But three of the past five polls now show Trump leading in Pennsylvania
(brings Trump within one point of 2016 polling average in decisive state)
 |
| Silver says Biden is a 2-1 underdog if he loses Pennsylvania? |
More state polling updates:
Also, since yesterday's two scenarios post four of the six states I suggested Trump was just slightly behind have now flipped to Trump being in the lead (Iowa, Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio). At the time I started writing that post Saturday afternoon, all four of those states were showing for Biden. Now they all show for Trump. Doesn't mean that last minute polling might not flip them back, just that it is just that close in many of these states.
Also, in the other Scenario, Pennsylvania would become a toss up state (under three points) and would mean that Joe Biden would actually need to win one of many toss up states to win the election, meaning that scenario would technically no longer be a matter of just margin. Just a big Biden advantage.
All that being said, Trump could win at this point by doing nothing more than winning the states he is leading in RCP averages and then overperforming close polling in three states (Florida, Arizona, and Pennsylvania). Not to mention there are still very real chances of him winning Michigan, or Wisconsin as he did in 2016.
90 comments:
rut roh reorge...
That outcome is hardly assured. But given the size and stability of Biden’s national lead, the scope of his competitiveness in key states and the staggering number of Americans who have already voted — more than 93 million as of Monday morning — it’s too late for an October surprise to be a game changer by shaking up the news cycle. Instead, the president will secure a second term only if polls are underestimating his support by far more than in 2016, when they missed by about 1 point nationally and about 4 points in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Another difference is that in YouGov’s final 2016 survey, a full 14 percent of likely voters said they were either undecided or casting their ballots for third-party candidates; many of them broke for Trump at the last minute. Today that number is down to 4 percent. With fewer persuadable voters left to persuade, Trump is still mired in the low 40s — and Biden, unlike Clinton, is above the crucial 50-percent mark. The last Democrat to claim more than 53 percent of the popular vote was Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.
As a result, the FiveThirtyEight forecast, which gave Trump a 29.1 percent chance of winning one day before the 2016 election, now gives him a 10 percent chance of winning.
Why don't you make a prediction Scott?
Slap your knee over that James
Grasping at straws
Keep watching the polls for PA:
Latest:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html
ALSO on Sabato's map
Trump could win
PA Fl OH IA
but not
NC GA MI WI MN NV AZ
and still lose
BIDEN 301 TRUMP 237
On that same map, Trump could also win NC and GA
and still lose
BIDEN 271 TRUMP 267
Roger,(aka. Mr. 97 SAT.) 2020 was to be your year.
Your "wishlist" included
A model as a Wife
A real House
A new A8 Audi
A Huge Bank Account
Which IF those did you actually make a reality?
James is projecting his emotions.
No way Biden 2ons all those states James thinks he'll win.
thebradfordfile™
@thebradfordfile
Democrats may want to accept the results of the 2016 election before having to deal with Trump's victory tomorrow.
Blogger Roger Amick said...
Grasping at straws
yes you are, alky. yes you are.
Democrats may want to accept the results of the 2016 election before having to deal with Trump's victory tomorrow.
oww.
now THAT'S gonna leave a mark.
thebradfordfile™
@thebradfordfile
China's payments to "the big guy" will end tomorrow.
===
The AG of Pennsylvania has already declared Trump the loser, in case you were wondering if Democrats are going cheat.
===
After fours years of Democrats and their puppet media screaming that Trump is a racist, Hispanic and black Americans are about to give Trump four more years.
===
The media is still telling everyone the guy with massive rallies, huge spontaneous parades, and off the charts enthusiasm will be the loser. And the guy with no crowds, no message, and no enthusiasm will be the winner.
This charade ends tomorrow.
LOL LOL LOL There are several other combinations of the above that have BIDEN winning.
IF Trump Wins, how will you deal with it?
AXIOS:
Federal Judge Rejects GOP Effort to Throw Out Ballots
3:37 pm
“A federal judge on Monday rejected a Republican request to invalidate 127,000 ballots that had already been cast via drive-through voting stations across Harris County, Texas.
“The ruling comes one day after the Texas Supreme Court denied a nearly identical effort by Republicans in Harris County.”
NEW YORK TIMES:
Why Trump Fears Losing
3:33 pm
“In unguarded moments, Mr. Trump has for weeks told advisers that he expects to face intensifying scrutiny from prosecutors if he loses. He is concerned not only about existing investigations in New York, but the potential for new federal probes as well.”
BUT WHY SHOULD HE WORRY? HE HAS DONE NOTHING CRIMINAL. HE HAS TOLD US THAT.
New York Times Will Have Three ‘Needles’
3:32 pm
New York Times: “Our three ‘needle’ battleground states will be Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, for a simple reason:
These states give us the kind of data we need to offer accurate estimates of the final vote. They report the results in unmatched detail, so our estimates might even be better than usual in these states.
“Better still, these states count their votes relatively quickly. They have experience with absentee voting, and they close their polls early in the night. Much of the vote in North Carolina and Florida is expected to be counted by 8 p.m. Eastern.”
