Tuesday, December 12, 2017

Jones wins Alabama

Senate now 51-49

Jones - 49.7
Moore - 48.6

70 comments:

PNC said...

And so, like Scott Brown's victory in deep blue Massachusetts, Jones' victory in Alabama is likely to have similar repercussions (plus some others owing to the nature of the current climate within the GOP).

Democrats will be energized. Finally, after several false alarms in House races, and a couple of quite frankly predictable gubernatorial victories, they've finally succeeded in flipping a Senate seat. "It can be done!" will be the message going out to donors and activists tomorrow morning.

The Democrats' cheerleaders in the media are likely to overstate the implications, ignoring that Moore was a tremendously flawed candidate, and omitting to mention that Republicans cannot be expected to nominate sex offenders in every race.

Expect the RNC and Republicans up for reelection to freak out anyway. Expect their voices to drown out the "no big deal" / "it was an outlier" crowd.

This race was EXPENSIVE for the Democrats. It will take a lot of funding to match this victory in multiple states in 2018. However, victory often begets fundraising windfalls, so the Democrats may end up with the cash they need.

Passing bills in the Senate just got harder. At least for the next year.

The Republican tax / debt expansion bill is not likely to be in jeopardy, but there will be some cold feet all of a sudden.

Expect the Republicans to try to stall on seating Jones, and the Democrats to demand his immediate seating.

What passes for the "responsible" Republicans these days will have to explain to the American people how they (at the last minute, while the polls showed Moore winning) and what passes for the leader of their party these days, backed a child molester who was a bridge too far even for redder-than-blood Alabama.

Democrats will do plenty of campaigning on just that fact. Expect the words "out of touch" to be uttered pretty frequently over the next year.

PNC said...


The alt-right and the Trumpist crowd will blame everyone but themselves (who insisted on trying to force Moore down Alabama's throat in spite of better advice from smarter people). Expect still more whining about the "establishment", and expect to hear the word "sabotage" being thrown around.

McConnell will become even more hated.

Someone, somewhere, will claim voter fraud. In Alabama. Ha.

The alt-right will aim some of their fury at Ivanka Trump (who made the "special place in hell" remark and gave Jones some powerful material for campaign ads). Expect a not-unremarkable portion of this rage to be openly anti-Semitic as the alt-right shows its true colors.

Lots of rank-and-file Republicans and semi-soft-Trumpists will suddenly claim that they were against Moore in the first place. This will especially come from those who supported Moore through conspicuous silence or euphemism. It will be a full time job keeping them accountable.

Some right-wing evangelicals who voted for Moore are likely to feel some serious guilt and shame over their vote in the next few days--feelings they will not be able to simply soothe with the fact of a Republican, pro-life "values" vote in the Senate. The "Christian Right" is overdue for some serious soul-searching, and we may see some first steps in the coming weeks. The "court evangelicals", however, whose influence is 100% dependent on Trump and his base, will merely dig in.

Results generally fell right smack dab between the two polling extremes (Moore +9, Jones +10, etc.). Expect a lot of discussion about where polls went wrong, with the end result of nobody knowing any more about the art and science of polling than before.

I'm predicting the House will flip to the Democrats in 2018.

The Senate will remain under Republican control. The deadlock will be similar to the state of Congress in 2011-2012. Trump will be a lame duck for the rest of this term.

In fact, Alabama Republicans are likely to nominate someone with less baggage (perhaps Brooks or Strange again), and that person will probably defeat an incumbent Jones in 2018.

Congressional deadlock will be similar to 2011-2012. Trump will be a lame duck for the rest of this term.

This says very little about 2020, although it does say Trump would lose if he was running for reelection in 2017.

Expect several 2020 election polls pitting Doug Jones against Trump in the not-too-distant future.

Commonsense said...

Now Al Franken gets to keep his seat.

Anonymous said...

Yep, all couched it so he can stay and he will.

This is a huge swamp win for both the Dims and Replusives.

Anonymous said...

Does he know that Jones has a six year term? " HB

Tell us , how you're right and the President of the United States of America is WRONG.

James said...

BLACK VOTES MATTER.

Commonsense said...

Donald J. Trump‏Verified account
@realDonaldTrump
Following Following @realDonaldTrump
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The reason I originally endorsed Luther Strange (and his numbers went up mightily), is that I said Roy Moore will not be able to win the General Election. I was right! Roy worked hard but the deck was stacked against him!


Over and above the questionable allegations Roy Moore stacked the deck against himself.

Commonsense said...

Yes, black turn-out helped Jones.

James said...

tIME FOR THE gOP TO STRT TRYING TO GET SOME BLACK VOTES.

