Then the needle moves to a 50/50 election
There seems to be much hedging from the 538 crew as well as many other liberal pundits about the supposed Biden landslide. But the real question is what are the odds that Trump will win all three of those states. In the Nate Silver pure statistical world, it's basically the same chance of flipping a coin three times and having it come up heads all three times (or approximately 12.5%). In fact, it would be a little lower than that, because he has all of those states trending Biden.
But elections are not a coin flip and there is a much better chance (in my humble opinion) that the same candidate wins them all than it being a coin flip sort of deal. The question is whether or not that candidate is Trump or Biden. If Trump wins North Carolina, then Georgia should follow every time. While Florida has a slightly different demographic make up (with a larger amount of Hispanics) - I believe it is within the same general make up and should follow nine times out of ten.
Right now there are reports of heavy same day voting in Republican areas in Florida. By all objective standards of looking at early voting, Biden will need to outperform Clinton in todays in person voting to win back the state from Trump. I understand the idea that Biden expects to flip many independents, but elections are still about turning out your base. Also, there is no way of knowing that this flip of independents is any more real than the early voting advantage that Democrats were supposed to have had.
Suddenly Trump seems to have quite a few possibilities of winning this election. Quite a few more than would be expected by someone who is considered a 10-1 underdog.
55 comments:
Trump wins FL for sure, NC most likely, GA toss up
Imho
Politico: “Democrats have been clear in their condemnations of the president’s comments, which they consider the most worrisome of Trump’s four years in office, which were often marked by anti-democratic rhetoric.”
“But most Republicans, from critics to allies of Trump, have remained publicly silent. It’s not new for Trump’s party brethren to duck and cover when he says something troubling. But after five years of perfecting the art of explaining how they ‘didn’t see the tweet’ — the much parodied talking point to which Republicans on Capitol Hill often resort — it is shocking but not surprising that they aren’t speaking up now, even when the integrity of America’s electoral system is under attack by their party’s leader.”
I just saw this horror story for the President
Steve Kornacki on MSNBC said the same thing today.
I differ with you on the silent minority Republicans. They are scared to death about the violence by some of the President's statement on the militia groups.
The bottom line is patience is required.
I differ with you on the silent minority Republicans. They are scared to death about the violence by some of the President's statement on the militia groups.
yeah, that's it alky.
everyone in democrat-run cities are boarding up because of all of those imminent attacks from fictional right wing militias.
idiot.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/pennsylvania/
4.7% lead Biden.
A nail biter!
Reality escapes cultists like you Jimmy Hitler.
The "fictional right wing militias." tied to run the bus of the Biden's campaign.
The FBI is investigating them.
Tim Young
@TimRunsHisMouth
Oh look! A Democratic committeewoman in north Philly wearing a Biden mask not letting certified Republican poll watchers into a polling place... She ends with "that rule ain't worth being followed" when someone says they should be allowed inside.
VIDEO:
https://twitter.com/TimRunsHisMouth/status/1323649769135316994
Dems are definitely trying to steal Pennsylvania.
Blatantly.
At some point I wouldn't be shocked on having to do a revote if it becomes the election decider, Trump loses here, and that is the only fair remedy.
Observers weren't allowed into newly created "satellite" polling places for early voting.
And ballots are floating around everywhere...
Roger Amick said...
The "fictional right wing militias." tied to run the bus of the Biden's campaign.
The FBI is investigating them.
The only idiots who believe this are those who haven't seen the video or the police report.
The Biden staffer deliberately crossed over his lane into the Trump supporters pick-up. The staffer should be charged.
Only Wray seems unaware..
He should be fired ASAP
Mike Roman
@mikeroman
ILLEGAL campaigning INSIDE of a polling location in Philly. Man in blue is handing out DEM literature to voters IN LINE TO VOTE. This is why DEMS are keeping TRUMP WATCHERS OUT. They are STEALING it! This needs to STOP!
https://twitter.com/mikeroman/status/1323629214839513090
dems last stand...
PolitiFact
@PolitiFact
We don't have a crystal ball, but when Trump spokesman Jason Miller said “We will be over 290 electoral votes on Election Night," it's important to note that's impossible: Electoral votes aren’t cast until Dec. 14 and won’t be counted until Jan. 6.
Michael Duncan
@MichaelDuncan
The fact-checking industry is a joke
FACT CHECK: TRUE
An experiment for you, Ch.
Go to 270towin.com. which has GA, NC, Fl, OH, IA, and AZ as tossups.
Give Trump all of those states and he still doesn't win,
for Biden has 279.
Give Trump PA but take AZ from him.
Biden has 270.
Let him keep PA and AZ but take NC from him.
Biden has 274.
Let him keep PA and NC but take GA from him.
Biden has 275.