NEW YORK TIMES:
Trump Shifts Between Combativeness and Grievance
3:28 pm
“President Trump arrives at Election Day on Tuesday toggling between confidence and exasperation, bravado and grievance, and marinating in frustration that he is trailing Joe Biden, whom he considers an unworthy opponent.
“Trailing in most polls, Mr. Trump has careened through a marathon series of rallies in the last week, trying to tear down Mr. Biden and energize his supporters, but also fixated on crowd size and targeting perceived enemies like the news media and Dr. Anthony Fauci…
“At every turn, the president has railed that the voting system is rigged against him and has threatened to sue when the election is over, in an obvious bid to undermine an electoral process strained by the coronavirus pandemic.”
Quote of the Day
2:37 pm
Under no scenario will Donald Trump be declared victor on Election Night.”
— Biden campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon, quoted by Axios.
Rasmussen Reports
@Rasmussen_Poll
Your Final Pre-Election @Rasmussen_Poll Pocket Scorecard
2020 Biden 48.0 Trump 47.0 Biden +1
2016 Clinton 48.2 Trump 46.1 Clinton +2.1
https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1323306955201515521
Looking even better than 2016 !!!
Let's see what the VOTERS decide though...
David Martosko
@dmartosko
Wow. Troll farms that hire sockpuppets in small towns in India were paid to boost Joe Biden's Twitter account beginning when he named Kamala Harris as his running mate. Tens of thousands of them following him, interacting with him. Many speak no English.
https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-kamala-harris-got-big-social-media-boost-indian-troll-farms-1544047
Foreign election interference? Just sayin'.
yep
Donald Trump Jr.
@DonaldJTrumpJr
So police say it’s the Biden staffer who is at fault in the fender bender yesterday that main stream media tried pinning on Trump supporters.
Is anyone shocked?
According to the latest forecast by FiveThirtyEight, Biden has a 90 percent chance of winning the election. "But remember, that doesn't mean there isn't still a path for Trump. Trump might be the underdog, and he needs a big polling error in his favor, but bigger polling errors have happened in the past.
"A 10 percent chance of winning, which is what our forecast gives Trump, is roughly the same as the odds that it's raining in downtown Los Angeles. And it does rain there (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day)," the website noted.
Newsweek subscription offers >
Pennsylvania could make or break the election
Recent polls have shown Biden to be leading in Pennsylvania. However, it has been a narrow lead, Silver noted Sunday.
bitterly clinging to nate silver.
how quaint.
Many speak no English.
have you listened to Joe over the past two weeks.
he doesn't speak english either.
rrb will be angry with the negro
SubscribeSign In
Amy Coney Barrett takes oath as a Supreme Court justice
Supreme Court throws out First Amendment ruling against Black Lives Matter activist DeRay Mckesson
RICHARD WOLF | USA TODAY | 6 hours ago
Amy Coney Barrett is pledging to carry out her duties as a Supreme Court justice “without any fear or favor” toward government or her own beliefs. Barrett spoke after taking the first of two oaths that will allow her to join the high court. (Oct. 26)
AP
WASHINGTON – The Black Lives Matter movement got a favorable ruling Monday from the Supreme Court.
All you see are the fake videos
Any bets on whether the shooter in Vienna, that hit a synagogue 30 minutes ago, has a version Mo in his name?
Blogger Roger Amick said...
rrb will be angry with the negro
"negro" alky?
really?
Any bets on whether the shooter in Vienna, that hit a synagogue 30 minutes ago, has a version Mo in his name?
i never bet against it being a moose-limb.
which fake video's are you referring to alky?
the 'fake video' of 57,000 people in Butler PA?
Trump LIVE from Michigan:
https://youtu.be/oW_TZJAv3Q8
Cool
Any bets on whether the shooter in Vienna, that hit a synagogue 30 minutes ago, has a version Mo in his name?"
99.99 % the terrorist is a rag head.
"which fake video's are you referring to alky?"
Come on Mr. 97 SAT.
The US Constitution come first.
"WASHINGTON – The Black Lives Matter movement got a favorable ruling Monday from the Supreme Court."
This is Trump Court.
The Supreme court went against Trump
992
Roger, you are a simpleton.
"which fake video's are you referring to alky?"
Come on Mr. 97 SAT.
WASHINGTON – The Black Lives Matter movement got a favorable ruling Monday from the Supreme Court.
The justices tossed out a federal appeals court decision that allowed a Black Lives Matter protest organizer to be sued by a police officer injured by an unknown assailant.
The 2016 incident in Baton Rouge, La., followed the shooting death of Alton Sterling by a white police officer, which triggered weeks of protests across the U.S.
The officer, identified as John Doe, was struck in the face by a rock. He sued DeRay Mckesson, a Black Lives Matter activist, on the theory that he “knew or should have known … that violence would result.”
