For example, we can look at North Carolina, and see that Democrats have a 10.5-percentage-point lead over Republicans in early voting. That seems great for Democrats.
But we could also contextualize this by noting that at a similar point in 2016, Democrats had a 13.1-percentage-point lead there in early voting. In other words, Democrats are doing worse than they were at this point four years ago (and much worse than they were in 2012).
You can see similar stories developing in Florida and Nevada, where you can make a case that things look roughly the same as they did about a week out from Election Day in 2016.
This precisely illustrates my point. The claim is not “the early vote actually is good news for Republicans.” The point is “the early vote is not even news.” We don’t know in these states what share of Republicans, Democrats, or independents are voting for Republicans or Democrats, and we don’t know how many voters for any party are going to end up voting on Nov. 3. This is all speculation dressed up as news. We’ve waited this long for actual election returns; we can wait eight more day.
Vote early, vote often is the famous quote. As Trende is pointing out, attempting to analyze early voting allows people to see what they want to see. If you look overall and see an early voting advantage for Democrats that could seem like good news for Democrats. Many Democrats are jumping on mail in and early voting numbers as a sign of a major wave election for Democrats. The mail in voting, especially, has been advantageous to Democrats.
But as pointed out by Trende, those advantages are not atypical of normal election advantages for Democrats with early voting, or at least they are not atypical of the previous few elections. Given all of the polling that states that more Democrats would vote by mail and vote early than Republicans and more Republicans would wait and vote in person, it seems counterintuitive that Democrats don't hold a bigger than normal lead in early voting. So if one was so inclined, they could see the early voting numbers as good for Republicans.
If nothing else, it would appear that polling (that suggested a huge mail-in and early voting advantage for Democrats) might not have been very accurate, which should make us take other portions of the polling with a larger grain of salt than we might normally do. As pointed out by many of the deep divers of the election projection world, most everything "other" than polling looks good for Trump and the GOP.
The reality is that while we have heard much about robust early voting, it seems that we are not hearing all that much about one side or the other having an advantage. That tells me that neither side is jumping up and down about the early voting numbers, nor is either side necessarily panicking. There is many different ways to look at and analyze early voting data. As Sean points out, it might just be best to wait the extra eight days before reading too much into anything.
95 comments:
i don't know how you can tell us to ignore the historical advantage that early voting ALWAYS provides to democrats.
the alky has assured us that this remains in place - that early voting ALWAYS favors democrats, and as our resident political expert and Presidential historian we ignore him at our peril.
early voting is guaranteed to favor the left, Trump is toast, and it's 'Slow Joe an da Ho' BY A LANDSLIDE!!!11!
I had already read your friend Trende's article before you featured it. The best part of it, I found, was this [with my comments in brackets]:
"We might expect Republicans to vote against Donald Trump at higher rates than they did in 2016, [Indeed, they definitely will! Many have said they will.] and a critical mass of independents seems to have soured on the president [Absolutely true, they definitely have soured on him.]. Maybe Republicans are using in-person early voting, cannibalizing their traditional Election Day vote [meaning their Election Day vote will not be so great, which is good news to me]. Perhaps the anticipated Trumpian improvement with African Americans and Hispanic(sic) will fail to materialize, and he’ll do worse than in 2016 with non-whites [I think so and I hope so]."
I had already read it. I have seen information on the younger vote turnout is a higher percentage than in the last few elections. Young people have a long history of voting liberal. The Democrats are spending more than the Republicans, because they have more money than the Republicans. And they are actively recruiting young Democrats.
The deep diving people I have seen, are saying that the Trump base is not getting big enough to win. History shows that an incumbent needs more than 44%, to win reelection.
The President is dependent upon the late turnout on election day. In my opinion, they are not as motivated by dislike for Biden, as it was the dislike for Hillary Clinton.
He's also losing a small percentage of the 65+ vote, because he mishandled the covid-19 pandemic, and the death rate among women who lost their hubby to the covid-19 pandemic.
And one other thing, is that this country is not as white. With the exception of the Hispanic population in Southern Florida of Cuban and Venezuelan American voters, they may swing Texas and Arizona.
Biden is percieved as a moderate Democrat, like Bill Clinton and Barack Obama.
I'm still not sure what will happen, but if I was going to bet on the election, I would put my money on a Democratic sweep.
So would a lot of betters.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
Well Reverend...
The same polling that is showing big leads for the Democrat, also suggest that more than 80% of Democrats will have voted prior to election day, versus just over 50% of Republicans.
If that is the case, then early voting should be favoring Democrats by between 20-25 percent if they want that lead to hold through election day. Right now it's less than that (especially in the battleground areas) and the GOP seems to be gaining a little bit every day. Democrats were probably "first in line" to vote early and probably sent their ballots back the first day they could.
Polling (to the degree it can be trusted) is showing only a marginal difference between Democrats and Republicans staying home (92-5 for Biden vs 90-7 for Trump). Independents are the key for the potential Biden victory (in my humble opinion). That is where he needs to overperform Clinton.
