There is no question that Biden would have to be favored based on polling
Nate Silver had a tweet post-debate where he suggested that Trump will lose "unless" there is a systematic problem with the 2020 polling or something substantial happens to shake up the race. While this is not unlike 2016 to some degree, to a large extent it's the degree that matters. Polling was off in 2016 enough to turn an assumed Hillary victory into a Trump win. But polling might have to be off by even larger amounts in 2020 to see that same magic trick repeat itself.
Reality is that 2016 and 2020 look remarkably similar from a standpoint of the battleground state polling right now, but those polls closed quite a bit down the stretch in 2016. Trump actually underperformed the battleground state polling in almost as many states as he overperformed. It's just that he still won the states he underperformed in, while overperforming in states that really mattered (Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin).
But in states like Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Arizona, and Georgia, Trump held polling leads in 2016, whereas in this election cycle, most of those states show him behind. Now this could change between now and election (as it did in 2016) but I have a gut feeling that Trump will continue to be polling at least slightly behind the 2016 numbers.
So to a large degree, Silver is correct. There would have to be an even greater systematic problem with the 2020 polling as there was with the 2016 and 2018 polling. The intuitive concept here would be that pollsters should have learned some lessons from the past couple of election cycles and would be more accurate in 2020. Whereas it would be counterintuitive to suggest that they would have doubled down on their previous failures and allowed themselves to be off even further.
It has been suggested recently that if Donald Trump wins reelection that the entire polling industry might go the way of Blockbuster Video, being replaced with something completely different and never to be heard from again. So it seems very difficult to believe that pollsters are not bending over backwards to not repeat the previous mistakes. Their own credibility and careers might just be at stake.
On the flip side, no incumbent since Jimmy Carter has taken the sort of beating that polling suggests Trump might take here. Let's be clear, Donald Trump maintains a rabid following that Jimmy Carter never had and Joe Biden is no Ronald Reagan. It's really hard to imagine that any President would go from winning states by 8-10 point margins, to losing them four years later (which is what many of these polls are showing).
If I am being objective across the board, I don't believe the polling that shows Joe Biden up by 10 points or polling that shows Biden winning states that Clinton lost by double digits in 2020. But just because I don't believe in double digit swings, doesn't mean I don't believe that Biden will overperform Clinton's 2016 disaster. The factual truth is that Biden only has to be marginally better than Clinton was in 2016 to reverse fortunes. At this point in time, there is little reason (based on polling) to believe he won't be at least marginally better.
114 comments:
You are way more scientific than I am but I get a real feel that Trump was a "hard" vote in 2016 but a very easy one in 2020. Election interference by big tech and the MSM has gotten much worse and helps the dems but the dems rolled out an even worse candidate than Hillary, if that was even possible. Mueller style.
I also think that Trump has significantly improved his standing in the minority community and that current polling doesn't properly account for changing opinions in those demographics.
We shall see. I know I am confidently voting for Trump in 2020 and in 2016 did so reluctantly.
Finally I think Hillary had more enthusiasm behind her than Biden. And that can't be good for dems.
Roger lost the Debate Like Slow Joe.
🤣"
I wish Scott would ban you from Thecoldheartedtruth"
It's only ten days until the election. I'm getting a little more optimistic. The early voting favors the Democrats. If Biden is declared the winner in Florida on Tuesday evening, he will be sworn in on January 20th in 2001.🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23/early-voting-numbers-swing-states-431363
The turnout data does not mean Donald Trump will lose to Joe Biden. Both sides are bracing for a close race and a giant wave of Republicans to vote in person on Nov. 3. Yet the turnout disparity with new and less-reliable voters has forced Republican political operatives to take notice.
“It’s a warning flare,” said veteran Republican strategist Scott Reed.
“Some Republicans are stuck in a model that we always run up the score on Election Day to make up the difference,” Reed said. “I think running an election in a superpolarized electorate, you want to win early voting. Let’s go. Let’s stop talking and making excuses.”
The GOP caught an encouraging glimpse in Florida on Tuesday, when more Republicans began casting in-person, early ballots than Democrats in Trump’s must-win state. But Democrats have dominated voting by mail and on Thursday held a historic lead in total pre-Election Day ballots cast of 463,000, or 10 percentage points, according to the state’s Division of Elections. Gov. Ron DeSantis this week urged Republicans to vote early in person, a message Trump plans to echo on Saturday, when he’s expected to call on his base to get to the polls.
At a glance, the top-line Democratic margins also look huge in Arizona (16 percentage points), Michigan (24 points), North Carolina (14 points), Pennsylvania (46 points), and Wisconsin (22), according to the analysis from Hawkfish, which is funded by billionaire Michael Bloomberg, a Trump foe.
The debate last night, helped Biden, because the President didn't reach out for undecided voters.
Plus the enthusiasm expressed by the early voting turnout.
It is only ten days.
I'm not predicting the future but I am optimistic.
I slaughtered fucking daddy
Florida
Total ballots cast of 14.4 million registered voters: 4.2 million for whom Hawkfish has support scores. Biden: 56 percent. Trump: 44 percent.
Ballots cast by newly registered voters: 422,000. Biden: 55 percent. Trump: 45 percent.
Ballots cast by sporadic voters: 174,000. Biden: 53 percent. Trump: 47 percent.
Republican takeaway: The Republican Party of Florida has 470,000 more high-propensity voters than Democrats who have yet to vote. The Democratic Party also traditionally has more sporadic and newly registered voters as a share of their electorate, so the numbers aren’t out of whack.
Tim Baker (R), Data Targeting: “The absentee and early voting numbers for Democrats are seemingly a reflection of their most reliable voters shifting voting methods and ultimately a cannibalization of voting method and not necessarily a turnout indicator at this stage. We are encouraged by the increase in Republican voter registration and the enthusiasm we are seeing across the state."
Democratic takeaway: No party has ever jumped to a lead like Democrats have in pre-Election Day voting. Factoring in independents, who are largely composed of No Party Affiliation, Biden appears to be winning the swing voters of the swing state.
Kevin Cate (D), CATECOMM: “The Republican spin on turnout and the enthusiasm gap sounds a lot like the Democratic spin in cycles where Democrats lost the top of the ticket. If you cut through it, Democratic turnout is unprecedentedly quick, large, and new — and so is No Party Affiliation turnout.”