The officer, who suffered injuries to his brain, jaw and teeth, also sued Black Lives Matter. That was tossed out on the theory that BLM is a social movement and cannot be sued.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/02/black-lives-matter-supreme-court-throws-out-case-against-activist/5888878002/
dee-ray is a piece of shit.
it would be a shame if anything were to happen to him.
dee-ray is a piece of shit.
So are you and trump......bWAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
ALSO on Sabato's map
Trump could win
PA Fl OH IA
but not
NC GA MI WI MN NV AZ
Sabato already has Trump winning Ohio, Florida, and Iowa.
Meanwhile Trump is literally leading in the RCP polling averages in North Carolina and Georgia and down 0.5% in Arizona?
Sabato is saying he cannot win those states?
Because if he just wins those, he is at 259 ECV and is a Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, or Michigan away from another four years.
Bingo
Between the stupid biden lady gaga commercial and Biden saying he'll kill fracking ( which he's now denying). PA will go Trump, unless the gov and AG start playing games with the vote counting.
In Arizona, the coronavirus raged.
With masks and other measures, it subsided.
What can THAT teach America?
As temperatures in Arizona shot toward their summer peaks, so did the state’s coronavirus crisis.
Lines for drive-up testing snaked for blocks in June.
Hospitals were running out of beds,
bodies were being stored in coolers,
and the state’s per capita caseload topped global charts.
But by mid-August, the Southwest hot spot made a remarkable reversal.
Cases plummeted 75 percent.
Arizona has maintained relatively low case numbers since, but they are now creeping to levels seen just a few weeks before its summer surge. And as a conflagration engulfs the Midwest and Mountain West, public health experts and elected officials in Arizona are pleading with residents to maintain mitigation measures they say played a critical role in beating back the virus and hold lessons for other states — including mask mandates that covered 85 percent of the population.
“The mask ordinances should stay in place until we get pretty wide distribution of the vaccine,” said Will Humble, a former state health department director who now leads the Arizona Public Health Association.
“The return on investment is off the charts. The only thing that it costs is political capital.”
That emphasis on face coverings echoes intensifying calls by public health experts nationwide amid growing evidence of masks’ effectiveness in reducing transmission — and signs that a pandemic-weary population and battered economy may not tolerate widespread shutdowns.
Deborah Birx, coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force, has been touring states and chiding those where mask use is low. Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden and former Food and Drug Administration commissioner Scott Gottlieb have advocated for a national mask mandate. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has also urged mandates, recently calling mask-wearing and social distancing simple measures that may be “the next best thing” to shutdowns that are unlikely to be repeated.
Some local governments in hard-hit red states where masks have been especially contentious are heeding the call. In recent days, mandates were passed in Coeur d’Alene, Idaho, and the North Dakota cities of Bismarck and Grand Forks.
In Arizona, some jurisdictions are lifting mask mandates, fraying nerves among some observers who say such loosening is premature.
“I’m becoming more of a firm believer that face masks are a truly effective intervention in this particular outbreak and should be considered our first line of defense,” said Joe K. Gerald, a University of Arizona public health researcher who tracks coronavirus trends in the state. Places without them, he said, are “shooting themselves in the foot because wearing face masks can protect individuals but also reduce the spread to others and allow more economic activity and social activity.”
The ball less idiot posted
Between the stupid biden lady gaga commercial and Biden saying he'll kill fracking
HE NEVER SAID HE WOULD KILL FRACKING YOU FUCKING LOSING JAG OFF!!!!! BTW.....Trump could lose NC IA TX and Fl!!!!!!!
Trafalgar has Trump leading in MI, PA and NC. They were named best polling firm in 2016.
CNN Reported Joe Biden said about fracking.
"Biden said "we would make sure it's eliminated"
CNN’s Bash: “Would there be any place for fossil fuels including coal and fracking in a Biden administration?” Biden: “No, we would we would work it out. We would make sure it's eliminated.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/02/final-election-forecast-biden-trump-senate-433804
The Democratic party and the President of the Democratic party are favored.
I find it amusing that you don't trust polls that favor Biden.
You cherry pick the polls that give Trump and Putin a victory!
Wanna bet on Trump wins Minnesota??
$100 .
Lmao you are nuts.
The Wall Street Journal reports that the October surprise didn't happen so they said that the President can't win. The blue wall is intact. PA, WI MI.
WASHINGTON—Support for President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden in a group of battleground states has remained unchanged in recent days, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, finding little evidence of the kind of last-minute shift toward Mr. Trump that helped him win four years ago.
The poll, conducted on Sunday in 12 states in which the election is most competitive, finds Mr. Biden leading, 51% to 46%, essentially unchanged from a survey late last week.
The new survey underscored an important difference between Mr. Trump’s first campaign for the White House and his re-election fight this year. After watching Mr. Trump for four years, voter opinions of the president have been set for months, and the race appears to have little of the late volatility that marked the 2016 election.
The halfbaked pundit was correct!
Biden is going to win the election.
