To some degree, I think the Nate Silvers of the world need to reevaluate what makes a pollster good or bad. According to Silver, the method and means of the polling seems way more important than the historical accuracy of the results. There is always this idea (with some) that you should be getting better results with the old fashioned phone polling than by other means. But whether or not you "should" be getting better results or whether or not polling by this means takes more resources, the final total bottom line should always be whether or not a pollster gets things right.
Btw....for those who don't remember. Rick Scott defeated Bill Nelson in Florida. That poll was off by almost 20 points. How can you possibly figure out a way to have a poll off by that sort of margin?
23 comments:
Political Wire
Swing State Poll Finds No Late Shift to Trump
10:18 am EST
Support for President Trump and Joe Biden in a group of battleground states has remained unchanged in recent days, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, finding little evidence of the kind of last-minute shift toward Mr. Trump that helped him win four years ago.
The poll, conducted on Sunday in 12 states in which the election is most competitive, finds Mr. Biden leading, 51% to 46%, essentially unchanged from a survey late last week.
First Read has important context:
Trump won these same states by a combined 2 points in 2016, 49% to 47%.
I hate repeating the same post in multiple threads but that is a staple for the lying, Goddard plagiarizing, POS "pastor" including just now so I will...
LORI HENDRY
@Lrihendry
What is it called when the people doing the fact checking are controlled by the same people doing the lying?
Gov. Mike Huckabee
@GovMikeHuckabee
It's called "main stream media" (MSM) commonly known as FAKE NEWS. Alley-way drug dealers have more cred than today's "journalists." Spot-on observation by @Lrihendry!
Same people who put out the fake polls, totally circular.
Any why real news gets no MSM reporting...
VOTE !!!
Eat this kputz
.“President Trump has presided over a stock market surge since taking office in 2017, but he’s been outpaced by three of his four predecessors,” Axios reports.
“The S&P 500 grew by 44.5% since Trump’s inauguration through the end of October 2020. This comes up short of former President Obama’s 66.1% through the comparable time period, but well above the -15.8% for former President George W. Bush.”
No matter what, Biden is ahead
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/presidential-polls-trump-biden/no-matter-the-polling-method-biden-is-ahead
Biden Camp Gearing Up For Post-Election Legal Battle With Trump Over Race Results.
Democratic candidate Joe Biden’s campaign is gathering donation funds in preparation for a court battle with President Donald Trump over the outcome of Tuesday’s election.
Politico reported on Monday that campaign staffers recently told donors on the Biden’s Lawyers Committee in a call that Biden needed funds specifically aimed at fighting the legal challenge that Trump has vowed to bring on immediately after Election Day.
One of the lawyers who participated in the call, Joe Cotchett, emphasized in an interview with Politico that potential post-election suits “are going to cost money.”
“Some of it is pro bono legal work,” he said. “But there are the filing fees, the service fees. You need money for all of that.”
There was another call last week in which lawyers helping the former vice president’s campaign told donors that the expected court battle would need “a fundraising apparatus like never before,” according to Politico.
Biden campaign press secretary TJ Ducklo said that “we can leave no doubt on Tuesday that Joe Biden will be the 46th President of the United States” if “Americans continue to show up in overwhelming numbers to make their voices heard.”
“We have also assembled the largest voter protection team in presidential campaign history to ensure every vote is counted,” he said in a statement. “We are prepared for all scenarios, and part of being prepared means having the resources necessary to continue the fight.”
On Sunday, Trump baldly admitted that he and his legal team would contest the election results as soon as Tuesday night.
“We’re going to go in the night of, as soon as that election is over, we’re going in with our lawyers,” he said.
The Democrats have a deep wallet
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/biden-camp-gearing-up-for-post-election-legal-battle-with-trump-over-results
Final Yahoo News/YouGov poll: Biden leads Trump by 10 as voters fear a chaotic Election Day
Yahoo News
by Andrew Romano
Nov 2nd 2020 8:48AM
On the eve of what threatens to be the most contentious and potentially confusing Election Day in modern memory, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden retains a double-digit lead over President Trump in the final Yahoo News/YouGov poll of the 2020 campaign — a 10-point margin that’s more than three times as large as Hillary Clinton’s final polling advantage in 2016.
Yet most voters (51 percent) also expect Trump to refuse to concede if he loses the election — and more than three quarters (77 percent) worry that violence will break out in the coming days.
The survey of 1,501 registered voters, which was conducted from Oct. 30 to Nov. 1, found that 53 percent of likely voters have either already voted for Biden or plan to vote for him by Nov. 3. Just 43 percent of likely voters say they are casting their ballots for Trump.
On average, Biden leads Trump nationally by about 7 percentage points. Four years ago, Clinton led Trump byan average of 3.2 points right before the election. Clinton wound up winning the national popular vote by 2.1 points, 48.2 percent to 46.1 percent — even as a combined 77,000 votes in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania put Trump over the top in the Electoral College.
