Monday, May 27, 2019

RCP Trump Presidential Approval Rating remarkably stable...

Over the past seventeen months or so, the President's approval rating average on Real Clear Politics has remained pretty much within a five point swing between 40-45%. Only once has he dipped below 40% (39.9% in March of 2018) and only once has he jumped over 45% (45.1% earlier this month). In fact, over the entire term of his Presidency he has stayed within 37% and 46%. The lows coming in the late summer of 2017 (right around the time of the Charlotteville protests) and the highs coming very shortly after he was sworn in.

I find it amusing when I read stories (like one today in the Guardian) where someone insists that the President's supporter are "deserting him in droves". The truth is that this President (probably more than any other) has both a floor and a ceiling of support that has very few people undecided. 

Right now the President sits at approximately 43%. So just above the middle area of the 40-45 range, and at the upper end of his 46-37 range. Considering how much drama follows this President around, it seems remarkable that we do not see the sorts of swooping numbers that other President's saw. George W Bush, for instance had approvals in the eighties (and at least one poll in the nineties) after 9-11, only to see approvals down into the twenties by the time he left office. 

The two factors that seem to guarantee Trump remain in this sweet spot (and I only mean that as a matter of consistency - not to suggest that mid to low forties is a good approval rating) are the economy and his personal actions. It seems for many (like myself) I tend to judge the politicians in power by what is happening in the country more than anything else. When the country does well, people approve. But for others, no matter how well the country does, they will be forever put off by his actions (tweets, public disagreements, etc) or fall into the whole "rumor" mill run by our MSM.

So it's like Trump is sort of playing chicken. What breaks first. If the economy stays strong over the next year or so, then it would seem that Trump could have a real good shot at reelection if he simply stayed disciplined like he did for the last 2-3 months of the 2016 campaign. While that would not likely raise his overall approvals all that much, it might get people to still vote for him, even if they are not enamored with his actions. How Trump won the 2016 election was by winning a large share of the electorate who did not have a good opinion about either candidate.

But if the economy falters, then I doubt Trump acting more Presidential would be enough for him to win reelection. His appeal to most people is in the results. If he fails to be seen as the results guy, who brought back the economy from the dead, then he definitely will not win over those who do not approve (or did not approve) of his actions. It's possible if there is a bad economy, and Trump continues to be Trump, that he could lose by a significant margin.

The wildcard, of course, is who the Democrats nominate. We can almost be guaranteed that whoever it is will be wildly mocked, undercut, nicknames, and rode hard for the entire election campaign. There is no candidate on the left without significant warts. Those warts will only be amplified during a national Presidential run. Bottom line is that it's very likely that voters will walk into the voting booth in 2020, not particularly liking either candidate. Not all unlike what happened in 2016.

I suspect that the economy will not still be seeing consistent 3% growth, but neither am I expecting a major recession between now and then. The Feds leaving the rates alone (or possibly even lowering them once or twice before the election) should be enough to keep the economy growing, and unemployment low. I will go out on a limb and suggest that Trump approvals will be in the same 40-45% range as they are today. I will also go out on a limb and predict that most polls will show Trump down to the Democrat by similar margins we saw in 2016.

But that's all the further I go right now with my predictions.

2 comments:

Leave.EU said...

@LeaveEUOfficial

2014: UKIP wins EU elections
2015: Tory majority on EURef pledge
2016: 17.4 million Brits vote Leave
2017: 80% for parties promising Brexit
2019: Brexit Party wins EU elections

FIVE times we've voted. When will they start listening?

anonymous said...

RCP Trump Presidential Approval Rating remarkably stable...

Remarkable....not really.....seems there are 40 - 45% of americans who have fallen for his BS....just like you....Can't fix that massive amount of stupid quickly....BWQAAAAAAAAA!!!! Funny how this 5th post about polls you don't trust unless they support your bias is most amusing.....LOLOLOLOL