Roger Amick said... The infrastructure bill will actually pay for itself eventually when millions of union members make good money and pay taxes.
So let's make things simple and suggest that a union job will earn someone $100,000/year. Probably way high, but we can let that go. So how many 100K/year union jobs making good money and paying taxes will be required to come up with enough wages and tax revenue to pay for the infrastructure bills?
338,000,000 jobs. As in 338 million new jobs.
Kind of hard to create 338 million new jobs when you have a population of 330 million people.
So what might be realistic? Let's say this stimulus bill creates ten million new $100,000 jobs. Now that is a ridiculous overstatement of what we should expect, but let's use it anyways. Some more simple math would suggest that that would earn back about 139 billion dollars over a ten year period. Short by 4.361 trillion dollars. It barely makes a dent. That is our best case scenario on steriods.
Again.... this is how our politicians have numbed the brains of their sheep. They somehow convince the most easily convincible that a few trillion dollars can be just "paid for". They don't provide any actual numbers to show it can be paid for. They just let their liberals and their vivid unrealistic imagination run wild. They have numbed their brains to how much money a trillion dollars really is.
Lastly...
Prior to these two bills being passed the four year budget for the Biden Administration term was projected to set a record of approximately 5.7 trillion dollars in deficits. Trust me when I say that this is a very, very generous projection by the CBO. It will likely be much higher than that in real life. God forbid we end up in more Covid lockdowns and run into another major economic downturn.
But either way, we can now add on some additional to cover the 4.7 Trillion that is sure to pass. How much will Biden "actually" add to the national debt? Who knows. But someone else will have to pay for it. Biden will be dead and buried before this spending will be even close to gettin paid off.
30 comments:
338,000,000 jobs. As in 338 million new jobs.
Kind of hard to create 338 million new jobs when you have a population of 330 million people.
Like I've been saying around here for years now -
There's stupid, and then there's "Alky" stupid.
Roger Amick said...
All you have is insults.
Because you can't comprehend whatever I say.
I'm accustomed to it because I am a lot smarter than you are.
August 15, 2021 at 9:26 AM
And like I've been saying for years, no one kbows less about economics than Roger.
Is is it just Roger?
Or is it liberals in general are just no longer willing to engage in any sort of factual exchange. It's why they support censorship, and cancel culture, mandates, and Government control. Then, politicians can just "decide" to spend 10 times more stimulus money in one year than has ever been spent on any other stimulus and just demand that it not be questioned.
Make an argument that you cannot actually pay for 4.7 trillion and they will shut down your twitter account and ban you on facebook all while telling the world it is "disinformation" (which by definition is generally true information that doesn't fit the narrative).
I mean do you think the Reverend or Denny have given two seconds thought to how 4.7 trillion is paid for? They simply are too worried about the next election and hope that this outrageous amount of money being passed by Congress will help them avoid electoral catastrophe.
They simply are too worried about the next election and hope that this outrageous amount of money being passed by Congress will help them avoid electoral catastrophe.
winning the next election is all they care about
by whatever means
in their heart they are never wrong and nothing else matters
except "winning"
their singular focus means they do "win" a lot
while America decays
Without going into details.
The bottom line is quite simple.
Bottom up economics will eventually cause the middle class will have a higher percentage of the GDP.
Does it pay for itself right now? No.
But as the economy continues to grow well enough, that the middle class will be much stronger and..more likely to vote for Democrats. And the strong middle class will eventually pay off the debt. If they do what Clinton did in 1999.
From the Reagan era until today, they voted for Republicans. But if Biden's plan works like I said before about improving education systems, the crime rate will drop. Because high school graduates rarely get arrested and convicted and imprisoned for their lives.
The Democratic party will probably prevail for a generation.
The deficit argument is irrelevant because the truth is that the only Presidents since the 50s who decreased the deficit were Democrats.
It's why they support censorship, and cancel culture, mandates, and Government control.
Anti wokism rhetoric is not rational
Hey roger,
You forgot to include any numbers of any kind in your "analysis"
please do it over and include "rough" numbers
TIA
but I think you won't because you can't
and that says it all
just unicorns and rainbows
Joe is in charge, he has all votes he needs to do whatever to the USA.
His fiscal driving principle is if your going barkupt, borrow and spend more.
Private companies have the first amendment rights to determine what they want to let others say!
If you don't like it!"::
Even the conservative Supreme Court will not allow the government to decide whether the private companies what to broadcast. Unless you want to improve your fairness Doctrine on Facebook and Twitter and Instagram, etc..
winning the next election is all they care about
Indeed, but "winning" belongs in quotes.
Liberals are faced with the fact that their ideas are failures. Look at any major (or minor) city in America run by the left. It's a crime-ridden shithole with ghetto slums, failing schools, and violent crime up by huge percentages.