The gotcha is the most dangerous President ever. He will try to steal the election tomorrow night, but the country will survive the Presidentcy of The Horror Story nightmare.
from 538 Election Forecast 2020
slightly favored to win
favored to win
clearly favored to win
GA Biden slightly favored 56 in 100
TX Trump slightly favored 61 in 100
IA Trump slightly favored 61 in 100
NC Biden slightly favored 65 in 100
AZ Biden slightly favored 68 in 100
FL Biden slightly favored 69 in 100
PA Biden favored to win 85 in 100
NV Biden favored to win 87 in 100
WI Biden clearly favored 94 in 100
MI BIDEN clearly favored 95 in 100
MN Biden clearly favored 96 in 100
Biden favored to win election 89 in 100
No way.
Wanna bet on Trump wins Minnesota??
$100 .
No. Gambling is for the foolish. That's why I'm so well off and you are not.
You would have lost the bet.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/swing-state-poll-finds-no-late-shift-in-presidential-race-11604329351?st=e4so3lpfshho5ab&reflink=share_mobilewebshare
Roger, look at where you where 4 years ago in your personal life and today.
small mindedness
Impeached Trump is spending the day before Election Day insulting Lady Gaga, Lebron James, and Jon Bon Jovi. ����♀️
Six years ago I was in a coma. I had a 20% chance of coming out of the coma. Ammonia poisoning.
The doctors at Kaiser Permanente West Los Angeles saved my life.
Glad to have you still with us, Roger.
Final Polls Show Biden with Commanding Lead
8:30 pm
Nate Cohn:
“The final polls more or less comport with how we already viewed the race. Mr. Biden ends the race up by more than eight points nationwide — the largest lead a candidate has held in the final polls since Bill Clinton in 1996. He’s up by at least five points in states worth more than 270 electoral votes, the number needed to win. Beyond that, he’s got at least a nominal lead in states worth 350 electoral votes, and he’s just a 2012 polling error away from a sweeping landslide of more than 400 electoral votes.”
Birx Pleads for ‘Aggressive Action’ Against Virus
8:13 pm
“A top White House coronavirus adviser sounded alarms Monday about a new and deadly phase in the health crisis, pleading with top administration officials for ‘much more aggressive action,’ even as President Trump continues to assure rallygoers the nation is ’rounding the turn’ on the pandemic.
Said Dr. Deborah Birx:
“We are entering the most concerning and most deadly phase of this pandemic … leading to increasing mortality. This is not about lockdowns — It hasn’t been about lockdowns since March or April. It’s about an aggressive balanced approach that is not being implemented.”
Biden Narrowly Leads In Six Swing States
7:46 pm
A new CNBC/Change Research poll across six swing states finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump,
50% to 46%.
Biden also leads in each of the swing states
ARIZONA: Biden 50%, Trump 47%
FLORIDA: Biden 51%, Trump 48%
MICHIGAN: Biden 51%, Trump 44%
NORTH CAROLINA: Biden 49%, Trump 47%
PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 50%, Trump 46%
WISCONSIN: Biden 53%, Trump 45%
Roger, nice attempted dodge, no one asked about 6 years ago.
4 was the question, God you are an insufferable little man.
So, 4 years ago to today, wife?, house ?, Car?, Deoression?, suicidal thoughts?, homelessness?
James, Politico has some information
Florida (29 electoral votes):
FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +2.5
FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Clinton +0.6
2016 result: Trump +1.2
Biden enters the election about 2 points stronger than Clinton was in 2016, when Trump emerged with a 1-point victory.
The final live-caller poll, from Quinnipiac University, showed Biden ahead by 5 points — though Quinnipiac overestimated Democrats in the state in the 2018 midterms.
Georgia (16 electoral votes):
FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +1
FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Trump +4
2016 result: Trump +5.1
Georgia has raced away from Trump in the polls: He led by 4 points on the eve of the 2016 election and won by 5 — the rare state where Trump didn’t overperform significantly on Election Day.
He and Biden are neck-and-neck now, with the Democrat a point ahead in the FiveThirtyEight average.
Iowa (6 electoral votes):
FiveThirtyEight average: Trump +1.4
FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Trump +2.9
2016 result: Trump +9.4
The most promising news for Trump in the polls in the 72 hours before the election came from Iowa, where a Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll showed the president ahead by 7 points.
That’s out of line with the average, which showed a closer race. But the Register’s final poll was also better for Trump than the average in 2016 — and it was right.
If a Trumpet tries to intimidate you call 911 or Our Election Protection 866-OUR-VOTE (866-687-8683) hotline is proving live support now
Take 5 minutes and connect with our team to register, check your registration status, get help with absentee/early voting info and more
#NationalVoterRegistrationDay
https://t.co/TUDGiq74XV
Charlie Cook
October 30, 2020
Much of the thinking about the outcome of next Tuesday’s election has been binary: Does Joe Biden hang onto his lead in the polls and win, or can President Trump mount a successful comeback, threading the same needle that enabled him to win 30 states with 306 Electoral College votes last time? Another binary question: Will Republicans keep their Senate losses down to just a seat or two, remaining at 51 or 52 seats, or will Democrats score a net gain of three or four seats, emerging with the barest of majorities?