I just read your thread article and am glad to see you are, albeit begrudgingly, predicting a likely Biden victory. You are not as completely in the Kool-aid as many here.
Scott, Donald Trump is no Reagan.
Carter lost mainly because he mishandled the Iran kidnapping and the revolution after the rebels defeated Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.
Trump has completley mishandled the covid-19 pandemic.
Biden may be the first President of a new direction, similar to the Great Deal. He may be a transitional leader
Here's another reason you, Ch, can have some, albeit questionable, hope:
BLOOMBERG:
Trump Sees Reason for Hope in Voter Signups
3:41 pm
“President Trump and his campaign have cited increased Republican voter registrations as a sign he still has a viable path to re-election, despite public polls showing him headed for a loss.
“As of this week across eight battleground states, Republicans have registered about 179,000 more voters than Democrats since 2016, including big net gains in two states that could decide the election — Florida and Pennsylvania. After the 2016 election, famously decided by about 88,000 voters in three Midwestern states, that margin could prove significant on Election Night.”
And now little more grim realism for Trump supporters:
THE GUARDIAN
Donald Trump reverts to type in debate – and it isn't 'magnificently brilliant'
Richard Wolffe 18 hrs ago
Normal presidents get their third debate right.
They flunk their first in a fit of presidential pique about standing on stage with their upstart rivals. They over-correct their second after a frantic period of long-delayed rehearsals. By the time the third comes along, they usually remember what got them elected in the first place.
Donald Trump is not a normal president.
He whiffed his first debate by forcing himself down the throat of Joe Biden. He skipped his second debate because he was sick with the pandemic he failed to take seriously. And he never prepped for the third debate, on Thursday night.
It showed. After 25 minutes of failing to shout down his opponent, Trump couldn’t hold it in any longer.
As soon as Joe Biden mentioned how Wall Street was warned about the pandemic before the American people, Trump accused Biden of making money from Wall Street. Then he accused him of not making enough money from Wall Street.
“I would blow away every record, but I don’t do that,” Trump yelled. “I could blow away your records.”
If the Donald Trump who showed up at the final debate was the kinder, gentler version, he measured his kindness in stock market indices. As the candidates clashed over how to fix healthcare, in the middle of a pandemic, Trump retreated to his empathy-free comfort zone.
“They say the stock market will boom if I’m elected president,” he barked. “It will crash if he’s elected.”
There is a limit to how long Trump can pretend to care. Judging from his debate performance, it’s about as long as it takes for a goldfish to swim around a bowl.
When asked how he would reunite the more than 500 children his own officials have separated from their parents – and lost track of them – Trump berated Biden about building cages.
“Who built the cages, Joe?”
“The kids were ripped from their arms. Now the kids are alone,” Biden replied. “It’s criminal.”
“They are so well taken care of,” Trump insisted. “Who built the cages?”
Some people think the best form of defense is offense. Trump thinks the best form of empathy is being offensive.
As the conversation turned to racial justice, Trump insisted that he was the best president for Black Americans since Abraham Lincoln. He then proceeded to trash Black Lives Matter protesters for being offensive to the police.
“Abraham Lincoln here is one of the most racist presidents we’ve had in history,” Biden said. “This guy has a dog whistle as big as a bull horn.”
“I am the least racist person in this room,” Trump claimed, speaking to a nation he hoped had forgotten all about the very fine white supremacists he so admired in Charlottesville.
As with the rest of his presidency, debate night was not a moment for message consistency by Donald Trump.
He started the debate claiming that the first models predicted 2.2 million Americans would die, so things were looking pretty good with more than 220,000 dead. He said there were now “goggles and masks and gowns” so everything was obviously fine and dandy.
As campaign slogans go, “It could have been worse” is not exactly the perfect sequel to making America great again.
Then again, Trump’s closing arguments on the coronavirus were not exactly consistent – like the rest of his presidency. When asked if he took responsibility for the pandemic, Trump was definitively evasive.
“I take full responsibility,” he declared. “It’s not my fault it came here.”
Roger lost the Debate Like Slow Joe.
🤣"
I wish Scott would ban you from Thecoldheartedtruth"
JFD. took you too the same woodshed , Trump took Biden .
When Donald Trump waddled on stage in the final debate of the 2020 election, he was already having a bad day.
Not by his own standards, of course. By his own impeccable judgment, it was a magnificent day. To be precise, it was a “magnificently brilliant” day, as Trump described his own performance in front of the CBS News cameras of 60 Minutes.
Not to put too a fine point on his presidency, this might just be the fatal flaw in the entire Trump project: the cosmic chasm between Donald’s self-regard and the way the rest of the sentient universe sees him.
Donald apparently sincerely believes he is an elite political athlete, while the majority of American voters keep telling pollsters that his gameplan isn’t working.
Trump is running 10 points behind his rival in national polls, and trailing by seven or eight points in the states – like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania – that won him the election four years ago.
It is from this winning position that our winningest candidate is going after the least obvious targets. For some reason unknown to political strategists of all persuasions, Trump is closing this election by attacking 60 Minutes for being mean to him, and attacking Joe Biden’s son for business dealings with China.
This in the week we all learned that Trump has a secret bank account in China, where he has paid more taxes to the People’s Republic than he has to his own country.
Watching Trump’s interview with Lesley Stahl of 60 Minutes, it’s hard to know why Trump feels so aggrieved – other than being the patron saint of the contrived grievances of old white men.
“I will soon be giving a first in television history full, unedited preview of the vicious attempted ‘takeout’ interview of me by Lesley Stahl of @60Minutes,” he tweeted. “Watch her constant interruptions & anger. Compare my full, flowing and ‘magnificently brilliant’ answers to their ‘Q’s’.”
Stahl’s vicious approach amounted to her questioning Trump’s facts about sundry topics, including a certain pandemic you might have heard of. Her anger was so magnificently hidden, you might call it the brilliant disguise of a mildly surprised reporter.
These are trying times for Trump. In addition to trailing in the polls, his campaign has somehow squandered vast sums of cash to the point where he is being outspent by “Sleepy” Joe Biden and yet still has less than half the cash that Rip Van Winkle is slumbering on.
