Could the "red wave" be an illusion?
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| A question many will ponder after last night |
Now there will be much written about these two races for a variety of reasons. I would offer that on paper the Democrats overperformed expectations on the two special elections (19th and 23rd) by a margin that arguably approaches double digits. This is obviously a significant result and hard to ignore (even if it is a special election).
The 19th on paper is a pretty even district (Biden +2) where a good GOP candidate (Molinaro) has been expected to beat a different Democrat in November by a safe margin. He leads in every poll and has lead by as much as eight points in one. But Ryan (a temporary Democrat opponent who will be running in a different district in November) pulled off the upset and it looks like he will win by about 2 points. In the 23rd district, the Republican Sempolinski won as expected. But he is currently leading by 4-5 points in an area that Trump won by 11.
I get that this might not seem like much. A Democrat holding Biden's ground in one district and Republican not living up the Trump numbers in another? But one has to consider that Republicans are supposed to be the ones overperforming, that makes the Democratic results over expectations ever larger.
For Democrats this will add to their narrative that Dobbs changed the game, or that the recent bill changed the game, or that Trump being back in the news changed the game. But regardless of the reason, the narrative will be that Democrats can hold both the Senate and the House (if you consider these results as a harbinger).
For Republicans, these will be bad results with a lot of "yeah buts". I would suspect that they will bring up the tried and true reality that special elections are rarely good indicators of general elections. There is also suggestions that Democratic interest in New York (as a whole) has increased by some pretty big incumbent on incumbent battles going on. Whereas there would be less interest in a special election (that will be reheld in 11 weeks) from the Republican side. I would offer that Democrats (vote more mail in) might be more willing to vote twice in 11 weeks than Republicans would be (vote more in person). Those may be valid points, but they are still excuses for a bad performance.
All that being said, most of the other bellwether indicators that have been watched over the course of the primary season has suggested that the GOP will have at least a "good" mid-term result and some still suggest fairly significant gains. Time will tell and we are only about 11 weeks away.
44 comments:
From what I have seen and read about this.
If this is a first step away from Republicans in August. Like you said it's too early.
But the guy on MSNBC who showed the details, the percentage of suburban voters who used to support Trump are considered about Roe v Wade.
The Democrats have a small chance in the house but it is 11 weeks away 🙄
Plus the President is going to help pay off student debt.
This is what will hurt the red wave 👋
The Biden administration is cancelling up to $20,000 in student debt for Pell Grant recipients, up to $10,000 for individual borrowers who make under $125,000 per year and extending the pause on repayments by four months, the White House announced on Wednesday.
Why it matters: The decision — which comes days before the Aug. 31 deadline, when loan repayments were set to resume after a series of pandemic pauses—is expected to alleviate some of the debt burdens of 43 million Americans while also fulfilling a key campaign promise.
Yep which gives me great hope that the Abortion issue will affect many races in congress!!! Also a Looney bin R got beaten in Florida by a moderate r.....the scary thing is she carried Putnam county, home of the villages a favorite haunt of old extremists!!!!!! Sure wish those old farts would stay out and ruin the states they come from!!!!!!
NY has had the largest population decline of any state in the country. Most of those people who are leaving are republican. They've had enough of what we have become. Many are moving to Florida, which is partly why Florida is turning more red.
Yes, I hope the red wave IS an illusion.
I hope for more than that: I hope we are now on the path to reclaim our nation from the claws of the morbidly rich, as Thom Hartman puts it:
The Claws of the Morbidly Rich are Deeply Sunk into American's Body Politic
The question today is whether we can twist free of them and again become a self-governing nation. Or if we’re doomed to continue to devolve into a full-blown oligarchy.
That last is what Trump and some of his most aware supporters want. The rest mistakenly think he's for them, the middle classes and the lower classes.
He is not. He's cynically misleading them. He's for the super rich, the ultra rich, the --as Hartman says-- the "morbidly rich."
The disgustingly rich.
NY has had the largest population decline of any state in the country. Most of those people who are leaving are republican. They've had enough of what we have become. Many are moving to Florida, which is partly why Florida is turning more red.
Balls is right.
Repubs are leaving NY like the place is on fire. And what used to be a distinct difference between red upstate and blue downstate is less so with the mass exodus of GOPers from UNY. The leftist idiocy is exploding here in NY on a scale never before imagined, leaving sensible folks with no choice but to flee. As recently as two election cycles ago NY-19 was red. Faso lost it and DelGado got in. Since then it's turning to shit.
