The smallish gain Scott received (0.15 to 0.154) from the mandatory machine recounts came from other counties.
But according to Florida officials, those new machine count totals will be included in their manual recount totals... or so it would seem. Obviously you cannot allow counties to pick and choose whether to submit a new vote total based on whether it helps or hurts a candidate. So it would seem fundamentally illegal that Florida would use Broward's original vote count of the machine counted ballots, simply because a new one was sent in 2 minutes late. Especially when another recount was ordered after the first one. Otherwise every county would play that same game of deciding whether or not they should submit a new vote total. Everyone would wait till the last possible moment.
There isn't a Judge in the state of Florida or in the Federal court system that would allow this sort of tomfoolery to stand.
So basically (one way or the other) Scott starts the manual recount knowing he has already banked a net gain of 767 votes in Broward County. Scott is also expected to see a net vote gain in Hillsborough after they also came up 846 votes short of their election night totals. Lastly, Palm Beach county is said to have had "missing ballots" that left both candidates short of their election night totals. Although officials in that county believe it was more likely a machine failure during the second recount that explain the missing votes, rather than the possibility that they too may have counted more ballots on election night than they actually had.
Either way, the counties that Nelson would have expected to find most of the votes necessary will start in the hole. Based on previous recount experiences, it is unlikely that Broward will find anything close to the amount of extra votes from under/over and mismatched provisional ballots to offset the 767 votes that Scott has already banked. Hillsborough will be in the same boat, and who knows if Palm Beach county will find the "significant" amount of lost ballots that would likely cost Nelson more votes. Palm Beach may have to rerun their entire machine recount a second time, or face the very real possibility of having their original vote totals be their final vote total.
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It's been reported that there are a reported 53769 under and overvotes statewide. While this sounds like a lot of potential votes, the operative word is potential. Let's say (for argument sake) that half of these votes were actually mistaken as either under or overvotes. Let's say that for whatever reasons, Nelson carries these votes by a resounding 70/30 margin (40%).
53769*0.50 = 26885
26885*0.40 = 10754
In this case (which would be a result that would far exceed any and every statistical anomaly that Nelson could ever hope for) Nelson would pick up 10754 votes and Scott still holds a lead of about 1850 votes. That doesn't even count adding back in the Broward or Hillsborough machine recounts, which would add an additional 800 votes or more to Scott's total.
A more likely scenario is that only about 10% of these votes will be found to be valid votes, and at best you will see one candidate win those votes by a margin of 55-45 (10%).
26885*0.10 = 538
Given this scenario, the 538 votes would represent a significantly larger than average (300) net vote total change for a hand recount. So by that standard, even the 538 vote might be a little high.
Either way, Nelson is not going to win this recount.
25 comments:
Classless Hollywierd.
The dry cleaning bill for the upholstery on Air Force One must be insane. #FLOTITS,” Midler wrote."
White House Ordered to Return Acosta’s Press Pass
A federal judge granted CNN’s request for a court order that would temporarily reinstate network correspondent Jim Acosta’s White House press pass, which had been suspended indefinitely in the wake of a fiery exchange between the reporter and President Trump a week earlier, CNBC reports.
Axios: “In his ruling, Judge Timothy Kelly is setting a precedent that future White House administrations and other elected officials need clear evidence of a security threat or operational burden created by reporters’ actions in order to have the justification to revoke a press pass.”
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IOW, Donald, this ain't Russia and you ain't Putin.
Washington Secrets
2020: Re-election support for Trump higher than it was for Obama
So he gets his pass back. Does mean he can enter the White House.
CH opines like the loser he is with....
Let's say (for argument sake) that half of these votes were actually mistaken as either under or
Lets say for argument that your post about the dying GOP was the worse set of statitisitcs that proved nothing you have ever posted, why would this be any different????? The bad news for you is Nelson ain't dead yet no matter how hard you wish otherwise....the probability of turning it around is small, but exists....Your side had an ass kicking and more is coming shortly as more findings start trickling out from mueller.....Seems the assange news could lead right back to donnie....won't that suck for you Scotty.....how much more of trumps dick are you going to eat?????
In any scenario where there's a fair, open, and transparent recount Nelson loses.
He's should concede to spare himself the embarrassment of being thrown out of the Heart building.
hey, what's the latest on "tank" abrams in GA? it looks like she's really got her size 18 heels dug in.
She's throwing the legal equivalent to a Hail Mary.
In any scenario where there's a fair, open, and transparent recount Nelson loses.
Which is exactly what Nelson wants...Unlike scott who screamed fraud like trump;.....sad he probably is the winner acting like a typical whining asshole R which you accept.....very sad the lawsuits he has filed ironically are against his administration...yeah, he's a great leader....BWAAAAAAAAA!!!
Lets say for argument that your post about the dying GOP was the worse set of statitisitcs
Well those were not my "statistics" - they were taken from CNN Exit polling.
So you might want to send an email to Jeff Zucker with your silly profanity laced diatribe, rather than attack the messenger!
I love reading GOP success stories like this.....Yep....the GOP is losing bigly....