And then there's this:
Weekly Average of Virus Infections Hit New High
11:30 am
The seven-day moving average of new daily coronavirus cases stood at 68,767 after Sunday — a level not seen since the highest peak in late July, according to CNN’s analysis of data by Johns Hopkins University.
First Read:
The 2020 campaign is closing on the coronavirus.
The Swing States Where the Pandemic Is Raging
11:15 am
“Several states that are likely to decide which party controls Washington next year have exceptionally large coronavirus outbreaks or are seeing cases spike,” Axios reports.
“Most voters have already made up their minds. But for those few holdouts, the state of the pandemic could ultimately help them make a decision as they head to the polls — and that’s not likely to help President Trump.”
__________
He has richly earned and deserves that.
How the Trump campaign used big data to deter Miami-Dade’s Black communities from voting.
Donald Trump’s team knew they couldn’t win the 2016 election simply by persuading people to vote for Trump.
They also had to make sure Hillary Clinton supporters didn’t come out to the polls.
So the campaign and its allies used big data to target Black communities along Miami-Dade County’s historically disenfranchised Interstate 95 corridor. There, residents became some of the 12.3 million unwitting subjects of a groundbreaking nationwide experiment: A computer algorithm that analyzed huge sums of potential voters’ personal data — things they’d said and done on Facebook, credit card purchases, charities they supported, and even personality traits — decided they could be manipulated into not voting. They probably wouldn’t even know it was happening.
Internally, Trump’s staff described this part of their operation with a term that went beyond the usual strategy of negative campaigning.
They called it “deterrence.”
One ad, which was produced by a pro-Trump super PAC working with Cambridge Analytica, shows a young Black actress apparently making a campaign commercial for Clinton. “Hillary Clinton is honest and trustworthy,” the woman says before trailing off and asking for a cut.
“What’s the problem?” the voice of an imaginary director off-screen says.
“I can’t say these words,” the actress replies. “I don’t believe what I’m saying. … I’m not that good of an actress.”
Other ads were outright false.
In a video by the same super PAC, Make America Number 1, Michelle Obama is shown saying: “If you can’t run your own house, you certainly can’t run the White House.” The ad claimed Obama was talking about Hillary Clinton, and presumably making a reference to the Monica Lewinsky scandal. But a review of her full comments from 2007 showed the future first lady was discussing the challenges of raising her own family.
The spot aired for two weeks on Florida television stations and was also posted on Facebook. Obama has high approval ratings, especially among Black women.
In internal documents released last week by Kaiser, the super PAC wrote that the ad was “very effective in persuading women in our principal audience not to vote for Hillary Clinton.”
Messages attacking the Clinton Foundation with unproven allegations of corruption were specifically shown to Black voters in Little Haiti, Trump campaign sources told Bloomberg in 2016. In Little Haiti, more than 28,000 residents were marked for deterrence, the leaked campaign data shows. Half were Black.
The anti-Clinton messaging, which included a campaign stop by Trump, was “really hard for folks from the Haitian community to overlook in order to vote for her,” said Vanessa Joseph, chairperson of the Haitian American Voter Empowerment Coalition. “That’s not to say the entire Haitian community felt that way, but certainly enough of them did feel that way to either vote for another candidate, or just abstain from voting.”
Clinton received roughly 6,000 fewer votes than Obama in the state House district that includes Little Haiti, according to Steve Schale, a Democratic operative in Florida who analyzes election data.
Trump, however, didn’t pick up more support than GOP nominee Mitt Romney — meaning that he made gains because Haitian Americans didn’t turn out, not because they flipped to his side.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article246429000.html
bottom line...
The polls regarding how people intend to vote (with what we know about early voting so far) seem to be well off the mark. Or if what we are seeing represents 80% of Democrats, then Democrats are looking at a record low turnout overall unless this next week is huge for them.
We must Believe "No Fracking" Joe
His new line is , just on Federal Lands.
Ok, end 11% of all cracking in the US.
They called it “deterrence.”
the rest of us call it BULLSHIT.
nice fable alky.
Scott, where did you get this from?
The polls regarding how people intend to vote (with what we know about early voting so far) seem to be well off the mark.
Even 4 years ago, the last polls showed it was very very close. The actual outcome was only off a few thousand votes. 72,000 votes in 3 states gave him the electoral college victory.
Florida Republicans are pouring out of the trenches.
After weeks of Democrats outvoting them by mail, Republican voters stormed early voting precincts in person this week, taking large bites out of their opponents’ historic lead in pre-Election Day ballots.
The Democratic advantage was still huge as of Saturday morning: 387,000 ballots. But that’s a 21 percent reduction from Democrats’ high water mark, set three days prior. The election is in 10 days.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/republicans-crash-florida-early-vote-211320803.html
Just a simple question for Lil Schitty......It certainly appears 2020 will be a high turnout year for voting.....Who generally benefits from that scenario???????