Biden’s lead in the Yahoo News/YouGov survey is slightly smaller than it was two weeks ago (11 points) or one week ago (12 points). Yet the Democrat’s 10-point margin remains larger than it was in early October — and if it holds through Election Day, Biden would become the first candidate since Ronald Reagan in 1984 to win the presidency by double digits. Trump, meanwhile, would become the first incumbent since Herbert Hoover in 1932 to lose by 10 points or more.
That outcome is hardly assured. But given the size and stability of Biden’s national lead, the scope of his competitiveness in key states and the staggering number of Americans who have already voted — more than 93 million as of Monday morning — it’s too late for an “October Surprise” to be a game-changer by shaking up the news cycle. Instead, the president will only secure a second term if polls are underestimating his support by far more than in 2016, when they missed by about 1 point nationally and about 4 points in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Another difference is that in YouGov’s final 2016 survey, a full 14 percent of likely voters said they were either undecided or casting their ballots for third-party candidates; many of them broke for Trump at the last minute. Today, that number is down to 4 percent. With fewer persuadable voters left to persuade, Trump is still mired in the low 40s — and Biden, unlike Clinton, is above the crucial 50-percent mark. The last Democrat to claim more than 53 percent of the popular vote was Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.
As a result,the FiveThirtyEight forecast,which gave Trump a 29.1 percent chance of winning one day before the 2016 election, now gives him a 10 percent chance of winning.
Again, one-in-10 isn’t nothing; the president could still get reelected. But the poll makes it clear that Trump is facing much longer odds than last time around. Broad majorities of likely voters, for instance, say Biden would do a better job than Trump handling the coronavirus pandemic (53 percent to 37 percent), health care (52 percent to 38 percent), race relations (54 percent to 35 percent) and the environment (55 percent to 31 percent). Narrow pluralities also pick Biden on the economy (46 percent to 45 percent) and crime (45 percent to 43 percent) — issues once thought to be Trump’s strong suits.
One metric that doesn’t necessarily favor Biden is enthusiasm. More Trump supporters (63 percent) than Biden supporters (56 percent) report being "extremely enthusiastic" about voting for president, though the gap narrows when those who say they’re “very enthusiastic” are included (a combined 80 percent among Trump voters vs. 76 percent among Biden voters). Likewise, the two sides are equally invested in the outcome of the election, with 90 percent of Biden voters and 88 percent of Trump voters saying they "care a lot" about who wins — and 45 percent on each side saying the country “will never recover” if their preferred candidate loses. WOW
With so much seemingly at stake — and with Trump reportedly eager to declare premature victory before all pandemic-induced mail ballots have been tallied — voters are increasingly anxious about how Election Day itself will play out. Just 22 percent of registered voters expect to know the winner on Tuesday night, and only slightly more (28 percent) still believe the election will be “free and fair.” Better than two-thirds, meanwhile, are either very or somewhat worried that “the outcome will not be accepted by one of the candidates” (71 percent) or that “legitimate mail ballots will not be counted” (69 percent).
“I think it's a terrible thing when states are allowed to tabulate ballots for a long period of time after the election is over,” Trump told reporters Sunday. “We're going to go in the night of — as soon as that election's over, we're going in with our lawyers."
Yet the vast majority of voters oppose this approach. A full 71 percent, in fact, prefer to wait "for mail-in ballots to be counted so we are sure which candidate won, even if the process drags on for some time” — while just 29 percent would rather “determine the outcome of the election quickly, even if many mail-in ballots have not been counted.”
Similarly, 68 percent of voters concur that "we must count every vote even if we don't have a final result on November 3”; only 23 percent say "we must have a final result on November 3 no matter what."
Only Trump’s supporters disagree with counting every ballot. Most (57 percent) would rather determine the election “quickly,” and a plurality (44 percent) says Nov. 3 should be the deadline for a final result — which is perhaps why roughly half the electorate thinks Trump wants to make it harder to vote (49 percent) and harder to count every vote (48 percent).
But 63 percent of registered voters now say they trust their state to “accurately count all the votes in this year's election,” up from 46 percent in September — and a remarkable two-thirds of likely voters (66 percent) say they have already voted. Among them, Biden has a massive lead (63 percent to 34 percent), while Trump leads by nearly as much (60 percent to 34 percent) among likely voters who’ve yet to cast their ballots.
Whatever happens on Nov. 3, millions and millions of Americans will not take it lightly. The fears of Biden voters are especially pronounced, with six in ten saying they'd be devastated (70 percent), depressed (64 percent), afraid (62 percent) or angry (62 percent) if Trump wins.
At the same time, 59 percent of Trump supporters say that if the president loses, the most important reason will be that “Democrats rigged the election.” On this, at least, the two sides agree, with a nearly identical number of Biden supporters (58 percent) predicting that if the former vice president loses, the most important reason will be that “Republicans stole the election.” No other explanation — the candidates’ respective campaigns; the coronavirus pandemic; even who voters believed would make the best president — comes close.