But it is hard to look closely at the presidential election and not see that, given how little time is left, the odds of a big Biden win are higher than those of a Trump come-from-behind victory. Which brings us to the growing body of evidence on the congressional-district and statewide level showing that Trump’s political problems are metastasizing and having a strong drag on down-ballot Republicans. That extends from the Senate to the House and even down to the state-legislative level, with serious congressional and legislative redistricting implications. A party never wants to have a bad election, but a big loss in a year ending in a zero is the defeat that keeps on defeating, as Democrats painfully learned after their massive 2010 losses, which reverberated for the rest of the decade.
It increasingly looks like a foregone conclusion that the GOP Senate majority is soon to be history. Nine Republican seats are in grave danger, starting with those of Sens. Martha McSally (Arizona), Cory Gardner (Colorado), and Thom Tillis (North Carolina), the real underdogs. They’re followed by Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Steve Daines (Montana), Lindsey Graham (South Carolina), and both Georgia seats, all of which are at best even-money races. There is still an open seat in Kansas that is very close, and Sen. Dan Sullivan has a narrow lead in Alaska. Anyone who was around for Election Night 1980, when Democrats lost their first Senate seat, that of Birch Bayh (Indiana), at 6:30 p.m., then basically lost a Senate seat every 30 minutes for the next six hours, can understand the cascading effect that can occur under certain conditions.
Many Republicans believe (and many Democrats fear) that Trump will again pull a victory from the jaws of defeat—that he possesses some mystical political power. This ignores an alternative theory: that the 2016 election outcome was as much about Hillary Clinton as it was about Trump, and that Democrats nominating someone whose favorable-unfavorable ratings are not underwater is by itself yielding a different outcome.
My guess is that Trump supporters will look back wistfully at six assumptions that gave them hope, only to turn out to be faulty. The first was that the economic boom, which from September 2019 through February of this year gave the U.S. six consecutive months of 50-year-low unemployment, would continue and power the president through to reelection.
The second was that Democrats would nominate either Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren. The third was that the coronavirus would turn out to be less serious than some had warned, or that it would be brought under control with a surging economy by the third quarter, which would propel the president to victory.
The fourth was that the Trump campaign’s decision to build a large field operation would allow it to identify and mobilize Trump supporters in battleground states who looked, acted, talked, and believed the same as those who gave him his victories in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin four years ago.
It was a sound decision, but it was based on a fifth assumption: that fundraising would continue to surge. Instead, it slumped in the latter half of the summer after the president's poll numbers took such a beating in June and July. The money was gone, with insufficient new funds coming in to provide the air cover that the ground game needed.
According to Federal Election Commission reports covering until the end of September, the Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee had $61 million in cash on hand, while the Biden campaign and the Democratic National Committee had $177 million. On Friday, Advertising Analytics reported the Biden campaign had aired $576 million in television advertising, compared to $341 million for the Trump campaign. Did anyone ever think they would see a Republican president outraised and outgunned by a Democratic challenger whose campaign hardly had two quarters to rub together just seven months ago? That is a sign that something was terribly amiss.
The last erroneous assumption was that Biden was senile or had dementia and the debates would expose it for all the world to see. Anyone who covered Biden trooping around Iowa, or who watched the Democratic debates or his convention acceptance speech, could have told them that while he often goes off script, it was nothing new. I would chalk it up to wishful thinking.
This election is going to a very different place than many expected, and it may turn out for Republicans to be even worse than they fear.
One hundred-odd Zoom meetings, webinars, and conference call speeches that I’ve participated in over the past two months, virtual attendees continue to raise the possibility of a contested presidential election, even though the chances of that have been getting smaller all the time. Every day that Trump remains behind in the polls, outspent badly and with the early vote gushing in, the cone of uncertainty narrows, and the odds of such an upset goes down.
Joe Biden’s path to 270 electoral votes seems pretty straightforward: Hold all 20 states (plus the District of Columbia) that Hillary Clinton carried four years ago, which total 232 electoral votes, just 38 short of the majority threshold of 270. Then win each of the three states that Clinton lost by eight-tenths of a point or less: Michigan (0.2 percentage points) Pennsylvania (0.7), and Wisconsin (0.8). That gives him 278 electoral votes, eight more than needed. Biden will likely also carry two congressional districts that eluded Clinton in 2016, Nebraska’s 2nd District and Maine’s 2nd, giving him 280 electoral votes. That would represent a “skinny” Biden win.
A big Biden win would bring in Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina, and might also include one or two states from the next tier, mostly likely Georgia or Iowa, although don’t count out Ohio or Texas. Generally speaking, Trump is underperforming his 2016 pace by 3 to 8 points, depending upon the state or district.