October 26, 1947 Hillary Clinton's Birthday.
October 26, 2020, Pres. Trump gift to Her., Amy Barrett USSC Confirmation.
Sundown Joe Says He's Running Against "George" -- Presumably One of the Bushes -- as His Wife and the Interviewer-cum-Campaign-Aide Desperately Whisper "Trump" to Remind Him What Decade We're In
http://ace.mu.nu/archives/390977.php
Look at this word salad nonsense.
"James October 22, 2020 at 6:11 PM
Biden has said he would listen to the scientists.
If there is evidence that the opinion of most scientists has changed, Biden will listen to them."
James , You do realize how stupid your statement makes you look.
"opinions" are not "science".
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/25/biden-trump-suburbs-race-fear-432446
Donald Trump "wouldn't know a suburb unless he took a wrong turn," Democratic nominee Joe Biden said during a television interview, slamming the president's view of the suburbs as outdated and "not who we are."
Biden made the comments during an interview on "60 Minutes," which aired on Sunday. Trump also sat for an interview with the news show, but left abruptly before his portion was finished; as a preemptive strike, the White House released Trump's interview with Lesley Stahl days before it aired on CBS.
"He wouldn't know a suburb unless he took a wrong turn. Go out in the suburbs now. It's not 1950," Biden told Norah O’Donnell. "There's a lot of reasons people are upset. A lot of good reasons. All he wants to do is take that sort of subliminal fear out there and say, 'It's because — because of that guy, or because of that woman.' That's not who we are as a country."
He said today that the suburban women should be scared of 5 story "development", in other words, dark skinned people will rape you and sell drugs to your children!
🤣Four more years of George, ah ygm, George ygm, ah,...." Brain dead Fucktard Joe.
Roger, what 6 NFL Teams are your favorite Team , this years?
Stupid Republicans.
Should any political party attempt to abolish social security, unemployment insurance and eliminate labor laws and farm programs, you would not hear of that party again in our political history. There is a tiny splinter group, of course, that believes that you can do these things. Among them are a few Texas oil millionaires, and an occasional politician or businessman from other areas. Their number is negligible and they are stupid.
He's not the outcomer who is going to drain the swamp. Most people are getting sick and tired of his chaotic behavior. He is still trying to divide the country.
Former Vice President Biden is taking a different approach. He keeps saying that he will work with people who support him and those who did not.
The Republicans are trying to portray Biden as a muppet of the left wing of the Democratic party. But given his 45 career he's not a communist!
Yahoo News:
Fauci Says We’re Still In First Wave
1:30 pm EDT
Dr Anthony Fauci told Yahoo News the country is still experiencing its first wave of coronavirus infections, as cases surge in dozens of states.
Said Fauci:
“I look at it more as an elongated and exacerbation of the original first wave. We never really cleared and got down to a very low baseline… No matter how you look at it, it’s not good news.”
I like the Los Angeles Chargers. Their new rookie Quarterback scored 35 points in one quarter!
Go Dodgers!::
So the NBA @ MLB champions will drive the President crazy on Twitter
Trump said today that we are turning the corner on the covid covid covid covid.
On MSNBC the reporter said that in 2016, Hillary was ahead by 3.2% today it's 8.7%
Chiefs are a Defensive scoring Machine.
And a new punch a run game.
The national polls
If I bet on sports I would bet on the Kansas City Chiefs to win the NFL championship.
Scott,
Minnesota Republican Jason Lewis, the party's nominee for Senate, was rushed into emergency surgery Monday to fix a severe internal hernia, his campaign announced in a statement.
Lewis, a former one-term congressman, is running against Democratic Sen. Tina Smith, who is running for a full term after winning a special election in 2018. Lewis' campaign manager said in a statement Monday morning that Lewis was rushed to the hospital with severe abdominal pain, and doctors determined it required immediate surgery.
"Following tests and examination, doctors determined that he is suffering from a severe internal hernia, a diagnosis which they indicated is life-threatening if not treated quickly," said Tom Szymanski, Lewis' campaign manager. "As such, Congressman Lewis was rushed into emergency surgery which he is now undergoing.
"Prior to being taken to the operating room, Jason was in good spirits, optimistic, and true to form, he was speculating about when he could resume campaigning, eager to continue fighting for his fellow Minnesotans," Szymanski added. He said the campaign would release more information as it became available.
In a post on Twitter, Smith said she and her husband, Archie, "are wishing Jason Lewis a successful surgery and a speedy recovery."
Lewis was defeated for reelection to his House seat in 2018 but faced little opposition to becoming the party's nominee to face Smith, who was appointed in 2018 to fill Al Franken's former seat.
Praying for him.
Black Americans are fired up and flocking to the polls
By Faith Karimi, CNN
Updated 3 hours ago Oct 26, 2020
(CNN) - Dave Richards arrived at his polling place before dawn, carrying a blue lawn chair and a giant bottle of water.
