially confusing Election Day in modern memory, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden retains a double-digit lead over President Trump in the final Yahoo News/YouGov poll of the 2020 campaign — a 10-point margin that’s more than three times as large as Hillary Clinton’s final polling advantage in 2016.
You got it right
Trump's margin of error is much smaller and his path to victory is narrower than Joe Biden's.
The margins are slim in some polls but they all show Biden is in play for the Presidency
November 2, 2020 at 10:13 am EST By Taegan Goddard 198 Comments
From Aspiration:
FLORIDA: Biden 45%, Trump 43%GEORGIA: Biden 52%, Trump 48%PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 51%, Trump 49%
From Public Policy Polling:
IOWA: Biden 49%, Trump 48%
From Research & Co.
MICHIGAN: Biden 50%, Trump 43%MINNESOTA: Biden 52%, Trump 43%OHIO: Biden 47%, Trump 47%PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 50%, Trump 44%WISCONSIN: Biden 50%, Trump 42%
From Frederick Polls:
FLORIDA: Biden 51%, Trump 49%NORTH CAROLINA: Biden 51%, Trump 49%PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 52%, Trump 48%
From Aspiration:
FLORIDA: Biden 45%, Trump 43%
GEORGIA: Biden 52%, Trump 48%
PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 51%, Trump 49%
From Public Policy Polling:
IOWA: Biden 49%, Trump 48%
From Research & Co.
MICHIGAN: Biden 50%, Trump 43%
MINNESOTA: Biden 52%, Trump 43%
OHIO: Biden 47%, Trump 47%P
PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 50%, Trump 44%
WISCONSIN: Biden 50%, Trump 42%
From Frederick Polls:
FLORIDA: Biden 51%, Trump 49%NORTH CAROLINA: Biden 51%, Trump 49
PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 52%, Trump 48%
China has been declared for Joe Biden!
Here's what Larry Sabato forecasts:
===== BIDEN 321 TRUMP 217 =====
And here is the map he apparently bases that on:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/sabatos-crystal-ball-2020-president
Note that here Biden
does not have FL(!), TX, OH, or IA(!).
But he does have PA(!), NC(!), GA(!!), MI, WI, MN, NV, AZ.
Yep, if this or something similar holds, it will show how narrow Trump's path to victory was.
Republican President Donald Trump has taken over the lead in Iowa as Democratic former Vice President Joe Biden has faded, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows just days before Election Day.
The president now leads by 7 percentage points over Biden, 48% to 41%. Three percent say they will vote for someone else, 2% aren't sure and 5% don't want to say for whom they will vote.
In September's Iowa Poll, the candidates were tied at 47% to 47%.
The poll of 814 likely Iowa voters was conducted by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines from Oct. 26-29. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/10/31/election-2020-iowa-poll-president-donald-trump-leads-joe-biden/6061937002/
Jimmy, that kind of rhetoric works.
It will not change any minds.
From Public Policy Polling:
IOWA: Biden 49%, Trump 48%
Taken one day ago
The people are going to save the world from the President.
He's incompetent
once again captain plagiarist, you have no fucking idea what you're talking about.
Nate Cohn of the Times calls last night’s bombshell from the Des Moines Register Trump’s single best poll of the entire campaign. I agree. If you’re starving for signs of a late break towards the incumbent, particularly in the midwest, you just got one. And not just from any ol’ pollster either. This is Ann Selzer, the most respected electoral thermometer in Iowa.
A fun fact about her: Her last poll of the state in 2016 also had Trump up seven points. He went on to win by nearly 10. En route to winning the entire election, of course.
https://hotair.com/archives/allahpundit/2020/11/01/obligatory-bout-iowa-poll-post-plus-bunch-polls/
shove your PPP poll up your nursing home-restricted ass, alky.
Pennsylvania polls 538 many likely voters
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/pennsylvania/
The average is about 5%
Both Obama and Biden will be there today
Arizona is tied
skeets hussein 0linsky.
the shit-fingered midas with no coattails in any election. if anything, he's a net-NEGATIVE.
LOL.
Insults and hot air. Lmao Jimmy Hitler is low IQ base cultist
Obama motivated the African American voters.
His speeches today in Pennsylvania will close the deal. He is the best liked ex President
Did you notice that George Bush has not endorsed the President
Charlie Cook on MSNBC said the educated suburban women are under counted by the polls, and they may elect Biden.
the polls are tightening alky.
don't get cocky.
and ask yourself why Slow Joe is headed back to PA.
Charlie Cook on MSNBC said the educated suburban women are under counted by the polls, and they may elect Biden.
ooh. they MAY?
LOL.
gee, lil charlie went like 2 inches out on that limb.
what a profile in courage.
