The real tension and drama is happening in College football, where the positioning over the next couple of weeks is going to provide for more opinions and opinion shifting than Carter has liver pills.
Let's start with this. The best four teams won't always get into the playoffs, nor should they. If your belief is that college football (unlike any other sport) should replace winning games when it counts with computer stats or sportswriter opinions, then why have a football playoff to begin with?
In the general overall sports world... there are always going to be teams playing well that miss the playoffs, teams that are favored that lose right off the bat in the playoff, and teams that get on a roll and win the whole thing after just squeaking in. This is part of the beauty of sports. Think low seed Cinderella stories in the NCAA basketball tourney or years where a Wild Card won the Super Bowl. Winning when it counts is ultimately what winning really is. Nobody suggests that a first round seed should get a second chance if they lose early, simply because they had some big wins earlier on.
This is why I strongly believe that if you lose your conference championship game, then you simply should not move forward. It's also why I strongly believe that every conference needs to have such a game. There simply isn't "enough" separation between the top few teams (or the power conferences) to give one team a "second chance" just because opinion writers believed they had a better season.
You have five so called "Power conferences" and every year there seems to be a team like Notre Dame (or some undefeated none-power conference team) that is lurking around the top. With only four spots in the playoffs, I find it hard to justify half of those teams coming from one conference. It simply leaves out too much of the country.
Now there are situations (as what happened a few years back with the National Championship Buckeye team) where the best team in a power conference didn't play in a conference championship (where tie breaking rules determined the seeding). But there was not two Big Ten teams in the playoffs that year. Ohio State replaced the conference champion and that made sense.
In fact there has not been two team from the same conference yet. While many from the SEC might disagree with the logic, I say why start now?
As it stands, two loss Notre Dame is close but no cigar. Without a conference championship game to bolster things, they seem out. Same with USC and the Pac Twelve. With two losses and no high ranked opponent to play in their conference championship, there doesn't appear to be a way to leapfrog the teams necessary.
That leaves the SEC, ACC, Big Twelve, and Big Ten. Without a conference championship and assuming Oklahoma wins out, they should be in. Clemson and Miami will play the last conference game of the year, so even if they do not meet in the conference championship, there is a manner to settle this. One will be in and one will be out.
Where the controversy will come is with the SEC and the Big Ten. The SEC has three teams with a legitimate chance at still winning the league championship, leaving two possibilities for a one loss Alabama team - a loss to Auburn would knock them out the conference championship game or they could beat Auburn and lose to Georgia in the conference championship game... not coming out with a conference championship. Assuming whoever wins the conference championship is in, do you leave Alabama out?
If an undefeated Wisconsin team were to beat a two loss Ohio State team in the Big Ten playoffs, then few would be able to justify a one loss Alabama team displacing them. The optics of a national championship playoffs not including an undefeated Big Ten Champion would forever taint the system. But what happens (and it's probably more likely than not) "if" Ohio State Jekyll and Hyde's their way to a Big Ten championship (possibly with a dominating performance like they put on over Michigan State). Does the two loss Big Ten Champion displace the previously number one team or do you leave out another power conference champion in order to make way for two SEC teams?
I know it's not necessarily a popular opinion within College Football fans, but winning games down the stretch, when they count, is more important to me than computer rankings, sportswriter rankings, or general opinions. Settle it on the field. The three SEC teams seem to have their destiny in their own hands. Anyone of the three can win out and take the conference championship. If they lose, then they lose. You had your chance. Now let another conference champion take a shot at your champion.
16 comments:
'It Just Means More'
I love Football and have watch by far more college football this year then any other 5 years combined. My teams suck, but, I still love the big Dawg, Go Dawbs.
Woof, woof, woof
No two loss team is going to make it to the playoff this year so say bye bye to Notre Dame and the Pac 10-12.
Wisconsin will get the node from the Big 10.
I think Georgia has a good chance of knocking off Alabama for the SEC this year and Clemson will beat Miami.
So it's going to be Georgia, Clemson, Wisconsin and Oklahoma.
Anytime the topic of PLAYOFFS comes up we have to give a tip of the hat to Mu
So Common - what happens if Wisconsin loses in the Big Ten Championship?
Watching both teams, I would venture Ohio State to be a 10 point favorite or more.
You can't put Wisconsin ahead of a team they lose to??