The RealClearPolitics average of national polls pegs Biden’s lead at 7.4 points, 51.1 to 43.7 percent. But that’s a less discriminating measure, including as it does some mediocre surveys, some that seemed congenitally slanted toward one side or the other, and some that would be better utilized lining hamster cages. The FiveThirtyEight modeled average of national polls, which is more selective than the RCP average but still includes some surveys that I consider rather sketchy, puts the Biden lead at 8.8 points, 52 to 43.2 percent.
I believe his actual lead is more like 9 or 10 points, based on the higher-quality, live-telephone-interview national polls conducted since the first debate, as well as the gold standard of online polling, the Pew Research Center’s mammoth poll of 11,929 voters released two weeks ago.
Any way you slice it, these are pretty good leads, considerably higher than the 3.2-point national margin that Hillary Clinton had over Trump in the RCP average on Oct. 29, 2016. When all the votes were counted, the margin ended up being 2.1 percent.
In fact, one of the stories of this election is how Democrats have opened their checking accounts to candidates and causes this year. As reported by Advertising Analytics on Wednesday, the Biden campaign has bought $626 million in TV time, $268 million more than Trump’s $358 million by the Trump effort.
All told, Advertising Analytics reported that political campaigns and causes dropped $8.12 billion in TV ads so far this cycle— $4.633 billion by Democrats on all levels, $2.606 million by Republicans, and $907 million by independents. Of the $2.948 billion spent on television by presidential campaigns, $2.163 billion came for Democratic candidates to $780 million for Republicans. Senate candidates spent $2 billion, $1.130 million spent by or for Democrats and $870 million by or for Republicans. Of the $1.105 billion spent on House advertising, the split was $649 million on the Democratic side, $500 million for Republicans.
Democratic donors have bucked recent trends to deliver a substantial spending advantage for their side, voting with their wallets long before anyone voted with a ballot. Democrats have had their hair on fire since Election Night 2016 and that has shown no sign of abating. In my judgement, a landslide is more likely than a contested election.
The House looks likely to see Republicans lose a few more seats on top of the 40 they dropped in 2018. If the over/under is 10 seats, I tend to come down on the higher side.
The Senate is increasingly less a case of whether Democrats will take a majority, but how large will it be. The chances of the GOP keeping its losses down to a seat or two are dropping; I am thinking that a five- or six-seat gain is becoming highly possible. The three most likely GOP incumbents to lose are Martha McSally in Arizona, Cory Gardner in Colorado, and Thom Tillis in North Carolina. Right on the bubble are Joni Ernst in Iowa, Susan Collins in Maine, and both Georgia seats. A touch back from that are Steve Daines in Montana and Lindsey Graham in South Carolina, as well as the open seat in Kansas. All three states are likely to be won by Trump, so look for a possible repeat of 2016, when every Senate race went to the same party that won the presidential race there—the first time that had happened since the start of direct Senate elections in 1914.
What I am wondering is if this will be one or the rarest species of national elections—a wave election in a presidential year ending in a zero, meaning it will reverberate for a decade thanks to the coming redistricting. There are not a dozen Republican Senate seats that could fall, as Democrats suffered in 1980, but Joe Biden may well replicate Ronald Reagan’s 10-point victory over President Carter. The odds are it will be a bit less, perhaps in the 53 to 44 percent range, with 3 percent going to independents and write-ins, half of the number from four years ago.
We’ll soon know. It won’t be long now.
We love the President because he will save us from the Democratic radical left!
Liberals despise you and think that people like you are “deplorables.”
Democrats are trying to steal the election. They are ruthless and care about nothing but power.
Joe Biden and his son Hunter are both corrupt and everyone knows it, but the media is conspiring to keep it under wraps.
Biden is basically senile. If he wins, he’ll be a pawn of AOC and the extreme left wing of the Democratic Party.
Democrats encouraged Black rioters throughout the summer as a way of making Donald Trump look bad.
Democrats will raise your taxes and use it to buy health insurance for . . . the urban poor.
Democrats smeared Brett Kavanaugh to assuage their extremist base, slandering a decent man who did nothing wrong. They did the same thing to Robert Bork and Clarence Thomas.
Democrats will take your guns away.
Maybe climate change is real, but Democrats are just hyping it because it’s a useful facade to promote their agenda of economy-killing regulation.
Democrats think rural white people are all racists.
If Biden wins, he’ll tear down the wall and welcome hordes of poor Mexican and Latin Americans into the United States.
Democrats have been cynically politicizing the coronavirus solely to make Trump look bad.
Donald Trump stands up for America. Democrats will cave in to threats from China, Iran, Russia, and other countries.
Democrats will ruin the economy. They always do.
Named after a battle in the Napoleonic Wars when the British navy turned back French and Spanish ships on the high seas, Trafalgar, which he runs alone, has been doing surveys on behalf of clients since 2006.
Most of Trafalgar’s polling is done for conservative and Republican clients, although — in another snub of traditional standards — it has not reliably revealed when surveys are paid for by partisan interests.