On top of all that, he can’t get no satisfaction from his laser-like focus on the son of the other candidate. This might have more resonance if the year was 2016, or if the supposed corruption involved Joe Biden himself.
Instead, the case against Hunter Biden is being prosecuted by Rudy Giuliani, who was just caught by Borat with his hand down his pants. His co-prosecutor is Steve Bannon, the former campaign guru currently indicted for fraud for bilking Trump fans who wanted to fund the infamous wall on the Mexican border.
Both men are working for an impeached president, whose own daughter works in his White House but somehow secured a fistful of new patents from China.
To the extent Trump had a consistent message at Thursday’s debate, it was about what he called “the laptop from hell” or what the moderator delicately called “foreign entanglements”.
In Trump’s retelling, Biden took millions from Russia and China, while he closed his accounts and never made a penny from either country.
There’s a reason why Donald Trump was impeached, and it wasn’t because he was trying to end corruption.
There’s a reason why he’s losing this election, and it’s not because of his magnificently brilliant approach to the pandemic, which hospitalized him between the last debate and this one.
With less than two weeks to the final day of this historic election, Donald Trump needed to change his flight path dramatically before this Trump Shuttle plunges into the Hudson River. Instead, the captain of this doomed vessel insists that the loss of both engines is a sign of his own aeronautical genius.
Political gravity pulls every leader down to earth eventually. In Trump’s case, the time for stunts is over. This president is in a tailspin; all that is left is the crash landing.
George HW Bush was the incumbent.
Biden has 7.9% average.
But you are ignoring the fact that the older voters are leaning towards Biden,in Florida and Arizona.
Even Texas is in play for the first time since 1976 when Jimmy Carter won.
Joe looking at his watch was a priceless moment.
Ch's begrudgingly honest thread article admits that to his chagrin the bulk of the electorate are about to take Trump to the woodshed.
Steph
@4everaPatriot76
Joe Biden claims that border crossers come back for court dates, but not for their actual children.
That must be why he needed to build cages
Roger Amick said...
It's only ten days until the election. I'm getting a little more optimistic. The early voting favors the Democrats. If Biden is declared the winner in Florida on Tuesday evening, he will be sworn in on January 20th in 2001.
Well he wasn't sworn in on January 20th in 2001 so he must not win Florida.
Roger Amick said...
I slaughtered fucking daddy
With your TDS and dementia you couldn't slaughter a pill bug
ROFLMFAO !!!
NEW YORK TIMES:
Iowans Sour on the GOP
6:00 pm
“Iowa’s governor is not on the ballot next month. But her defiant attitude toward the advice of health experts on how to fight the coronavirus outbreak, as her state sees a grim tide of new cases and deaths, may be dragging down fellow Republicans who are running, including Mr. Trump and Senator Joni Ernst.
“Ms. Reynolds, the first woman to lead Iowa, is an avatar of the president’s approach to the pandemic, refusing to issue mandates and flouting the guidance of infectious disease experts, who say that universal masking and social distancing are essential to limiting the virus’s spread. Defying that advice has eroded support for both Mr. Trump and Ms. Reynolds in Iowa, especially among voters over 65, normally a solid Republican constituency, according to public and private polls.”
The people are confronted with a choice.
Many voters are more than ready for a president whose self-interest is tied to knowing how government works best to serve them, who tempers his instinct for self-promotion with an understanding of the line between that and deceit, and who seeks to heal societal divisions rather than exploiting them.
The Republican Identity Crisis After Trump
6:00 pm
Nicholas Lehmann:
“Trump will not be President forever—he may be in the role for only a few more months. It’s hard to imagine that the Republican Party could come close to replicating him with another Presidential candidate, unless it’s Donald Trump, Jr. But is there a future in Trumpism?”
____________
No. The nation and the saner portions of the GOP will want to wash their hands of the Trumps.
Tim Young
@TimRunsHisMouth
Bidencare is when your elderly doctor forgets who you are.
or maybe you get your prognosis in a fortune cookie ???
thebradfordfile™
@thebradfordfile
Maybe it's just me, but I don't think naming a healthcare plan after the guy who seems to have untreated dementia is a smart move.
Roger that.
ROFLMFAO !!!
California Gov. Gavin Newsom said Monday that the state had to “sober up” about the fact that renewable energy sources had failed to provide enough power for the state at peak demand, and needed “backup” and “insurance” from other sources.
It just keeps coming
ChuckGrassley
@ChuckGrassley
My report w Sen Johnson showed HBiden moved over $1 million to VPs brother James Biden & Lion Hall Group They wouldn’t answer questions abt the suspicious transaction & bank shut down account
If VP Biden wants Americans votes, he owes us answers
C'mon man just doesn't cut it.
The Fairydust failed CA.
Bidencare,, Joe promises, You can keep your Dr/Plan.
He did it talking in Dearborn, MI.
Donald Trump Jr.
@DonaldJTrumpJr
The amazing thing about 2020 is that if the media bothered to do a tiny fraction of the diligence that they did on me and my family on Joe Biden and his family the Democrats wouldn’t be fielding the most compromised candidate in the history of the US presidency right now
FACT CHECK: TRUE
Jack Posobiec
@JackPosobiec
Here is an email where one of Hunter's partners was frantically telling him to get Burisma to take Joe's picture off their website
EMAIL:
https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1319730738951049217
C'mon man, Joe has never met any of these people according to his word as a Biden.
🤡I slaughtered fucking daddy🤡
Nope.
Careful Joe, spun this carefully crafted Lawyered phrase.
"Joe Biden: (01:33)
I have not taken a penny from any foreign source ever in my life."
HE NEW REPUBLIC
Walter Shapiro/October 23, 2020
The Righteous Anger of Joe Biden
Next to a babbling, often incomprehensible president, Biden did what he needed to do in the final debate.
American political debates began in 1858 with Abraham Lincoln taking on Stephen Douglas over the future of slavery. And 162 years later, in what will hopefully be the final debate of Donald Trump’s career, Lincoln again took center stage.
Trump, with the fact-free audacity that has characterized his entire career, claimed, “Nobody has done more for the Black community than Donald Trump. If you look, with the exception of Abraham Lincoln, possible exception, nobody has done what I’ve done.”