Wick is not a polling company for either political party. We exist to create technology and thought leadership that accelerates the market research industry’s journey to more speed, affordability, and accuracy. We withheld this article until the day before the election to limit the politicization of its data and insights for the media interests of either party.
From the author:
We are predicting that Donald Trump is going to win re-election. In our most recent battleground polls in the 6 states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio he is up by over 2% in all but Michigan (for those results scroll to the end of this article).
But what’s more interesting than our prediction that he will win, and why we are writing this article, is that all of our polls until last week had Trump losing by similar margins to what you have probably seen in the news.
What caused this change? It had little to do with either team’s campaigning because we can still easily conduct a poll that has Biden up by a large margin. Instead, it was our methodology that changed. We still used similar tactics that helped us accurately predict every battleground state in 2016: Nearly the same questionnaire design, random samples of likely and newly registered voters, no live agents, etc… But otherwise, we pretty much threw out the book of traditional assumptions made about data sampling. We decided to question everything as we started our field program.
Why did we throw out the book the week before an election when we had relied on its methods for hundreds of polls? It definitely wasn’t because excited to tell dozens of political consulting and public affairs clients on both sides of the aisle that the work we have all been doing might have a methodology problem. But end-of-the-day, our team has been involved in elections for 12 years, done thousands of polls, built a company that created an opinion research technology that is used by dozens of companies- and something just didn’t look or feel right (which was a good enough reason as any to check our premises). This feeling had been around for a whilebut the final decision came a week or so ago I was trying to listen to a Biden speech on the tv and couldn’t hear him over the sound of Trump supporters honking their horns. I joked that we needed to tally the honks because I have run hundreds of polls this year and this is the first I have heard from this group of voters… That they were the new “hard to reach segment” and this was precious data.
Were Mr. Biden to win Pennsylvania and hold onto the Upper Midwest, he could probably afford to lose other key states — Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas — and still capture the presidency. (Although possible, a Trump sweep of those states appears unlikely.)
Roger Amick said...
The "fictional right wing militias." tied to run the bus of the Biden's campaign.
The FBI is investigating them.
LOL. you asshole.not only were they not militia members, the FBI discovered that it was the Biden staffer following the bus in the RAV-4 that was lane straddling and almost caused the accident.
MSDNC's chrissy hayes got slaughtered on twitter on this topic.
LOL.
I spent a couple hours ago reading about him.
He's hired by Republicans who want to see good news
Fake news robotics
addendum to 11:14:
If Trump won PA and all the toss ups except OH,
Biden would have 277.
They boxed in the RAV-4 and almost caused an accident.
You keep reading only right wing nutcase websites
Blogger Roger Amick said...
They boxed in the RAV-4 and almost caused an accident.
You keep reading only right wing nutcase websites
no alky, i just watched the dashcam video.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1323077846101680128
Biden left a message on the wall of his childhood home.
“From this house to the White House with the grace of God. Joe Biden 11-3-2020.”
Show us on the map where the founders HURT you: Vox tries explaining how the Electoral College works and … yeah no
https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2020/11/03/show-us-on-the-map-where-the-founders-hurt-you-vox-tries-explaining-how-the-electoral-college-works-and-yeah-no/
I ignore most of your comments because you are detached from reality by the host of the reality show Presidency.
Biden left a message on the wall of his childhood home.
"Here I sit broken hearted, tried to shit and only, you know, the thing!"
Queef Unerdouche called Trump a whiny Kunta Kinte?
WTF??
Queef Unerdouche called Trump a whiny Kunta Kinte?
kunta kinte is Kaepernick's nickname.
LOL.
U.S.—Biden made what some are calling a "dubious claim" during a Pennsylvania speech in which he claimed he had the best strategy to "mobilize trunalimunumaprzure." Republicans immediately pounced on the statement with the intriguing counterclaim that Biden is "a hollow shell of a man being cynically used as a placeholder for Communists attempting to infiltrate the government."
Fortunately, the dedicated arbiters of truth at Snopes were on the case, and were able to confirm that Biden's claim was "mostly true."
Da Bee.
Roger Amick said...
Fake news robotics
Whatever dems accuse you of they are doing themselves...
David Martosko
@dmartosko
Wow. Troll farms that hire sockpuppets in small towns in India were paid to boost Joe Biden's Twitter account beginning when he named Kamala Harris as his running mate. Tens of thousands of them following him, interacting with him. Many speak no English.
https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-kamala-harris-got-big-social-media-boost-indian-troll-farms-1544047
Get's tiring to point this out ALL the time.
According to the Wall Street Journal, this morning First Lady Melania Trump went to a recreation center in Palm Beach to vote, and was the only person not wearing a mask.
___________
Do you think she secretly voted for Joe? ;-)
Alky you have a shot to better that 97 SAT
SAT Now Just A Single Page Requiring You To Draw Devil Horns On A Picture Of Trump
LMAO
Justin
@DimWittyNYC
Brian Stelter became a CNN host after he was dishonorably discharged from the circus.
confusing, I thought CNN was the circus.