In 2010, Mr. Cahaly was arrested and taken to court for violating a law against using automatic calling machines — known as robocalling — to conduct polls. The charges against him were eventually dropped, and he later successfully sued a state law enforcement agency, causing South Carolina’s prohibition on robocalls to be declared unconstitutional.
Mr. Cahaly said he was doing legitimate polling, aimed at truly understanding voters’ opinions — and getting what he called “dead-on” results. During the 2016 Republican primaries, he was early to spot a surge of enthusiasm from many working-class voters who had long felt alienated from politics and helped power Mr. Trump’s ascent.
Image
President Trump during a campaign rally at the Miami-Opa Locka Executive Airport on Sunday.Credit...Doug Mills/The New York Times
“I kept getting these stories about people who showed up to vote and didn’t know how to use the voting machines, they hadn’t voted in so long,” Mr. Cahaly said. So he began to look into who those people might be, and used data available online to create a list of roughly 50 lifestyle characteristics — including, for instance, whether they owned a fishing license — to identify the sorts of low-engagement voters who were turning out in droves. He used that data to make sure he was reaching the right kinds of respondents as he polled off the voter file in advance of the general election.
In 2018, Mr. Cahaly again amassed a successful track record polling Senate and governors’ races, including surveys that correctly presaged Ron DeSantis’s and Rick Scott’s wins in Florida.
This year, he has continued to see strong Trump support among these voters, and he believes other pollsters are again underestimating their importance. Among Mr. Cahaly’s theories is that it takes five times as many calls to get a conservative voter to complete a poll than to get a liberal one. Others in the field say they find no evidence to support this in their own work.
But Mr. Cahaly insists it is presumptuous for pollsters to assume that they are drawing a representative sample of voters just because they are adhering to the scientific method. He returns to the country’s political divide, and how unwilling Americans are nowadays to communicate with each other from across the breach of suspicion. In a sense, he has positioned himself as a bard of Trumpism, giving voice to a silent majority — or at least, a majority in the Electoral College — that knows the elites consider its views deplorable, and therefore won’t express them freely to just anyone.
“Lee Atwater drilled into everyone around me that you have to get out of the head of politicos and into the head of Joe Six-Pack,” Mr. Cahaly said. “What do the average people think? And to do that I like to talk to average people. I like to follow up polling calls and chat with people for 30 minutes.”
Mr. Cahaly feels no need to reveal his techniques, despite the near-universal doubt about his work from his peers
If we get the results from Florida, showing Biden is winning the Presidency, I have to wonder if the President will still proclaim victory. The truthers will cheer for him.
Twitter blocked the President who was inciting violence.
The Supreme Court decision on voting in Pennsylvania is a VERY dangerous one. It will allow rampant and unchecked cheating and will undermine our entire systems of laws. It will also induce violence in the streets. Something must be done!
Biden up 5-0 in dixvillie notch NH.....first official count in the country!!!!!!
What is your prediction?
Mine is ............
Biden 305
trump 233
Biden wins by 15 million + 3 #316....trump slithers away!!!!!!!!! 316 biden flips Tx
Texas and Arizona will flip
FANTASTIC ELECTION DAY MORNING !!!
Great 4-munute monologue about todays election before it even happens.
Tucker Carlson
@TuckerCarlson
thebradfordfile™
@thebradfordfile
Tucker is an American hero.
Tucker Carlson truly deserves the presidential medal of freedom.
I suspect he may win one.
Without him and a few other still moral journalists our nation would likely have been lost.
VOTE like our nation depends on it.
It does.
ACTUAL VIDEO:
https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1323442799673593856
Francis Brennan
@FrancisBrennan
Today, Joe Biden said, "I work for Lady Gaga."
Back in March Biden told a Detroit autoworker that he doesn't work for him.
This makes sense. Biden spent 47 years stabbing American workers in the back.
Biden would be a president for the elite, NOT the American worker.
Fantastic energy on the right.
A once-in-a-lifetime experience.
New statues will be erected.
And history is being made.
jmo
Scott Adams
@ScottAdamsSays
If stocks are up today, it won't be because the smartest investors on Wall Street expect their taxes to increase.
It's been up for the last few days... (and months)
Unlike the crash when Obama became the favorite.
Joe Biden
"He knows theonlywayhekanbeatoffusisto
Just voted, heavy in person vote. Mostly people in their 30's and 40's. Red pens are being cleaned out, the Blue pens for voting go wanting.
This 214 Alumni Vote Trump.
thebradfordfile™
@thebradfordfile
Tucker is an American hero.
BWAAAAAAAAAA!!!!! Tucker is an american scum sucking asshole!!!!!!!!
Follow the money!!!!!!
Yahoo Finance
Election 2020: Betting markets see Trump losing as battlegrounds shift toward Biden
Javier E. David
Javier E. David·Editor focused on markets and the economy
Mon, November 2, 2020, 1:31 PM EST
Predictive markets overwhelmingly favor Democrat Joe Biden to emerge victorious in Tuesday’s general election, even as President Donald Trump narrows the polling gap in key competitive states, with his chances bolstered by diehard investors.