That boast had everything, from the use of the third person (“Donald Trump”) to the hedge for Lincoln (“possible exception”). Joe Biden, who rarely used humor Thursday night, could not resist a mocking comment: “Abraham Lincoln here is one of the most racist presidents we’ve had in modern history.”
The shorthand scoring for the debate is that Trump was on good behavior throughout much of it. His performance may not have met the standard of traditional good behavior, but it was far better than his bully-boy tactics in the first debate. For all the Trump epithets about “Sleepy Joe,” Biden was, for the most part, fine. And with Biden’s double-digit lead in the many national polls, a fine performance was probably all he needed.
At this late stage, much of the remaining uncertainty about the election revolves around turnout. There is some worry in the Biden camp about a decline in voter participation among young Black men, who are rightly cynical about politics and their future in the United States. So the subtext to the debate’s discussion of race was whether anything said would increase Black male turnout.
In a sense, the telling moment was a split-screen visual as Biden, in response to an adroit question from moderator Kristen Welker, acknowledged the “institutional racism” in American society. The former vice president lamented that Black parents—no matter how rich—had to instruct their children on how to behave in front of the police.
Trump’s response was to glower all through Biden’s answer, in a moment that reveals all you need to know about the president’s true feelings on the issue, no matter how many times he claims to be a twenty-first-century Lincoln.
Equally telling was Trump’s response to a question about Black Lives Matter. In a moment that was halfway between obtuse and provocative, even by Trump’s standards, the president said, “The first time I ever heard of Black Lives Matter, they were chanting ‘Pigs in a blanket,’ talking about police.… ‘Pigs in a blanket. Fry them like bacon.’”
There are, of course, racist voters who will respond to such cues. But you would think that these MAGA-hat-wearing Americans are already voting for Trump. More relevant politically are the results of a CNN poll released in early September. It found that a majority of voters (51 percent) have a favorable impression of Black Lives Matter.
Biden’s strongest moment in the debate came when he allowed himself to show some righteous anger over the revelation that the Trump administration is unable to locate the parents of more than 500 children who were deliberately separated from their families at the border. After Trump claimed that these missing children were exploited by coyotes who brought them across the border, Biden exploded, “Their parents were with them. They got separated from their parents. And it makes us a laughingstock and violates every notion of who we are as a nation.”
It is so hard to avoid looking at a debate like this one through an entirely partisan lens. But it is possible to imagine an affluent suburban woman, tempted to vote for Trump because of the economy, who witnessed this moment and realized that she can’t support a president who rips children from the arms of their parents.
Trump devoted the bulk of the first half of the debate to predictable attacks on Biden and his son Hunter. But the substance of his volleys was, well, a little hard to make out. Talking over both Welker and Biden, Trump thundered, “If this stuff is true about Russia, Ukraine, China, other countries, Iraq, if this is true, then he’s a corrupt politician.… So don’t give me this stuff about how you’re this innocent baby. Joe, they’re calling you a corrupt politician.”
An infinite number of fact-checkers typing 24 hours a day couldn’t sort out all of Trump’s lies and exaggerations between now and Election Day. What is true (and this speaks to Biden’s strengths as a father as well as his weaknesses as a candidate) is that the Democratic nominee can’t bring himself to criticize his son for his execrable judgment in getting involved with shady figures in Ukraine.
Most of Trump’s charges came across as incomprehensible to every voter who doesn’t watch Fox obsessively every night. The only possible political benefit to Trump is that the blur of wild accusations may have created a cynical they-all-do-it attitude among swing voters confronted by a story like the New York Times report about the president’s whopping $750 federal tax payment.
Time in a debate is finite. And the more time Trump spent on Hunter Biden, the less time he could devote to his signature obsessions. He never mentioned antifa—once seemingly the greatest threat facing the U.S. And his only mention of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and the Squad was an inexplicable reference to “AOC plus three.” (“They’re all jumping through hoops for AOC plus three.”)
Unable to come up with a coherent defense of his record on Covid-19 and reduced to promising that a miraculous health care plan is just around the corner, Trump took refuge in the welcoming arms of the stock market. It was telling that the president’s final words on the debate stage were an alarmist warning that a Biden presidency would destroy Wall Street: “Your 401(k) will go to hell, and it will be a very sad day for our country.”
The temper tantrum that caused Trump to boycott the second of the three planned presidential debates was a costly unforced error that deprived him of a moment to halt his downward trajectory.
Now Trump is losing badly to the calendar. Already an estimated 48 million Americans have voted by mail or in person. That figure is roughly equal to the total turnout for the 1948 election. And that, by the way, was a year in which an underestimated former vice president who had had a lengthy prior career in the Senate, Harry Truman, won a decisive victory.
Biden's strengths
decency compassion empathy
likableness truthfulness
sincerity knowledge
Trump's strength
being Trump
Not good enough
Trump is like the energizer bunny. While Biden is taking a siesta.
Amazing , Joe is in bed. Sleep tight.
Who answers the phone call at 2 am?
Jill, The Hoe, ?
mindless Monotone Jane.
Joe asked for the tape of him banning Fracking.
CNN July 2019 , Democrat Presidential debate. He was asked, he said "no Fracking".
Joe , never challenge the facts, You always loss.
Jason Miller
@JasonMillerinDC
You know Biden’s abolish American energy answer is problematic if they’re canceling Harris’ Ohio trip today...
that campaign is so low energy I wonder how anyone knows what they are doing.
Anti-Trump is mostly low energy
Pro-Trump is high energy.
We'll see who actually ends up with the most votes.
Joe Called this man a Russian Operative.
Tony Bobulinski, US. Navy Officer.
Well, Ch, you may take some comfort in the fact that on the 538 Election forecast
Biden just dropped from
an 88 in 100 chance of winning to
an 87 in 100 chance of winning
while Trump rose from
a 12 in 100 chance of winning to
a 13 in 100 chance of winning.
Your fired!?
Fauci says it might be time to mandate masks as Covid-19 surges across US
By Andrea Kane and Maggie Fox, CNN
Updated 9:07 PM EDT, Fri October 23, 2020
(CNN)Dr. Anthony Fauci has been reluctant to support a federal mask mandate.
