Well you can have it one of two ways. An objective measure of a recession (long thought to be two quarters of consecutive negative growth) or it can be subjective. But if you really want to make is subjective, then the only "opinion" that matters is the general public. Doesn't matter if Paul "clown" Krugman says it is not a recession, or if Slow Joe Biden argues that it is not a recession, or if the entire Administrative economic teams denies it, or if every liberal journalist or media whore falls in line with the no recession argument...Brian Deese, yesterday: "Two negative quarters of GDP growth is not the technical definition of recession.”
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) July 27, 2022
Deese, 2008: “Economists have a technical definition of recession, which is two consecutive quarters of negative growth.” pic.twitter.com/MzVk7drq3v
if the American public believes we are in a recession then we are in a recession.
Sorry to state the obvious, but if Democrats want to tell Americans that everything is peachy and that their economic concerns are not well founded, well then that will be seen as out of touch. It is also insulting to those who are feeling the very real economic hardships right now. Unless they figure out how to accept the reality of the bad economy and take some responsibility for it, they will be hammered in November.
36 comments:
WASHINGTON (AP) — Jerome Powell delivered a tough message at the start of a news conference Wednesday: Inflation is way too high, and the Federal Reserve is laser-focused on taming it with higher borrowing costs.
Yet despite his resolute words, the Fed chair also said for the first time that the central bank’s actions are already having an effect on the economy in ways that could slow the worst inflation the nation has endured in four decades.
With the Fed’s benchmark interest rate now at a level that’s believed to neither stimulate nor restrain growth, Powell said the pace of rate hikes could slow in the coming months. And he pointed to signs that many businesses are having an easier time filling jobs, a trend that would limit pay increases and potentially slow inflation.
“There were some hints that we’re closer to the end than the beginning” of the Fed’s efforts to tighten credit, said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase and a former Fed staffer.
Powell’s suggestion that the Fed could moderate its future rate hikes after it announced a three-quarter-point hike Wednesday — its second in a row of that substantial size — helped touch off a celebratory rally in the stock market, with the S&P 500 jumping 2.6% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq rocketing 4.1%, its biggest gain in more than two years.
Some economists didn’t share the market’s optimism. They noted that Powell kept the door open to another big rate increase when the Fed next meets in September. The Fed chair also indicated that even if the economy were to fall into a recession, the central bank would keep raising rates if it deemed that necessary to curb still-high inflation.
When asked at his news conference whether a recession would alter the Fed’s course of rate hikes, Powell said simply, “We’re going to be focused on getting inflation back down.”
Here are five takeaways from the Fed’s interest-rate setting policy meeting and Powell news conference:
___
POWELL: U.S. NOT IN RECESSION
A slew of recent data has signaled the economy is weakening. Economists are increasingly forecasting a recession for later this year or in 2023. Powell, though, pointed Wednesday to the robust labor market as evidence the economy isn’t in recession, at least not yet.
Employers, he noted, added 2.7 million jobs in the first half of the year, the 3.6% U.S. unemployment rate is near a 50-year low and wage growth is strong.
“It doesn’t make sense that the economy could be in recession with this kind of thing happening,” the Fed chair said.
___
JOBS OVER GDP
On Thursday, the government will estimate second-quarter gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation’s output of goods and services. Some economists think the GDP report will show that the economy contracted for a second straight quarter, which would meet an informal definition of recession.
But even if it does, the definition of recession that is most widely accepted is the one determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research, a group of economists whose Business Cycle Dating Committee defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”
Powell also noted that the government’s estimate of quarterly GDP is often significantly revised later and that the initial reports on economic growth should be taken with “a grain of salt.”
The Fed chair did sound a cautionary note, pointing out that there are signs that momentum in the job market is easing. Job openings have declined modestly, more people are seeking unemployment aid and hiring is lower than it was at the start of the year.
___
SLOWER GROWTH, HIRING GOOD
But even those signs of a slightly weaker job market are not all bad news, at least from the Fed’s perspective.
The Fed wants to cool the economy through its rate hikes, which make home mortgages, auto loans and business borrowing more expensive. As consumers and businesses spend less, the resulting pullback in demand can bring inflation down closer to the Fed’s 2% annual target.
“We think it’s necessary to have growth slow down, and growth is going to be slowing this year,” Powell said.
___
HOW HIGH WILL RATES GO?
Since early this year, the Fed has steadily ratcheted up its forecasts for how fast and how high it would have to raise rates to conquer inflation. On Wednesday, though, Powell said that estimates that Fed policymakers made a month ago for where rates would go next was still the best guide.
In June officials projected that the Fed’s key rate would reach between 3.25% and 3.5% at the end of this year, which Powell said was a “moderately restrictive” level. And at least two additional rate hikes were forecast for next year.
For the Fed to meet that year-end target would involve a half-point increase in September, and two quarter-point hikes in November and December. Such increases would represent a much more modest pace than the 2.25 percentage points of hikes the Fed has now carried out in just the past four meetings, the fastest pace since the early 1980s.
___
THE FED ISN’T ALONE
Other major central banks around the world have also been imposing big rate increases to combat inflation, which has spiked in nearly all advanced economies.