New Battleground State Polls
6:26 am
From Monmouth:
PENNSYLVANIA:
Biden 51%, Trump 44%
From Morning Consult:
ARIZONA:
Biden 48%, Trump 46%
FLORIDA:
Biden 52%, Trump 45%
GEORGIA:
Biden 49%, Trump 46%
MICHIGAN:
Biden 52%, Trump 45%
NORTH CAROLINA:
Biden 49%, Trump 48%
OHIO:
Trump 49%, Biden 47%
PENNSYLVANIA:
Biden 52%, Trump 43%
TEXAS:
Biden 48%, Trump 48%
WISCONSIN:
Biden 54%, Trump 41%
On tomorrow night, the polls show that Biden has Florida or Texas, the President can't win even with Pennsylvania
LOL.
captain plagiarism is ON FIRE today!
and ask yourself why Slow Joe is headed back to PA.
___________
Ask yourself why Trump is frantically, desperately rushing around trying to convince so many different states.
Biden is going back to Pennsylvania he wants it.
But Jimmy, North Carolina is almost ready to go blue.
I have a feeling that Biden will get Georgia.
Both Senate seats are open. The Democrats lead, but they need a 50% victory or face a runoff in December.
Any undecideds this will break incumbent, they always have
*This late
Jimmy Hitler, why is the President in Michigan today?
He's way behind there!
Caliphate4vr said...
Any undecideds this late will break incumbent, they always have
_______
Not this time. Not with this incumbent.
In the past. But this is different.
The pandemic. Most people believe that he failed to act correctly.
Geezus. Slow Joe reciting "I don't feel no ways tired..."
https://twitter.com/m1dn7ghtrider/status/1323011601549664256
my God what a fucking embarrassment.
The pandemic. Most people believe that he failed to act correctly.
living proof that the democrat party has the 'dumb fuck' vote locked up tight.
The Top 20 Lies About Trump's Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic
The weaponizing of the COVID-19 pandemic against Donald Trump has been shameful. The media, the Democrats, and Joe Biden’s campaign don’t care about lying to the American people, they just want Trump defeated. There have been many, many falsehoods perpetuated by the media during this pandemic, and I’ve compiled the top twenty below to demonstrate just how low Trump’s enemies have gone to try to oust him.
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/matt-margolis/2020/11/02/the-top-20-lies-about-trumps-response-to-the-covid-19-pandemic-n1113413
By Weds of this week do you go full blown Biden Socialism.
Or Remain Free .
Final Polls Give Biden Big National Lead
1:02 pm
The final USC Dornsife Daybreak Poll finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump in the presidential race nationally, 53% to 43%.
The poll confirms that the presidential race “has remained stable — despite the chaotic backdrop of an election season coinciding with a global pandemic, racial unrest, continued economic uncertainty, corruption allegations and a president infected with the coronavirus.”
A new SurveyUSA national poll finds Biden up 54% to 46%.
A new Redfield & Wilton poll shows Biden ahead 53% to 41%.
A new YouGov poll finds Biden leading 53% top 43%.
Roger, no.
This is illegal in California, even in your home, on private property with only your family.
Singing.
Praying out loud
The final USC Dornsife Daybreak Poll
LOL. the WHAT???
"The final ACME Roto Rooter Earl Scheib Boys Life Magazine Poll...."
The President has said that we are turning the corner.
The WSJ
Coronavirus Live Updates: U.S. Seven-Day Average Hits New HighSome U.S. states are breaking records for new coronavirus cases and hospitalizations are ticking higher, while lockdowns in Europe are coming into force amid a surge in infections there.
Nov 2, 2020 at 8:13 am ET
What to Know
The seven-day average of new daily cases in the U.S. is now the highest the country has seen, at 81,336 cases.Texas surpassed California as the state with the highest number of confirmed cases, while Michigan reported more than 4,000 new cases.
😂six figure income🤣
23 minutes ago the President said
We have more Cases because we have more Testing!
To rrb and kputz this is great news robotics!������������������������������������������������������������
Ally, pedo and fatty could be in rubber rooms
Outcome of 2016 US election associated with poorer mental health in Clinton voters
Gates Hits Back at Wall Street Journal
1:00 pm
Former Defense secretary Bob Gates fired back at a Wall Street Journal editorial that quoted his memoir, which said Biden has been wrong about “every major foreign policy and national security issue” over the past four decades.
Said Gates in a letter to the editor:
“Fairness requires me to note for the record that those comments written in 2014 also noted that Mr. Biden was a man of genuine integrity and character. It is also worth noting that I wrote in these very pages that Donald Trump ‘is stubbornly uninformed about the world and how to lead our country and government, and temperamentally unsuited to lead our men and women in uniform. He is unqualified and unfit to be commander-in-chief.’”
Just in!