"A national mandate probably would not work," he said on Sept 15 during a news conference with Vermont Gov. Phil Scott.
Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has been urging Americans to use masks for months. "I have trust in the American people that if we put a strong emphasis on the importance of wearing masks, that we will come around and do that and get that percentage up above the relatively low percentage of people that are using masks," Fauci said on July 21 on NPR's Morning Edition.
A 'building distrust' in public health agencies is 'the elephant in the room,' Fauci says
But he has said before that he doesn't think a federal law would be the way to go.
"I don't like to be authoritarian from the federal government, but at the local level, if governors and others essentially mandate the use of masks when you have an outbreak, I think that would be very important," Fauci told Alabama Sen. Doug Jones during a Facebook live event in July.
Until now.
"Well, if people are not wearing masks, then maybe we should be mandating it," the leading infectious disease expert told CNN's Erin Burnett Friday.
Fake news
AXIOS:
MORE "FAKE" NEWS?
U.S. Hits Daily High In Coronavirus Infections
8:20 pm
The U.S. confirmed at least 83,010 coronavirus cases on Friday, the country’s highest daily total since the pandemic started.
Experts are warning that the U.S. is “facing a whole lot of trouble” as the country heads into the winter months.
___________
So Biden is correct to say that we are headed into a dark Winter and Trump is (as usual) wrong to deny that.
There's an awful lot of "trending up" in red in Ch's sidebar to this site.
at least 83,010 coronavirus cases on Friday
yet Trump says
we've turned the corner on this.
Joe is right.
Donald has "gone round the bend."
Joe is against America oil and Gas.
And For the money funneled his way from Hunters oil and Gas deals.
It's not working
Since February more than 8.4 million Americans have tested positive for the coronavirus, far more than in any other nation, and the number of new cases hit a new record high of more than 83,010 on Friday. Trump again tried to portray that figure as a consequence of the number of tests performed in the U.S. That assertion is disputed by health experts and statisticians, who say the relevant statistic is the percentage of tests coming back as positive for exposure to coronavirus, which has fluctuated over the months but in recent weeks has climbed back over 5 percent, signifying a worsening spread.
Fine job of wishing Covid away Lil Schitty and the slurpers!!!!!!! Sure seems to be getting worse as we wait for your promised vaccine and cure.....The trump legacy.....230 k dead americans and a virus!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Updated
The United States is in the midst of one of the most severe surges of the coronavirus to date, with more new cases reported across the country on Friday than on any other single day since the pandemic began.
Since the start of October, the rise in cases has been steady and inexorable, with no plateau in sight. By the end of the day, more than 85,000 cases had been reported across the country, breaking the single-day record set on July 16 by about 10,000 cases.
Trump were going around the corner!
The goat fucking idiot posted the following pile of bullshit that even the WSJ says it is false.....what is wrong with you other than being a mentally challenged midget?????????? BWAAAAAAAAAA!!!!
For the money funneled his way from Hunters oil and Gas deals.
87 k new infections as we have turned the corner heading towards trumps hell!!!!!!!!
4.7 million people lost their private health insurance plan with Obamacare which means Biden lied 4.7 million times.
The most unaffordable government mandate in existent is the Affordable Care Act.
🚨Here's the email where one of Hunter Biden's partners told Hunter to get Burisma to take Joe's picture off their website.
🚨🚨Here's a photo of Joe Biden and Devon Archer on Burisma's website. (presumably the same photo in question) web.archive.org/web/2014051414….
Joe's got some 'splaining to do. Care to jump in James? Roger?
87 k new infections as we have turned the corner heading towards trumps hell!!!!!!!!
And here's my comment on cramps fake photo's BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!
Biden + 10 with seniors.....think your BS is working asshole?????
TWITTER AND DEREK DUCK ARE NOT CREDIBLE TO ANYONE BUT DUMB FUCK CULTISTS!!!!!!!! BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
Trump's support from black and Hispanic voters could give him the win. He has a 46% favorable rating among blacks. 19% at last measure will vote for him. 35% Hispanics same. Obama having to Go to Philadelphia two weeks before the election is a telling sign. Trump has bern able to put minorities to work and they've seen their wages increase as well. Hourly wages rose 5.5% in 2019 alone. The largest increase of any labor group. They also like him closing peace agreements, trade agreements, and keeping the country out of war. And lastly, joe Biden is an uninspiring, mediocre candidate. Especially to minorities.
BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!! And he is down 10 with seniors and 26 with women.....Yep, he could win when pigs and ball less assholes fly!!!!!!!
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/10/19/polls-show-suburban-w For the money funneled his way from Hunters oil and Gas deals.oman-leading-charge-against-trump/
Your inability to refute what I just said about minorities is duly noted.
Trump also did prison reform. Another priority for minorities.
Typical Denny. He can't refute the argument so he throws out a non-sequitur.
FWIW I don't believe the number about seniors or suburban women. I think they are oversampling loudmouths who hate Trump enough to spend 30 minutes talking to a pollster telling them how much they hate Trump.
There.is an impromptu Trump rally outside the early voting station where Trump is voting today.
Suburban women don't love Trump. But they've been watching all the violence and destruction from the left and dislike that very much and appreciate Trump's law and order priority.
Joe Sleeps
s an impromptu Trump rally outside the early voting station where Trump
And are chanting lock him up!!!!!!!!! BWAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!
I didn't refute anything....just provided data and polling that shows a different reality to the dumb fucking ballz hope of a win with vast amounts of trump voters have left the fold....Sorry neither of you were smart enough to figure that out especially you cramps with your utter nonsense!!!!!!!! Your opinion is most amusing.....
Dopey is right about one thing. He didn't refute anything.
Lol. We don't call him dopey for nothing.
ANOTHER FANTASTIC MORNING !!!
thebradfordfile™
@thebradfordfile
Joe Biden calling a lid everyday at 9:00 AM may explain why he didn't get anything done in 47 years.
makes Hillary's work in 2016 that of a workhorse.
ROFLMFAO !!!
Not an anonymous poll:
Jill Colvin
@colvinj
Trump’s crowd here in Pensacola just goes on and on.
VIDEO:
https://twitter.com/colvinj/status/1319790922465480704
China loves the President.