It was about 6 a.m. on October 12 -- the first day of early voting in Georgia -- and the business consultant was ready for a long wait in the Atlanta suburb of Smyrna. After three hours in line, Richards, 51, voted in what he called the most crucial election of his lifetime.
"This election is more important than the 2008 one for Barack Obama. That 2008 one was for change and making history. This election is for saving the US," Richards said, citing concerns about racial justice and suppression of Black voters. "The racial divide that is going on, we need someone who is going to be a leader for everyone, not just their base."
Across the country, Black voters are turning out in huge numbers. The stakes this year are especially high, they say, and nothing less than their health and safety is on the ballot.
In interviews with CNN, they said they're worried about racial injustice and police brutality, they feel devalued by a President who has hesitated to condemn White supremacy and they fear losing health benefits if the Supreme Court overturns the Affordable Care Act.
Many said this feels like the most important election of their lifetimes.
During a raging pandemic that has killed more than 223,000 Americans and ravaged Black communities, many Black voters could have mailed in their ballots. But after recent headlines about postal workers dumping undelivered mail and President Donald Trump's debunked claims questioning the integrity of mail-in ballots, many don't trust that process.
"The pandemic did not scare me," Richards said. "The way that 45 (Trump) was talking about mail-in voting and lying about it, I wanted to do it (vote) in person."
Many Black voters say they don't trust Trump
So far this fall, African American voters are rushing to the polls at much higher rates than they did four years ago, when Hillary Clinton was on the ballot.
By Tuesday, more than 601,000 Black Americans had voted early in Georgia compared with about 286,240 two weeks before the 2016 election. In Maryland, about 192,775 had voted compared with 18,430. And California had over 303,145 -- up from more than 106,360 two weeks before the election four years ago. That's according to Catalist, a data company that provides analytics to Democrats, academics and progressive advocacy organizations.
Keith Green, 65, went to the polls last week in Overland Park, Kansas, to vote in person -- for several reasons.
"We have a racist President who lies too much," he said. "He keeps on saying he doesn't trust the Democrats. Well after everything that has gone on with the ballots, I don't trust the Republicans."
Trump has repeatedly said he's done more for African Americans than any president since Abraham Lincoln. As evidence, he has cited low unemployment among African Americans, criminal justice reforms and increased federal funding for historically Black colleges and universities.
Some prominent Black Republicans, including Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina and Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Jay Cameron, have sung his praises.
But most Black people aren't convinced. Gallup polling over the summer found that 87% of Black Americans disapproved of his job as President.
Green said the Trump administration has left him worried about the future for his daughter and his two grandchildren. He believes Trump has emboldened White supremacists and set the nation backwards on the path for civil rights and equality.
"The last four years have been so bad," he said. "We can't stand four more years of that."
.
Other concerns include health care and the makeup of the courts
Wilburn Wilkins, 61, woke up early on October 7, put on two masks and headed to a voting center in Joliet, Illinois, with his wife. Although the retiree has pre-existing conditions, he wanted to vote in person.
"We have a President who is totally tearing apart our whole democratic Constitution," Wilkins told CNN. "Many people are dying because he is ignoring the Covid pandemic, ignoring the fact that people are unemployed, need financial resources. We need a change."
Like Green, he believes the White House's decisions have undermined Black people and other minorities.
"The nomination of a conservative to the Supreme Court, stacking of lower courts in order to have cronies to carry out conservative ideas, most likely will affect Black and Brown people," Wilkins said. "They'll affect things such as civil rights, Obamacare -- all of these things have the potential to negatively impact minorities. "
There's a lot at stake in this election, said playwright and composer Nolan Williams Jr., 51, who lives in Washington, DC, and plans to vote in person on Election Day.
Williams has composed an anthem, "I Have a Right to Vote," to raise awareness of voter suppression and motivate Black people to cast their ballots. It features original "Hamilton" cast member Christopher Jackson, entertainer Billy Porter and others reciting the words of abolitionist Frederick Douglass, the late Rep. John Lewis and the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
"For African Americans in this country, voting is the most effective way for us to effect the change we seek. Given the events of this summer, it is crucial for our community to translate our social protests into political action," Williams said, referring to the deaths of George Floyd and Breonna Taylor and the unrest that followed.
"Health care, fair housing, including equal access to home loans, poverty, the environment, meaningful reforms to our justice system, and improvements in community policing are all issues that make this election uber critical," he said.
Some voters are mistrustful after the 2018 election
In Georgia, many Black voters say they have been motivated to vote in person by what happened in 2018, when Republican Brian Kemp ran against Democrat Stacey Abrams for governor while serving as the state's chief elections officer.
Kemp, who as Georgia's secretary of state had promoted and enforced some of the nation's most restrictive voting laws, was accused repeatedly before and during the campaign of seeking to suppress the minority vote. Kemp won narrowly, and Abrams argued that he had used his position to suppress Black votes.
