A recession is a macroeconomic term that refers to a significant decline in general economic activity in a designated region. It had been typically recognized as two consecutive quarters of economic decline, as reflected by GDP in conjunction with monthly indicators such as a rise in unemployment. However, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which officially declares recessions, says the two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP are not how it is defined anymore. The NBER defines a recession as a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.1
For sake of refreshing memories, we had a first quarter decline of GDP that is now estimated at a negative 1.6%. If this GDP Now prediction holds out and we decline again, then we are officially in a recession, or a Biderecession as some are calling it. Frankly I might place equal blame on Democrats in Congress with the Administration, but we all know Presidents take the brunt in most cases.
Either way, with the Administration still sticking (even within the past week) that there is no chance of a recession and that this is all a hoax from naysayers, things cannot look to good if you are a Democrat. If I was the President at this point, I might try to play this more realistically and admit that we are likely in a recession. At least then I don't look totally stupid as well as economically incompetent if the GDP is solidified as being negative for a second quarter.
As it stands, not only is the economy falling apart, but the people in charge appear to be the only economists in the world who don't actually understand how any of this is working.
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The United States ended a brief recession in April 2020. Since then, the economy has endured ongoing supply chain disruptions, inflation and rising interest rates.
These and other factors are leading many to wonder, are we in another recession? Or if not, are we headed for one?
Are we in a recession?
No, we are not currently in a recession. We look to a committee with the National Bureau of Economic Research, a nonprofit research organization, for the declaration of a recession. The last recession on record in the U.S. took place from February 2020 through April 2020. The NBER has not announced the beginning of another one since. However, it typically requires gathering several months of data to make such an announcement.
Are we headed for a recession in 2022?
Whether there’s a recession coming this year remains a matter of debate. Many experts believe it’s unlikely, but not impossible.
“I’ve got a recession probability of 25% this year and 35% over the next two years,” says Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM US, an audit, tax and consulting service. “There’s some very good things happening right now in the economy apart from the significant inflation challenge that’s at the doorstep of the Federal Reserve.”
https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/finance/are-we-in-a-recession
Unemployment
A rising unemployment rate often signals a recession. We’re not currently experiencing growing joblessness.
“The economy is doing pretty well overall in the sense that jobs are plentiful,” says John Leahy, professor of macroeconomics and public policy at the University of Michigan.
The unemployment rate hovered at 3.6% in May 2022, the lowest it’s been during the pandemic, according to data from the U.S. Department of Labor. For comparison, the unemployment rate peaked at 9.5% during the recession of 2007 to 2009, and jumped from 3.5% to 14.7% during the short-lived 2020 recession
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the unemployment rate peaked at 9.5% during the recession of 2007 to 2009, happened under Bush and the Obama administration had the longest recovery in history.
Yes we are in a recession.
The Fucktard Fed. Res.Chairman Powell.
I think we now understand better how little we understand about inflation,”
Roger...
We had a quarter of negative growth...
The Fed from Atlanta is projecting second quarter will be negative...
That is the only real "objective" standards to determine if we are in a recession... two quarters in a row and everyone will see it as a recession. Plain and simple.
the rest is "subjective" and I suppose someone could still argue that the economy dumping for two quarters in a row (half a year) with runaway inflation that is cause real wage decline and less disposable income.
Is not a recession.. if they so choose.
So someone's "opinion" on the subject today will be irrelevant if the actual second quarter numbers end up negative.... good luck arguing some sort of semantic subjective definition doesn't quite correlate.
Perhaps the Biden Administration can argue that the GDP negative growth is transitory!
Lol 😆 @ Roger's understanding of Economics and personal finance.
Which of them describes you
• Messiahs and Junior Messiahs
• Demonizers
• LOL Nothing Matters Republicans
• Tribalist Trolls
• Strivers
• Little Mixes
• Peter Principle Disprovers
• Nerd Revengers
• The Inert Team Players
• The Compartmentalizers
• Cartel Cashers
It is likely but most of them think it will be fixed soon after.
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It is likely but most of them think it will be fixed soon after.
Most of "who" ???
Are you referring to the same people who said there was no inflation, inflation was good, inflation was transitory, and now suggest that a recession is not likely, and seem to not acknowledge that we already had a full quarter of negative GDP growth?
These same people who are wrong all the time?
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