Forbes Estimates China Paid Trump At Least $5.4 Million Since He Took Office, Via Mysterious Trump Tower Lease.
President Donald Trump, who declared “I don’t make money from China” in Thursday night’s presidential debate, has in fact collected millions of dollars from government-owned entities in China since he took office. Forbes estimates that at least $5.4 million has flowed into the president’s business from a lease agreement involving a state-owned bank in Trump Tower.
The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China signed a lease for space in 2008, years before the president took office, paying about $1.9 million in annual rent. Trump is well-aware of the deal. “I’ll show you the Industrial Bank of China,” he told three Forbes journalists touring Trump Tower in 2015. “I have the best tenants in the world in this building.”
Trump moved from the skyscraper to the White House in 2017, but he held onto ownership of the retail and office space in the building, through his 100% interest in an entity called Trump Tower Commercial LLC. That put him in an unusual position, given that government-owned entities in China hold at least 70% of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Suddenly, a routine real estate deal became a conduit for a foreign superpower to pay the president of the United States.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2020/10/23/forbes-estimates-china-paid-trump-at-least-54-million-since-he-took-office-via-mysterious-trump-tower-lease/#3362cd20ed11
USA TODAY
VIRUS SURGED IN WAKE OF TRUMP RALLIES
11:11 pm
“As President Trump jetted across the country holding campaign rallies during the past two months, he didn’t just defy state orders and federal health guidelines. He left a trail of coronavirus outbreaks in his wake.
“The president has participated in nearly three dozen rallies since mid-August, all but two at airport hangars.
"A USA Today analysis shows COVID-19 cases grew at a faster rate than before after at least five of those rallies in the following counties: Blue Earth, Minnesota; Lackawanna, Pennsylvania; Marathon, Wisconsin; Dauphin, Pennsylvania; and Beltrami, Minnesota.”
FORBES
China Paid Trump $5.4 Million Since He Took Office
11:06 pm
President Trump, who declared “I don’t make money from China” in Thursday night’s presidential debate, has in fact collected millions of dollars from government-owned entities in China since he took office, Forbes reports.
Forbes estimates that at least $5.4 million has flowed into the president’s business from a lease agreement involving a state-owned bank in Trump Tower.Quote of the Day
“The president quit on you.”
— Joe Biden, arguing President Trump bungled his response to the coronavirus pandemic.
Anonymous Myballs said...
Dopey is right about one thing. He didn't refute anything.
And the dumb fuck ballz can't find his own old ass in the dark is too stupid to stop digging....!!!!!! BWAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!
CNN
Fauci Says MASKS SHOULD BE MANDATORY
8:01 am
Dr. Anthony Fauci said that if “people are not wearing masks, then maybe we should be mandating it.”
Fauci made the comments the same day the U.S. hit its highest daily COVID-19 case count since the pandemic began.
BUT OF COURSE MASKS DON'T HELP, CH ARGUES.
Group Plotted to Arrest DeWine for ‘Tyranny’
7:17 am
Police in Ohio were told of a plan among an unspecified group of people to go to Gov. Mike DeWine’s (R) home to arrest him for “tyranny,” WTOL reports.
_____
THERE ARE FINE PEOPLE ON BOTH SIDES says Trump.
Jared and Ivanka Threaten to Sue Lincoln Project
7:12 am
Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner sent a cease-and-desist letter to The Lincoln Project demanding that the anti-Trump group take down billboards in Times Square criticizing the White House’s response to the coronavirus pandemic.
The couple threatened to sue for “enormous compensatory and punitive damages.”
__________
Lots of Luck.
THE HILL:
Biden Gets Late Boost with Union Endorsement
6:30 am
“Joe Biden got a late boost in the White House race Friday when he scored the endorsement of a prominent alliance of construction unions.
“North America’s Building Trades Unions, which includes 14 unions representing nearly 3 million workers, announced it was backing the former vice president, touting his character and saying he’d support the country’s middle class."
THE WRAP:
Lou Dobbs Urges Voters to Oust Lindsey Graham
11:26 pm
“For those keeping track of political beefs, add Republicans Lou Dobbs and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham to your list. Because on Friday’s episode of his Fox Business show, Dobbs fumed about how much he thinks Graham sucks, and openly urged people in Graham’s home state to not vote for him in the 2020 election.”
THE DAILY BEAST:
National GOP Formally Backs QAnon Supporter
11:18 pm
“After weeks of wavering, the national Republican party has formally thrown its support behind Marjorie Taylor Greene, the Georgia Republican House candidate who is openly supportive of QAnon.
“The National Republican Congressional Committee donated $5,000 to Greene’s congressional campaign on September 25, according to campaign finance records—the maximum amount the committee can donate.”
_______
Well, we know there are fine people among them too. The Donald told us so.THE HILL:
Trump Leans Into Attacks on Biden’s Family
8:06 am
“President Trump and his campaign are leaning into attacks on Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s family and business dealings in the closing days before the election, believing it reinforces their message of Trump being an outsider and Biden a lifelong Washington politician.
“It’s a strategy that could backfire and SOME REPUBLICANS BELIEVE IT'S THE WRONG MOVE, AS POLLS FIND VOTERS ARE FAR MORE CONCERNED ABOUT JOBS, THE ECONOMY, HEALTH CARE, AND THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC.”
Suddenly, a routine real estate deal became a conduit for a foreign superpower to pay the president of the United States.
LOL.
you really got his this time alky.
this the beginning of the end.
a bombshell.
the walls are closing in.
show us the peer reviewed study that says they help, pederast.
i haven't seen one yet.
Can you imagine what fox news would say about Obama getting millions from China?
rrb would steal PJ media for outrageous comments about the negro President who was born in Kenya!!!
Blogger Roger Amick said...
Can you imagine what fox news would say about Obama getting millions from China?
no, actually i can't alky.
i could never see skeets as a landlord or a business owner.
all he'll ever be is a grifter. a parasite.
like you.
Here's a peer reviewed study, rat.
https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-mask/art-20485449
Roger Amick said...
Can you imagine what fox news would say about Obama getting millions from China?
Obama owned a world-wide business. Worth billions ????
I thought his experience was as a community organizer.
Still doesn't explain why Biden would travel to Ukraine to fire a prosecutor who was investigating his son. Has any other VP ever done this even if their son wasn't on the board earning millions ?
