If Trump is able to take both Florida and North Carolina (along with Georgia which has similar polling to Florida), then you can begin to see how Trump could pull it off. He would need to win in Arizona and Pennsylvania. Is that possible? Yes. Will it be easy? No.
Let's start with Arizona. Biden had a 6 point advantage in a New York Times/Siena College poll put out on Sunday. CNN/SSRS had Biden at 50% and Trump at 46% on Saturday. The average poll overall has Biden up by 4 points. So Trump needs a larger than average polling error in a state where there hasn't been a tradition of polling errors favoring Republicans.
If Trump is able to overcome that, he'll still need to go into Pennsylvania and win there. (There's a reason Trump has been barnstorming the state.)
Three polls out this weekend show similar results in the Keystone State. Biden was up 5 points in a Muhlenberg College poll (well within the poll's 5.5 point margin of error), 6 points in a New York Times/Siena College poll and 7 points in an ABC News/Washington Post poll.
Overcoming an average 6 point polling deficit is possible. It's quite hard though. It's basically a little less than the chance of flipping a coin in the air three times and having it land on heads all three times.
First, this has to scare the Biden camp to see someone like Enton almost concede that Trump will win enough states elsewhere to make this about Arizona and Pennsylvania and that these states (where Biden has held consistent leads) could still go for Trump.
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| Biden +1.2% vs Clinton +1.9% - click to enlarge |
But I have to say I agree with Enton. This might just come down to Arizona and Pennsylvania. That being said, much of the tone of this piece by Enton (who is a mainstay at 538) reflects the difference between how RCP and 538 looks at a polling averages.
In the RCP average, Arizona is coin flip with Biden holding a 0.9% lead, and trending fast towards Trump. But in the 538 world, Joe Biden has a 4% lead. That's a significant difference in how you calculate a polling average. Same holds true for Pennsylvania, where Enton is citing media polls from last week, while seemingly ignoring the three polls that came out over the weekend showing Trump with an advantage. 538 is showing a six point polling advantage for Biden in Pennsylvania, while RCP now shows it at 1.2%.
The biggest difference here is that 538 hangs on to older polls longer than RCP does, they weigh certain polls to have a larger influence than other polls, and they do an "adjustment" to polls to reflect whatever bias they believe that there might be.
Now to be clear, I believe that Arizona is closer to that toss up range vs that 4 point Biden lead that 538 has. But I am not so convinced that RCP removing polls from late last week is a wise move in Pennsylvania. Yeah, they have decent amount of polling over the past five days to work with, but I believe that those media polls from the middle of last week are still a valid consideration. In those regards I am much more likely to question how RCP is calculating Pennsylvania at what now appears to be almost a coinflip (like Arizona). That being said, RCP is attempting to be consistent with what they did in 2016. So for those comparisons it makes sense.
On the flip side, I also think it's wrong to suggest that Biden is working with a six point cushion in Pennsylvania. I do believe that last minute polling is still important (especially in a state which will vote largely on election day). While not convinced that Trump has pulled even in Pennsylvania (polling-wise) I also believe that Pennsylvania is in play (which it wouldn't be if Biden really had a six point lead).
Either way, Trump will need to probably win both Arizona and Pennsylvania to get to 269 (depending on how Nebraska and Maine turn out in their split district electoral college vote allocation). If Trump wins both of those extra districts, he might not need Arizona if he wins Pennsylvania. But something tells me that if it comes down to Trump winning Pennsylvania, that Arizona on other close states are dropping for him as well.
17 comments:
Prepare to be shocked.
I think polls will need to be completely redone.
BWTFDIK.
Besides the low response rate (6% I've read) there needs to be an adjustment for enthusiasm.
Some people will just stay home or not return ballots and some will not miss voting for anything. I think dramatically favors Trump.
Of course fraud and legal maneuvering well help Biden. Extending the elections give fraudsters a target to hit to overturn an election.
Until it reaches the Supreme Court, if necessary.
Let's hope the libs keep control over their "peaceful protestors"
I'm leaning towards Biden in Pennsylvania. Charlie Cook convinced me that Biden will win a significantly larger popular vote than Hillary Clinton.
Florida????.
But Biden will flip North Carolina, Arizona and Texas. Georgia??? But the two Senator seats will go into a runoff, that will flip the Senate.
The huge turnout favors the Democrats.
If I'm right, we will see a historic sea change.
But the two Senator seats will go into a runoff
Don’t talk shit you know nothing about. The Loefler seat will be a runoff, Perdue no unless a lot of Libertarians voted
All you have is anger
Pennsylvania average 5.7% Biden
Nate Cohn tweets that Real Clear Politics polling averages have favored Trump too much.
Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
2h
"One small casualty of this election: the RealClearPolitics average. It's never been perfect, but I've cited it in the past as a simple no-questions-asked average. Unfortunately, that's not possible anymore.
"RCP's averages this cycle just haven't been a fair average of the polling that's out there. Instead, cut offs are fairly deliberately set to show better results for Trump.
"This has been true for a while now, but they really took it up a couple of notches over the weekend. And unfortunately it’s enough that I won’t be using the site anymore for citing polling averages.”
_____________
James says,
WOW. I've been assuming that RCP averages were objective. But if Cohn has it right, things look even grimmer for Trump than RCP polling has indicated.
Interesting.
What do you say, polling expert Ch?
It’s not my fault you don’t know what you are talking about. And if the libertarian does cause a runoff the LP will endorse Perdue, just like when Wyche Fowler got beat by Coverdale
Don’t talk shit you know nothing about.
in this particular area the alky is in his fucking glory today.
the dumb fuck is locked down in a nursing home, yet he'll proceed to have an opinion on every race in the nation, informed by exactly... nothing.
What do you say, polling expert Ch?
Did you actually read my post?
I specifically address this...
Besides that only one of the senators candidates in Georgia may face a runoff is irrelevant. Both seats will elect Democrats in what used to be a solid red state, could help the Democrats get a majority in the Senate.
The polls show Biden has a chance, and since the demographics are changing, he's got a 50 50 chance.
No enthusiasm for the donks here, Alky. 4 voters 50 machines last Tuesday and it doesn’t get any bluer than my area. 4 miles from Emory
Some of the things I've seen on the news coverage is the "silent minority" in the Republican party, where people who don't like the President, are remaining quiet because they don't want to get backlash anger among the President's devoted followers.
They might be a crack in the red wall.
A new statistic on NBC, 95% of the number of people who voted in the last election have already voted!
That could mean that every poll is in doubt.
Ideas??
Philadelphia is where the United States of America was born.
The people in this state could be the place where the nation is rescued from the President.
Philadelphia is where the United States of America was born.
The people in this state could be the place where the nation is rescued from the President.
and liberals will celebrate by burning it to the fucking ground.
Philadelphia Businesses Boarding Up In Anticipation Of Possible Election-Related Violence
https://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2020/11/02/philadelphia-businesses-boarding-up-in-anticipation-of-possible-election-related-violence/
A new statistic on NBC, 95% of the number of people who voted in the last election have already voted!
Hmmm... Probably if you compare to 2018. In 2016 we had almost 140 million voters and I have heard early voting was in the 95 million range.
Actually, this is a hypothetical by Enten, presuming that Trump sweeps FL, GA, and NC. He's not saying that Trump will sweep those states.
Enten could as easily have written "If Trump loses in FL, GA, or NC, then the outcome in PA and AZ likely won't matter."
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