All hell will break lose. Ohio State is still a two loss team. If Wisconsin gets pass the Gophers (yeah stranger things have happened) they would still be a one loss team.
They could still pick Ohio State because one of those losses was to Oklahoma early.
But I'm betting Wisconsin has the better team this year.
They beat Iowa while Iowa creamed Ohio State.
Ohio State just ran up 524 yards and beat MSU the #13 team (at the time) 48-3 .
They also ran up 529 yards and beat Penn State the #2 team (at the time) with three fourth quarter TDs.
When Barrett is playing well, they can beat anyone. I would guess they open as a favorite against Wisconsin (assuming they win the West).
Keep in mind, too... Iowa's losses are to Penn State, MSU, Wisconsin (all ranked teams) and 7-3 Northwestern on the road. Iowa is a tough place to win for anyone. The Buckeyes and the Nitt Lions both seemed to have a hangover after that game.
With Wisconsin at 10-0 there is something to be said about consistency.
Fearless Projection:
Clemson vs Georgia
Wisconsin vs. Oklahoma.
NCG:
Wisconsin vs. Georgia
National Champion:
Georgia
This of course could all blow up next week.
What I find interesting... is that when the conference season started, there were four Big Ten teams in the top ten and three of them in the top six...
Now there is none in the top four and only two in the top ten?
It seems whenever a top tier big ten team loses to a medium tier team, the top team loses ranking, but the medium tier team remains about the same.
How is it that according to the rankings... everyone in the Big Ten just get worse as the conference schedule goes no. Nobody moves up?
But if a mid tier SEC team wins a couple of big conference games, they move up in the rankings... while the top teams pretty much stay in the top few spots (even after losses).
Very odd.
Well right now three of the top ten are from the SEC and three are from the Big 10.
But I will concede the fact that writers are giving Alabama and Auburn too much love.
I think that is just to hype their game.
If there are no upsets/chokes before the championship games, you're looking at the ACC champ, the SEC champ, Oklahoma, and one other team in the playoffs. Could be a 1-loss Alabama, Miami, or Wisconsin. Could be a 2-loss Clemson or Georgia. All of those are more likely than a 0-loss UCF getting an invitation, IMO.
But if there are more upsets/chokes in the next couple of weeks, it will get messy. Auburn beats Alabama? Tide doesn't get to the conference championship but probably makes the national tournament. Oklahoma loses to West Virginia? Hard to avoid a 2-loss team in the tournament then. Wisconsin loses to Michigan? Hard to justify any Big Ten team making the tournament then. Clemson loses to South Carolina but wins the ACC championship handily? Hard to pick them with two losses, but hard to pick 1-loss Miami either.
AP top 25 has Wisconsin at 5 and Ohio State at 8. Penn State is at 13.
Indy -
How about this very realistic situation
Oklahoma wins out - TCU is a non-champion two loss team
Alabama wins out - Georgia is a non champion two loss team, and Auburn has three losses in the SEC.
Miami wins out - Clemson is a non champion two loss team in the ACC
Ohio State wins out - Wisconsin is a non champion one loss team
You have to take Oklahoma, Alabama, and Miami.
Is your fourth team Wisconsin, even though they just lost to Ohio State (just because they have only one loss?) Do you bypass a two loss Big Ten Champion for a different two loss non-champion team?
You would take Ohio State. All things being equal late loses count more than early loses.
However Ohio State must win the Big Ten championship.
It's still a Longshot for Ohio State to get in. They are in 9th place and need to move up five places. They pretty much need to run up the score on Michigan and then beat Wisconsin, and still get help.
Barring any chokes this weekend, the playoffs will have the ACC and SEC champion, and Oklahoma, plus one other team. Presuming OSU does it's job, they would be competing against a either a 1-loss Miami team or a 2-loss Clemson team, and possibly also a 1-loss Alabama team and/or a 2-loss Georgia team, as well as a 1-loss Wisconsin team. I think they would pass both Wisconsin and Georgia in the standings this case, and quite possibly Clemson (unless the ACC championship goes into overtime). Passing Alabama or Miami is more difficult, unless one of them gets blown out.
The best case for OSU getting in if it wins out is for both Alabama and Miami to remain undefeated. If either loses (and it's not a blowout) that team may well remain ahead of OSU. The worst case for OSU would be if Auburn and Clemson win their respective conferences.
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