Kee-Kee Osborne, 42, of Mableton, Georgia, said that's one of the reasons she voted in person this month -- to make sure her voice counts.
"For me, the outcome of this election will be the difference between truth and deception, decency and dishonor, inclusion and intolerance," said Osborne, who works as an information technology manager.
"The words, actions, and policies from the current (Trump) administration have deepened the marginalization of Black people over the last four years. It is imperative for our community to be engaged in the process because we have an opportunity to vote for change on every level."
In Los Angeles, business manager and travel blogger Nancy Gakere, 47, woke up early one day this month to drop off her ballot. She also signed up for a tracking service to ensure her vote is counted.
"I wanted to make sure I personally deliver my vote," she said. "This election is so important to Black people because of current events like the killing of George Floyd and Breonna Taylor (and) the way the coronavirus pandemic has disproportionately affected Black people," she said. "This has exposed the long-standing institutional racism and racial inequalities that exist in America."
But for Gakere, the most important issue is preserving health care under the Affordable Care Act.
"We have family members with pre-existing conditions, and we feel that it's at risk of being overturned," she said.
With Election Day on the horizon, Wilkins has a message for Black voters.
"Many people have died for us to have that right to vote. We cannot take it for granted. This is a privilege that was not offered to our ancestors," the Illinois man said. "They're trying to stop us from voting right now by gerrymandering, intimidation, voter suppression in plain sight -- all things that have been done in the past to our ancestors. That tells you how important it is for us to vote."
TM & © 2020 Turner Broadcasting System, Inc.
A WarnerMedia Company.
All Rights Reserved
Trump is not getting an endorsement by the African American voters
25 % GDP Nov. 1st Report.
Joe will end 11% of US Cracking.
Making the USA dependent on Hostile countries again.
Stupid talking points
Both are facts.
Sorry if the facts offend you Roger.
Dystopian Joe Biden the coming US "Dark Winter" under his Presidency
Slow Joe in the last Debate go Trucked by Trump.
Joe demanded a video of him saying he would ban Fracking.
CNN Ran it. Trump was/is right.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?reload=9&v=24pnUmUu95M
Oh Joe, took his depends to a gun fight
NOW THIS IS INTERESTING...
News Media Adopts Trump’s Framing of Climate
Emily Atkin, proprietor of the excellent Heated newsletter, analyzed 30 news articles about Donald Trump and Joe Biden’s climate policy exchange at the last debate.
All 30 discussed how Biden’s climate policy could harm the oil industry.
Only five discussed how Trump’s climate policy — which is non-existent — could harm all of us.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5vpP-B5JaM4"
Promised, but, un promises in the last few weeks.
Why Joe?
Promised, but, un promises in the last few weeks.
Trump promised a vaccine by election day......Why goat fucker?????????
NOW THIS IS INTERESTING..
News Media Adopts Trump’s Framing of Climate Policy
October 26, 2020 at 3:02 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard
Yep "News Media Adopts Trump’s Framing of Climate Policy" is a direct quote from Goddard. unattributed.
as it is Goddard's description that the newsletter is "excellent"
In fact his entire posting was a direct off-topic copy paste from political_lire
The lying POS "pastor" continues his serial plagiarism.
And spam
What a POS
Could report this all day but EVERYONE here knows it.
ROFLMFAO at the POS !!!
James, I am extremely green.
I haven't waited to be told how to live cleanly.
Oddly , you are still waiting.
* Could report this all day but EVERYONE here knows it
with the probable exception of VERY lo iq, he protects his BUTT BUDDY james
ROFLMFAO !!!
The millions of food miles one poster consumes every year to stuff his gut.
Yet, my food never leaves my lands.
Blogger Roger Amick said...
Stupid talking points
oh you mean the drivel about your team 'owning' the black vote?
yeah alky, galactically stupid.
LOL.
God Dayum..... spamming fest by the goat fucker and just fucked up is telling !!!!!!! Amy will be confirmed as the official end of the GOP as we know it!!!!!!!! BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!
Well I like votes better than polls but just saw this
Chris Buskirk
@thechrisbuskirk
BREAKING: Trump now leads in PA
Trump 48.4
Biden 45.5
JJ: 3
Internals show Trump closing strong with over 65 & women. This poll had Biden leading 10 days ago. Results suggest that soft Trump supporters & previous undecideds are breaking for DJT.
FANTASTIC !!! lots of good news today
Can someone wake-up Joe and let him know ?
Killing Jobs in the Energy Sector was a very stupid move by Biden, Hillary stupid.
Obama was re-elected with a 7.8 % unemployment rate.
Trumps looks like it will be about the same .
Considering trump started with a 4.7 % rate given to him by Obama...that argument even for a dumb fuck like you is stupid!!!!!!
The undecided voters are almost non existent in this year
Biden has 50%+ in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
The President can't win without any of them.