Anonymous said...

With Americans with black colored skin are waking up to a job and to living in a home they own, don't worry about the GOP Jane, that kind of unchaining leads to voting Republican.

Will those woman against Moore go away or bring criminal Charges?

Are those woman like , BLM, Occupy Wall Street and AntiFa, useful idiots exploded by Dems for purely political gain?

Commonsense said...

May not be as hard as you think. There are already a lot of black conservatives in Trump's coalition.

And Charles Barkley just told Democrats to "get off their ass and help black people".

Commonsense said...

Will those woman against Moore go away or bring criminal Charges?

No, all of those accusations against Moore will magically disappear.

They served their purpose.

Commonsense said...

That being said, the Republican secretary of state should slow-walk the certification of the election even ordering a recount of selected precincts.

Anonymous said...


Sheila Jackson Lee

@JacksonLeeTX18

Sweet home Alabama. Thank you Alabamians and Doug Moore. Good has prevailed and our country is on the way to a new day #ikneel

10:48 PM - Dec 12, 2017

James said...

Get over it. Your pedophile candidate lost.

Anonymous said...

James , no one here has a thing to "Get Over".

But, you're such a dim bulb you can't see it.

We have been around you for years, we know you don't debate , you blather. SO I will just roll past your posts because of the pure and simple meaninglessness of them, that is unless there is a old "NEWLEAFJAMES:, remember when you took on that Moniker, I do.


Tell us why did black home ownership do so poorly during the lost years and yet now is showing a uptick under the Slave Owners of the Trump Clan?

Commonsense said...

Lord James, unlike Democrats we accept the decision of the Alabama voters.

But considered this: In an election where the GOP candidate made racially insensitive statements, was accused of pedophillia, and abandoned by his own party, the Democrat only won by 1 point.

I wouldn't take this as a harbinger of things to come.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous James said...
Get over it. Your pedophile candidate lost.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


now there's possibly the greatest example of the pot calling the kettle black we will see in 2017.

some would call that chutzpah, pederast.

Commonsense said...

I will say this, despite the hope of GOPe senators, Moore's loss won't change the Democrats strategy one iota.

They will still use the "war on women troup" until it backfires on them badly.

(Apparently Hillary's loss wasn't bad enough.)

Indy Voter said...

Doug Moore?

Commonsense said...

Jackson's on a roll.

commie said...

, unlike Democrats we accept the decision of the Alabama voters.

Sure except for moore who has not conceded and said it was not over yet....Yer an idiot...

Commonsense said...

So Dennis agrees with me and then calls me an idiot.

It makes you wonder.

commie said...

So Dennis agrees with me and then calls me an idiot.

So ignoring moore not accepting the decision makes your comment smart....just makes it idiotic as usual Mc Pea Brain

commie said...

Great headline in today's paper, Mc Pea Brain, very applicable to you....LOLOL at you again


http://www.nydailynews.com

Anonymous said...

Madam oPie, I awoke to a nice crisp 26 degree morning, frost outside and inside the house was a toasty 70, that is the night time temp I keep the house using my modern wood burning furnace, so great, little in the ways of bills for that wood. 10 or so years ago I partnered with a local Arborist. He needed a place to dispose of limbs and trunks of trees and I need the wood, why cut down my own, I mean really. Up that point most of the wood went to the land fill, so I save the land fill, he saves on the cost of the transfer fees at the local multi-purpose dump . Winning the environmental game many times over.

Commonsense said...

So ignoring moore not accepting the decision makes your comment smart.

Moore lost. I ignore him like I ignore Hillary Clinton.

They're both losers.

Anonymous said...

Indy Voter said...
Doug Moore?
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


yup.

spoken by the genius who keeps getting returned to the house by black voters who are simply "too smart" to vote republican.


Commonsense said...

However the voters of Alabama will find out whether it was worth it to allow a man who is an anathema to everything they believe in to become their senator.

Anonymous said...

Educating the left everyday.

use this to post a link, you dumb ass .

How to properly post a link

Anonymous said...



like ed koch used to say...

"the people have spoken, and now they must be punished."


btw, i think james carville deserves some credit here, albeit a few decades too late.

we finally got to see, courtesy of jeff bozo's and the WaPo, what happens when you really do drag a $100 bill through a trailer park.

Indy Voter said...

That guy lost.

Oh, wait, are you saying Alabamans believe men in their thirties should be cruising malls for 14-year old girls?

Anonymous said...

CS, HB believes Jones gets 6 years then he has to run for Senate again.

commie said...