Melania Trump Votes In Palm Beach
November 3, 2020 at 12:45 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 68 Comments
First Lady Melania Trump went to a recreation center in Palm Beach, Florida, to vote on Tuesday morning, the Wall Street Journal reports.
She was the only person not wearing a mask.
Biden is strengthening the connections to the construction unions. A lot of people I worked with were very conservative, despite the Republican opposition to organized labor.
But his green plan to replace the existing energy source economy will create millions of construction jobs.
Because I'm a liberal, some of the people I worked with didn't like my opinions.
But we put that aside and built all kinds of structures. I worked to build a 700 foot high smokestack in Colstrip Montana!
When you walk on the scaffolding outside the form, it scared the shit out of me!
https://politicalwire.com/2020/11/03/melania-trump-votes-in-palm-beach/
My actual score was in the top ten percent.
The STEAL is on:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/11/03/the-steal-is-on-in-pennsylvania-poll-watchers-denied-access-illegal-campaigning-at-polling-locations/
Roger Amick said...
My actual score was in the top ten percent.
figures that someone with a 97 SAT figures that was in the top 10 percent...
New York Post
@nypost
CDC says people sick with COVID-19 can break quarantine to vote in-person https://trib.al/qLeAcvg
CDC says people WITH Covid-19 can go and vote in person.
Can the CDC get any less scientific ???
What a joke they have become.
Cook report has alabama Senate race slight lean to gop. That's why they are questionable. In a deep red state that lives Trump, and loves the former auburn football coach Tuberville. Slight lean my ass. This is solid red.
BEST VIDEO OF THE DAY !!! (so far)
Barstool News Network
@BarstoolNewsN
The Amish are not playing around today
VIDEO:
https://twitter.com/BarstoolNewsN/status/1323623712311095296
Probably will have a Biden staffer accuse them of running him off the road.
Then Wray will have FBI investigate.
After he finishes lunch with Hunter.
Thao Nguyen
@nguyenthevote
i’ve seen this circulated several times recently but i’m going to post it again because i can’t stop laughing at it
https://twitter.com/nguyenthevote/status/1323660535582334979
CNN nailed it
guess that was after they "fixed" all their 2016 polling errors
A federal judge just ordered the Post Office must sweep the facilities for ballots and make sure they have get delivered
Amy
@MaybeAmes
PA Lt. Gov went on CNN in an absolute PANIC, begging Dems to "get off their butts" & bring mail-in ballots to a dropbox. He said, “Trump is popular here"
There’s still 700K unreturned Dem ballots.
CNN then showed a pic of Trump's Butler, PA rally
https://twitter.com/MaybeAmes/status/1323458485045133317
Secret Service estimated 57,000 people attended. In Butler.
WOW, I hadn't realized that either.
Ryan Evans
@RyanEvans29
89,000 Amish in PA. The Amish are also allowing there women to vote. This could be the key for Trump
https://twitter.com/RyanEvans29/status/1323460353309741057
Every vote counts.
Turnout.
Ohio and Michigan have moved to Trump .
Dave ATX
@daveatx512
If the Amish end up putting Trump over the top, it's going to be the most '2020' thing, ever.
If a Trumpet tries to intimidate you call 911 or Our Election Protection 866-OUR-VOTE (866-687-8683) hotline is proving live support now
Take 5 minutes and connect with our team to register, check your registration status, get help with absentee/early voting info and more
#NationalVoterRegistrationDay
https://t.co/TUDGiq74XV
Roger Amick said...
If a Trumpet tries to intimidate you call 911
yeah, that's it alky.
call 911 if and tell them a Trump supporter has invaded your 'safe space' and see how that turns out.
LOL. imbecile.
😂 Alky always the Drama Queen.
Roger,(aka. Mr. 97 SAT.) 2020 was to be your year.
Your "wishlist" included
A model as a Wife
A real House
A new A8 Audi
A Huge Bank Account
Which IF those did you actually make a reality?
Brennan’sOrangeJumpsuit
@15poundstogo
There’s a joke going around in Israel that hopefully soon we’ll be wearing our masks on the back of our heads to pull our ears back to where they used to be.
2020
btw alky,
what do you guys have in store for the blacks who vote Trump?
max-scene and 'driving miss nancy' clyburn are not happy about the prospect of those you refer to as 'negroes' casting a ballot for Trump.
Charlotte Alter
@CharlotteAlter
Biden campaign manager Jen O'Malley Dillon: "We continue to have multiple pathways to 270 electoral votes" says they can win 270 even without PA and FL
has the retreat started ???
No. It is only realistic to say that PA and FL are indeed close, but unlike Trump, Biden could win without either.
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