Porter's upset in Orange County is a sign of changing times in a region once known nationally as a GOP fortress. The coastal county southeast of Los Angeles was home to President Richard Nixon, and President Ronald Reagan once likened it to a Republican heaven.
Porter, a law professor and protege of Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren, defeated Republican Rep. Mimi Walters, who was re-elected in a walkover just two years ago in the 45th District. The latest update to the vote count gave Porter 51 percent and a 6,203-vote lead.
Porter, 44, campaigned on an unabashed liberal agenda and in direct opposition to President Donald Trump's priorities: She advocates overturning his tax reform package, supports universal health care, and endorses mandatory background checks on all gun sales and a ban on so-called assault-style weapons.
Well those were not my "statistics" - they were taken from CNN Exit polling.
You posted it asswipe....poseesion is 9/10's of the law.....My comment of you spending so much of your limited brain power on that pile of trash was most amusing...If I had his address, I would more than happy to express my opinion to him like how your kind made death threats to the Brett accuser...funny how you remained silent on that and you complain about my profanity!! Absolutely sickening but predictable....you are such a douche nozzle CH as you slip down the trump rabbit hole...LOLOLOL!!!
Trump made four trips to Montana in four months in an effort to topple incumbent Jon Tester, but Tester had the biggest victory of his career, for the first time topping 50 percent of the vote. More people voted in the midterms than in the 2016 election in 15 counties, with much of the increased turnout in Democratic areas. That indicates that Trump’s efforts helped motivate the opposition.
But you are telling us that the Republicans will not be the minority party for at least ten years.
But you are telling us that the Republicans will not be the minority party for at least ten years.
Ummm, you predicted we’d be lost for a generation after 2008. You talk out of your ass, frequently
Ummm, you predicted we’d be lost for a generation after 2008. You talk out of your ass, frequently
LOL. reminding the alky of his failed predictions, especially this one, never gets old.
Roger - has it escaped your attention that Tester, Joe Manchin, and Doug Jones in Alabama are the last remaining red state Democrats?
Did it escape your attention that McCaskill, Donnelly, and Heitkamp all lost in red states just a couple of weeks ago and that none of those races were even close?
Democrats can hope to pick up some Purple state seats... such as the special election in Arizona, Cory Gardner in Colorado, both in 2020.
Perhaps some day they can pick off Ron Johnson in Wisconsin, Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania, Rob Portman in Ohio, and possibly Marco Rubio (and six years from now Rick Scott) in Florida...
But you are citing an exception, Roger. Not the rule. The rule is that Red State Democrats just got their collective asses handed to them.
But you are telling us that the Republicans will not be the minority party for at least ten years.
alky, one thing i'm curious about is your ultimate end game. what i mean is, everywhere that was once solidly red, where the GOP basically ran the show up until the early 60's were eventually taken over by democrats and subsequently turned to shit.
i sat here in absolute amazement as i watched beano o'rourke and his toothy kennedy appeal, and all the fuss it caused. "we're going to turn texas blue!!!" was the cry.
yeah?
and then what?
it becomes an oversized philly, or detroit, or baltimore, or even houston?
i guess where i'm going with all this is why can't you assholes leave well enough alone? history and prior democrat performance dictates that if you get to control it all, you'll fucking destroy it all. everything democrats touch eventually turns to shit.
every. fucking. thing.
and then what?
what happens when you really do run out of other people's money, and labor???
Miami-Dade has already finished it's hand recount. Nelson only netted 181 more votes.
Nelson only netted 181 more votes.
So you are saying those 181 votes should not have been counted??? Or are not important? Or should be tossed??? Aren't you the party of every vote is equal except when you don't like them????
Did it escape your attention that McCaskill, Donnelly, and Heitkamp
Funny, Scotty, you ignore the loss of the last R strong hold in the largest state of the Union....lost all congressman in new england and has 1 left in NJ.....and 6+ million fewer votes and you have 2 assholes screaming voter fraud....one being the governor of the state he's accusing fraud of....Yeah, CH...big win for stupidity.....Sad all those red states you are so proud of are net receivers of handouts and have the total population of LA!!!! Keep posting drivel...you do it well BTW did I mention flipping 7 governors and 6 legislatures???? Yep....you won 3 senate seats, but lost a war....LOLOLOL
It's not enough. Idiot.
It's not enough. Idiot.
Did I say it was asshole??? I asked you several questions and all you can say it was not enough....You basically said it was a waste of time to assure all votes were counted....and you call me the idiot, asshole...No wonder why you support trump....LOLOLOL
Do you enjoy being known as the board asshole Dennis?
Or are you really stupid enough to think you're clever?
Do you enjoy being known as the board asshole Dennis?
Doesn't bother me anymore than you being called a moronic cultist without morals.....Clever....nah....just a realist in my description of you worthless assholes..
So you are saying those 181 votes should not have been counted???
I think he is saying that all 181 of those ballots should be first counted, then shoved up your keister.
The margin is 12,603. Who the fuck cares about 181 votes. Sort of the whole point that I have been making for the past few days is that there is no way Nelson would make up 12,600 votes.
Perhaps it's time for you to admit that I was correct!!?!!
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