As an aside with some relevance - Florida purged virtually all woke leftist groomers from their local school boards last night. I would believe that that was influenced to a measurable degree by transplanted NYers.
NY as a whole is becoming a fucking shithole. Sane people are fleeing and idiot leftists remain.
He is not. He's cynically misleading them. He's for the super rich, the ultra rich, the --as Hartman says-- the "morbidly rich."
The disgustingly rich.
None of those categories of "rich" would piss on Trump if he was on fire. You keep peddling this egregious LIE, completely ignoring that the GOP is now the party of the working class, with the hard left the party of the mega-rich.
Who's benefitting from student loan forgiveness pederast?
The rich.
Upper middle class graduate degree holders. NOT those who chose trade school or paid their own way by WORKING their way through college.
Hartmann is a fucking RT Putin STOOGE. Only imbeciles listen to him and believe and peddle his lies.
Aside from all the republican voters leaving ny, it's extremely difficult for a republican to win here. There's just too many democrats. Particularly down state in the nyc area.
This is why national popular vote is a bad idea. We in upstate are at the complete whims of nyc voters.
KD.
Laughing at James.
"It would be better for you to warn everyone not to overpost time after time after time, and not to have long c&p's.,"James
So you and alky need yet another warning ⚠️.
Learn some self control.
Nancy Cook
@nancook
NEW: As Biden weighs a student debt decision, Penn Wharton Budget Model has released its analysis of student loan forgiveness, estimating it will cost bet. $300-$980 billion, w/majority of relief going toward borrowers in top 60% of earners. More on the
@TheTerminal
https://twitter.com/nancook/status/1562066995734011905?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1562066995734011905%7Ctwgr%5Ed14bcfd219df878e1afd9a774b8d0bb392803e56%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdirectorblue.blogspot.com%2F
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This is why national popular vote is a bad idea. We in upstate are at the complete whims of nyc voters.
Absolutely.
And the ultimate irony to that is that if we had a state-level Electoral College, NY would have an excellent chance of electing a GOP Governor.
KD.
Roger is always spectacularly wrong.
Always.
"Plus the President is going to help pay off student debt."
No, he transferred debt to the US National Debt.
NAACP said it was not enough, college debt hurts black women the most.
Roger,tell us in your own words where does the $300 Billion Pres. Biden just spent on Student Debt Transfer?
Public school teachers have gone all “woke” on their students.
We need to get rid of tax paid teachers and public schools.
Trump University was destroyed by the Deep state and federal investigators because they hated the greatest economic growth in history until the Chinese Virus and the DNC fake crisis
We shall see Scott 👀.
A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that President Biden’s job-approval rating has shot up 5 percentage points since early August — its largest and most sudden change to date.
The president’s disapproval number, meanwhile, has fallen by 3 percentage points. Never before has Biden’s overall rating shifted that much in a matter of weeks.
The survey of 1,563 U.S. adults, which was conducted from Aug. 18 to Aug. 22, comes amid a run of good news for Biden and Democrats — a list that includes plummeting gas prices, the killing of a top al-Qaeda leader and the recent passage of landmark climate legislation paired with a popular plan to lower prescription drug prices. Biden’s improving numbers likely reflect these developments. (The president subsequently announced that his administration would cancel $10,000 in student-loan debt for Americans earning $125,000 or less per year.)
If this trend continues the House majority might keep Nancy Pelosi in charge
FYI. 3,712 days one day at a time.
This could keep the house majority in November
Biden just canceled $10,000 Biden just canceled $10,000 in student debt for federal borrowers making under $125,000 a year student debt for federal borrowers making under $125,000 a year
How can the ultra rich be benefitting from student loan forgiveness when it cuts off at only $10,000 and is only for those making less than... what was it?$120,000 a year. The ultra rich millionaires and billionaires make a whole lot more than that.
“What should be most worrying for Republicans is that NY-19 is the kind of district they need to win to have any chance of rolling up big numbers in November. With few Democrats sitting in Trump districts, Republicans’ success depends on picking off Democrats in CD’s Biden carried by six points or less. Not that long ago, that looked feasible.”
The best way for Democrats to see these results is to recognize it’s still a challenge and will take every bit of energy and commitment but that holding the House is really doable. So it’s not remotely wasted energy.