Take covid. A major pandemic so utterly mishandled, mismanaged and misinformed as we will ever see. Largely managed by whom? The left. The one bright spot being the Trump vaccines, and even that was publicly panned by our now president and vice president, not for any legitimate reason, but simply because that bad orange man was very bad indeed.
The left must demand compliance with their agenda because no one is stupid enough to go along with it voluntarily. And this is why they must lie, cheat and steal their way to political power, as no one voluntarily gives that much power to people so utterly incompetent at every single level of human existence.
Afghanistan is simply the failure du jour. There will be another failure tomorrow - be it economic, inflation, rising crime, the southern border, or something yet unseen.
This is why the left so loves socialism. Socialism is simply the equal distribution of misery. And misery is what the left has to offer by the fucking boatload.
If Joe actually wanted cheaper gas prices and add union jobs he has to reverse his XL Pipeline cancellation and the fracking on us public lands.
Remove logging restriction and get more timber to the mills.
Basically speaking.
Like I said before.
The percentage of the GDP is what matters to me.
Both tax cuts and deficit spending has increased the debt.
It's philosophy rather than economics.
Blogger Roger Amick said...
Without going into details.
The bottom line is quite simple.
Bottom up economics will eventually cause the middle class will have a higher percentage of the GDP.
Does it pay for itself right now? No.
LOL. "Without going into details."
Which you never do because you're simply not able.
You make sweeping proclamations on various topics all the time, thinking it makes you look smart, but under scrutiny like CH did in this post, it simply makes you look like the imbecile we know you to be.
Alky,
I'm solidly middle class and I made north of $150K last year, and am on pace to earn even more in 2021. I say this not to brag but to prove a point - if you need the government to make things "fair" for you, you're a fucking loser with little of anything of value to offer a capitalistic society. If your only "talent" is to run a racist BLM grift like Patrice Cullors or Henry Rogers X, you're just a piece of shit running a con.
If you need a union to fleece a couple grand worth of dues from you in order to "represent" you, you're a fucking moron by definition.
So back to the original point - "Details" is what you always lack. Data-driven factual details. And it's why you wander around this blog every day looking like a goddamned fool.
Blogger KansasDemocrat said...
If Joe actually wanted cheaper gas prices and add union jobs he has to reverse his XL Pipeline cancellation and the fracking on us public lands.
Yeah, note THAT irony.
The alky pleads for good middle class union jobs and his president's very first act was to destroy Keystone XL.
That wasn't just stupid, it was "alky" stupid.
The last Republican President who left office with the economy growing up??
George H.W. Bush.
He lost his base when increased taxes, and under Bill Clinton the economy created 21 million jobs.
The percentage of the GDP is what matters to me.
So what "percentage of the GDP" does an unemployed ex-Keystone XL pipeline union worker earn alky?
Roger, address your math issues exposed by CHT.
Thank you.
The dot-com bubble created 21 million jobs, alky. Bubba just happened to be in the right place at the right time. And safely out of office when that bubble BURST.
I was in the thick of it. Clinton had nothing to do with it.
The one thing Clinton does deserve partial credit for is welfare reform. THAT in and of itself contributed mightily to job growth in America. Good things happen when you're told your free ride is over and you have to get off your fat, lazy welfare ass and go to fucking work like the rest of us who have been picking up your tab.
Of course 0linsky promptly shitcanned that legislation just like a good little Marxist would.
Freedom from government dependence is the worst thing imaginable to a Marxist, and it's exactly why folks like the alky insist that we need government to make things fair.
I always give Pres. Clinton hogh credit for creating the IBond. It helped pay for my sons paid for in full 4 year degree and is doing the Same in part for my daughter.
RRB the next landmine Biden is laying ate feet of older Americans is his "Capital Gains".
Punishing wealth, again.
From the Reagan era until today, they voted for Republicans. But if Biden's plan works like I said before about improving education systems, the crime rate will drop. Because high school graduates rarely get arrested and convicted and imprisoned for their lives.
Again Roger... we can improve our education system in about 1001 different ways without spending 4.7 trillion dollars. We can do most everything you suggest without 4.7 trillion dollars.
And we cannot run multi-trillion dollar budgets even short term, much less long term. Yeah, your life looks great short term of you max out your credit cards, take on new loans and buy everything you want.
But you still have to pay back those bills. If you don't, they come for everything.
But at least Roger has the honestly to admit two things:
1) He hasn't the slightest clue how any of this will be paid for (Hint, it won't).
2) He openly promotes that concept that lacking any other means to promote themselves, the money is being spent to buy voters moving forward.
Obviously - the problem comes in that people hate deficits and debt and rarely give deficit spending credit for economic help (if in fact it helps). The amount of deficit will have negative economic impact that will no doubt undermine much of the desired positive.
Blogger KansasDemocrat said...
RRB the next landmine Biden is laying ate feet of older Americans is his "Capital Gains".
Punishing wealth, again.
