About Roy Moore IV

A new poll was released today by Opinion Savvy that was taken entirely after the scandal broke. Of those participating only 9% said they had not heard about the allegations against Roy Moore. Of course, had they not heard up to that point, they were certainly informed that those allegations existed during the questioning.

The results showed:

Moore - 46.4%
Jones - 46.0%

The previous survey from this pollster showed Moore ahead 50-45 meaning that the support for Moore dropped between 3-4% while the support for Jones went up only 1%.  This isn't too far off from what I figured we would see. Obviously any traditional October surprise shows a bigger "initial" impact than a long term one... which is why these scandals generally pop up in the last two or three weeks. Enough time so everyone hears about it, but not enough time for people to forget about it.

One thing to consider is that two other polls taken around the same time as the first 50-45 Opinion Savvy poll was taken showed Moore up 22% and 8%  - meaning the Opinion Savvy poll was more favorable to Jones at that time than others.

I would expect (assuming no other shoes drop on Moore between now and then) that the allegations are "recoverable" for him. It may not be the cakewalk he once expected, and of course he could still lose (funny things happen in special elections)... but based on what this poll is showing, Moore probably remains a slight favorite.