In other words: Buckle up, America. We could be in for some turbulence.
Prediction for Election Night
11:00 am EST
Henry Olsen today released his sixth biennial election prediction essay, and what he calls “perhaps the easiest” of them all.
He writes:
“Former vice president Joe Biden will win comfortably unless we experience the greatest polling failure in modern history.
"Democrats will also gain control of the Senate and expand their majority in the House.
"While not the landslide that some hope for, Democrats will simultaneously control the presidency and both houses of Congress for only the third time since Ronald Reagan’s election in 1980.
"That alone is a historic achievement that will give them the upper hand to determine the next stage of our ongoing national crisis.”
GOD BLESS AMERICA!
Blogger Roger Amick said...
Eat this kputz
.“President Trump has presided over a stock market surge since taking office in 2017, but he’s been outpaced by three of his four predecessors,” Axios reports.
LOL. imagine just how fucking stupid you have to be to be influenced by this drivel from axios.
LOL. good one, captain plagiarism.
10:13 is true, rrb. The figures don't lie.
heh:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that 52% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Forty-eight percent (48%) disapprove.
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_nov02
and captain plagiarism was touting an old poll that showed Trump way under water...
LOL.
Final Forecast Shows Sweep for Democrats
11:03 am EST
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball‘s final Electoral College ratings show
Biden 321 electoral votes
Trump 217.
Democrats are narrow favorites to capture a Senate majority,
50 to 48 with two Toss-ups — the two Georgia races, both of which we think are likely to go to runoffs.
Democrats will net 10 seats in the House.
Here's Rasmussen for yesterday, seen up to date and in context.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
NORTH CAROLINA HAS NOW GONE TO TRUMP ON THE REAL CLEAR POLITICS NO TOSS UPS ELECTORAL MAP, GIVING
===== BIDEN 335 vs TRUMP 203 ====
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html
Don't know if you have seen similar CHT but Minnesota is looking REAL GOOD to flip to Trump. At least to an amateur like me...
L2 Data
@L2political
Minnesota Early Return Ballots:1,422,818 35% R / 36% D / 29% NP
A: 18-29 12% / 30-39 13% / 40-49 12% / 50-64 27% / 65+ 36%
Asian 3% / White 76% / Hispanic 2% / AfAm 1.6%
HS Diploma 17% / Bach Degree 22% / Grad Degree+ 12%
1st Time Voting/New Regs: 8.3%
https://l2political.com/2020/10/16/l2s-early-absentee-voting-data-explained/
https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1322925202502803456
gun these assholes down in the street:
Shut Down D.C., a progressive group that says it uses “strategic direct action to advance justice and hold officials accountable,” is targeting at least 27 conservative organizations in the Washington metro area as Election Day approaches.
An interactive map from Shut Down D.C. lists as “Trump boosters” a range of organizations, including The Heritage Foundation, the parent organization of The Daily Signal.
Other groups listed include Americans for Prosperity, Competitive Enterprise Institute, FreedomWorks, Leadership Institute, National Taxpayers Union, Republican Jewish Coalition, and UrbanCURE. (The complete list is below.)
Shut Down D.C.’s map contains the address, phone number, and website for each listed group. It also shows the location of media organizations, technology companies, and government offices in Washington, D.C.
https://www.dailysignal.com/2020/10/30/shut-down-dc-targets-conservative-organizations-as-trump-boosters/
Blogger JamesNewLeaf said...
Here's Rasmussen for yesterday, seen up to date and in context.
i show today's and you respond with yesterday's.
you're a fucking moron, pederast.
On the eve of what threatens to be the most contentious and potentially confusing Election Day in modern memory, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden retains a double-digit lead over President Trump in the final Yahoo News/YouGov poll of the 2020 campaign — a 10-point margin that’s more than three times as large as Hillary Clinton’s final polling advantage in 2016.
If the difference was the same, Biden would be in trouble.
But the President is going to defeat.
John Cardillo
@johncardillo
The FBI lied about signing off on illegal FISA warrants and tried to cover up Hunter Biden’s corruption for a year, but sprang into action in seconds over a fender bender on a TX roadway.
Find me the traffic violation section of the US Code.
Another political smear by Wray.
desperation tactics luckily quickly debunked by actual video. Of course the state media may not report that until after the election and they will have a smear narrative to run with for a few important days.
Where's Hunter ?
😞Joe will not cooperate with FBI in the Hunter Criminal Investigation.😲
Regarding Larry Sabato's forecast at 10:29 above
which has
BIDEN 321 vs TRUMP 217
here is the map he apparently bases that on:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/sabatos-crystal-ball-2020-president
Note that Biden
does not have FL, TX, OH, or IA.
He does have PA, NC(!), GA(!!), MI, WI, MN, NV, AZ.
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