How will redistricting affect the 2022 race?

Obviously were are early into things - but this is telling

The University of Virginia Center of Politics released a report earlier this month showing that incumbent Democrats will already face an uphill battle in 2022 because of redistricting. According to the report, only two Republicans face toss-up races.

“What stands out here is the tiny number of Republicans in the Toss-up column, just two, versus the large number of Democrats there (19),” the report reads. “Overall, these ratings show 211 districts at least leaning to the Republicans, 203 at least leaning to the Democrats, and 21 Toss-ups (19 held by Democrats, two held by Republicans). Splitting the Toss-ups roughly down the middle – let’s say 11-10 Republican – would result in a 222-213 Republican majority, good for a nine-seat Republican net gain and a narrow majority the same size as the one Democrats elected in November.”

You can open up an interesting associated survey with this link. It looks at ten battleground districts and takes a look at what is and isn't popular. For instance, Joe Biden seems to be personally pretty popular. But his plans to increase taxes, add to the deficit, or pass a large stimulus are pretty unpopular.

For instance, in these swing districts the range was between 18% and 29% in terms of those who support a tax rate increase. Close to half in most of these districts would like to see taxes lowered. The rest would like them to remain the same. Large majorities suggest that a targeted plan to raise the taxes on just the rich will end up impacting more than just the rich. Somewhere between 58% and 68% say that raising taxes will negatively impact the economy.

Meanwhile there is overwhelming disapproval regarding the idea of spending 4 trillion dollars on infrastructure and a majority of voters in every district are non-supportive of any spending bill larger than 1 trillion. In fact only somewhere between 9% and13% supported anything over 2 trillion when asked to provide a range that they were comfortable with.

Meanwhile, a majority want any infrastructure bill to pass with bi-partisan support and a majority of people in these districts blame "both" sides for a lack of bi-partisanship. This does not suggest that the 2022 swing districts are going to be on board with the Democratic plans to bust up the filibuster so they can start passing bills 50-50 with a tie-breaker. 

It's early in the cycle folks and redistricting will shake things up. But at this point, it looks like Democrats would have to see things change in their favor over the next year or so to see this swing back to their side.