Didn't think so, very suspicious. And withholding US aid till they did...
And China was paying the Bidens tens of millions.
At least.
C'mon big guy. Explain. Unless you are too busy in your basement fending off corn pop.
The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China signed a lease for space in 2008, years before the president took office, paying about $1.9 million in annual rent. Trump is well-aware of the deal.
A legitimate real estate lease signed 9 years before Trump became president at prevailing market rates.
This is your big bombshell?
Compare and contrast with Biden getting direct payments from China for services render as VP.
Blogger James said...
Here's a peer reviewed study, rat.
oh, so you don't know what a peer-reviewed study IS, eh pederast?
what you posted was a Q&A infomercial.
James said...
Here's a peer reviewed study, rat.
I'll save rrb time.
That is NOT a peer reviewed study.
Are you really that stupid or just dishonest ???
You failed
Here's another: From John Hopkins.
https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-face-masks-what-you-need-to-know
This explains EVERYTHING about the libs here
https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1319812579364114433
well a lot anyway.
Here's another:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7191274/
Blogger James said...
Here's another: From John Hopkins.
LOL.
yeah. another Q & A.
LOL.
This is too easy
James said...
Here's another: From John Hopkins.
I'll save rrb time.
AGAIN that is NOT a peer reviewed study.
Are you really that stupid or just dishonest ???
Obviously both
What a POS
Here's another:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7191274/
CONCLUSION
The study provides evidence that US states mandating the use of face masks in public had a greater decline in daily COVID-19 growth rates after issuing these mandates compared with states that did not issue mandates. These effects were observed conditional on other existing social distancing measures and were independent of the CDC recommendation to wear face covers issued April 3, 2020. As international and state governments begin to relax social distancing restrictions, and considering the high likelihood of a second COVID-19 wave in the fall and winter of 2020,30 requiring the use of face masks in public could help in reducing COVID-19 spread.
The Lies We’re Told about the American Story
Kearns says Frances “begged her husband to cancel the rest of their tour. . . . They turned their horses’ heads northward and homeward.” Horrors such as this ignited a Civil War.
How many Americans died in the war over slavery? Some historians say as many as 850,000; they were farm boys and city kids and overwhelmingly white. White lives for black lives.
With the end of the war in sight, the nation exhausted and sick of death and with mothers still wailing for their sons, Lincoln weighed the cost of slavery. Both the North and the South, Lincoln said,
read the same Bible, and pray to the same God; and each invokes His aid against the other . . . [but the] Almighty has His own purposes. . . . Fondly do we hope — fervently do we pray — that this mighty scourge of war may speedily pass away. Yet, if God wills that it continue, until all the wealth piled by the bond-man’s two hundred and fifty years of unrequited toil shall be sunk, and until every drop of blood drawn with the lash, shall be paid by another drawn with the sword, as was said three thousand years ago, so still it must be said “the judgments of the Lord, are true and righteous altogether.”
We were a people, born into a slaveholding world, who prayed, and fought, and died to end it.
The truth is, our own birth certificate, the Declaration of Independence, was designed to sail high, flash across the sky, and crack open a brutally racist world.
We are not a racist nation. We are a nation that wars against racism. Human history is barbaric, and our job, as Americans, is to struggle to make people freer. Our history is filled with people who never stopped trying. Not perfect people. Good people.
and another
https://www.uchealth.org/today/wear-a-mask-the-science-that-supports-masks/
just google
peer reviewed article on wearing or not wearing masks for covid protection
you're getting warmer, pederast.
LOL.
Results
A total of 19 randomised controlled trials were included in this study – 8 in community settings, 6 in healthcare settings and 5 as source control. Most of these randomised controlled trials used different interventions and outcome measures. In the community, masks appeared to be effective with and without hand hygiene, and both together are more protective. Randomised controlled trials in health care workers showed that respirators, if worn continually during a shift, were effective but not if worn intermittently. Medical masks were not effective, and cloth masks even less effective. When used by sick patients randomised controlled trials suggested protection of well contacts.
Conclusion
The study suggests that community mask use by well people could be beneficial, particularly for COVID-19, where transmission may be pre-symptomatic. The studies of masks as source control also suggest a benefit, and may be important during the COVID-19 pandemic in universal community face mask use as well as in health care settings. Trials in healthcare workers support the use of respirators continuously during a shift. This may prevent health worker infections and deaths from COVID-19, as aerosolisation in the hospital setting has been documented.
so at best, it's inconclusive and is basically a guess.
so as i've suspected all along, masks are effective as a method for CONTROLLING people.
for controlling the spread of the virus?
not proven conclusively.
thanks for playing, pederast.
well, they appear to be holding another contest for the dumbest fuck on MSDNC.:
MSNBC: There Is Zero Evidence That Black Lives Matter Advocated Violence Against The Police
https://www.air.tv/watch?v=I1RQTLW4Tm68Zs2JA9NONw
following up on rrb Wrong AGAIN "pastor"
A systematic review of randomized controlled clinical trials on use of respiratory protection by healthcare workers, sick patients and community members was conducted. Articles were searched on Medline and Embase using key search terms
That is a review searching databases, e.g. data mining, not a controlled clinical study. Not even close to determining if masks are effective in the general public.
Keep trying.
FACT: the ONLY clinical trial was completed last month in Denmark using 6,000 individuals. It was much awaited and after it was completed and submitted the same journals wouldn't publish for peer review that had previously published a faulty HCQ "study" which they then withdrew. Obviously published FOR political purposes.
Speculation is that the new Danish study was censored for not producing the politically correct results, again for political purposes. Hopefully it see's the light of day, this is too important.
Science in 2020
Just keep googling and looking rat, and by the way, I found and was confused by this:
"Medical masks were not effective, and cloth masks even less effective."
But then I found it contradicted in the very next paragraph.
The 19-year-old arrested for child porn who allegedly wanted to assassinate Joe Biden is a Bernie Sanders supporter
https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2020/10/24/the-19-year-old-arrested-for-child-porn-who-allegedly-wanted-to-assassinate-joe-biden-is-a-bernie-sanders-supporter/
Yes, you can find some articles claiming to be peer reviewed that debunk mask wearing, but the majority of peer reviewed articles strongly recommend it.