Unless an October surprise happens within a few days, Biden will win the electoral college victory.
In 2016 Clinton never achieved a 50% margin. When Cohen published the investigation in the email. 7 days later she lost the electoral college victory.
Mark Meadows said the covid-19 was not under control.
BREAKING: Trump now leads in PA
TRUMP INTERNAL POLL!!!!!!! BWAQAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!
Biden is speaking out right now!
Well I like several poll aggregates better than one poll and that indicates Bide is still leading in PA:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html
Rasmussen said that
The White House is not doing anything to stop the pandemic. Mark Meadows said that yesterday on CNN
Joe is out?
Where?, huge crowd?
49.9%
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.): “I’m talking about stopping fracking as soon as we possibly can. I’m talking about telling the fossil fuel industry that they are going to stop destroying this planet — no ifs, buts and maybes about it.”
Former vice president Joe Biden: “So am I.”
Sanders: “Well, I’m not sure your proposal does that. …”
Biden: “No more — no new fracking.”
The Biden campaign has been following the CDC recommendations with masking, limiting crowd size and social distancing.
The President's campaign events are super spreader events. In the states where he held the campaign events have had a spike of infections.
Today Biden said he is not banning fracking or restricting oil production
😂🤣😃😄😅The Biden campaign has been following the CDC recommendations with masking, limiting crowd size and social distancing.😆😄😃🤣😂😁
anonymous said...
BREAKING: Trump now leads in PA
TRUMP INTERNAL POLL!!!!!!! BWAQAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!
Hate to break it to you VERY lo iq but poll "internals" does not mean "Trump internal poll".
ROFLMFAO !!!
you must do this on purpose.
No one can be so consistently stupid.
You get to decide who to support in this election. Your union endorses Joe Biden because of his positions on key carpenter issues like safety, opposing "Right-to-Work", protecting union apprenticeships, and supporting Davis-Bacon prevailing wage.
Learn more: https://action.carpenters.org/endorsements
My union has endorsed Biden and Harris!
Socialist Democrat Presidential Debates.
"
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.): “I’m talking about stopping fracking as soon as we possibly can. I’m talking about telling the fossil fuel industry that they are going to stop destroying this planet — no ifs, buts and maybes about it.”
Former vice president Joe Biden: “So am I.”
Sanders: “Well, I’m not sure your proposal does that. …”
Biden: “No more — no new fracking.”
Which Joe is the Joe you believe?
Internals are a troll
""No one can be so consistently stupid."" JFD
Roger, says hold my beer.
Months ago kputz shut up
Your "union" is against freedom to work without the union income shake down .
Published on 26 October 2020 at 10:10
Copyright AFP 2017-2020. All rights reserved.
Facebook posts shared more than 30,000 times claim Joe Biden wants to ban fracking, a controversial oil and gas drilling technique. But he has repeatedly stated that it is not his policy to ban the practice, though he does want to limit new projects on federal land and move toward cleaner forms of energy.
“Joe Biden wants to BAN FRACKING!” Charlie Kirk of the conservative student organization Turning Point USA, who gave opening remarks at the Republican National Convention, said in an October 23, 2020 Facebook post.
Screenshot of a Facebook post, taken on October 26, 2020
The post includes a clip from a July 2019 Democratic debate when Biden was asked whether there would be any place for fossil fuels including coal and fracking in a Biden administration.
"No, we would -- we would work it out. We would make sure it's eliminated and no more subsidies for either one of those, either -- any fossil fuel," Biden said.
The posts came after Biden and Trump sparred over fracking during the October 22 presidential debate, from the 1:25:44 marker in this video. Biden challenged Trump to “show the tape” of him saying he wanted to ban fracking.
One Facebook post referred to the tape and called Biden “a fracking liar.”
Similar claims appeared on a website here and on Facebook here.
But Biden stated during the presidential debate: “I have never said I oppose fracking.”
Asked by the moderator whether he would rule out banning the practice, he said: “I do rule out banning fracking,” and spoke of the need for industries to transition to zero emissions.
“What I will do with fracking over time is make sure that we can capture the emissions from fracking, capture the emissions from gas. We can do that and we can do that by investing money, and doing it, but it’s a transition to that,” he added.
During an interview with a Pittsburgh-based television station earlier this year, Biden was also asked if he intended to stop fracking.
“No I wouldn’t shut down this industry,” Biden answered.
“I know our Republican friends have tried to say I said it. I said I would not do any new leases on federal land. Ninety percent of the leases are not on federal land to begin with.”
An ad about Biden's stance on fracking which ran over the summer was debunked by AFP Fact Check here.
His running mate Kamala Harris said on October 23 that Biden wants to ban oil subsidies, “but he will not ban fracking in America.”
The campaign’s climate plan calls for ending subsidies for fossil fuels as part of its pledge to reach a “100 percent clean energy economy” and net zero emissions by 2050. It does not mention fracking, but vows a ban on new oil and gas permits for public lands and waters.