Enthusiasm and respect matters
How can the ultra rich be benefitting from student loan forgiveness
Is someone making the argument that it is the "ultra-rich"?
The argument I hear (and I have heard it all over the place) is that the people who cannot afford college (or believe that they can afford the loans) are ultimately being asked to pay for the loans of those who are going to school to become doctors, attorneys, engineers, etc...
So in essence the high school graduate blue collar worker will be paying more in taxes to subsidize someone who (over the course of their lifetime) will make exponential more money than the student loan debt.
But I get it Reverend...
Some of us worked two jobs to finance college and even though I make good money today, doesn't mean I should be required to pay for someone else who decided "not" to work through college, but to just take out loans.
It's personal responsibility.
Not a concept most liberals appreciate.
Fucking pisses me off, i got my kids through school with no debt and now get to pay loans for a fucking sociology major
Blogger Coldheartedtruth Teller said...
This could keep the house majority in November
Right.
This goes to show just how stupid and ignorant democrat voters are. Over-eager to accept an unconstitutional promise - a promise that even Nancy Peloshee says FJB does not possess the authority to make. It's a fucking BRIBE to the dumbest fucks among us. You included alky.
So it's Charlie Brown, Lucy and the football time. And all those poor stupid fucks who worship at the altar of leftist idiocy can prepare for a galactic disappointment.
Good one alky.
Roger...
Keep in mind that the GOP did not lose NT-19 - the election between different candidates is happening in November. This was a special election to hold the seat for that period of time. The Democrat who won will no longer be eligible to even hold that seat.
It is very likely that many people might have sat this out due to the fact that they will be voting on it again in 11 weeks. There was obviously much more Democratic interest in the overall primary (big names going against each other) than there were for Republicans.
Again... not a good result for Republicans on paper. But I wouldn't take this result at face value if I was a Democrat either.
Biden up five points in recent poll.
And we had five 1,000 year flood events in the last few weeks.
And when I told how it is not the ultra rich who are befitting from student loan forgiveness,
Ch asked,
Is someone making the argument that it is the "ultra-rich"?
And I answer,
Yes, rat is. At 11:50.
There he asked:
Who's benefitting from student loan forgiveness pederast?
and answered by saying,
The rich.
_____
Demonstrating that he understands neither about the rich nor about pederasty.
I agree but the student debt relief plan could make the difference
The bottom line is that for both parties, the ground remains shaky and unpredictable. The best strategy for both parties is to hope for the best and plan for the worst.
Student debt relief is big 🙏
I left graduate school in '64 with a debt of about $6,300 (when adjusted for today's inflation).
.
Slowly but surely I regularly I paid it all back.
And got a thankful and congratulatory letter for doing so.
We already know that working class voters significantly moved to the gop last election. Bidens new debt write-off plan will seriously push the rest of them to the republican party. Those voters are mad as hell about the plan.
Again... not a good result for Republicans on paper. But I wouldn't take this result at face value if I was a Democrat either.
Turn out was pathetic because everyone with a clue knew the seat was going away via re-districting.
Only an imbecile who fancies himself a political prognosticator sees NY-19 as a harbinger for November.
Off topic but I remember when I used them with friends in The Black Hills of South Dakota. We laughed so hard that our jaws hurt the next morning.
Magic mushroom' psychedelic may help heavy drinkers quit
The compound in psychedelic mushrooms helped heavy drinkers cut back or quit entirely in the most rigorous test of psilocybin for alcoholism
We shall see 👀
Democrats’ hope that the fight for abortion rights would drive turnout got another boost on Tuesday, with Pat Ryan, the Ulster County executive, winning a special election in New York’s 19th District after he made the issue a centerpiece of his campaign.
Roe v Wade should be the centerpiece in November
This is why national popular vote is a bad idea. We in upstate are at the complete whims of nyc voters.
BWAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!! Sure ball less.....I guess some peoples votes like white supremiscists count more than others!!!!!!!!! Patently racists and neither of you assholes sees that as a problem!!!!!
Democrats’ hope that the fight for abortion rights would drive turnout got another boost on Tuesday, with Pat Ryan, the Ulster County executive, winning a special election in New York’s 19th District after he made the issue a centerpiece of his campaign.
Another example of galactic democrat stupidity.
Abortion has been codified into the NYS Constitution. Cuomo got that done a few years back before he got fired for playing grab-ass. Only a FUCKING MORON* thinks the abortion issue helps democrats in NY.
