A leading independent pollster said Saturday that polls might seriously undercount Republican voters in the current political climate.
In a Twitter thread, Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert C. Cahaly said that President Joe Biden’s recent attacks on so-called “MAGA Republicans” will make polling supporters of former President Donald Trump even harder to poll than in previous years. Cahaly pointed out that in the last two presidential election cycles, name-calling and threats from prominent Democrats contributed to the phenomenon of the “shy Trump voter.” But as the 2022 midterms have begun in earnest, Biden’s escalating rhetoric against Trump supporters, accusing them of embracing “semi-fascism” and being a threat to America, will make these voters even harder to reach in polling.
The logic behind this claim is that by attacking Trump voters and trying to normalize the idea that a Trump voter is some sort of fascist to be shunned, that Republicans who consider themselves Trump supporters avoid talking to pollsters.
In both 2016 and 2020, the shy Trump voter was a real thing, as Trump and the GOP outperformed polls by at least a couple of percentage points and even by a larger amount in battleground states. If one recalls, Biden was supposed to cruise to victory in 2020 with polls showing him with large out of the margin of error polling leads in places like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Arizona. As it turns out, Trump was only a few thousand votes away from winning in several of those states. Trump also ended up winning in Ohio and Florida by wider than polled averages.
Of all the states in 2020, only Georgia seemed to be a place where Trump and the GOP did not overperform the polls.
Now, the argument remains that Trump is not on the ballot and that might change things. That many Trump voters only come out for Trump? Time will tell if that is a valid argument. But one thing I would not count on right now is the idea that the polling is "skewed" towards the GOP.
38 comments:
Polling currently favors Republicans at least in the House, but Democrats are gaining.
After three years of litigated delay, another set of walls is finally closing in on Trump.
Know what it is?
So Reverend...
Is your intention to try to change the subject of every thread into the obsession of Trump and the FBI?
If that is the case then we can go back to having you and Roger spam the Legacy blog for your own enjoyment.
This is about the entire "Ultra-Maga" attacks and how it makes people uneasy to talk to pollsters. Read the story. It makes sense. If you do not want to read the story and comment on the story... then what is the point?
Blogger Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...
After three years of litigated delay, another set of walls is finally closing in on Trump.
Know what it is?
Trump joined the North American Man-Boy Lincoln Association and he's grooming pre-pubescent boys for YOU, pederast?
In both 2016 and 2020, the shy Trump voter was a real thing, as Trump and the GOP outperformed polls by at least a couple of percentage points and even by a larger amount in battleground states.
This is real. Every pollster who called my house during both elections cycles was told unequivocally that my household was voting Democrat.
And I'm certain that I'm not alone.
If that is the case then we can go back to having you and Roger spam the Legacy blog for your own enjoyment.
Let the legacy hospice blog be the penalty box for those who refuse to comply.
On topic:
If Trump is the nominee, that will hurt the GOP.
If Trump is not the nominee, that will hurt the GOP.
Win win for the Dems!
RNC Research nailed it. Pretty brutal.
Tonight, Biden said those who think he is unfit for office should just “watch” him.
Let’s roll the tape.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1571691426051723264
RNC Research nailed it. Pretty brutal.
Tonight, Biden said those who think he is unfit for office should just “watch” him.
Let’s roll the tape.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1571691426051723264
Blogger Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...
On topic:
If Trump is the nominee, that will hurt the GOP.
If Trump is not the nominee, that will hurt the GOP.
Hmmm during midterms huh? Is he running for a seat in FL?
Dumbass
FBI labeled veteran-led disaster organization a 'terror' group over government criticism, whistleblower says
Thu, September 15, 2022 at 3:27 PM·4 min read
The FBI was accused of falsely designating a veteran-led emergency prevention organization and its founder as facilitators of domestic terror, according to a whistleblower complaint made public via a letter from the top Republican on the House Judiciary Committee.
In the letter, ranking member Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, said the FBI associated American Contingency with domestic terrorism despite its own investigation proving otherwise in an effort to "advance a misleading political agenda."
"American Contingency is a company founded by former U.S. servicemember Mike Glover, who has publicly rejected the FBI’s accusations that he is a terrorist and has described American Contingency’s charitable work on behalf of communities devastated by natural disasters," Jordan said in the letter addressed to FBI Director Christopher Wray.
According to the letter, the FBI maintained a terror designation on American Contingency despite thoroughly investigating the organization and its founder.
https://news.yahoo.com/fbi-labeled-veteran-led-disaster-192729287.html
KansasDem.
Joe Failure ,shifting debt from the adults that signed for it for thier college to the low income and middle Income earners was exposed as wholly Unconstitutional by Scott Pelley.
Thank you Scott & 60 minutes.
** Correction **
On topic:
If Biden is the nominee, that will hurt the Democrats.
If Biden is not the nominee, that will hurt the Democrats.
FACT CHECK - TRUE
Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) and Zoe Lofgren (D-CA) are introducing a bill designed to reduce the chances of another misguided attempt to overturn election results like the dishonest attempt mounted by former President Donald Trump last year.
Liz Cheney Introduces Bill to Avoid Repeat of January 6
September 19, 2022 at 4:10 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 13 Comments
https://politicalwire.com/2022/09/19/liz-cheney-introduces-bill-to-avoid-repeat-of-january-6/
bubble boy is off-topic again
but on his knees with Goddard
as alweays
btw I saw Abbot now has an eleven point lead over Beto in the latest Texas poll.