I awoke to a nice crisp 26 degree morning, frost outside and inside the house was a toasty 70

Call someone who cares asshole.....you choose to live in the arctic, not me....LOL I even care less about how you steal wood. Still looking for proof your wood burning is not bad for your health.....idiot...Keep rationalizing, it is fun to make fun of you...LOLOL

commie said...

How to properly post a link

Yer a genius....LOL

Commonsense said...

CS, HB believes Jones gets 6 years then he has to run for Senate again.

He's wrong. Jones stands for election again in 2020.

It will be a presidential year but I don't think it will help him all that much.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Trump backed the loser in the Alabama Republican Senate runoff. And, in the past two weeks, he threw his full support behind the man who lost in the Alabama Senate general election. Bannon ducked and covered when the press tried to ask him questions.

The Republican party of Trump has suffered two embarrassing defeats in the two recent special elections. Alabama is especially important, because the deep red state that Trump won handily in 2016. The Democrats have a difficult task in off year elections. The coalition of the educated white women, minorities and the young voters is going to be difficult to work nation wide. But we have to understand the importance of this President. If the Democrats are able to make him the (enemy), in much of the country the opportunity is there.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

I corrected the error.

But you support the President who has been very good at giving the Democrats isn't going very well.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

My early morning grammar sucks.

LOL

Commonsense said...

I think the Democrats hubris is going to be something to behold.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

This is the headline of The Wall Street Journal.

Democrat Jones Captures Alabama Seat.

Weakening Republicans’ Hold on Senate


Democrat Doug Jones of Alabama scored an upset win in a deeply Republican state, capturing the U.S. Senate seat here in a special election that drove a wedge within the Republican party and gave Democrats another burst of momentum ahead of the 2018 midterm races

commie said...

I think the Democrats hubris is going to be something to behold.

Yep....as trump blames everyone but himself...I especially liked the blame he heaped on the voters who wrote in a name, which if all voted for moore, would have changed the outcome....LOL again at you menstral

Anonymous said...

Will Jones reach (which means vote with Republicans) across the isle?

He promised.

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

Jones is the first Democrat that Alabamians have sent to the U.S. Senate in more than two decades. His pending arrival in the nation’s capital will trim the GOP’s Senate majority from 52-48 to 51-49, loosening the Republicans’ grip on power in the chamber after a year of struggling to give Mr. Trump’s agenda a legislative boost. The GOP attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act failed earlier this year by one vote because of defections within its own ranks.

The Jones victory puts the Democrats one seat closer to picking up a majority in the Senate in the 2018 midterm elections. They had needed a net gain of three seats to get to 51 seats, a target that had been hard for them to envision reaching. But after the Jones win, they only need a net gain of two seats, and there are two GOP seats ripe for flipping—in Arizona and Nevada.

The special election was held for the seat that was held by Jeff Sessions, the Republican who left the Senate to become Mr. Trump’s attorney general.

Mr. Trump had endorsed Mr. Moore, albeit after first endorsing primary rival Sen. Luther Strange. Mr. Moore’s loss raises questions about the power of the president’s political coattails. Mr. Trump campaigned close to the Alabama border in Pensacola, Fla., last Friday and called on voters to back Mr. Moore to help push his agenda forward.

The president posted a tweet Tuesday night congratulating Mr. Jones on “a hard fought victory,” he said. “The people of Alabama are great, and the Republicans will have another shot at this seat in a very short period of time.”

I know how to post a link but I just don't want to..

https://www.wsj.com/articles/republicans-look-beyond-alabama-senate-race-1513124366

The Democrats are not stupid. They face a challenge to build and sustain a coalition strong enough to win control of the congress and the Presidency. But the era of Trump has provided them with an opportunity of historic proportions.

commie said...

He promised.

Trump promised to drain the swamp? How's that going????

Coldheartedtruth Teller said...

A president who'd all but call a senator a whore is unfit to clean toilets in Obama's presidential library or to shine George W. Bush's shoes: or like balls who drinks W's bath water.

Commonsense said...

All politicians are whores.

If you want to be equal to a man then take your political abuse like a man and stop hiding behind your sex every time someone criticizes you.

Anonymous said...

Look all these pissed off liberals.

wphamilton said...

Two things about the early exit polls caught my attention

1. Women believed that the allegations against Moore were True by a 20% margin. Yet they voted for Jones by a 15% margin. So that other 5% ... didn't care.

2. 80% of the Republicans voting for Moore said their primary reason was to support Trump. That "feels" like a significant number - it could mean that Trump has coattails, and can actually help get people elected. On the other hand, his candidate lost in the primary, and then backing Moore his candidate again lost. In Alabama.