You'll appreciate this article, KD:
One of Saratoga County's largest farms at risk due to tax laws
The numbers are intimidating.
Wood’s farm value is about $12 million, including the land, barns, equipment and cows. He has more than 30 employees.
Currently, the estate tax is 40 percent for any amount above $11.7 million, so the heirs could probably avoid it.
But after 2025, the estate tax is going back to its previous level of 40 percent for any amount above $6 million. That could mean a tax of $2.4 million.
That’s not all. The successors must also pay a capital gains tax of 20 percent, which would also be a tax of about $2.4 million.
And that number could double. President Joseph Biden has proposed to increase the capital gains tax to 39.6 percent.
https://www.timesunion.com/news/article/One-of-Saratoga-County-s-largest-farms-at-risk-16335619.php?IPID=Times-Union-HP-CP-Spotlight
Thanks RRB.
Solid article showing the damage of unbridled taxation.
Roger, please provide a definition of this term
"Bottom up economics"
Thanks
There’s nothing America can’t handle if we actually look squarely at the problem. And this is work for all Americans, not just some. Not just whites. Not just blacks. If we want to honor the courage of those who marched that day, then all of us are called to possess their moral imagination. All of us will need to feel as they did the fierce urgency of now. All of us need to recognize as they did that change depends on our actions, on our attitudes, the things we teach our children. And if we make such an effort, no matter how hard it may sometimes seem, laws can be passed, and consciences can be stirred, and consensus can be built.
With such an effort, we can make sure our criminal justice system serves all and not just some. Together, we can raise the level of mutual trust that policing is built on — the idea that police officers are members of the community they risk their lives to protect, and citizens in Ferguson and New York and Cleveland, they just want the same thing young people here marched for 50 years ago — the protection of the law. Together, we can address unfair sentencing and overcrowded prisons, and the stunted circumstances that rob too many boys of the chance to become men, and rob the nation of too many men who could be good dads, and good workers, and good neighbors.
With effort, we can roll back poverty and the roadblocks to opportunity. Americans don’t accept a free ride for anybody, nor do we believe in equality of outcomes. But we do expect equal opportunity. And if we really mean it, if we’re not just giving lip service to it, but if we really mean it and are willing to sacrifice for it, then, yes, we can make sure every child gets an education suitable to this new century, one that expands imaginations and lifts sights and gives those children the skills they need. We can make sure every person willing to work has the dignity of a job, and a fair wage, and a real voice, and sturdier rungs on that ladder into the middle class.
The basic definition of bottom up economics is that the middle class will have a higher demand of the GDP, than they have now.
The amount of deficit will have negative economic impact that will no doubt undermine much of the desired positive.
The President cut taxes immediately after he won the election.
Until the pandemic began, the excellent economy he inherited, the doubt about the deficit did not undermine much of the desired positive momentum.
You have been bragging about the Trump economics since he was sworn in.
Even though the last six months of the Obama recovery created more jobs than the first year of his Presidency, you never gave him credit.
Sunday Evening Roger's Economic Class.
Trickle-down has failed to deliver such benefits. Indeed, over the last five decades, tax cuts for the rich have led to negative or flat economic growth and higher unemployment. It stifled consumption by transferring income from those who consume to those who save.
Most recently, Trump relied on the trickle-down economics to cut corporate, capital gains and individual tax rates, all of which primarily benefited the wealthy. So consumer spending did not generate enough economic growth to replace the tax revenues lost from the cuts. Nor did the cuts spur the business investment and hiring promised by Trump. In fact, business investment plummeted. Corporations, instead of investing in their businesses and hiring more Americans, used their newfound profits to buy back record amounts of their stock and purchase or merge with other companies, firing employees to avoid redundancies.
Investments in infrastructure also yield better economic returns than most other government investments. Spending $100 billion would add roughly 1 million full-time American jobs. And each $100 invested in infrastructure would boost productivity and private sector output by $13 to $17, generating more wage growth and economic benefits across more income classes.
Every dollar invested in infrastructure under the AJP is expected to return $1.50, which is among the highest rates of return for federal government spending. And by 2024, the AJP would grow GDP by 3.8 percent and add 13.5 million jobs, compared with just 2.2 percent GDP growth and 11.4 million jobs if it doesn't become law.
Biden seems willing to compromise and may partially walk back the corporate tax increase he proposed to pay for infrastructure spending,that he did walk back, which Republicans are opposing. But he shouldn't compromise the fundamental shift he has signaled from trickle-down to trickle-up. Income and wealth inequality worsens health problems, dropout rates, crime levels, political instability and overall economic risk. Given the failures of trickle-down, Biden's pivot to trickle-up economics holds the best promise to change this equation. 19 Republicans did give it a chance, and passed Biden's infrastructure initiative.
Neil Baron
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/550007-bidens-trickle-up-economics-is-just-what-america-needs
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