The European Union raised its short-term rate by a half-point last week. Canada’s central bank announced a full percentage point increase earlier this month. Last month, the Swiss National Bank implemented a half-point hike, its first increase in 15 years.
Although higher rates around the world could help throttle inflation, they also carry the threat of causing a global economic slowdown.
This week, the International Monetary Fund downgraded its outlook for world economic growth to 3.2% this year. That was down from a 3.6% estimate in April and much slower than last year’s 6.1% pace.
https://apnews.com/article/inflation-economy-prices-jerome-powell-a67ea5fa6cb86c8be7f491b2355fe91a
For the Fed to meet that year-end target would involve a half-point increase in September, and two quarter-point hikes in November and December. Such increases would represent a much more modest pace than the 2.25 percentage points of hikes the Fed has now carried out in just the past four meetings, the fastest pace since the early 1980s.
Yet despite his resolute words, the Fed chair also said for the first time that the central bank’s actions are already having an effect on the economy in ways that could slow the worst inflation the nation has endured in four decades.
Inflation Reduction is good news for the people 🙌
Plus you ignored the news that could change the election results by
Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) on Wednesday reached a deal with Democratic leaders on a spending package that aims to lower health-care costs, combat climate change and reduce the federal deficit, marking a massive potential breakthrough for President Biden’s long-stalled economic agenda.
Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs and deficit reduction
You will look crazy for this
if the American public believes we are in a recession then we are in a recession.
Sorry to state the obvious, but if Democrats want to tell Americans that everything is peachy and that their economic concerns are not well founded, well then that will be seen as out of touch. It is also insulting to those who are feeling the very real economic hardships right now. Unless they figure out how to accept the reality of the bad economy and take some responsibility for it, they will be hammered in November.
You think that the people are stupid
The U.S. economy shrank again for a second straight quarter, at a 0.9 percent annual rate, which has often signaled a recession.
The new figures, released Thursday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, come at a tumultuous time for the economy, though economists disagree on the likelihood of a full-fledged economic slump. In the past, six months of contraction in economic growth has usually indicated a recession, although that determination is made by a separate panel of experts.
Strange. Earlier, I was unable to post on this blog. I sent an email to chtruth asking if I'd been blocked, and now suddenly I can post again.
I think he shut it down accidentally
I tweeted him
A lot of Republicans want to move on from Trump.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/07/trump-january-6-hearings-2024-election/670971/?utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
Official
The Biden Inflation
Socialist Democrats you own it.
This is good news 🙌
WASHINGTON -- Fewer Americans applied for jobless benefits last week, but the previous week's number was revised upward significantly, with claims breaching the 250,000 level in back-to-back weeks for the first time in more than eight months.
Applications for jobless aid for the week ending July 23 declined by 5,000 to 256,000 from the previous week’s 261,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The number of claims for the week of July 16 was revised upward by 10,000 from the previous estimate of 251,000.
First-time applications generally reflect layoffs.
The four-week average for claims, which smooths out some of the week-to-week volatility, rose by 6,250 from the previous week, to 249,500. That number is also at its highest level since November of last year.
The total number of Americans collecting jobless benefits for the week ending July 16 fell by 25,000 from the previous week, to 1,359,000. That figure has been near 50-year lows for months
Glad to hear there was no intentional blockage of anyone.
I noticed there were no posts here this morning until yours suddenly appeared at 8:45. Then I too could post.
THIS IS GOOD NEWS TOO
HOORAY!
Climate Hawks Cheer Deal with Joe Manchin
July 28, 2022 at 9:28 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 29 Comments
Politico: “Mere weeks after urging President Joe Biden to go all-out to push the limits of his executive powers on climate change, progressives — many of whom have spent their careers imploring Congress to act — hailed an agreement that would see $369 billion in climate and energy investments as the biggest ever.”
AND THIS CAN BE FILED UNDER---
YOU CAN'T MAKE THIS STUFF UP
Trump Asks Court to Rule He Has ‘Absolute Immunity’
July 28, 2022 at 7:55 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 161 Comments
Former President Donald Trump has asked the D.C. Circuit Court to rule he has “absolute immunity” from lawsuits pertaining to his January 6 speech and the subsequent moves he made surrounding the 2020 election.
HO HO HO HO LOTS OF LUCK!
ALSO GOOD NEWS
Biden’s Tax Promises Suddenly Revived
July 28, 2022 at 7:48 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 24 Comments
“President Joe Biden’s campaign trail promise to increase taxes on corporations and the wealthy as part of a battle against glaring income inequality in the United States got an unexpected boost on Wednesday,” Reuters reports.
“Early proposals to increase tax rates from Biden and his fellow Democrats hit a brick wall in Congress after Republicans, and some Democrats, opposed them. But a sudden reversal by West Virginia Democratic Senator Joe Manchin, a swing vote in the divided Senate, has given Biden’s tax agenda a new lease on life.”
YES, THINGS ARE BEGINNING TO LOOK UP
Many Democrats Still View Biden as Campaign Asset
July 28, 2022 at 7:40 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 26 Comments
“Many Democrats are cautiously welcoming President Joe Biden on the campaign trail, banking on his assets outweighing his unpopularity in the party’s bid to retain control of both chambers of Congress,” Bloomberg reports.