Fracking led to a US drilling and oil production boom, but environmentalists worry about the level of methane it produces, contributing to global warming, and other dangers.
Oil and gas extraction directly employs more than 150,000 people, although the industry has said millions of jobs depend on it.
Roger Amick said...
My union has endorsed Biden and Harris!
alkies have a union ?
must be in California
Sympathy vote for Hunter ?
I read some national news organization is getting ready to play recorded voice mails from Joes campaign surrogates regarding Hunters corruption.
Do underage Chinese girls get interviewed next ???
Or does China have them in camps ??
Funny Joe has announced no more in-person events until after the election... Almost like he is hiding.
Over the past several years, billionaires have donated millions to the right-wing Midwestern governors pushing for state right-to-work laws, while at the same time bankrolling the current Supreme Court case, Janus v. AFSCME, which will determine whether public employee unions can require dues from nonmembers to support union activities from which all employees benefit.
Their efforts are not the product of a post-Citizens United landscape, but rather part of a decades-long project. For more than 70 years, supposedly nonpartisan groups, big businesses, wealthy donors and small firms have been devoting time and money to guarantee that Americans would have the right to work — for less.
So-called right-to-work laws have always been sold as all-American protections of individual freedoms. But they are in fact dangerous, confusing restrictions on Americans’ basic rights on the job. These statutes empower employers by undermining workers’ right to organize and rolling back the gains — better wages, working conditions and hours — that unions fought to secure.
* Or maybe it was recorded phone conversations.
So much news it's hard to keep up.
Right-to-work laws undermined unions by outlawing seemingly obscure, often confusing contract clauses governing union negotiations. U.S. labor law dictates that nonunion members are covered by the contract that members negotiated and are also represented by the union during managerial disputes. But union negotiations require time and resources, which necessitate dues. “Union-shop” rules ensure everyone who benefits from the union helps pay for it (rather than free-ride on the contributions from others as happens without such membership provisos). Right-to-work laws effectively ban these rules, regardless of what management agrees to and what the majority of a union wants.
Few lawmakers, even in Southern and Southwestern legislatures, considered passing these proposals in the 1940s and 1950s because their constituents considered labor rights sacrosanct. Union members and their allies warned that the right to work really would just give citizens the right to starve, because union-shop clauses were critical to stopping the free-riders who weakened their efforts.
Undaunted, right-to-work proponents shrewdly turned these bills into ballot initiatives. Local civic organizations and Chamber of Commerce affiliates vastly outspent the labor movement on newspaper and radio ads warning that these propositions would free workers from union bosses intent on keeping them from having the freedom to choose whether to be in a union or not. They had powerful allies: American Farm Bureau Federation, National Association of Manufacturers, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, National Labor-Management Foundation, DeMille Political Freedom Foundation and Christian American Association.
Speaking of internals,
I wouldn't want to rain on your parade (oh yes I would), but I JUST saw this:
GOP Pollster Has Biden Up BIG
October 26, 2020 at 4:36 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard
A new Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump nationally by 14 points,
55% to 41%.
and for your further enjoyment:
An Anonymous Republican Speaks Out
4:32 pm
Olivia Nuzzi has an excellent look at the “tortured self-justification of one very powerful Trump-loathing anonymous Republican.”
Said the Republican of President Trump:
“I thought he would lose! I mean, everyone thought he would lose. The idea that he won is still shocking. This is a man who is so completely alien to what this country — the best principles of what this country is about. When I think about the fact that a hundred years from now, people will look back and say, ‘How the f**k did they think this was normal?,’ it makes me sad for the country. He’s a permanent scar on the face of our country.”
Janus v. AFSCME, which will determine whether public employee unions can require dues from nonmembers to support union activities from which all employees benefit.
So public worker unions are formed to protect workers from the government.
And for some reason pay out large amounts to political campaigns. Even if you are not a member of the union.
Political campaigns which are the government.
Whole concept appears corrupt.
Must be democrats involved.
Americans should keep in mind how much American business interests have spent to guarantee the right to work for less and limit democracy on the job and on Election Day. Wages, working-conditions and voter participation remain higher in non-right-to-work states.
But these days when Americans think about threats to democracy, they focus mostly on Russian interference in recent and coming elections. That thinking misses that the homegrown threat may be more subtle, but no less grave. Long before the Supreme Court’s 2010 Citizens United decision spotlighted the issue by unleashing a flood of big business money in politics, wealthy citizens from all over the country funded the right-to-work campaigns intended to undermine the unions that blue-collar Americans used to protect their rights on the job, improve their living standards and participate in civic life.
That money has done much to influence politics at all levels, sowing a distrust in government among working- and middle-class Americans and leaving this country’s institutions vulnerable to the very foreign threats that now dominate the news. But until these domestic threats share the front page with those foreign ones, we won’t truly be able to safeguard our democracy.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/made-by-history/wp/2018/04/24/the-right-to-work-really-means-the-right-to-work-for-less
Right to work for less.