That hold true too for climate change.
Fake science vs. real science.
rrb said...
The 19-year-old arrested for child porn who allegedly wanted to assassinate Joe Biden is a Bernie Sanders supporter
Party of pedophiles
and by the way, I found and was confused by this:
"Medical masks were not effective, and cloth masks even less effective."
But then I found it contradicted in the very next paragraph.
thank you for making my point.
even the mask advocates who are supposed to come up with the marching orders used to make us wear them can't make up their fucking minds.
geezus. government get's it wrong so much more often than it gets it right, so the solution is obviously moat government.
I'll save fucked up the trouble......the preponderance of studies and science all reveal thet masks can and do slow the spread of Covid....the only ones questioning it are trump slurping assholes who have trouble thinking question it and scream my rights are infringed......BWAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!! Stupid beyond words....
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/covid-19-coronavirus-why-wearing-masks-controversial
You left off cannibals. They enjoy eating children too.
and climate change.
the study of which would have us believe that slightly over 100 years of industrialization could severely impact a planet that is 4.5 BILLION years old. and has gone through countless climate cycles before humans walked the earth.
probably the greatest con ever pulled. at least measured by the reaction of those who are questioned about it.
https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2020/10/24/the
More bullshit fake news from rat the dumb fuck.....No different than trump claiming fauci is a democrat.....complete BULL!!!!!
The lying POS "pastor" james said:
Yes, you can find some articles claiming to be peer reviewed that debunk mask wearing, but the majority of peer reviewed articles strongly recommend it.
There isn't a SINGLE PEER REVIEWED study that established the effectiveness of masks.
"articles" are just opinions.
One study was undergone and completed. The so called gold standard Fauci claims needs to be done on everything. The peer review journals are holding it up and refusing to publish. Probably because the results don't match what articles speculate.
"Science" in 2020
I can't wait to watch Cuties on Netflix. I getting a woody just thinking about it.
probably the greatest con ever pulled.
BWAAAAAAAAAA!!!! The ag school drop out posts his out his ass opinion.....BTW.....yes humans dumping trillions of tons of C02 into the atmosphere can cause temperatures to rise.....Evidence the PPM of CO2 rising every year demonstrates impact to the worlds atmosphere !!!!!
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide Even a dummy like you can understand the graph......BWAAAAAAAAA!!!!!
More COVID Censorship: Controversial Danish Mask Study Hits Publication Blockade
Amid the rush to force everyone to wear face masks to “stop the spread” of the coronavirus, very few people stopped to ask if there was any actual data to support that demand. Anthony Fauci, the joyless worrywart in FEDGOV’s health apparat who demands that anything remotely enjoyable be forbidden forthwith, went so far as to say that there was no need for any scientific study of mask effectiveness.
“I would not want to do a randomized controlled study because that would mean having people not wear masks and see if they do better,” said Fauci according to a Breitbart report in July.
He also said, on the subject of randomized controlled studies of mask effectiveness: “Right now, I’m convinced enough in the summation and totality of the data that has been analyzed by meta-analysis that I’m convinced that the benefit of wearing a mask clearly is there and is better than not wearing a mask.”
This from the same man who in the past dismissed the findings of meta-analyses and observational studies of hydroxychloroquine as non-scientific. In those cases, Fauci has claimed, only randomized controlled studies should be considered because they are “the gold standard.”
Apparently, not when it comes to masks, however. This is more hypocrite than Hippocrates.
Pesky scientists in Denmark, not persuaded by Fauci’s fulminations and flip-flops, went ahead and performed a randomized controlled study of masks for themselves to see how well they might work at thwarting the virus.
The results, now, are in. But we can’t see them because establishment-connected peer-reviewed journals won’t publish the results.
....
“The study was initiated at the end of April after a grant of five million kroner [around $800,000] from the Salling Foundations. It involved as many as 6,000 Danes, half of whom had to wear masks in the public space over a long period of time. The other half was the control group. A large part of the test participants were employees of Salling Groups supermarkets…. The study and its size are unique in the world, and the purpose was once and for all to try to clarify the extent to which the use of masks in public space provides protection against corona infection.”
full article:
https://thenewamerican.com/more-covid-censorship-controversial-danish-mask-study-hits-publication-blockade/
Yes, you can find some articles claiming to be peer reviewed that debunk mask wearing, but the majority of peer reviewed articles strongly recommend it.
Articles are not peer reviewed, studies are.
Amusing your expertise coming from a major denier of science!!!!!! Yeah GW has hundreds of peer reviewed pieces and now question what the majority of science has concluded...Masks slow the spread of covid.....what more do you need or you just don't care about your fellow man!!!!!!!
Yep.....that donnie the trumped is certainly leading the GOP down the road of the Whigs!!!!!!!!!! BWAAAAAAPAAAAAA!!!
As Governor Resists Mask Mandate, Iowans Sour on the GOP
Reynolds, Hayley campaign for Ernst as U.S. Senate race tightens
NEWTON, Iowa — As Iowa set a record for patients hospitalized with COVID-19, Gov. Kim Reynolds appeared at an indoor fundraiser for the Republican Party this week, just days after joining President Donald Trump at one of his huge rallies in Des Moines, where she tossed hats to the clamorous crowd.
At neither event were social distancing or face masks high priorities. The rally last week defied guidelines by the White House’s own health experts that crowds in central Iowa be limited to 25.
Iowa’s governor is not on the ballot next month. But her defiant attitude toward the advice of health experts on how to fight the coronavirus outbreak, as her state sees a grim tide of new cases and deaths, may be dragging down fellow Republicans who are running, including Trump and Sen. Joni Ernst.
Reynolds, the first woman to lead Iowa, is an avatar of the president’s approach to the pandemic, refusing to issue mandates and flouting the guidance of infectious disease experts, who say that universal masking and social distancing are essential to limiting the virus’s spread. Defying that advice has eroded support for both Trump and Reynolds in Iowa, especially among voters over 65, normally a solid Republican constituency, according to public and private polls.
Another reason to think a Biden victory is "in the cards":
Notice, Ch, that the red at the end of your favorite graph (the one at the top) has now completely disappeared.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/
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