“A dozen incumbents in tight races told Bloomberg Government they’d embrace the beleaguered leader of their party, albeit with varying degrees of enthusiasm and commitment.”
brutal ad
16 of 17 posts are by Roger and James. Is it any wonder no one posts here anymore? You two assholes have ruined the blog. I hope you're pleased with yourselves.
I will say this, and I regard Roger as a friend.
I think HE should cut back on the post after post of just himself alone.
My posts are for the most part shorter and I think he too should cut back on the volume.
TOO much posting makes us look insecure.
If you believe this is "good economic news "
"Initial jobless claimsJuly 256,000"
You believe This is not The Biden Recession because he told you it isn't.
You think that the people are stupid
I think people who listen to the Biden Administration tell us that the economy is fine (or even good) are "dumb as a rock" stupid.
I give the rest of America credit for being smart enough to decide for themselves how good the economy is. According to consumer sentiment this is the worst economy in a very long time.
From the book The Big Lie.
The election fraud claims became the Big Lie, but there were many (many, many, many) other falsehoods. While it’s tempting to say that Trump told too many lies to count, that’s not accurate since the fact-checkers at the Washington Post did, in fact, tally them. During the president’s four years in office, he uttered 30,573 false and misleading claims, according to the newspaper. That’s 7,643 a year, nearly 21 a day. And those are only the ones he told in public.
There was the time he told reporters on Air Force One that he knew nothing about the payments made to purchase the silence of Stormy Daniels, the porn star with whom Trump had sex. He claimed to have ended Obama’s family separation program when in fact he dramatically grew it and enforced it to draconian levels. He lied repeatedly that Joe Biden’s health care plan eliminated coverage for those with preexisting conditions.
One more time.
It's not politics.
He is the biggest threat to our country in history.
I wouldn't vote for any of the Republicans, because I have a different opinion on governing. But that's how it works and I would say that he or she was fairly elected. And for reasons I can't imagine why you can't see the coldheartedtruth about Trump
He would replace tens thousands of government employees with loyalists.
He a narcissistic self centered person.
Fortunately there are some people are not brainwashed like 🙄
Ot but interesting. People on both sides think this is a good idea 💡
Pelosi’s Taiwan trip plan apparently confirmed by US lawmakers.
WSJ
The U.S. economic recovery is following an unusual trajectory, with weakening output but strong job gains. The unemployment rate, a key barometer of economic health, held steady at a low 3.6% for the past four months, and employers continued to hire at a strong pace. Most economists in a Wall Street Journal survey expect the economy to grow in the third quarter and in 2022 as a whole, though lately they have been dropping their estimates.
“We’re in a sentiment recession. I don’t think we’re in an actual recession. The growth slowdown has been driven by inflation and price shocks—as they fade in the near term, that should allow growth to accelerate,” said Aneta Markowska, chief financial economist at Jefferies. She expects the economy to expand 1.7% this year, measured from the fourth quarter of last year.
So Roger...
You never fell for the Russian collusion hoax and believed that Hillary was the rightful winner and that Trump conspired and would eventually be sent to jail?
Because I have a different recollection of how you perceived the 2016 election results.... and it wasn't you rolling over and accepting Donald Trump as your rightful President and offering him the respect of the position.
And of course... you were never one of those who still believe Al Gore would have won Florida if not for the USSC and that Bush was never the legitimate winner?
Because those are the last two Republican Presidents and I seem to remember you questioned both of their victories...
Hypocrite!
https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-q2-gdp-growth-economy-11658981184?st=t676nq7arnlpzqe&reflink=share_mobilewebshare
You really don't understand me
The Russian scandal actually happen but he has not convicted.
As to Florida, if they had audited again he probably would have been elected but unlike Trump he accepted the a Supreme Court decision.
Richard Nixon chose to concede despite evidence of fraud in Chicago.
Your continuing inability to say that Biden was not elected is a sign of fear and again IED .
You denied the word insurrection from on January 6th Attack.
And again Trump is the most dangerous President in history.
Told ya months ago we are in The Biden administration.
If you believe this is "good economic news "
"Initial jobless claimsJuly 256,000"
You believe This is not The Biden Recession because he told you it isn't
In my lifetime, with the exception of Eisenhower and Nixon and Regan and Bush vs the winner in a landslde the Republican candidate didn't win the popular vote.
You keep saying that he didn't win
Hypocrisy on steroids.
Lmao
Ot but realized how important this is
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/28/doj-jan-6-panel-evidence-sharing-00048457
Sorry Roger...
If you still actually believe the Russian collusion hoax after everything we have found out... and still believe Trump conspired with Putin...
Then I have no more interest in corresponding with you.
anymore than I would correspond with anyone suffering from delusion.
Have fun spamming your threads with nobody responding.
You really have forgotten who you are?
After around twenty years I have seen you changed into a different personality. We all change with age and experience, but unfortunately I really believe that you are mentally ill.
If it is IED, then you need help to delay it, but it will eventually destroy your life and your mind Scott.
So sorry for you 😢
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