James said...
Speaking of internals,
I wouldn't want to rain on your parade (oh yes I would), but I JUST saw this:
I see you actually forgot to drop the Goddard from one of your posts, but obviously plagiarized the other.
And copied to multiple threads.
So besides being a plagiarizing lying POS "pastor" james
are you also retarded ?
ROFLMFAO !!!
and for your further enjoyment:
An Anonymous Republican Speaks Out
LOL.
anonymous republican "speaks out!"
there i go again, pederast. slapping that knee.
if one is anonymous, how does one "speak out?"
"i'm afraid to be identified, but hear me speak out!"
LOL.
States that have right to work laws have a lower average income rate.
The union movement strengthened the middle class. Since Ronald Reagan took down the airports air control unions, they have been weakened and the middle class has gotten smaller.
I have a defined benefit pension. It's guaranteed for life. If instead you have a 401k it has a limited timeline. When the money is spent on your payment stops forever.
Roger never debated in High School .
Former vice president Joe Biden: “So am I.”
Sanders: “Well, I’m not sure your proposal does that. …”
Biden: “No more — no new fracking..
Right to work for less.
it's called 'freedom and liberty' alky. you wouldn't understand.
and a guy should be able to negotiate his own compensation with being encumbered buy a goonion thug looking to pick his pocket to the tune of $200/mo in dues. $2400.00/year is a vacation for many.
UNIONS ARE SCUM.
*without being encumbered*
No, government employee unions should be allowed, it’s called money laundering ( and my dad was a lifelong member of the NEA). If private sector employees are stupid enough to form a union, so be it
No, government employee unions should be allowed, it’s called money laundering
even FDR opposed public sector unions.
I didn't forget to drop the Goddard. Left it there on purpose.
That particular GOP poll is so important I thought you would not want to miss it, so I put it on two (not multiple) threads.
You're welcome. :-)
';
I’m trying to find the story I read earlier today, where a state gave the teacher’s union a 20% pay hike and now proposing a massive state tax increase
I'm referring of course to my DELIGHTFUL post at 3:46.
Blogger Roger Amick said...
States that have right to work laws have a lower average income rate.
often claimed, NEVER substantiated.
I’m trying to find the story I read earlier today, where a state gave the teacher’s union a 20% pay hike and now proposing a massive state tax increase
Arizona?
The Arizona Education Association (AEA) can breathe a sigh of relief — not because state courts just threw the union’s “InvestinEd” near-$1 billion tax hike plan off the ballot for the second time in a row, but because the court’s scathing rebuke dealt only with this one instance of the union’s misinformation playbook.
Just two years after the Arizona Supreme Court threw out the first iteration of InvestinEd — for failing to disclose to voters that its provisions would have increased taxes on virtually all state taxpayers — the AEA resurrected the initiative this year and managed to gather roughly 400,000 signatures to place it on November’s ballot. But as the court made embarrassingly clear to the union in its recent ruling, those signatures once again sprang up amid flagrant violations of state law and the union’s failure to properly disclose to voters what they had actually snuck into the initiative.
As the court explained, “Instead of identifying all principal provisions in the Initiative’s description, Defendant Invest in Education circulated an opaque ‘Trojan horse’ of a 100-word description, concealing principal provisions of the Initiative” from voters.
Unfortunately for the union, this Trojan horse ran afoul of existing legal standards that require the 100-word voter summaries but frown on those that “creat[e] a significant danger of confusion or unfairness for a reasonable Arizona voter.”
Yet that’s exactly what the union’s official summary did when it left out five separate significant components of what the ballot initiative would have actually done, like hiking up rates not just on individuals (as suggested in the summary) but also on small businesses, and implementing not just what was euphemized to voters as a minor “surcharge,” but rather a permanent and near doubling of the state’s top tax rate.
It’s important to keep in mind exactly what InvestinEd’s plan would have cost Arizonans. All told, it would increase the costs of, and spending on, the state’s K-12 system to the tune of nearly $1 billion. Lest you forget, that’s on top of the annual $650 million that Arizona lawmakers recently authorized for 20% teacher pay raises, plus an additional $370 million a year in K-12 funding restorations. You can read more about the cynical InvestInEd math here.
But far more embarrassing for the union than the violations themselves was the fact that, as the court wrote, the Arizona Supreme Court had already explicitly told the union in 2018 how it could properly reintroduce and describe its measure the next time around, but that “Instead of using the phrasing that had been blessed by the Arizona Supreme Court, [InvestinEd] chose to use different language.”
https://www.yourvalley.net/stories/arizona-court-gives-teachers-union-tax-hike-an-f,178943
Ding..ding..ding..
Winner, winner,
Chicken dinner
RRB and Cali.
That is crazy shit.
Punishing the workers by robbing them to pay a public sector voting block.
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