WASHINGTON — Democrat Joe Biden holds a narrow lead over President Donald Trump in the all-important battleground state of Pennsylvania, while the two candidates are tied in Arizona, according to the final NBC News/Marist state polls of the 2020 presidential election.
In Pennsylvania, which Trump won four years ago, Biden is ahead by 5 points among likely voters, 51 percent to 46 percent, although that advantage is within that poll’s margin of error; a combined 3 percent say they’re undecided or are voting for someone else.
If the turnout is a record high nationwide, we will see a historic loss for an incumbent President.
Regarding your editorial “The Biden Contradiction” (Oct. 30): Since entering public service 54 years ago, I have avoided getting involved in partisan politics. While it is certainly fair to quote my criticisms of Joe Biden’s record on national security, fairness requires me to note for the record that those comments written in 2014 also noted that Mr. Biden was a man of genuine integrity and character. It is also worth noting that I wrote in these very pages that Donald Trump “is stubbornly uninformed about the world and how to lead our country and government, and temperamentally unsuited to lead our men and women in uniform. He is unqualified and unfit to be commander-in-chief” (“Sizing Up the Next Commander-in-Chief,” op-ed, Sept. 17, 2016).
Robert M. Gates
Not polling but actual voting...
L2 Data
@L2political
Wisconsin Early Return Ballots:1,525,415 44% R / 36% D / 20% NP
A: 18-29 3% / 30-39 7% / 40-49 10% / 50-64 26% / 65+ 36%
Asian 1.6% / White 77% / Hispanic 3% / AfAm 3%
HS Diploma 21% / Bach Degree 23% / Grad Degree+ 12%
1st Time Voting/New Regs: 7.6% https://l2political.com/2020/10/16/l2s-early-absentee-voting-data-explained/
https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1322940307277754372
I thought early voting was supposed to favor dems ???
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-biden-contradiction-11604012546?st=pxfmq2ndweenz06&reflink=share_mobilewebshare
Roger Amick said...
23 minutes ago the President said
We have more Cases because we have more Testing!
So answer me this MR 97 SAT
If we tested an additional 100,000 people would he have
A) more cases
B) less cases
C) the same number of cases
This appears to be a very tough question !!!
While it is certainly fair to quote my criticisms of Joe Biden’s record on national security, fairness requires me to note for the record that those comments written in 2014
When he had 45 years of experience in public office, Biden and Obunghole’s foreign policy was a disaster.
Trump is remaking the ME without our blood and treasure
Roger, 2020 was to be your year.
Your "wishlist" included
A model as a Wife
A real House
A new A8 Audi
A Huge Bank Account
Which IF those did you actually make a reality?
While it is certainly fair to quote my criticisms of Joe Biden’s record on national security
Yep, Biden was WRONG on every major issue.
And Gates didn't retract.
Did he comment on all Trumps peace deals and winding down wars ???
Or if he knew Joe had an income stream from foreign governments through Hunter ???
When he had 45 years of experience in public office, Biden and Obunghole’s foreign policy was a disaster.
Trump is remaking the ME without our blood and treasure
no pallets of cash to iran, and at least two prominent terrorist shitstains were blown to smithereens.
and israel is breathing easier today than they have in 50 years.
while lurch said it couldn't be done.
😂So answer me this MR 97 SAT😶
Roger is a Retard.
A Biden Election does not change that fact.
Democrats are panicking because Joe Biden has not run up a large enough lead in early votes in battleground states and they know that President Trump's in-person votes on Election Day will make up the difference and propel him to victory.
Stephanie Myers
@_StephanieMyers
NEW:
The Trump campaign releases a statement on Democrat plans to delegitimize Election Day results.
STATEMENT:
https://twitter.com/_StephanieMyers/status/1323302669289627648
FACT CHECK: TRUE
but the dems still have their "polls"
Why are the Blue States boarding up their business districts?
Fearing Peaceful Protests.
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
Biden NEVER named his list of Supreme Court Justices. Never even said whether or not he was going to Pack the Court. So how do you vote for this guy?
If you want to bow to the Chinese I guess it would make sense.
Or bow to whoever they place in office in the future.
Anyone know the higher percent of early votes/mail in votes that are rejected?
from 538 Election Forecast 2020
slightly favored to win
favored to win
clearly favored to win
GA Biden slightly favored 56 in 100
TX Trump slightly favored 61 in 100
IA Trump slightly favored 61 in 100
NC Biden slightly favored 65 in 100
AZ Biden slightly favored 68 in 100
FL Biden slightly favored 69 in 100
PA Biden favored to win 85 in 100
NV Biden favored to win 87 in 100
WI Biden clearly favored 94 in 100
MI Biden clearly favored 95 in 100
MN Biden clearly favored 96 in 100
USA BIDEN favored to win election 89 in 100
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