Much tighter than I expected
Must be the abortion and Martha's Vineyard effect
ROFLMFAO !!!
KansasDem.
Bidenomics has killed the US Housing Market.
US Home Builders Confidence drops for 9th straight month.
Blogger Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...
Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) and Zoe Lofgren (D-CA) are introducing a bill designed to reduce the chances of another misguided attempt to overturn election results like the dishonest attempt mounted by former President Donald Trump last year.
Makes sense. Trump's challenge was completely constitutional, so let two imbeciles introduce a bill to prevent that.
Stage IV TDS - the struggle is real.
Trump emphatically told several people that under no circumstances was he going to leave the White House after the last election.
But then he changed his mind and made a cowardly exit. Why?
Was it because defenders of the Constitution made it clear to him that he would be shackled and frog marched out?
FACT CHECK: PENDING REVIEW
Yeah Rat...
The Reverend seems oblivious to the idea that if what Trump did was "against the law" as is being suggested....
There would be no need for a new law to prevent it from happening again. The need for a new law "literally" proves that the actions were legal at the time.
I think it would be easier for the Democrats to pass a law that makes Donald Trump illegal in general.
Blogger Honest, decent, truthful Rev. said...
Trump emphatically told several people that under no circumstances was he going to leave the White House after the last election.
Several people.
Several.
"With knowledge of the matter."
Right.
Fact Check: Pure, unadulterated bullshit.
I think it would be easier for the Democrats to pass a law that makes Donald Trump illegal in general.
Disqualifying him from running in '24 is the next closest thing.
I'm of the opinion that Trump would be easier to beat than DeSantis. Ron doesn't have nearly the baggage, he's better educated, a Harvard lawyer, a bronze star recipient in the Navy, better on the environment, actually supports moderate action against global warming, he's a former member of congress, he's only 44, and a far better and smarter politician. Dems should want Trump, not try so hard to disqualify him.
BTW, TX Governor Abbott is a former TX Attorney General and former Justice on the TX Supreme Court. He knows the law better than these howling idiots in the media and dem party claiming various illegalities.
KansasDem.
I agree with Myballsinthewoodsagain.
DeSantis is much harder to beat.
KansasDem.
"Federal Court rules Big Tech has no 'freewheeling First Amendment right to censor'"
Oh I sort of want Trump to be the candidate.
So does Joe Biden.
But as I said,
If Trump is nominated, it will be bad for the GOP.
If Trump is not nominated, it will be bad for the GOP.
_____________
Another matter:
It's complicated, but the framers of our Constitution purposefully set up a contingency whereby if the masses ever were to elect someone who was obviously unfit for the office, electors could step in and keep that individual from attaining the presidency.
That has never happened thus far in American history, but if there ever was a time when it SHOULD have happened, it was with the election of the megalomaniac Donald Trump.
But it did not.
At one point after Jan 6, Trump's own Cabinet were seriously considering using the 25th Amendment, another safeguard established for the same purpose, to remove him from office.
What is now needed is a clarification of the somewhat obscure language of the elecoral college provision to make it impossible for another megalomaniac like Trump to try to use it to overthrow a legitimate vote of our citizenry.
___
Lawyers can express all this more clearly, elegantly, and precisely than I have.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cw07vCtSVCk
The QAnon megalomaniac in person.
Q; What wears a MAGA hat and a QAnon lapel pin?
A: Donald J. Trump
Oh I sort of want Biden to be the candidate.
So does Donald Trump.
But as I said,
If Biden is the nominee, that will hurt the Democrats.
If Biden is not the nominee, that will hurt the Democrats.
House Judiciary GOP
Letter to Wray:
https://twitter.com/JudiciaryGOP/status/1572020677087236096
#BREAKING: New whistleblower information reveals that the FBI is moving agents off of child sexual abuse investigations to instead pursue political investigations.
The whistleblower recounted being told that “child sexual abuse investigations were no longer an FBI priority.”
Biden's brown shirts
pedophiles are smiling
Another matter:
It's complicated, but the framers of our Constitution purposefully set up a contingency whereby if the masses ever were to elect someone who was obviously unfit for the office, electors could step in and keep that individual from attaining the presidency.
That has never happened thus far in American history, but if there ever was a time when it SHOULD have happened, it was with the election of the corrupt and compromised Joe Biden.
Wearing the "D" for democrat. obviously
probably a Beto supporter
VIDEO:
https://twitter.com/DarwinAwards_/status/1571953948252315649
at least he turned his gun in
ROFLMFAO !!!
LOL
So solly, I don't think Joe will be running in the next election.
Why does Commander-In-Thief so often copycat James? Disguised admiration?
Anonymous DisHonest, indecent, untruthful and ignorant Rev.said...
Why does Commander-In-Thief so often copycat James? Disguised admiration?
Disguised ?
That would be the POS "pastor"
who only fools himself
ROFLMFAO !!!
AJC poll gives Republicans the edge in most races
The latest Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll paints a bleak picture for Georgia Democrats in November, with every statewide candidate aside from U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock facing a sizable deficit less than two months before the election.
https://www.ajc.com/politics/ajc-poll-gives-republicans-the-edge-in-most-races/CPN7VPBV5VAADJZ77I7VBPPRGY/
WOW a very liberal poll points a "bleak picture" for democrats.
Just like what just happened to Beto
sure doesn't fit the liberal narrative they have fraudulently been pushing
Kemp 50, Abrams 42
Walker 46, Warnock 44
Post a Comment