During a volatile race in which oddsmakers have plowed over $1 billion into speculating on the eventual winner of the Oval Office, betting markets continue to give the former vice president the inside track, while Trump’s chances of being reelected appear less probable.
Smarkets investors give Biden a nearly 2-in-3 chance (65%) to be inaugurated, while a Real Clear Politics average shows similar odds, reflecting the former VP’s formidable lead in public opinion polls.
HAPPY ELECTION DAY!
MORNING DAWNS ACROSS AMERICA
FIRST READ:
Three Scenarios for Election Night
9:15 am EST
First Read sees three scenarios for tonight:
Scenario #1: The national polls are correct (Biden is ahead 8-10 points), and we’ll find out a winner tonight.
Scenario #2: Biden is able to win one of Florida, Georgia or North Carolina — and he’s the clear favorite to win — but it takes a day or two to call enough states to get him to 270-plus.
Scenario #3: Trump’s numbers are better than the national polls suggest, and we’re in for a long, hard slog to see who wins Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Key takeaway: “But under none of those scenarios does Trump have the ability to wrap it up early.”
The Final Consensus Electoral Map
8:25 am
The final electoral map of the 2020 presidential election — the consensus found by averaging the top forecasts — shows Joe Biden with 291 electoral votes, Donald Trump with 125 and another 122 across six states rated as Toss Ups.
Other forecasts:
FiveThirtyEight gives Biden a 89% chance to win.
Economist gives Biden a 97% chance to win.
AXIOS:
Beware of the ‘Red Mirage’ Tonight
7:40 am
“The Democratic firm that predicted an election-night ‘red mirage’ for President Trump — an early lead it says that Joe Biden will overtake when mail-in ballots are counted — is standing by its prediction, but with a smaller mirage than expected.
“Updated modeling from analytics firm Hawkfish says Trump may look as if he’s on track to cross 270 electoral votes and approach a 286-252 victory. But in the end, it predicts, Biden could win by as much as 334-204, or a more modest 279-259, once all mail-in ballots are counted.”
DAILY BEAST
Trump Jokes About Running Again If He Loses
7:37 am
President Trump has privately signaled that he has no desire to leave the stage quietly in defeat, the Daily Beast reports.
“The president has talked with aides about potentially continuing rallies after the election… He has recently joked with others about running again in 2024 in the event he is a one-termer, and also to see media, Democrats, and RINO heads explode.”
“Even absent another presidential run, his top congressional and political allies and family members seem poised to inherit the movement that he has birthed.”
Quote of the Day
6:33 am
“This isn’t about — yeah, it is about me, I guess, when you think about it.”
— President Trump, quoted by the Associated Press.
AND THAT'S YOUR PROBLEM, MR. PRESIDENT.
PLAYBOOK:
Overwhelmed By Events
6:31 am
“Nothing has broken through in the campaign besides his handling of the coronavirus.
Not the trade deal he cut,
not the regulations he has rolled back
and not the tax legislation he squeezed through Congress, which turned out to be his only major legislative achievement.
It’s basically been all about Covid-19.
“The ultimate question is:
Do voters believe that the situation truly is cosmic and out of his control,
or is it at least partially of his making?
“One-term presidents typically get overwhelmed by events.
George H.W. Bush had a sagging economy.
Jimmy Carter had the hostage crisis in Iran, a lackluster economy and the sense that the U.S. was out of control and on a bad track.
Lyndon Baines Johnson had Vietnam.
Will Trump join that group?”
AXIOS:
Biden’s Plan to Assert Control
6:19 am
“If news organizations declare Joe Biden the mathematical president-elect, he plans to address the nation as its new leader, even if President Trump continues to fight in court.
“Biden advisers learned the lesson of 2000, when Al Gore hung back while George W. Bush declared victory in that contested election, putting the Democrat on the defensive while Bush acted like the winner.
“So if Biden is declared the winner, he’ll begin forming his government and looking presidential — and won’t yield to doubts Trump might try to sow.”
James, can you not spam today.
Just post your own thoughts in your own words.
Hey goat fucker....SHut the fuck up!!!!!!! The only words you post are BS and lies......BWAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!
KansasDemocrat said...
James, can you not spam today.
Just post your own thoughts in your own words.
Won't happen.
Expect the BUTT BUDDIES to be screaming like rabid banshees by tonight.
or trying to burn our country down.
Apologies to readers who may not enjoy having the f word thrown in their faces with every post, but F-Daddy has no class.
The slain gunman was an ISIS ‘sympathizer,’ an official says.
A terrorist attack in central Vienna on Monday night left at least four people dead and many others wounded, including a police officer, government officials said.
One gunman was killed by the police. Austria’s interior minister, Karl Nehammer, called that gunman an Islamic State “sympathizer” at a Tuesday morning news conference. He did not reveal the man’s name, but he said the police had searched his apartment.
NYT
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