So I think that in those voters' minds, "support Trump" was synonymous with "voting for a Republican" and didn't literally have much to do with Trump specifically. In other words 80% were knee-jerk votes without regard to scandals, issues, qualifications, or any of the other choices given. Which is encouraging for Republicans unless ... they take it seriously and go all in on campaigning for the Trump vote.

wphamilton said...

Ah, given the relatively large Black turnout, Moore's proud opinion that the days of Slavery were America's greatest may have been the last straw after all.

Anonymous said...

Well, thanks for asking.

Epa boxed up like ISIS.

Anonymous said...

Warren called that senator a slu.
Hb, get current.

Anonymous said...

Slut

Commonsense said...

Ah, given the relatively large Black turnout, Moore's proud opinion that the days of Slavery were America's greatest may have been the last straw after all.

It didn't help. Especially after Jones racially insensitive ad. (Which will come back and haunt him in 2020.)

All Moore had to do was shut up and the black turnout wouldn't have been as great.

commie said...

Liar and still asshole from kansas posted......

Warren called that senator a slu.

Idiot beyond his years....LOLOLOL

Commonsense said...

Actually that's true even though it was accidental.

(Or maybe not so accidental. Remember, Warren is a rival for the Democrat nomination in 2020.)

Commonsense said...

BTW Bet Hillary thinks Gillibrand is a slut after the way she threw her and Bill under the bus.

Anonymous said...

Blogger Commonsense said...
All politicians are whores.

If you want to be equal to a man then take your political abuse like a man and stop hiding behind your sex every time someone criticizes you.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


precisely.

apply trump's tweet to any male politician and there are no pearls to clutch or fainting couches to collapse upon.

gillibrand didn't have a thing to say about carlos danger until it was politically expedient to do so.

she didn't call for franken to resign until 7, or was it 8, women accusers came forward.

she was more than happy to ride the big dog's coattails until it was safe to throw him under the bus.

fauxcohontas nailed it. she's a slut. just like her mother.

Commonsense said...

1. Women believed that the allegations against Moore were True by a 20% margin. Yet they voted for Jones by a 15% margin. So that other 5% ... didn't care.

Not surprising. Trump got elected in large part because women didn't believe or didn't care about the accusations against Trump.

It's been my experience (contrary to conventional wisdom) that that other women are far more skeptical and far less sympathetic to the accusers than other men.

2. 80% of the Republicans voting for Moore said their primary reason was to support Trump. That "feels" like a significant number - it could mean that Trump has coattails, and can actually help get people elected. On the other hand, his candidate lost in the primary, and then backing Moore his candidate again lost. In Alabama.

That tells me the support for Moore came only from hardcore Trump supporters.

Republican who lightly supported Trump or don't support Trump at all stayed at home or voted for somebody else.

wphamilton said...

Possibly, but there may also be problems with the exit poll data.

My own theory is that once a decision is made and acted on, human nature is to invent the reasoning after the fact, to put ourselves in the most respectable light possible. It's not conscious but we all do it. So I take it with a grain of salt. I still thought it was interesting however.

Anonymous said...

It is up to Us conservatives to educate the left on what is being said in thier own party.

Anonymous said...

Did Al Franken actual resign the power of his office yet?

Has the need for him to do so passed?

Commonsense said...

No and Yes.

Anonymous said...

Thinking the same.

This would a fantatic coup IF he stays.

Anonymous said...

Mr. Yellen will raise rate, pushing hard to drive up US National Debt, personal debt and raising the cost of money on small business. Like a dying female salmon,she fulfilled her duty to prez jv. Good girl

Anonymous said...




a moore victory gave franken an excuse to stay. now he has to drag his ass.

Commonsense said...

I'll bet you Franken stays the the Democrat leadership will let it go.

They are shameless.

Anonymous said...



i can't argue with shameless. when you're enough of a piece of shit coward to abandon a girl to drown in a car, anything's possible.

Anonymous said...

Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York has criticized President Donald Trump in recent days for what she perceived to be a “sexist” personal attack against her, but she declined to say definitively whether Trump’s similar attack on former GOP Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was sexual in nature.

Trump’s insisted that Romney “would have dropped to his knees” to help with his campaign in 2016; when asked if the remark constituted a “sexist attack,” Gillibrand responded simply “I don’t know.”

“The president says whatever he wants whenever he wants. I don’t think that level of discourse, however, is what this country wants,” she told the Washington Examiner.

http://dailycaller.com/2017/12/13/gillibrand-has-no-explanation-for-trumps-sexist-attack-on-romney/

Anonymous said...

Yes. That is what we want, we all get to use the 1st Amendment equally.