Abortion has no greater safe-space than the State of New York.
*h/t: Indy Voter
Rat - you might be overestimating the intelligence levels of NY Democratic voters.
- you might be overestimating the intelligence levels of NY Democratic voters.
BWAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!! While you certainly overestimate the intellect of the GOP who wants women to live in the dark ages with your esoteric stand to make them walk 5 steps behind you!!!!!!!!! You christian radical nationalists wanting all to live the pious life is disgusting!!!!!
You guess maybe a lot of New Yorkers will vote Dem "just to be safe" on the abortion issue?
“About two dozen boxes of presidential records stored in then-president Donald Trump’s White House residence were not returned to the National Archives and Records Administration in the final days of his term even after Archives officials were told by a Trump lawyer that the documents should be returned,” the Washington Post reports.
Reverend...
Why the off topic cut and paste on a subject that you have cut and pasted to death without any fundamental understanding of the issue.
According to the 1978 Presidential act
AND THE 1988 USSC DECISION
The President - not the National Archives or an attorney - The POTUS. The CIC. The President... nobody else...
has the sole authority to determine what is and is not Presidential records.
You do understand that, correct?
Because if you do and are still posting this... I would like YOU (not some cut and paste) to tell my why the 1978 Presidential act or the USSC is wrong?
Moreover the dispute with the National Archives is not criminal and the FBI has no business getting involved in such a dispute. So not sure what this silly cut and paste shows...
other than your inability to do what you keep promising you would do if given an open forum. Not spam off topic subjects.
Now please, please, please, please, pretty please...
Pretty please with sugar on top!
Can you stop spamming off topic cut and pastes?
Blogger C.H. Truth said...
Rat - you might be overestimating the intelligence levels of NY Democratic voters.
Perhaps. Although the smart ones are already gone. Those who remain like myself do so purely out of family obligations, and when we close the casket lid on that last family member, I'm gone before the grass begins to sprout on the grave.
Blogger Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...
You guess maybe a lot of New Yorkers will vote Dem "just to be safe" on the abortion issue?
Yeah, that's it pederast. Thanks for making my point. If you're a NYer and it's the abortion issue that is your motivating issue to vote dem, then you are among the dumbest fucks who walk the earth and you deserve to suffer and die here at the hands of the democrat politicians who've fucking destroyed the place.
Eric Adams was 'proud' to run for NYC Mayor on the brag that NYC is a sanctuary city. Well, the illegal beaners are arriving around the clock by the fucking bus load. and Guess who's crying fould?
Oh, and on the 'rich' getting relief from the student loan fucking for the rest of the taxpayers... I know plenty of folks making just under the $125,000 threshold who will get the relief, and if you talk to any blue collar NYer who's making in the $40's, $50's, and $60's, those folks are rich as fuck. Upper middle class all the way. Sons and daughters of doctors and lawyers and investment bankers.
Slow Joe just got YOU to pay for them, you dumb bastard.
Ht I went to the gym today by my self 🙃
Good for you Alky, was the gym on a different floor in your locked down facility.
The rest of us here come and go as we please and it’s not worthy of a fucking post. It’s LIVING LIFE
I went to Costco earlier in our 2021 Lexus, you?
Having a boys weekend this week in Cleveland GA on the Chattahoochee and I don’t need permission
Fucking pathetic
President Biden emphatically denied Wednesday that he had any advance notice of the Federal Bureau of Investigation search conducted at the Florida home of former President Donald Trump that turned up hundreds of pages of highly classified documents.
At the conclusion of a White House event detailing Biden's plan to cancel student loan debt for some Americans, a Fox News reporter asked the president, "How much advance notice did you have of the FBI's plan to search Mar-a-Lago?"
"I didn't have any advance notice — none, zero, not one single bit. Thank you," Biden responded.
President Biden emphatically denied Wednesday that he had any advance notice of the Federal Bureau of Investigation search conducted at the Florida home of former President Donald Trump that turned up hundreds of pages of highly classified documents.
Biden then proceeded to fall over, shit himself and ask for ice cream.
I get the affinity you have for the geriatric, neither of you know what day it is, where you are or how you got there.
It’s like the old Talking Heads Song
And you may ask yourself, "How do I work this?"
And you may ask yourself, "Where is that large automobile?"
And you may tell yourself, "This is not my beautiful house"
And you may tell yourself, "This is not my beautiful wife"
LOL
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